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Lynx @ Storm - 9/11/19
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Who will win this game?
Lynx
50%
 50%  [ 8 ]
Storm
50%
 50%  [ 8 ]
Total Votes : 16

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SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 09/12/19 11:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
And if you looked at the roster at the beginning of the season and expected 20 wins, you have unrealistic expectations and are going to go through life severely disappointed most of the time.


This year's Lynx roster looked better to me than last year's so I expected them to be better, except I thought Fowles was capable of being an all-WNBA center this year and I was wrong, and Shepard got injured, so to be that counts for about 2 wins right there.


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 1:10 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
ClayK wrote:
On offer: Jordin Canada is a very similar player to Danielle Robinson.

Canada, of course, will at least shoot threes, but defenders still play two or three steps off of her.

Canada is a much better finisher than Robinson with better touch at the net.

Robinson can make up for players playing off her with her speed and burst, but she misses way too many layups once she gets past the defenders.

Obviously Canada will become even better if she can add at least a semi-reliable 3pt shot, but she's got a solid skill set to make up for not having one.

And while defenses who gameplan properly and implement it correctly should just give Canada the three, at least she's willing to stand at the arc and occasionally take one. Defenders will instinctively pay at least some attention to her. When Robinson stands off the ball barely 15ft from the hoop - which she does repeatedly - it compresses everything. Players like Sims have less room to drive, Fowles has an extra player on top of her in the paint, defensive switches and rotations get easier - it goes on and on. It's not just that poitential point you give up every time she pulls up from 15ft instead of 21, it's everything else.

I'd be a little surprised if she's back in Minnesota next year. She takes too much stuff off the table and these days doesn't put enough back to make up for it.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 8:32 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
justintyme wrote:
ClayK wrote:
On offer: Jordin Canada is a very similar player to Danielle Robinson.

Canada, of course, will at least shoot threes, but defenders still play two or three steps off of her.

Canada is a much better finisher than Robinson with better touch at the net.

Robinson can make up for players playing off her with her speed and burst, but she misses way too many layups once she gets past the defenders.

Obviously Canada will become even better if she can add at least a semi-reliable 3pt shot, but she's got a solid skill set to make up for not having one.

And while defenses who gameplan properly and implement it correctly should just give Canada the three, at least she's willing to stand at the arc and occasionally take one. Defenders will instinctively pay at least some attention to her. When Robinson stands off the ball barely 15ft from the hoop - which she does repeatedly - it compresses everything. Players like Sims have less room to drive, Fowles has an extra player on top of her in the paint, defensive switches and rotations get easier - it goes on and on. It's not just that poitential point you give up every time she pulls up from 15ft instead of 21, it's everything else.

I'd be a little surprised if she's back in Minnesota next year. She takes too much stuff off the table and these days doesn't put enough back to make up for it.

Agreed. It's seemed to me that Reeve had grown increasingly frustrated with her lack of development on those fronts. I sense she really likes her defensive pressure and her personal attitude and commitment, but her lack of 3pt shooting her her failure to finish has just become too much with the way the roster is constructed. Especially since they went out and got Sims, who is pretty much the same, except shoot a little better and finishes a little better. But if you pair the two of them up, you have two guards that you can dare to shoot while clogging the paint and taking away passing lanes to Fowles, driving lanes for the guards, and cutting lanes for people like Collier. It leads to those offensive possessions where the ball gets passed around harmlessly on the perimeter, or someone tries to dribble it into traffic and gets it stripped, or they try to force the ball into the post through a small window and it causes the inevitable turnover.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 8:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
And if you looked at the roster at the beginning of the season and expected 20 wins, you have unrealistic expectations and are going to go through life severely disappointed most of the time.


This year's Lynx roster looked better to me than last year's so I expected them to be better, except I thought Fowles was capable of being an all-WNBA center this year and I was wrong, and Shepard got injured, so to be that counts for about 2 wins right there.


They lost Maya Moore, Whalen, and Brunson, and Augustus and KCK were injured from the get-go. And Fowles is another year older at a point in careers where that starts to actually matter.

