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If the WNBA's 2020 Season is Truncated/Cancelled, then...?
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Stormeo



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 1:44 am    ::: If the WNBA's 2020 Season is Truncated/Cancelled, then...? Reply Reply with quote

I know there's already tfan's thread about if the 2020 season will happen or not, but I just wanted to make a separate thread for us to put out our evolving ideas/beliefs/theories on what this season and/or next season & beyond will look like, given that this coronavirus pandemic at this point will almost certainly affect the upcoming season in some way/shape/form. The news is changing everyday, so your thoughts/imagination might already be changing everyday based on what comes up; It's still early enough in this timeline to where absolutely nothing is set in stone.

Topics here could still include:
    Do you predict that the 2020 season starts on time, starts delayed but still fits in all 36 games + playoffs, starts delayed enough to where the season gets truncated, or gets flat-out cancelled?

    If you think it'll start late, when do you think it'll start?

But topics could also include:
    How do you envision the 2021 season if the 2020 season gets completely cancelled? With regards to Free Agency, Franchise statuses, Player statuses, the League's status, Commissioner/Front office decisions, etc.

    And if the 2020 season is cancelled, how does the League handle the Draft? There probably can't feasibly be one big SuperDraft since 2021 picks have already been traded around, but would there possibly be a SuperDraft Day where two different drafts (2020's and 2021's) take place? Shocked

    Have we already seen the last of certain players? (I mean, let's hope not!)

    What do you predict will happen with the players' salaries if the 2020 season is truncated or cancelled? And what could the resulting consequences be of that?

    How should this particular league best go about addressing a "force majeure" clause on its next CBA? (Since y'all are saying it doesn't have one, despite the NBA having one)

    Does this kind of hopefully-only-once-in-a-lifetime event lead the League to make any other provisions for future seasons?

Amongst other relevant topics/major questions. There's just so much we don't know... Which means there's even more that we could speculate upon. Razz
Again, y'all better stay safe & healthy throughout this crisis!



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Randy



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 7:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I don't think the season will be completely cancelled, but if it is, life will go on. If there ever is a time cancelling a season would hurt the least it is 2020. First, the Olympics always makes a mess of the WNBA season by splitting it, payers not showing, stars taking a few more weeks off to practice with Team USA or their NTs. Second, even if sports get restarted (talk now is July or August before things get back to normal) - people may still feel reluctant to games again. With so many people losing their jobs, the priority will be getting back on their feet, not spending money on sports. Plus, the W claims to lose money, so what can it hurt to lose less for a season?

Having said all that, I don't think it will happen. Even in the most dire situation, I think some sort of grand experiment might happen - say a WNBA tournament sometime late in the season. Maybe held at one city (e.g. LV, NY or LA). The whole point would be to make a splash and remind people there is still a WNBA.

The more optimistic view would be the virus fades quickly with warm weather, the season starts maybe sometime in late June/Early July. Maybe 1/3 of the games are lost, but everything goes per normal.

BTW - I would say the biggest unknown is whether players get paid in a cancelled season. My reading of the CBA is that as long a player shows for all the games the team plays they get paid everything. If there are no games - there seems to be no provision. I could something like players with guaranteed contracts get paid, while those w/o would get waived or paid at the team option. For example - Glory Johnson has a one year non-guaranteed deal. She gets waived. However, maybe Billings gets paid because the Dream don't lose her rights. (JMWG).

Finally, with all the extra time nothing to do maybe the argument about the post players in the Indiana game last year will finally get resolved, along a lot of other longstanding arguments..... Razz



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CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 10:15 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
BTW - I would say the biggest unknown is whether players get paid in a cancelled season. My reading of the CBA is that as long a player shows for all the games the team plays they get paid everything. If there are no games - there seems to be no provision. I could something like players with guaranteed contracts get paid, while those w/o would get waived or paid at the team option.


