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#2 Connecticut vs #1 Notre Dame - 4/05/19
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Who will win this game?
Connecticut
30%
 30%  [ 11 ]
Notre Dame
69%
 69%  [ 25 ]
Total Votes : 36

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Shades



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PostPosted: 04/01/19 10:28 pm    ::: #2 Connecticut vs #1 Notre Dame - 4/05/19 Reply Reply with quote

National Semifinal
Tampa, FL - 9:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN2 (Adam Amin, Kara Lawson, Rebecca Lobo)

Stream:
http://www.espn.com/watch/player?id=bc9b7229-6626-4371-a0ea-53504c7fe526&lang=en (tvpli)

Live stats:
http://www.statbroadcast.com/ncaa/site.php?sid=wbb1

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/scoreboard/_/group/100/date/20190405



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Last edited by Shades on 04/05/19 11:10 pm; edited 3 times in total
RavenDog



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PostPosted: 04/02/19 2:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Best team is ND. Would guess a 15+ pt. blowout.

However, the best team doesn't always win, just look at the last two years.

One game, so anything can happen...


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 04/02/19 8:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This is Geno's Kryptonite game. I believe CBiebel calculated that Geno is 1-4 against Muffett in national semifinals. Plus, this is probably Muffet's strongest team and Geno's weakest. Rationally, I have to vote for Notre Dame though I'll root for UConn.

I thought Stanford could beat Notre Dame by focusing on containing the Irish in the paint and in transition, and not worrying much about the 3pt shot, of which Notre Dame had only made 11 in the first three tourney games. Indeed, they only made three against Stanford and the Card played a great paint containment game in the first half, only to see the Irish explode in, through and over the paint the entire second half. Jackie Young seems to have a supernatural driving ability to part the Red Sea.

Well, if UConn can contain the Irish paint points and force them to shoot threes, and if UConn can keep hitting it's own threes at a supranormal rate, there could be joy in Storrsville 'cause the mighty Geno won't strike out.
Nixtreefan



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PostPosted: 04/03/19 10:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Ugh after drinking too much ocelot and having a huge hangover I can tell you that the Card played 2 different games in 1 and that is why they lost the game. The first half was the way they played against Or when they won and the second was how they lost by 40. Talk about bad timing. The other reason they lost in the second was we were playing with 4 players LOL and we kept going over the top of the screen on Young which was completely dumb as she hates to shoot the 3 or far from the basket, she tries to get as close as possible and then jump into the defender and often gets bailed out, she won't in the pros, just ask Plum. Also the players in the pick and roll were Coffee and Dodson who basically were non existent just standing under the basket wtf. Simply can't win when 1 of your 5 players literally disappears.



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linkster



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PostPosted: 04/03/19 3:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Is anyone even going to mention Notre Dame's 18 point loss at home to the Huskies on 12/2?

I admit that the Irish offense looks awesome but they looked awesome back in December too. UConn was a lot questions in December and far fewer now.


CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 04/03/19 4:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
This is Geno's Kryptonite game. I believe CBiebel calculated that Geno is 1-4 against Muffett in national semifinals. Plus, this is probably Muffet's strongest team and Geno's weakest. Rationally, I have to vote for Notre Dame though I'll root for UConn.
.


That is correct. In Final Four games (semifinals and championship), Notre Dame leads UConn in the series, 4-3.

In Final Four semifinal games, Notre Dame leads the series, 4-1.

In NCAA Championship games, UConn leads the series, 2-0.


Fighting Artichoke



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PostPosted: 04/03/19 5:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Megdal's take on Notre Dame: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/notre-dame-is-less-one-dimensional-than-it-was-last-year/


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 04/03/19 8:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Acute advisors to Muffet are urging the "Stanford Plan" to beat UConn, which is to get Jackie Young to cut her pinky and then to bench Ogunbowale, after which the Irish take off like a rocket.
linkster



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 1:48 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
This is Geno's Kryptonite game. I believe CBiebel calculated that Geno is 1-4 against Muffett in national semifinals. Plus, this is probably Muffet's strongest team and Geno's weakest. Rationally, I have to vote for Notre Dame though I'll root for UConn.
.


