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Evaluating teams for the NCAA Tournament
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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/28/19 2:15 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Group 3 Analysis part 2

Missourihas a good enough record to make the tournament with wins over Mississippi St and Texas A&M. With 10 top 50 games there is enough data that their bad loss to Florida is not as much of a problem as it otherwise could be. The Tigers should be seeded somewhere in the 7-9 range depending on how they do in the SEC tourney.

North Carolina has some very good wins and some very bad losses. Even with 12 losses so far the Tar Heels are safely in, but they could be seeded anywhere from 5 to 10 depending on how they finish.

UCLA more than any other team turned their fortunes around during the season. The Bruins were outside the top 100 before the conference season, but had they beaten Oregon St last weekend (they lost 75-72) this could be a host team. Now their seed looks like 5-8 depending upon the Pac 12 tourney.

South Dakotais yet another mid-major that should be in. Wins over Iowa St and Missouri as well as a split with South Dakota St are enough to make up for their one major hiccup against Denver. Expect an 8-10 seed.

Rice is an interesting case. They have no top 50 wins and only 3 top 100 wins but there only losses so far are to top 35 teams. The Owls are now ranked in the top 25 in the AP and I believe that will be enough to get them into the tournament even if they slip up in the CUSA tourney. They are probably no better than a 10 seed, but they should be dancing.

Californiais only 7-9 in the Pac 12 right now, but even 1 win in their last two games against Washington and Washington St should get them in. Utah beat Cal and could finish ahead of Cal in the Pac 12, but the Utes are still squarely on the bubble because they had the easiest conference schedule and played only 1 top 80 team non-conference.


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PostPosted: 02/28/19 6:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Group 4 - The Bubble

This is the most intriguing group. There are 9 slots remaining and 28 teams to consider. In making this list I have included anyone in the top 50 in any of the rankings as well as anyone that has at least 3 wins against top 50 teams.

Team W-L(RPI,ELO,MAS) WL Top 10 WL 11-25 WL 26-50(Top 5 Wins by RPI) (Losses by RPI)
(As of 2/28)

Kansas St
18-10(35,26,34)0-2 0-5 3-1(27,27,43,65,67)(2,2,11,11,12,19,25,43,73,148)
JMadison. 22-4 (36,30,55)0-0 0-1 0-0(64,94,104,108,115)(13,122,128,199)
Buffalo.... 18-8 (37,69,65)0-2 0-2 3-1(29,38,48,74,86)
Ohio...….. 22-4 (39,48,49)0-0 1-1 1-2(24,37,65,71,64)(24,37,48,86)
Michigan St 19-9(40,46,46)2-2 1-0 2-1(5,8,13,45,45)(7,8,26,53,78,78,85,111,183)
Geo Tech.. 17-10(41,50,50)0-4 1-1 1-2(12,42,58,83,91)(1,1,3,7,13,31,42,95,103,121)
Clemson... 18-10(42,43,42)0-3 3-2 1-3(18,21,21,41,57)(1,3,7,12,17,31,41,44,145,177
TCU...…….. 19-8 (43,52,38)0-2 1-1 1-3(11,35,73,129,130)(2,2,11,27,28,35,73,129)
Tennessee 17-10(44,33,44)0-3 0-3 5-1(27,30,42,47,47)(1,4,9,13,15,22.30.87.98.145)
Michigan... 19-10(45,34,35)1-3 0-1 2-3(8,26,30,53,78)(7,8,10,13,27,40,40,53,77,85)
USC...…….. 15-12(46,65,40)0-4 0-4 2-2(33,38,63,92,96)(4,4,5,5,19,20,20,22,32,38,75,164)
Auburn..... 19-7 (47,36,43)0-1 0-3 2-3(30,31,54,87,98)(9-11,15,22,30,44,44)
Miami(O).. 22-5 (48,68,67)0-1 1-0 1-1(24,39,74,84,86)(3,37,74,99,347)
Quinnipiac 21-6 (49,37,71)0-0 0-2 0-2(64,81,114,134,134)(16,24,27,30,51,68)
Villanova.. 17-10(50,61,53)0-2 0-3 0-0(68,72,94,98,104)(10,10,16,25,25,52,58,94,104,138)
Butler...…. 20-7 (52,75,36)1-1 0-2 1-0(10,50,78,94,104)(10,25,25,53,114,114,138)
Indiana..... 18-11(53,83,54)1-0 0-1 4-4(8,32,33,40,45)(13,26,26,40,45,77,78,106,111,111,203)
Belmont.... 22-5 (57,45,57)0-1 0-0 0-2(59,62,131,131,132)(7,42,44,86,154)
Virg Tech... 18-10(58,67,48)0-3 1-3 2-3(18,26,50,78,80)(1,3,7,12,18,21,31,41,42,95)
Utah......... 20-7 (63,53,27)1-1 0-3 2-2(4,28,38,75,91)(5,19,19,20,32,46,75)
LSU.......... 16-10(66,47,52)0-1 2-3 1-3(21,22,30,67,87)(9,15,15,17,22,26,44,98,148,165)
FGCU........ 22-4(69,39,62)0-1 0-0 0-1(71,103,159,177,177)(4,29,83,102)
WVirginia.. 19-8 (73,32,31)0-2 1-1 3-4(11,27,35,43,108)(2,8,11,27,30,35,43,130)
Arizona..... 17-10(75,81,47)0-3 1-2 2-2(19,38,46,63,91)(4,4,5,19,20,32,38,63,110,143)
Purdue...... 17-13(77,87,59)1-2 1-2 1-3(8,18,45,53,78)(6,8,13,17,26,39,40,85,85,104,106,127,183)
Ohio St..... 13-12(78,49,51)0-2 0-2 4-1(26,31,40,40,53)(6,8,13,13,45,52,58,77,85,111,123,155)
Georgia..... 17-10(98,41,56)0-1 0-3 1-6(44,66,87,87,146)(9.13,16,22,30,32,41,47,50,145)
Minnesota.. 19-8 (106,38,41)0-1 1-1 1-2(12,26,53,77,111)(8,13,40,45,77,78,85,212)