I posted this yesterday in the "2020 WNBA Season?" thread, but I will re-post here, as I find it interesting that the WNBA does not have a force majeure clause like the NBA, nor does it have the NBA's provision for a doomsday scenario. According to Article XXXIX, Section 5 in the CBA, players lose 1/92.6 of their salary for every game missed as a result of a force majeure event, referring to vents or conditions that make it impossible for the NBA to perform its obligation under the CBA.

NBA vs. WNBA – Force Majeure, Number of Games to be Played

Executive Summary

According to Article XXXIX, Section 5 in the CBA, NBA players lose 1/92.6 of their salary for every game missed as a result of a force majeure event -- this refers to events or conditions that make it impossible for the NBA to perform its obligation under the CBA.

The WNBA has no such provision. The discretion to increase or decrease games played by teams during the season (preseason, regular season, playoffs) belongs to the league (subject to certain limitations – for example, preseason games will not exceed four per team; regular season games will not exceed 44 per team).

CBA EXCERPTS

WNBA
ARTICLE XXXIII
EXPANSION, CONTRACTION, ROSTERS, NUMBER OF GAMES, SEASON FOOTPRINT

Section 5. Number of Games.

The WNBA shall have the discretion to (i) increase or decrease the number of games to be played by Teams during the pre-season, Regular Season, and/or the playoffs and (ii) after consultation with the Players Association, change the playoff format (including the number of teams that qualify for the playoffs) provided, however, that: (x) the number of pre-season games in any Season covered by this Agreement (which, for clarity, shall not include any games that are part of a special competition or tournament even if such games count toward the Team’s Regular Season record) shall not exceed four (4) per Team; (y) the number of Regular Season games in any Season covered by this Agreement (which, for clarity, shall not include any games that are part of a special competition or tournament even if such games count toward the Team’s Regular Season record) shall not exceed forty-four (44) per Team; and (iii) in any Season of this Agreement, if the maximum number of possible playoff games increases over the maximum number of possible playoff games in the immediately preceding Season and any such increase results in a maximum possible number of playoff games that is greater than the maximum number of possible playoff games in any prior Season covered hereunder, the merit bonuses related to playoff achievement of a Team set forth in Article IX hereof shall be increased by ten (10) percent.


Section 7. Season Schedule.

(a) Each Season hereunder shall begin no earlier than April 1 and end no later than October 31, subject to reasonable adjustments made by the WNBA in its sole discretion related to FIBA competitions occurring adjacent to, or during, such Season.

https://wnbpa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/WNBA-WNBPA-CBA-2020-2027.pdf



NBA
ARTICLE XXXIX
TERM OF AGREEMENT

Section 5. Termination by NBA/Force Majeure.

(a) “Force Majeure Event” shall mean the occurrence of any of the following events or conditions, provided that such event or condition either (i) makes it impossible for the NBA to perform its obligations under this Agreement, or (ii) frustrates the underlying purpose of this Agreement, or (iii) makes it economically impracticable for the NBA to perform its obligations under this Agreement: wars or war-like action (whether actual or threatened and whether conventional or other, including, but not limited to, chemical or biological wars or war-like action); sabotage, terrorism or threats of sabotage or terrorism; explosions; epidemics; weather or natural disasters, including, but not limited to, fires, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornados, storms or earthquakes; and any governmental order or action (civil or military); provided, however, that none of the foregoing enumerated events or conditions is within the reasonable control of the NBA or an NBA Team.

(b) In addition to any other rights a Team or the NBA may have by contract or by law, if a Force Majeure Event occurs and, as a result, one or more Teams are unable to play one or more games (whether Exhibition, Regular Season, or Playoff games), then, for each missed Exhibition, Regular Season, or Playoff game during such period (the “Force Majeure Period”) that was not rescheduled and replayed, the Compensation payable to each player who was on the roster of a Team that was unable to play one or more games during the Force Majeure Period shall be reduced by 1/92.6th of the player’s Compensation for the Season(s) covering the Force Majeure Period. For purposes of the foregoing calculation, and notwithstanding the actual number of games that any Team played, was scheduled to play, or could have played during the Seasons(s) affected by the Force Majeure Event, each Team shall be deemed to play five (5) Exhibition games, eighty-two (82) Regular Season games, and 5.6 Playoff games during each such Season.

