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calbearman76
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 Posted: 02/06/19 9:08 pm ::: Re: Top 16 Announcement |
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| Marquette Fan wrote: |
So I haven't paid much attention to the Top 16 Announcements the past few years as I didn't root for a team that had a shot at a Top 16 seed but it's different this year :). I see the first one is coming up on Mon. 2/11 and there's a 2nd one Mon. 3/4.
I know the NCAA says the Top 16 reveal will have no bearing on the actual bracket that's revealed March 18th. But I'm wondering how close the announcements in the past have been to what actually happens with seeding. |
Actually they do show quite a bit about what the committee is thinking and how it rates certain teams and conferences. By every metric the SEC is way down this season. The SEC should have 2 teams, Mississippi St as a 2 seed and South Carolina as a 3 or 4 seed (depending on this weekend's games). Any more would suggest that the SEC may still be getting preferential treatment.
As for Marquette, I see them as a 2 or 3 seed, most likely in the Chicago region.
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summertime blues
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| Posted: 02/07/19 12:05 am ::: |
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| I’ll probably only be giving this a passing glance because it realistically involves maybe 6 conferences. In recent years, the P5 have usurped the most part of these spots, with the Big East and that one pesky school from the AAC claiming the rest. Actually, I would venture to say that aside from maybe the AAC and the MAC, no conferences outside of the ones mentioned will get at-large bids.
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Coyotes
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| Posted: 02/07/19 1:26 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
| I’ll probably only be giving this a passing glance because it realistically involves maybe 6 conferences. In recent years, the P5 have usurped the most part of these spots, with the Big East and that one pesky school from the AAC claiming the rest. Actually, I would venture to say that aside from maybe the AAC and the MAC, no conferences outside of the ones mentioned will get at-large bids. |
The Summit League will beg to differ with the South Dakota's playing their way into the tourney.
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ucbart
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| Posted: 02/07/19 3:57 pm ::: |
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This is going to be very interesting. I think what the Top-16 teams look like as of right now, and what they could potentially look like this Monday, after a big weekend of games, could be very different.
Right now, I see this:
1. Louisville
2. Baylor
3. Notre Dame
4. Oregon
5. UCONN
6. Miss State
7. Oregon State
8. NC State
9. Maryland
10. Marquette
11. South Carolina
12. Stanford
13. Syracuse
14. Iowa
15. Texas
16. Kentucky
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summertime blues
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| Posted: 02/08/19 2:41 pm ::: |
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| Coyotes wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
| I’ll probably only be giving this a passing glance because it realistically involves maybe 6 conferences. In recent years, the P5 have usurped the most part of these spots, with the Big East and that one pesky school from the AAC claiming the rest. Actually, I would venture to say that aside from maybe the AAC and the MAC, no conferences outside of the ones mentioned will get at-large bids. |
The Summit League will beg to differ with the South Dakota's playing their way into the tourney. |
JMU probably SHOULD, but the committee, of course, can't see beyond the P5, the MAC, the Big East, and that one school from the AAC. And even if JMU does, by some means other than winning the AAC tourney, they'll get some ridiculous pairing that will spell doom, because to the committee, the CAA ain't s**t. Doesn't matter what the rest of JMU's schedule looked like. TBH, I'd almost rather play in the WNIT where we have a reasonable chance.
Speaking of which, does anyone ever look at the Mid-major Top 25? I think those voters vote in their sleep. JMU is still stuck at a semi-respectable #12, but FFS, Missouri State, which has won 14 straight and BEAT Drake last weekend, only slipped in at #22, while Drake merely slid from #2 to #5. All of which is why I have little faith in polls and am feeling a bit sour about the whole selection/poll business.
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myrtle
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| Posted: 02/08/19 6:40 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
| Coyotes wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
| I’ll probably only be giving this a passing glance because it realistically involves maybe 6 conferences. In recent years, the P5 have usurped the most part of these spots, with the Big East and that one pesky school from the AAC claiming the rest. Actually, I would venture to say that aside from maybe the AAC and the MAC, no conferences outside of the ones mentioned will get at-large bids. |
The Summit League will beg to differ with the South Dakota's playing their way into the tourney. |
JMU probably SHOULD, but the committee, of course, can't see beyond the P5, the MAC, the Big East, and that one school from the AAC. And even if JMU does, by some means other than winning the AAC tourney, they'll get some ridiculous pairing that will spell doom, because to the committee, the CAA ain't s**t. Doesn't matter what the rest of JMU's schedule looked like. TBH, I'd almost rather play in the WNIT where we have a reasonable chance.