Analysis to come




Last edited by calbearman76 on 03/01/19 2:26 am; edited 1 time in total
pilight



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PostPosted: 02/28/19 8:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
They also played Mercer, Central Michigan and Quinnipiac, 3 20-win teams that aren't as good as their records would indicate


We resemble that remark!



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/01/19 1:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Group 4 -Analysis

When I finished the data above I bolded the 8 teams that were currently in. Things have changed with tonight's results.

Kansas St is in for now thanks to their victory over West Virginia yesterday. Wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma St should be enough to make the field.

James Madison has a high RPI but no good wins. They should win the CAA tourney, but unless the Committee changes past precedent a loss will mean NIT.

Buffalo, Ohio and Miami(O)
all have a chance to be the second representative from the Mid American Conference. Ohio and Miami both lost Wednesday and Buffalo, who had looked like they would be left out now appears to have the best shot if they beat Miami on Saturday. A run to the MAC finals would help any of these teams.

Michigan St is one of 6 Big 10 teams on the list. At first blush the Spartans look like they have the best resume with wins over Oregon and Iowa and the highest RPI. Beat Minnesota this weekend and they are in, lose and they may have to win a game in the Big10 tourney.

Georgia Tech is on the outside looking in right now with only 2 top 50 wins, but if they get a third this weekend over Florida St they get close. Add a good ACC tourney and they can still make the field.

Clemson was in the field, but a loss to Duke tonight moved them right to the edge. They will have too play either Notre Dame or Louisville in their second ACC tournament game. A win and they are in, a loss will make it a counting game.

TCU has a weaker resume than either West Virginia or Kansas St right now. Wins over Oklahoma and Texas would really help, but they will probably still need a win in the Big 12 tourney.

Tennessee just had to beat Vanderbilt and Mississippi to make the field. With the loss to Vandy they have dropped all the way to 65 in the RPI and they either need a win over Mississippi St in the SEC tourney or a friendly Committee to keep their string of NCAAs intact.

Michigan looks like they are in good position as long as they beat Wisconsin this weekend. A loss would probably make them need a win in the Big 10 tourney.

USC is only 5-11 in the Pac 12. They have two home games vs Utah and Colorado which could get them to 7-11, but that would still be only ninth in the Pac 12. But if you add in wins over Oregon and UCLA in the Pac 12 tourney they may be able to build a tournament-worthy resume.