(c) In the event that Section 5(b) above applies, the applicable Compensation reduction from each player shall be withheld by the player’s Team from the first Compensation payment (or payments, if the first such payment is insufficient to satisfy the reduction) that is (or are) due or to become due to such player following the commencement of the Force Majeure Period (whether under the Player Contract that was in existence at the commencement of the Force Majeure Period or any subsequent Player Contract between the player and the Team). If such Compensation payment (or payments) is (or are) insufficient to cover the Compensation reduction required by Section 5(b) above, then either (i) the player shall promptly pay the difference directly to the Team (“old Team”), or (ii) if he subsequently enters into a Player Contract with, or is traded to, another NBA Team (“new Team”), such difference shall be withheld from the first available Compensation payment (or payments, if the first such payment is insufficient to satisfy the remaining reduction) that is (or are) due to the player from the new Team and shall be remitted by the new Team to the old Team.

(d) Upon the occurrence of a Force Majeure Event satisfying the terms of Section 5(a) above, the NBA shall have the right to terminate this Agreement as of the sixtieth (60th) day following delivery to the Players Association of a written notice of termination, which must be delivered to the Players Association within sixty (60) days of the Force Majeure Event. During the sixty-day period following delivery of such written notice of termination, the NBA and the Players Association shall engage in good faith negotiations for the purpose of entering into a successor agreement, and during such period the provisions of Article XXX shall remain in full force and effect.


https://cosmic-s3.imgix.net/3c7a0a50-8e11-11e9-875d-3d44e94ae33f-2017-NBA-NBPA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement.pdf


Randy



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 10:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'd seen that before, and don't feel it gives an answer. TBH it seems like very poor legal work not to have a force majeure clause. What is your take on this issue? Do players get paid if there is no season? Also, I would suggest you look at the standard player contract.



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CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 10:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
I'd seen that before, and don't feel it gives an answer. TBH it seems like very poor legal work not to have a force majeure clause. What is your take on this issue? Do players get paid if there is no season? Also, I would suggest you look at the standard player contract.


I took a quick glance at the standard player contract and did not see a definitive answer, but I must admit to spending very little time on the issue.

Will check back later today.


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PostPosted: 03/17/20 10:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I didn't either.



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 10:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

If we assume that coronavirus has run its course, in terms of being a pandemic (though it will still be around) by July, and further assume the Olympics take place, it would seem to be the WNBA will have a post-Olympics season.

What will make it strange is that baseball will likely extend its season a bit to get in more games, so football, baseball and the WNBA will all be on at the same time -- with the NBA training camps opening in mid-October.

My guess is that the league decides to make the best of it and go head-to-head with football for a month or so, but everything has to be over by the time the NBA regular season begins.



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ChasingRatDogmaSalade



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 11:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

What would folks like teams to do to stay connected with fans during this unscheduled break?


toad455



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 11:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
If we assume that coronavirus has run its course, in terms of being a pandemic (though it will still be around) by July, and further assume the Olympics take place, it would seem to be the WNBA will have a post-Olympics season.

What will make it strange is that baseball will likely extend its season a bit to get in more games, so football, baseball and the WNBA will all be on at the same time -- with the NBA training camps opening in mid-October.

My guess is that the league decides to make the best of it and go head-to-head with football for a month or so, but everything has to be over by the time the NBA regular season begins.


It really depends what the NBA does. A July-September WNBA regular season with playoffs in October. NBA playoffs begin in July and end in August. NBA regular season(2020-2021) begins slightly later.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 12:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ChasingRatDogmaSalade wrote:
What would folks like teams to do to stay connected with fans during this unscheduled break?