They added some nice pieces, but at the start of the season you expected Sims to turn her game around, Dantas to play better than she ever has before, Brown to prove to be a diamond in the rough, and Collier to play at a top 10-WNBA level? All of that is what it took for the Lynx to simply make up for the pieces they lost from last year.

Yeah, I looked at the roster and was nowhere close to thinking they had 20 wins. Even after the moves, I was thinking lottery. Once they started playing I thought they could hit 20 wins, but then the injuries to Dantas and Shepard immediately dropped that down. 18 was a good season for what they had, and it represented getting the best out of the pieces they put out there.



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Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 12:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
And if you looked at the roster at the beginning of the season and expected 20 wins, you have unrealistic expectations and are going to go through life severely disappointed most of the time.


This year's Lynx roster looked better to me than last year's so I expected them to be better, except I thought Fowles was capable of being an all-WNBA center this year and I was wrong, and Shepard got injured, so to be that counts for about 2 wins right there.


They lost Maya Moore, Whalen, and Brunson, and Augustus and KCK were injured from the get-go. And Fowles is another year older at a point in careers where that starts to actually matter.

They added some nice pieces, but at the start of the season you expected Sims to turn her game around, Dantas to play better than she ever has before, Brown to prove to be a diamond in the rough, and Collier to play at a top 10-WNBA level? All of that is what it took for the Lynx to simply make up for the pieces they lost from last year.

Yeah, I looked at the roster and was nowhere close to thinking they had 20 wins. Even after the moves, I was thinking lottery. Once they started playing I thought they could hit 20 wins, but then the injuries to Dantas and Shepard immediately dropped that down. 18 was a good season for what they had, and it represented getting the best out of the pieces they put out there.


When are y'all going to stop humoring dude? Haven't they made it clear that they're doing a schitck, and that they're not going to break character, no matter what?



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SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 1:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Silky Johnson wrote:
justintyme wrote:
They lost Maya Moore, Whalen, and Brunson, and Augustus and KCK were injured from the get-go. And Fowles is another year older at a point in careers where that starts to actually matter.

They added some nice pieces, but at the start of the season you expected Sims to turn her game around, Dantas to play better than she ever has before, Brown to prove to be a diamond in the rough, and Collier to play at a top 10-WNBA level? All of that is what it took for the Lynx to simply make up for the pieces they lost from last year.

Yeah, I looked at the roster and was nowhere close to thinking they had 20 wins. Even after the moves, I was thinking lottery. Once they started playing I thought they could hit 20 wins, but then the injuries to Dantas and Shepard immediately dropped that down. 18 was a good season for what they had, and it represented getting the best out of the pieces they put out there.


When are y'all going to stop humoring dude? Haven't they made it clear that they're doing a schitck, and that they're not going to break character, no matter what?


Replacing well past-prime, ready to retire Whalen, with Sims/D-Rob was upgrade to me. Lexie Brown upgrade over Wright who did nothing last year. Brunson wasn't a major factor much of last season, so Dantas and Shepard make up for losing her (and having no backup production much of season except end-of-career Larkins), and Collier I was hoping would live up to the hype and be in contention for ROY. If the Mercury once went 20-14 the year when Taurasi sat out so I was thinking Lynx could do same without Maya, but a top team (but obviously not win the title).


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PostPosted: 09/13/19 2:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The team brought a bunch of people in who had never played together, and replaced a team that had played together for years. Whalen, while past her prime, was still a primary ball handler with high basketball IQ who could keep an offense moving and not force the ball or make bad passes. There had been hope that DRob might be able to become the primary handler, but there was no evidence of that last year and that has never been Sims' strength. Sims actually exceeded expectations on that front this year, and she was not all that great.

Brunson actually played good minutes last year, shooting well from 3 and was a key piece defensively, though not as shut down in years past. But there was nothing in Dantas' game that should have screamed "3pt threat" nor as good a rebounder/defender. At best, most would have thought her coming in as an even level tradeoff would have been reasonable.

Sure, Shepard and Collier looked promising, but they were rookies. At best you can hope they will pan out. Having high level expectations for them coming in and making an instant impact on the team is out of sync with what rookies typically do.