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This is a point I try to make every year... not just for good mids, but also for mid-level P5s. It just makes more sense to play in a tournament where you have a decent chance to succeed rather than be an 8-9 seed or worse, whose chances to make it out of the first weekend are minuscule.
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If only we’re brave enough to be it.
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calbearman76
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| Posted: 02/08/19 8:15 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
JMU probably SHOULD, but the committee, of course, can't see beyond the P5, the MAC, the Big East, and that one school from the AAC. And even if JMU does, by some means other than winning the AAC tourney, they'll get some ridiculous pairing that will spell doom, because to the committee, the CAA ain't s**t. Doesn't matter what the rest of JMU's schedule looked like. TBH, I'd almost rather play in the WNIT where we have a reasonable chance.
Speaking of which, does anyone ever look at the Mid-major Top 25? I think those voters vote in their sleep. JMU is still stuck at a semi-respectable #12, but FFS, Missouri State, which has won 14 straight and BEAT Drake last weekend, only slipped in at #22, while Drake merely slid from #2 to #5. All of which is why I have little faith in polls and am feeling a bit sour about the whole selection/poll business. |
To be clear JMU has aero chance of getting an at-large bid. Despite their RPI of 40 the Dukes have no top 50 wins and 3 sub-100 losses. Unlike previous years they played only 2 top 100 teams non-conference, and Georgetown could easily move out of the top 100 by the end of the year.
As for the Mid-major top 25, I do look at it but it is a joke. The poll is voted by coaches in the mid-major conferences and they seem to have little knowledge beyond their own conference/geographical area. There are perhaps 11 mid-major teams that could get an at-large bid (Ohio, Central Michigan, Buffalo and Miami(Ohio), Gonzaga, BYU, St Mary's, South Dakota St, South Dakota, Drake and Rice), but unless there are some upsets in the conference tournaments there will probably be only 3.
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calbearman76
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| Posted: 02/08/19 8:41 pm ::: |
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| ucbart wrote: |
This is going to be very interesting. I think what the Top-16 teams look like as of right now, and what they could potentially look like this Monday, after a big weekend of games, could be very different.
Right now, I see this:
1. Louisville
2. Baylor
3. Notre Dame
4. Oregon
5. UCONN
6. Miss State
7. Oregon State
8. NC State
9. Maryland
10. Marquette
11. South Carolina
12. Stanford
13. Syracuse
14. Iowa
15. Texas
16. Kentucky |
The Pac 12 teams could be juggled based on the games in Northern California, but as of now Stanford would almost certainly be 7 and Oregon St closer to 12. NC State may not even make the top 16 after their loss last night (Miami should rate higher). Texas will not be in the top 16; if the Big 12 gets a second team it will be Iowa St. I don't think Kentucky deserves a spot but I wouldn't be shocked if they get in given the years long overrating of the SEC. Alternatives include Gonzaga, Florida St, Arizona St and Utah.
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Howee
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| Posted: 02/08/19 10:34 pm ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
| ucbart wrote: |
This is going to be very interesting. I think what the Top-16 teams look like as of right now, and what they could potentially look like this Monday, after a big weekend of games, could be very different.
Right now, I see this:
1. Louisville
2. Baylor
3. Notre Dame
4. Oregon
5. UCONN
6. Miss State
7. Oregon State
8. NC State
9. Maryland
10. Marquette
11. South Carolina
12. Stanford
13. Syracuse
14. Iowa
15. Texas
16. Kentucky |
The Pac 12 teams could be juggled based on the games in Northern California, but as of now Stanford would almost certainly be 7 and Oregon St closer to 12. NC State may not even make the top 16 after their loss last night (Miami should rate higher). Texas will not be in the top 16; if the Big 12 gets a second team it will be Iowa St. I don't think Kentucky deserves a spot but I wouldn't be shocked if they get in given the years long overrating of the SEC. Alternatives include Gonzaga, Florida St, Arizona St and Utah. |
Ya, I'm gonna go out on a sturdy limb here and predict Stanford will be no less than #10 on this list....ESPECIALLY if Tara finds a way to handle Kelly & Co, if not in Palo Alto, then in the tourney. I'd love to see Utah get into that top 16 tier, also, over a KY....and I see Syracuse and Maryland falling before all is said and done.