I just discovered that I can still log into League and find last season's games. It would be really great if the Aces could keep this going until the season starts. (In prior years at some point you could no longer get games from the prior season.) It would give us games to watch, argue about etc. Maybe LV could come up with a list of the best games to watch from last season or something like that.



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PostPosted: 03/17/20 12:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ChasingRatDogmaSalade wrote:
What would folks like teams to do to stay connected with fans during this unscheduled break?


--- Introductory messages/videos from a team's newly acquired players

--- Video messages from players to season ticket holders, with updates as to how they are doing, activities in which they are engaging to make it through COVID-19, etc.

--- Analysis of 2020 draft prospects


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PostPosted: 03/17/20 4:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think it will be cancelled. They keep showing two graphs to get the message that we need to “flatten the curve”. They don’t put a time period on either one. But I would guess both are long enough and severe enough that holding a WNBA season will be out of the question. And you have the issue that the virus could hang around and mutate and reinfect like the flu does each year. Vaccines won’t be out in time to save WNBA 2020.


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PostPosted: 03/17/20 8:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The biggest decision that's yet to be made is when and if the Tokyo Olympics happen.

If the Olympics get cancelled then the season needs to finish before the international season begins.

Dates at regular or alternate arenas could be tough to find if many events and games from other leagues need to be rescheduled.

I think the agreement between the league and players union can be amended if both sides agree should that be necessary.

If I had to make a guess (based on nothing) I'd guess this season will be cancelled. I don't think a short compressed season could / would go forward.


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PostPosted: 03/17/20 8:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, it would be an interesting discussion if the league said "we can reschedule the season, play all 36 games, pay everyone their whole salary, we'll find the venues if we need to, but it means the season isn't going to end until Christmas." Because if the US is playing by then, most of the 20-21 European seasons will probably be starting on time as well. Would the Players' Association want to agree to a rescheduling like that when at least half their members would like to be playing for someone else by October at the latest?



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 9:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Obviously a ton of uncertainty ...

I read something about the difference between "suppresion" -- which is what we're doing in Northern California by sheltering in place -- and "mitigation", which is less restrictive.

The issue with suppression is apparently that once shelter in place is lifted, there will be another surge of cases, which might or might not lead to another round of suppression. The goal is to figure out a way to preserve the health care system until a vaccine is developed and available in large quantities, and that obviously will take an unknown amount of time.

So it's hard to say how all this will play out, as it could take quite a while before large crowds are permitted again if suppression is followed by a surge, followed by suppression, etc.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 10:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Obviously a ton of uncertainty ...

I read something about the difference between "suppresion" -- which is what we're doing in Northern California by sheltering in place -- and "mitigation", which is less restrictive.

The issue with suppression is apparently that once shelter in place is lifted, there will be another surge of cases, which might or might not lead to another round of suppression. The goal is to figure out a way to preserve the health care system until a vaccine is developed and available in large quantities, and that obviously will take an unknown amount of time.

So it's hard to say how all this will play out, as it could take quite a while before large crowds are permitted again if suppression is followed by a surge, followed by suppression, etc.


China seems to have been pretty restrictive, and life there is getting back to normal. As yet there is no second surge. It would seem if the virus still around, the surge-suppression cycle would keep happening. There is a lot we don't know for sure.



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 11:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

And unless we wait a very long time, there's not going to be a point at which everything is absolutely 100% fine. So when do you re-start? When is it okay to start sports leagues again, is it without fans initially, in that case when do you start letting fans in etc. etc. It's all going to be judgement calls by somebody, unless someone discovers tomorrow that eating a cube of sugar a day works as a vaccine/cure.

Also, with the IOC saying today that they're still planning to host the Olympics on schedule, a bunch of athletes pointed out that even if everything is fine in four months, the disruption to their training and preparation right now is screwing a lot of things up. How much time do you need to give various sportspeople to get ready from the "okay, you can leave your homes and start living your lives fairly normally" to the "let's play sports!" stage?