And again, you expected them to actually gain wins by subtracting Maya Moore from the team. That makes zero sense, and is the very definition of an unreasonable expectation.



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SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 3:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
And again, you expected them to actually gain wins by subtracting Maya Moore from the team. That makes zero sense, and is the very definition of an unreasonable expectation.


I never said that the Lynx would gain wins by subtracting Maya. All your lack of expectations proves is that fans you are way too megative/pessimistic when it comes too the Lynx instead of being positive/realistic like me. Razz


justintyme



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 4:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
And again, you expected them to actually gain wins by subtracting Maya Moore from the team. That makes zero sense, and is the very definition of an unreasonable expectation.


I never said that the Lynx would gain wins by subtracting Maya. All your lack of expectations proves is that fans you are way too megative/pessimistic when it comes too the Lynx instead of being positive/realistic like me. Razz

If you expected them to be a 20 win team you expected them to gain wins.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 5:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don’t know why SpaceJunkie’s expectations of this year’s team is worth lengthy squabbling. Last season, they underachieved record-wise because of various good reasons. Plus, I remember the Lynx lost two games on last second shots (LAS, ATL) where in both incidences the player was guarded by Augustus. They should have easily finished last season with a 20-14 record even through all the problems.

Here’s my summary of the 2018 season and my prediction for the 2019 season on 2/06/19.
Shades wrote:
It was a very compacted season, which works much more against the older teams. Maya went from Euroleague playoff finals to WNBA with no break. Literally none. Fowles was playing through injury half the season. Brunson was out near the end of the season, and Reeve struggled to find another decent backup post after Kizer and Miyem ended up being busts. Reeve finally figured out that Whalen was a net liability. Oh, and DRob ended up getting a fairly serious injury too. I’m the only one who can remember all this?

With Fowles healthy and Maya rested in a normal season, they would have been contenders like they have always been.

Now, if everyone stays healthy and Reeve can make one more good FA move (besides Dantas) and at least one good draft pick, I’m calling that this year’s team will have a better record than last year’s team (18-16).


This was after Maya announced she was sitting out 2019 and after the announced signings of Christmas and Dantas but before the Sims (huge), Talbot, and Coates signings.
http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=95019&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=388

Check out who agreed with me!

So if I’m predicting better than a 18-16 record on 2/06/19, a prediction of 20+win season right before the season with the new signings and announcing Fowles and DRob as fully healthy is perfectly reasonable in my eyes. Christmas’s condition was kept under wraps, probably because it’s embarrassing to sign an unhealthy player to a 3 year guaranteed contract. If anyone truly thought this Lynx team was headed to the lottery, that wasn’t very well thought out analysis in my eyes.



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Luuuc



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 6:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Silky Johnson wrote:
When are y'all going to stop humoring dude?

I don't get it either.
As soon as someone claims that taking an 18-16 team and then subtracting Maya Moore & Rebekkah Brunson - never mind all the others as well - should make the wins increase, that's when I make the "cuckoo" sound and keep scrolling.
But despite being composed of anti-matter, it's a still a WNBA conversation so anyone that way inclined is welcome to participate.
In this case I look at it as part of the end-of-season grieving process. People aren't suddenly ready for their team's season to be over. Especially people who support a team renowned for sustained success and whose alternative option might be to turn their minds to the T-Wolves.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 6:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Pretty sure that prediction assumes Brunson would be back (who played played at a high level until her injury) and that they would sign a top end FA. A healthy Christmas might have fit that bill...maybe. But at the start of the season she was injured and, yeah, no Brunson, no Augustus, no Christmas, and it's pretty fair to be thinking lottery.

Though, honestly, as most fans right before the season I may well have been caught up in off-season optimism. But there is a huge difference between having an optimistic outlook and having that be a set in stone expectation where if the team doesn't reach it, it was a failure of a season.

