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The Trump Irony

 
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tfan



Joined: 31 May 2010
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PostPosted: 03/30/19 8:16 pm    ::: The Trump Irony Reply Reply with quote

While running on stopping illegal immigration at the border, it has actually increased under his administration. (Although even a wall would not stop the non-Mexicans with minors in their party who claim the unique-to-the-United-States "crime asylum".) And because he was harsh on illegal immigrants, Democrats are now forced to fully support illegal immigration, even though it hurts American workers. It's a shame that we only focus on unemployment statistics, and are not also regularly broadcasting wage rates in various categories and underemployment rates.

Trump is a one-trick pony on illegal immigration - a wall. He doesn't want workplace enforcement and hasn't lobbied to have the Flores decision over-turned so that anyone with a minor in the party can go on through. Hasn't lobbied for better tracking of visa overstays. And hasn't lobbied for more detention facilities. And he hasn't moved to remove the "crime asylum", which would seem to be an unprovable case. It would seem that either everyone from a country should get it, or no one. How do you demonstrate in an American court that you were the victim or potential victim of crime in say, Guatemala?

'We’ve never seen anything like this': As Trump threatens to close border, migrants overwhelm Texas cities




Last edited by tfan on 03/30/19 9:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/30/19 8:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah. It’s a complicated problem. Trump has now a very simple problem. Getting himself re-elected.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 03/30/19 9:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
Yeah. It’s a complicated problem. Trump has now a very simple problem. Getting himself re-elected.


I believe he is mistaken if he thinks that repealing Obamacare and replacing it with nothing, or something worse, is going to get him re-elected. I don't know where I saw it, but an article said the Republicans are split on repealing Obamacare. Some look at their failure when they had all of Congress to get rid of it and replace it with something else, and the subsequent 2018 mid-term losses, and no longer want to touch it. Others (notably deep red district Tea Party White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney) think that they can still win by getting rid of it.


GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 03/30/19 10:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Republicans couldn't repeal Obamacare when they had both Senate, under the feckless McConnell, and House, under the even more feckless Ryan. Thanks also to the unprincipled McCain. They did manage to chink off a few parts of it such as the mandate, but can't possibly do any more with the House now controlled by Jacobins, socialists, Islamists, and the Trump-hating resistance.

Obamacare might be held fully or partially unconstitutional in the current case called called U.S. v. Texas, but that won't reach the Supreme court until 2020. If the Court does strike the law down, we'll have an even more chaotic healthcare mess because it's almost a certainty that the Trump and anti-Trump political tribes will be unable to agree whether the sky is blue, much less on any form of healthcare.

The only remote possibility of improving healthcare is if one party wins the presidency, Senate and House in 2020, repeals the Senate filibuster rule, and then actually agrees with itself on something that's better than the current Frankenstein healthcare mess, and that's affordable both to individuals and the national budget. I'm not holding my breath.
jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/31/19 2:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Two very insightful posts. But we all know none of that matters to Trump. And even if it did, he has absolutely nothing to bring to the effort of constructing a better system of health care coverage. He doesn't even have the will. He just wants to win in 2020 and sit there annoying the media and his doubters for another four years.

As far as whether what he's doing now being a benefit or a hindrance to his re-election efforts, sure doesn't appear that anything since the Mueller Report, which so far was a big win for him, could possibly be construed as working in his favor. As people have been saying, he sure knows how to shit all over his own parade. But you never know. There is this crazy herky jerky rhythm to Trump's every misstep and recovery.

My money is on Trump.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
justintyme



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PostPosted: 03/31/19 4:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:
Two very insightful posts. But we all know none of that matters to Trump. And even if it did, he has absolutely nothing to bring to the effort of constructing a better system of health care coverage. He doesn't even have the will. He just wants to win in 2020 and sit there annoying the media and his doubters for another four years.

As far as whether what he's doing now being a benefit or a hindrance to his re-election efforts, sure doesn't appear that anything since the Mueller Report, which so far was a big win for him, could possibly be construed as working in his favor. As people have been saying, he sure knows how to shit all over his own parade. But you never know. There is this crazy herky jerky rhythm to Trump's every misstep and recovery.

My money is on Trump.

Except the Mueller report, which you would have thought would have been a huge win, barely even touched his favorability numbers. According to Nate Silver, this suggests that outside of the Cable News bubble, the report was not all that surprising, nor that big of a deal. It is going to be policy decisions that shape the narrative of the next election.

I can only imagine the reaction of Pelosi, Schumer, and the DNC when they were informed that Trump was going all in on ObamaCare again. It was literally the number one issue that just won them the Blue Tsunami in the midterms, and if they could have hand-picked an issue to pivot to that would have been it.