That is correct. In Final Four games (semifinals and championship), Notre Dame leads UConn in the series, 4-3.

In Final Four semifinal games, Notre Dame leads the series, 4-1.

In NCAA Championship games, UConn leads the series, 2-0.


After reading those stats it almost seems impossible that UConn has won 8 of the last 9 games. Almost impossible.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 7:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

As is often said by the investor, crookster class:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.



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RavenDog



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 9:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
As is often said by the investor, crookster class:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


+1 Meaningless in this case...


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 2:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
Is anyone even going to mention Notre Dame's 18 point loss at home to the Huskies on 12/2?

I admit that the Irish offense looks awesome but they looked awesome back in December too. UConn was a lot questions in December and far fewer now.


Sure:

1. Mabrey had missed the first 5 games of the season and had only just got back and was definitely not in playing shape at that time. She literally played more minutes in that game than she had played in the season up to that point.
2. It was early December and ND team hadn't quite figured out how the Shepard/Turner dynamic was going to work inside.
3. ND pretty much didn't have any decent bench players ready yet. The backup PG was out with a concussion and Vaughn was just coming back from her ACL recovery. Prohaska was still adjusting to the college game.
4. While she was doing well, Williams hadn't shown the breakout type of game up until that point. Kind of like Marina Mabrey's first game as a freshman against UConn.
5. ND's attitude is very different now than it was back then. McGraw has commented that the team lacked focus at the beginning of the year. They've particularly regained it after those 2 ACC losses.

If you think that ND now is like ND back in December, all I can say is that I hope that Auriemma thinks that as well... Wink


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 2:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nixtreefan wrote:
The other reason they lost in the second was we were playing with 4 players LOL and we kept going over the top of the screen on Young which was completely dumb as she hates to shoot the 3 or far from the basket, she tries to get as close as possible and then jump into the defender and often gets bailed out, she won't in the pros, just ask Plum.


While she doesn't shoot the three much, I'd suggest that you probably wouldn't want her to, since she hits them at a 44.8% rate (13-29).


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 3:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
This is Geno's Kryptonite game. I believe CBiebel calculated that Geno is 1-4 against Muffett in national semifinals. Plus, this is probably Muffet's strongest team and Geno's weakest. Rationally, I have to vote for Notre Dame though I'll root for UConn.
.


That is correct. In Final Four games (semifinals and championship), Notre Dame leads UConn in the series, 4-3.

In Final Four semifinal games, Notre Dame leads the series, 4-1.

In NCAA Championship games, UConn leads the series, 2-0.


After reading those stats it almost seems impossible that UConn has won 8 of the last 9 games. Almost impossible.


Because:

1. ND won 7 of the 8 before those 9...
2. UConn went 222-4 against everyone else (although half of those losses are since your last win against ND).
3. You had Breanna and now you don't. Wink


Howee



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 5:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Torn here.

My usual "UConn must die by spanking!" opinion is tempered by the fact that, on the OTHER half of the draw are 2 of my favorite teams. It is my most fervent prayer that Baylor OR Oregon win the NC. Their best chances for that are if UConn is their opponent.

What to do, what to do.... Question

Personally, I'd say ND is favored here, but....nothing is a given, at this level. Hope we're treated to a fantastic game! Cool



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linkster



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 5:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sure:

Quote:
1. Mabrey had missed the first 5 games of the season and had only just got back and was definitely not in playing shape at that time. She literally played more minutes in that game than she had played in the season up to that point.


Do you keep a file cabinet filled with excuses for every N Dame loss for the last 50 years?


Quote:
2. It was early December and ND team hadn't quite figured out how the Shepard/Turner dynamic was going to work inside.


So a NPOY candidate returns to play and it is an excuse for losing? UConn was trying to replace half their rotation.

3.
Quote:
ND pretty much didn't have any decent bench players ready yet. The backup PG was out with a concussion and Vaughn was just coming back from her ACL recovery. Prohaska was still adjusting to the college game.