For instance, I am optimistic that the Vikings can go 12-4 this year. If they go 10-6 and make the playoffs, I am not going to say they failed to meet my expectations. If Cousins gets injured and misses the season, or half of the offensive line does, and they go 6-10, I would also say that is an expected result.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 6:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
Silky Johnson wrote:
When are y'all going to stop humoring dude?

I don't get it either.
As soon as someone claims that taking an 18-16 team and then subtracting Maya Moore & Rebekkah Brunson - never mind all the others as well - should make the wins increase, that's when I make the "cuckoo" sound and keep scrolling.
But despite being composed of anti-matter, it's a still a WNBA conversation so anyone that way inclined is welcome to participate.
In this case I look at it as part of the end-of-season grieving process. People aren't suddenly ready for their team's season to be over. Especially people who support a team renowned for sustained success and whose alternative option might be to turn their minds to the T-Wolves.


BUT ANDREW WIGGINS WON ROOKIE OF THE YEAR



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SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 8:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
Silky Johnson wrote:
When are y'all going to stop humoring dude?

I don't get it either.
As soon as someone claims that taking an 18-16 team and then subtracting Maya Moore & Rebekkah Brunson - never mind all the others as well - should make the wins increase, that's when I make the "cuckoo" sound and keep scrolling.


The Storm improved from 15 wins in 2016 to 18 wins in 2018 by subtracting Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart.
Maya Moore, Rebekkah Brunson, and Lindsay Whalen weren't that great last year, or the Lynx would've still been a top team.

According to my math:
2019 Dantas + 2019 Shepard = 2018 Brunson + Miyem + Kizer
Collier + Christmas + 1.5 wins = 2018 Maya
Sims + Brown = 2018 Whalen + 2018 Wright + 1.5 wins (I had expectations for Sims & Brown getting new starts on a new team)

And 2 extra wins by Lynx not being worn out by not having every player be old and barely having any useful bench players in a condensed season and players stepping up in absence of Maya. But Shepard missed most of the season, and Fowles stats went down this year. But Collier was even better than probably expected (according to WARP, win shares, or whatever, Collier was worth as much this year as Maya last year).




Last edited by SpaceJunkie on 09/14/19 11:16 am; edited 2 times in total
SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 8:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
BUT ANDREW WIGGINS WON ROOKIE OF THE YEAR


The was a meh rookie class. Though Mirotic and Nurkic are good players and Clarkson is alright.


Randy



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 8:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
BUT ANDREW WIGGINS WON ROOKIE OF THE YEAR


The was a meh rookie class. Though Mirotic and Nurkic are good players and Clarkson is alright.


Winning ROY is like winning a championship to fans of teams that know they will probably never win one.



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SpaceJunkie



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PostPosted: 09/13/19 8:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
BUT ANDREW WIGGINS WON ROOKIE OF THE YEAR


The was a meh rookie class. Though Mirotic and Nurkic are good players and Clarkson is alright.


Winning ROY is like winning a championship to fans of teams that know they will probably never win one.


For the Timberwolves, I don't recall much excitement over Wiggins winning ROY. (It's not like how we're going to throw a parade and have a banner-raising ceremony on the 2020 Home Opener in honor of Collier winning ROY. Okay, maybe not) The most exciting moments in Timberwolves history, I recall (not involving Kevin Garnett) were the Timberwolves winning the 2015 Draft Lottery followed by one of our players winning the Slam Dunk Contest.


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PostPosted: 09/14/19 12:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Luuuc wrote:
Silky Johnson wrote:
When are y'all going to stop humoring dude?

I don't get it either.
As soon as someone claims that taking an 18-16 team and then subtracting Maya Moore & Rebekkah Brunson - never mind all the others as well - should make the wins increase, that's when I make the "cuckoo" sound and keep scrolling.
But despite being composed of anti-matter, it's a still a WNBA conversation so anyone that way inclined is welcome to participate.
In this case I look at it as part of the end-of-season grieving process. People aren't suddenly ready for their team's season to be over. Especially people who support a team renowned for sustained success and whose alternative option might be to turn their minds to the T-Wolves.



And instead of once an hour, this cuckoo comes out every minute to strut the idiocy.