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 4:03 pm    ::: 18 Months Reply Reply with quote

Experts are saying we are going to be dealing with this for 18 months at least.

The virus has already divided into two separate strains.

It ain’t good, guys. I would not be shocked to see NO sports for quite awhile.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 4:54 pm    ::: Re: 18 Months Reply Reply with quote

MuneravenMN wrote:
Experts are saying we are going to be dealing with this for 18 months at least.

The virus has already divided into two separate strains.

It ain’t good, guys. I would not be shocked to see NO sports for quite awhile.


We can't shut down the world for 18 months.

What will likely happen is people will mostly ignore the self isolation suggestions within a couple of weeks, maybe a month at the outside. Maybe a lot of people will die. But the country isn't going to be shut down past mid-April at the latest.



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 4:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I would be very surprised if the Olympics are held, and that may be the best chance of having a meaningful WNBA season. May 15 at this point seems nearly impossible, but a revised schedule starting around July 1 would allow for a 24-28 game season and a full playoff schedule. The NBA rescheduling could have some impact, but since their are only a few teams that play in the same arena as an NBA team that shouldn't be a big problem.

I would hope that the League is already actively considering these possibilities rather than just monitoring the situation.


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PostPosted: 03/18/20 5:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Olympics are now expected to be postponed for a year. Does give the WNBA some flexibility in the schedule with that three-week hiatus in August now. We could start mid-June, fill in some dates in August and end the season two weeks later. The one downside is we wouldn't get an All-Star Game in 2021.



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 5:30 pm    ::: Re: 18 Months Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
MuneravenMN wrote:
Experts are saying we are going to be dealing with this for 18 months at least.

The virus has already divided into two separate strains.

It ain’t good, guys. I would not be shocked to see NO sports for quite awhile.


We can't shut down the world for 18 months.

What will likely happen is people will mostly ignore the self isolation suggestions within a couple of weeks, maybe a month at the outside. Maybe a lot of people will die. But the country isn't going to be shut down past mid-April at the latest.


Unless a nationwide lockdown goes into effect like Italy & Spain, this is 100% true. The economic downfall of a lockdown will take years to recover from. In two days, 1 million people have applied for unemployment due to businesses closing. This will multiply by historical numbers if a lockdown happens. I can see sports leagues returning and playing in empty arenas(i.e. South Korea) by June and televising them(NBA, NHL, MLB, WNBA, NWSL).



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 7:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In area 51 justintyme provided this link which deals with modeling the crisis, one of the most credible studies out there apparently:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It makes a rather provocative statement:

"Stopping mass gatherings is predicted to have relatively little impact (results not shown) because the contact-time at such events is relatively small compared to the time spent at home, in schools or workplaces and in other community locations such as bars and restaurants."

This seems to be the opposite of what is generally believed - and the sports leagues were among the first to shut down operations.

If true, sports leagues arguably could start to play before things get fully "back to normal." However, such moves could be rather unpopular and subject the leagues to heavy criticism.

BTW - Neil Ferguson, the lead author of the study was interviewed on NBC Nightly New tonight and is at home sick, having just had his COV19 - test.



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 8:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:

"Stopping mass gatherings is predicted to have relatively little impact (results not shown) because the contact-time at such events is relatively small compared to the time spent at home, in schools or workplaces and in other community locations such as bars and restaurants."


I don't understand why they threw in the last two. In what way is contact at a bar or restaurant for a few hours more dangerous than contact sitting in the stands of an arena for a few hours (assuming attendence is good). But a club packed with people standing up would be worse.




Last edited by tfan on 03/20/20 4:54 am; edited 2 times in total
Randy



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PostPosted: 03/18/20 8:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Seemed odd. Maybe all the authors or sports fans. Or maybe they just couldn't figure out how to model it.



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