Trump really, really likes the people in his echo chamber singing his praises. Which means he spends a lot of time talking about issues that resonate with his base and that make people put on MAGA hats and go rabid at his rallies. But unlike a Democrat, a GOP candidate cannot win with their base alone. Since they just don't have the numbers, a "voter turnout" strategy is dead in the water. The only viable path for a GOP victory is by expanding their base by bringing in the swing voters. But so many of these issues that excite his base actively turn away those swing voters.

Consider the fact that Trump's approval rating is sitting at about 42%, and that it has been pretty much stagnant. Then consider that this is with a good economy. Since the economy is cyclical, it is almost certainly going to not be any better in 2020 than it is now, with a decent chance that it could be worse. If it is the same, Trump is going to have his work cut out for him to be elected. If it is worse, he will likely lose in a landslide.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/31/19 12:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, I'm sorry. This is the mistake. And at this point we should probably be referring to it as The Mistake. So let me just say it. Trump is still appealing to a giant swath of voters, not what you would typically think of as his base, in these key swing states. If the economy of this country is humming along on election day, with no wars and no catastrophes as rated as such by middle America, Trump is going to be very very hard to beat on that day.

And then you have the opposition. People are probably looking at that field and thinking it makes them feel good. I'm not seeing it. I've said Bernie has the most talent for the big voice and great message to take on Trump where Trump eats. Maybe Mayor Pete has what it takes to catch the public's fascination. Because fascination is what it's going to take. I don't want to go down the line naming names but a lot of those people, obviously, will never be POTUS.

You can wrap the entire shit sandwich which is the Democratic field up in what I think the last time I checked was its front runner, Biden. That guy is a train wreck with no appeal. Okay so he does have some appeal to the white working class, but I don't think it goes much beyond that. I'm repulsed by the guy. He looks like the fucking devil at this point. The creepy touching. And this incredibly grating idea of picking Stacy Abrams as his running mate right out of the gate. She lost the governer's race in GA and her only experience is in the GA state senate? But she's BLACK, Joe? And a woman? And the shit that he's saying to signal that he's woke. Oh Joe, go the fuck away.

Now, on the other hand, I just can't see how Trump is not fucking himself left and right. If I had say so over some of what he's doing and projecting right now he'd be able to waltz into his second term. He could so easily just stop the absolute self-destructive shit that has kept him right around 40% since day one.

But like I've said so many times, you're not going to wake up one day and find that he's changed, he's a different person. The country could be doing better than ever. His programs, whatever they are, could all be successful. By every measure, he could be ranking as the most successful president in a half century. And he would still get up there with nothing but bitterness in his heart and decry the press and spit at his enemies, etc. He's never going to not be who he is.

Given all that it seems a sure thing that he'd lose in 2020. I'm just saying don't make The (same) Mistake again in assuming he necessarily will.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
justintyme



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PostPosted: 03/31/19 3:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

jammerbirdi wrote:

Given all that it seems a sure thing that he'd lose in 2020. I'm just saying don't make The (same) Mistake again in assuming he necessarily will.


I get most (perhaps all) of my views on what is/could happen from listening to 538 pods. They do a really good job of breaking down the numbers and separating the punditry from the underlying facts about what it takes for someone/anyone to win the presidency.

And the ongoing theme is that there is still a ton of time between now and the election, so the best you can do is try and predict future behavior based upon past behavior and couch any predictions in a lot of if/then statements. For instance, the idea of Trump losing is predicated upon him continuing to refuse to pivot to the center. If he continues to push only for his base, and his opponent successfully occupies the center, he will lose 100%. But if he does what he did in the last election and convinces swing voters that he is actually the more moderate candidate, then his path to victory increases dramatically. This, theoretically, should be harder to do with his track record in office, but he did do it successfully according to the exit polls in the last election, so it is not unthinkable.

Now, it does get easier for him to do if the Dems nominate a far left candidate like Sanders. Then it becomes a coin flip as to who the moderates would tolerate more. But he advantage for Democrats if they went that way is that unlike the GOP, the Democrats have the numbers to theoretically run a "voter turnout" campaign where they excite the base enough and win without the swing votes. But they would need near record levels of participation from all corners, and it would be a tight race. Best case scenario for them is that they pull swing voters and excite the base...an Obama election.



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jammerbirdi



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PostPosted: 03/31/19 4:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah. I’m sorry. It’s the best one group of political analysts can get from their data. You add that Trump’s job of getting re-elected is made easier if the Dems nominate a far left candidate like Bernie. According to ‘538.’

It’s as if everyone is the same identical empty human vessel with different political positions and ideologies poured into them and voters will decide which positions and ideology they prefer. Just a little of this and some of that and you have the perfect candidate, according to all the data.

I would say that this and maybe every election comes down to political talent, personality, charisma more than ideology and where someone stands exactly on various issues. So i would suggest the Dems nominate someone with that talent and ability to connect with and persuade and excite large swaths of voters.



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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17
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