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PostPosted: 09/15/19 9:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
And if you looked at the roster at the beginning of the season and expected 20 wins, you have unrealistic expectations and are going to go through life severely disappointed most of the time.


This year's Lynx roster looked better to me than last year's so I expected them to be better, except I thought Fowles was capable of being an all-WNBA center this year and I was wrong, and Shepard got injured, so to be that counts for about 2 wins right there.


FWIW - it turns out 20 wins was reasonable expectation. According to Basketball Reference the Lynx expected wins this year was 20 based on the Pythagorean formula.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/teams/MIN/2019.html



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 09/15/19 11:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
And if you looked at the roster at the beginning of the season and expected 20 wins, you have unrealistic expectations and are going to go through life severely disappointed most of the time.


This year's Lynx roster looked better to me than last year's so I expected them to be better, except I thought Fowles was capable of being an all-WNBA center this year and I was wrong, and Shepard got injured, so to be that counts for about 2 wins right there.


FWIW - it turns out 20 wins was reasonable expectation. According to Basketball Reference the Lynx expected wins this year was 20 based on the Pythagorean formula.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/teams/MIN/2019.html

That's based upon points scored versus points given up. Not preseason expectations. This suggests that the team had a few games break poorly for them and played better overall than their record indicates.



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PostPosted: 09/15/19 11:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
Randy wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
And if you looked at the roster at the beginning of the season and expected 20 wins, you have unrealistic expectations and are going to go through life severely disappointed most of the time.


This year's Lynx roster looked better to me than last year's so I expected them to be better, except I thought Fowles was capable of being an all-WNBA center this year and I was wrong, and Shepard got injured, so to be that counts for about 2 wins right there.


FWIW - it turns out 20 wins was reasonable expectation. According to Basketball Reference the Lynx expected wins this year was 20 based on the Pythagorean formula.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/teams/MIN/2019.html

That's based upon points scored versus points given up. Not preseason expectations. This suggests that the team had a few games break poorly for them and played better overall than their record indicates.


I never said it was a pre-season expectation. I thought everyone knew what the Pythagorean formula was. The point is that is someone expected a 20 win season, and at the end of the season the "expected W" is 20 it seems that pre-season expectation is buttressed. In fact, an actual 18 win season suggests a pre-season forecast of 20 was reasonable. I think the "Expected W/L" measures how well a team does in close games. Atlanta's expected W/L last year was only 19 because they won a lot of close games.



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PostPosted: 09/15/19 12:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
justintyme wrote:
Randy wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:
justintyme wrote:
And if you looked at the roster at the beginning of the season and expected 20 wins, you have unrealistic expectations and are going to go through life severely disappointed most of the time.


This year's Lynx roster looked better to me than last year's so I expected them to be better, except I thought Fowles was capable of being an all-WNBA center this year and I was wrong, and Shepard got injured, so to be that counts for about 2 wins right there.


FWIW - it turns out 20 wins was reasonable expectation. According to Basketball Reference the Lynx expected wins this year was 20 based on the Pythagorean formula.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/teams/MIN/2019.html

That's based upon points scored versus points given up. Not preseason expectations. This suggests that the team had a few games break poorly for them and played better overall than their record indicates.


I never said it was a pre-season expectation. I thought everyone knew what the Pythagorean formula was. The point is that is someone expected a 20 win season, and at the end of the season the "expected W" is 20 it seems that pre-season expectation is buttressed. In fact, an actual 18 win season suggests a pre-season forecast of 20 was reasonable. I think the "Expected W/L" measures how well a team does in close games. Atlanta's expected W/L last year was only 19 because they won a lot of close games.

That's outcome based thinking. It's saying a prediction/expectation is reasonable just because it came true.

If I predict right now that next year the Miami Dolphins will win the Super Bowl, I'm not making a reasonable prediction. If they suddenly make a ton of moves after I made that prediction and people step up their games beyond what they previously had shown, and their draft picks just blow everyone out of the water as rookies and they end up actually winning it...it doesn't make my prediction any more reasonable.

All season long the narrative from just about everyone has been that the Lynx have exceeded expectations. There is a reason for that.



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