Auburn and LSU are both very much on the bubble after losing tonight. LSU has 2 top 25 wins over Florida St and Texas A&M but also has two bad losses vs Kansas and Tulane. These two Tigers face off on Sunday and the winner will be in position to growl into the tourney.

Quinnipiac, Belmont and FGCU all have a very good chance of winning their conference tournaments. They also have no top 50 wins so they need to win.

Villanova could have been listed with the last three, but Villanova could beat Marquette in the Big East semis, which could get them to 21-11 and an RPI in the 30s. Still probably not enough.

Butler has 1 big win over Marquette and could get a third top 50 win over Villanova. that might be enough, but a semifinal win over DePaul could seal an at-large berth.

Indiana has some very good numbers including 5 top 50 wins. Unfortunately they have 2 bad numbers, 4 sub-100 losses and eleventh place in the Big 10. A win over Purdue Sunday could help and a few wins in the tournament could help more.

Virginia Tech needs to get to the finals of the ACC tourney to have a chance at an at-large bid.

Utah is in for now, but they need at least one win this weekend vs USC and UCLA and another in the Pac 12 tourney to secure the position.

West Virginia would have been in much better position if they had beaten Kansas St yesterday. Now they have to beat Kansas and win their first round game in the Big 12 tourney to maintain their spot.

Arizona has been a surprise this season, but after a heartbreaking OT loss to Cal last Sunday the Wildcats need at least one (and probably 2) against the Oregon schools this weekend.


Purdue, Ohio St and Minnesota are all Big 10 teams who could make the NCAA if they reach the Big 10 finals, They are all well short right now, but can significantly improve their resumes with a deep run.

Georgia is somehow #36 in the ELO ranking, but I doubt that even a win over South Carolina Sunday and a run to the SEC finals would be enough.


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PostPosted: 03/01/19 9:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Good stuff. Where do you put Missouri State?


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/01/19 11:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PRballer wrote:
Good stuff. Where do you put Missouri State?


Even with another win over Drake they are probably on the outside. Their resume would be comparable to BYU, but Gonzaga is higher rated than Drake and BYU has a win over TCU (Mo. St's best other win is UALR. Currently the Bears are 67 in RPI and 75 in both ELO and Massey. There is one weird plus for them. Because the MVC final will be so late, the numbers the Committee will be looking at probably won't include a loss to Drake in the final (I put it that way because their only slim possibility of an at-large bid would be to win out until a loss to Drake in the final) so they may look slightly better.


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PostPosted: 03/01/19 11:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My guess is that if there's any way to get Tennessee in the tournament, it will happen ... especially if there's a choice between the LVs and a mid-major.



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purduefanatic



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PostPosted: 03/01/19 11:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
My guess is that if there's any way to get Tennessee in the tournament, it will happen ... especially if there's a choice between the LVs and a mid-major.


Man, their RPI dropped to 63 after that loss last night. They are now 17-11, 6-9 in the SEC. They are also currently 5-5 in their last 10 with a regular season finale at Ole Miss upcoming. If they lose that one, they have no shot except for winning the SEC Tournament.

They do have some excellent wins (@ Texas, @ Mizzou, Auburn twice) but now have 2 losses outside the top 150 (@ 'Bama, HOME vs Vandy - yikes).


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PostPosted: 03/01/19 12:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Texas isn't looking so excellent of late.



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PostPosted: 03/01/19 1:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks for doing all of this analysis - you can tell you put a lot of thought and work into this.

For the Big East, I wasn't even considering Villanova as being under consideration. I had thought about Butler but didn't think they'd make it. While it would be great to have 3 Big East times dancing, I think Butler really hurt themselves by having an incredibly easy non-conference schedule.


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PostPosted: 03/01/19 5:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

yes, thanks. good stuff.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/01/19 6:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
Thanks for doing all of this analysis - you can tell you put a lot of thought and work into this.

For the Big East, I wasn't even considering Villanova as being under consideration. I had thought about Butler but didn't think they'd make it. While it would be great to have 3 Big East times dancing, I think Butler really hurt themselves by having an incredibly easy non-conference schedule.


Myrtle wrote:

yes, thanks. good stuff.