And UConn's 2 freshmen weren't? As far as I can tell you still don't have a bench. They haven't done much or played much either. Makes me wonder about all that whining last season about key players being out. Where are they? I would have assumed they would be playing key roles this year? Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

4.
Quote:
While she was doing well, Williams hadn't shown the breakout type of game up until that point. Kind of like Marina Mabrey's first game as a freshman against UConn.


The truth is that ND's defense needed to help on other UConn players and MM decided to let Williams beat them, and she did. Bad coaching decision.


5.
Quote:
ND's attitude is very different now than it was back then. McGraw has commented that the team lacked focus at the beginning of the year. They've particularly regained it after those 2 ACC losses.


Funny but I don't remember anyone talking about a lack of focus back then.

Quote:
If you think that ND now is like ND back in December, all I can say is that I hope that Auriemma thinks that as well... Wink


Why different? Do they finally have Ogunbowale's medication straightened out? Very Happy

Frankly I think ND is the more likely winner due to experience. UConn is relying on 2 freshmen and that's not a good thing. But I wonder if Notre Dame is as hungry this year. Very few teams repeat.


tfan



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 6:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Always looking for UConn to lose, but all I can think of is "18 point BLOWOUT at home". Although I believe that the UConn freshman had her best game of the year at that time. Don't know how much was because Notre Dame couldn't defend her and how much might have been the stars aligning.


linkster



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 7:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
Always looking for UConn to lose, but all I can think of is "18 point BLOWOUT at home". Although I believe that the UConn freshman had her best game of the year at that time. Don't know how much was because Notre Dame couldn't defend her and how much might have been the stars aligning.


Her scoring that game was mostly due to not being defended. She was left open for several 3's and beat her defender down court for layups all game. But she was the No 1 recruit so it isn't like she should have been a surprise.


Nixtreefan



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 9:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CBiebel wrote:
Nixtreefan wrote:
The other reason they lost in the second was we were playing with 4 players LOL and we kept going over the top of the screen on Young which was completely dumb as she hates to shoot the 3 or far from the basket, she tries to get as close as possible and then jump into the defender and often gets bailed out, she won't in the pros, just ask Plum.


While she doesn't shoot the three much, I'd suggest that you probably wouldn't want her to, since she hits them at a 44.8% rate (13-29).


Holy cow how'd I miss all those threes Rolling Eyes Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing



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tfan



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 11:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/20x11CWwcPU" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


tfan



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 11:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

*dup*


tfan



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PostPosted: 04/04/19 11:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J8euQMYgQuo" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>


ucbart



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PostPosted: 04/05/19 7:28 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well, here is what I think.

Our defense isn't good enough to stop ND, not even close. We've had offensive slumps and struggles all year. The ND team we beat in December is LIGHT years better while we have never been as good since. I hate that this is the case, obviously, but I just don't see any way we can win. We have a better PG, but Crystal, even as a junior, and as good as she is, makes terrible decisions frequently during games.

The only way were are withing 8 is if we make at least 12 3's....and that's just not gonna happen on this stage.

ND: 81-67


WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 04/05/19 9:10 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ucbart wrote:
Well, here is what I think.

Our defense isn't good enough to stop ND, not even close. We've had offensive slumps and struggles all year. The ND team we beat in December is LIGHT years better while we have never been as good since. I hate that this is the case, obviously, but I just don't see any way we can win. We have a better PG, but Crystal, even as a junior, and as good as she is, makes terrible decisions frequently during games.

The only way were are withing 8 is if we make at least 12 3's....and that's just not gonna happen on this stage.

ND: 81-67



They hit that many against Louisville so who knows . The key will be KLS , if she can do what she did against Louisville they will be hard to beat .



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 04/05/19 9:23 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
Is anyone even going to mention Notre Dame's 18 point loss at home to the Huskies on 12/2?

I admit that the Irish offense looks awesome but they looked awesome back in December too. UConn was a lot questions in December and far fewer now.


How would your bump theory play out tonight?



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