Thanks. I generally do this for myself but after the Bracketology thread got hijacked by a UConn - Notre Dame spat I thought this might help.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/01/19 6:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Tonight's big games:

Oregon St @ Arizona St - Oregon St is trying to secure the last 2 seed while Arizona is trying to turn the season around after slipping from a #4 seed to now perhaps an #8 seed. Both teams are in but seeding matters

Utah @ UCLA - The Utes are still fighting to get in and a win over UCLA would just about get them there. The Utes have USC tomorrow and that will become a must win to have a shot if they don't win tonight.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/01/19 7:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

A few more thoughts on Tennessee. The Lady Vols were not just hurt by their ineptitude last night, they also suffered due to the losses of Clemson and Auburn. The Clemson loss to Duke knocked them out of the top 50, and therefore took one of the LV's top 50 wins away. Auburn's loss dropped them to 50, and if the Tigers lose to LSU on Sunday that would take 2 more top 50 wins away. That would leave Tennessee with only 2 top 50 wins which would make their resume look worse than it already does.

The movement of teams around the 50 ranking could be critical to bubble teams that played them. Right now the teams to watch are Butler, Villanova, Indiana, Michigan, Miami(O), USC, Auburn and Utah. Any team that played (and especially beat) these teams need to root for them to finish in the top 50. It shouldn't matter, but 10+ years of watching the Committee tells me it really does.


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PostPosted: 03/01/19 7:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Right now the teams to watch are Butler, Villanova, Indiana, Michigan, Miami(O), USC, Auburn and Utah. .


I'm a (part-time) Indiana fan, but I don't get how they're even remotely in it.... Shocked



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/01/19 9:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Right now the teams to watch are Butler, Villanova, Indiana, Michigan, Miami(O), USC, Auburn and Utah. .


I'm a (part-time) Indiana fan, but I don't get how they're even remotely in it.... :shock:


Indiana is still in the mix to get an at-large bid, and Charlie Crème currently has them in. I have them just out right now, but if they get to the Big 10 finals they are almost certainly in (the semis will make it close depending on who they beat). But the point I was making here did not have to do with the Hoosiers chances. Rutgers beat Indiana twice; the Scarlet Knights resume looks much better if those are considered top 50 wins. They are in the tournament, but their seed could be affected by where Indiana winds up. If Indiana beats Purdue they should stay in the top 50 (they are currently 50 in the RPI) which will help all of the Big 10. Michigan could also fall out of the top 50 if they lose to Wisconsin which would make all of the Big 10 teams' resumes look worse. It shouldn't matter to Michigan St or Michigan or Ohio St or Minnesota whether Indiana beats Purdue, but it actually does.


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PostPosted: 03/02/19 12:15 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well you can take Marquette off the list of teams with the potential to host Sad. Their season is in self-destruct mode at this point as they looked absolutely awful at Creighton tonight and I think they may have lost another one of their seniors to a season ending injury Sad.


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PostPosted: 03/02/19 6:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Group 5 - conference winners

This group lists the teams currently in position to win one-bid conferences. Obviously these teams will have to win their conference championships, but this list is presented to show where the various teams might be seeded. Generally the seedings look at best win quality first and then RPI and overall record, but actual placement into the bracket has also been affected by geographical considerations.


Team Record (RPI, ELO, Massey)Top 5 wins

J Madison 22-4 (36,,56)72,77,104,108,108
Bucknell ..24-5 (41,,84)47,79,79,117,136
Quinnipiac 23-6 (47,,72)72,80,119,128,128
Lamar ….. 19-5 (52,,89)18,76,97,157,170
Maine …… 22-7 (56,,90)34.64.80.84,111
Boise St .. 20-4 (58,,64)55,74,91,91,93
Princeton.. 17-9 (59,,80)47,64,80,111,128
Belmont... 22-6 (61,,70)60,69,122,129,129
Florida GC 22-4 (67,,62)79,92,157,177,177
Wright St.. 23-6 (68,,78)71,72,89,117,128
Idaho ……. 17-9 (74,,100)113,135,135,138,138
Radford.... 20-6 (86,,129)101,101,125,125,165
Texas Arl.. 21-6 (87,,86)92,109,132,151,151
UC Davis.. 19-6 (88,,76)54,137,137,145,148
VCU ........ 21-8 (100,,112)77,106,115,123,142
Mercer ..... 22-7 (139,,130)116,171,171,190,201
N Mex St .. 20-6 (144,,151)154,229,229,239,239
Southern .. 12-10 (173,,244)202,202,244,261,280
R Morris.... 17-9 (188,,193)207,230,238,259,259
NC A&T ..... 17-9 (194,,217)189,189,221,222,262


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PostPosted: 03/03/19 7:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
Well you can take Marquette off the list of teams with the potential to host Sad. Their season is in self-destruct mode at this point as they looked absolutely awful at Creighton tonight and I think they may have lost another one of their seniors to a season ending injury Sad.


Creme says they aren't out of hosting yet, although the margin is slim.

The injury is a big deal in reality, not sure how much weight it will get with the selection committee.


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PostPosted: 03/05/19 4:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Here is an interesting test of evaluating teams. Tennessee and LSU both finished 7-9 in the SEC, tied for 8th and 9th. Tennessee played a better non-conference schedule and won 2 games of note over Texas and Clemson and also lost two games to top 6 teams, Notre Dame and Stanford. In comparison LSU had only one good win over Florida St and had 3 losses to Rutgers, Kansas and Tulane. The latter 2 are bad losses. Big advantage for Tennessee.


On the other hand LSU had a vastly more difficult SEC schedule. LSU played Mississippi St, Kentucky and Texas A&M twice, 3 of the top 4 teams in the league. Tennessee played Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt twice. LSU was 2-1 against the teams the LVs played twice, Tennessee was 0-3 against the teams LSU played twice. Big Advantage for LSU.

The numbers show LSU 2-7 against the top 25 and 1-1 against 26-50. Tennessee is 0-6 vs the top 25, 4-1 vs 26-50.

Charlie Crème gives the edge to Tennessee, having them in the tournament and LSU out. I actually have both out, but have LSU higher. In a close call I believe that the play over the Conference season needs to be given more weight over games played in November and December. I agree with Creme that the loser of their game in the SEC tournament is out, but I believe that unless either team beats Mississippi St they should both be out.


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PostPosted: 03/05/19 4:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Tennessee also beat LSU head-to-head. That's an edge to the LVs.



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 11:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Regardless of tonight’s outcome, do you have UCF in the field? Of course if they win they get in. Smile


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PostPosted: 03/11/19 11:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PRballer wrote:
Regardless of tonight’s outcome, do you have UCF in the field? Of course if they win they get in. Smile


UCF's RPI is at 15. They are right behind Maryland and ahead of Drake, TAMU, Miami, S Carolina & Kentucky. To leave them out would be a repudiation of the single most important objective factor used by the selection committee.


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PostPosted: 03/11/19 12:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
PRballer wrote:
Regardless of tonight’s outcome, do you have UCF in the field? Of course if they win they get in. Smile


UCF's RPI is at 15. They are right behind Maryland and ahead of Drake, TAMU, Miami, S Carolina & Kentucky. To leave them out would be a repudiation of the single most important objective factor used by the selection committee.


They've left out top 20 RPI teams before



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PostPosted: 03/11/19 12:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
linkster wrote:
PRballer wrote:
Regardless of tonight’s outcome, do you have UCF in the field? Of course if they win they get in. Smile


UCF's RPI is at 15. They are right behind Maryland and ahead of Drake, TAMU, Miami, S Carolina & Kentucky. To leave them out would be a repudiation of the single most important objective factor used by the selection committee.


They've left out top 20 RPI teams before


The Comm is making a big deal about "quadrant" win/loss records. UCF's Q1 record is 1-4 with the one win being against #43 Quinnipiac.

Maryland's Q1 is 7-4, Drake 3-4 (inc w over ##19 SCar and 28 Rutgers), TAMU 6-4, Miami 6-5 (inc w over ## 1, 3, 11, 12 & 20), S Carolina 4-8, & Kentucky 5-6. The notion that UCF is even on the same planet as Miami is far beyond ridiculous.

Evidently the Comm uses more than just RPI since in its last reveal 4 of those teams were in the top 16. UCF was nowhere to be found.


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