I don't get L'ville usurping Baylor though--not cuz Baylor's better, but Jeff certainly has a higher risk of losing again to ND in the tourney....and if Kim and Jeff BOTH go with zero losses between now and the tourney, doesn't Baylor's ranking at #1 prevail?? Or does the committee start to look at RPI/SOS, etc., when choosing the #1 overall seed?
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myrtle
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| Posted: 02/08/19 11:33 pm ::: |
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| so far it hasn't really mattered if you are #5 or #8 on the women's side because the placement is done mostly by geography. ie even if UConn were #8 they would still put them in Albany and send #7 out West even if it were Marquette. Or maybe they'd send #6 out West and put Marquette in Chicago. So somebody like Maryland or Miss State gets sent to Portland. So really all that matters is whether you are a 1,2, or 3 seed.
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If only we’re brave enough to be it.
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calbearman76
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| Posted: 02/09/19 1:01 am ::: |
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| Howee wrote: |
I don't get L'ville usurping Baylor though--not cuz Baylor's better, but Jeff certainly has a higher risk of losing again to ND in the tourney....and if Kim and Jeff BOTH go with zero losses between now and the tourney, doesn't Baylor's ranking at #1 prevail?? Or does the committee start to look at RPI/SOS, etc., when choosing the #1 overall seed? |
Right now Louisville is ahead of Baylor as far as the Committee is concerned. Both teams beat UConn and Arizona St, both have 1 loss on the road over a top 7 team, but Notre Dame is higher rated than Stanford. But Louisville also has wins over Syracuse (RPI 8), Florida St (18), Central Michigan (23), Kentucky(26), North Carolina (28), Clemson(47) and Georgia Tech (50). Baylor's top 50 wins are over Iowa St(11), South Carolina (16), South Dakota St(27), Texas (32) and TCU (48). Even with another win over TCU tomorrow Baylor will still be a top 25 win behind Louisville with the other wins being comparable.
Going forward Louisville has a much tougher schedule so if both teams stay undefeated Louisville would be number 1. Oregon could even pass Baylor, but the loss to Michigan St will probably keep them no better than 3.
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Phil
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summertime blues
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| Posted: 02/09/19 7:15 pm ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
JMU probably SHOULD, but the committee, of course, can't see beyond the P5, the MAC, the Big East, and that one school from the AAC. And even if JMU does, by some means other than winning the AAC tourney, they'll get some ridiculous pairing that will spell doom, because to the committee, the CAA ain't s**t. Doesn't matter what the rest of JMU's schedule looked like. TBH, I'd almost rather play in the WNIT where we have a reasonable chance.
Speaking of which, does anyone ever look at the Mid-major Top 25? I think those voters vote in their sleep. JMU is still stuck at a semi-respectable #12, but FFS, Missouri State, which has won 14 straight and BEAT Drake last weekend, only slipped in at #22, while Drake merely slid from #2 to #5. All of which is why I have little faith in polls and am feeling a bit sour about the whole selection/poll business. |
To be clear JMU has aero chance of getting an at-large bid. Despite their RPI of 40 the Dukes have no top 50 wins and 3 sub-100 losses. Unlike previous years they played only 2 top 100 teams non-conference, and Georgetown could easily move out of the top 100 by the end of the year.
As for the Mid-major top 25, I do look at it but it is a joke. The poll is voted by coaches in the mid-major conferences and they seem to have little knowledge beyond their own conference/geographical area. There are perhaps 11 mid-major teams that could get an at-large bid (Ohio, Central Michigan, Buffalo and Miami(Ohio), Gonzaga, BYU, St Mary's, South Dakota St, South Dakota, Drake and Rice), but unless there are some upsets in the conference tournaments there will probably be only 3. |
Snobbery ill-becomes some folks. As pilight pointed out in another thread, and has given me permission to quote here, "FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries." This is true of more than a few other "top ranked" teams. They know who they are, and so do their fans, although you would have a hard time getting some to admit it.
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myrtle
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| Posted: 02/09/19 7:28 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
| calbearman76 wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
JMU probably SHOULD, but the committee, of course, can't see beyond the P5, the MAC, the Big East, and that one school from the AAC. And even if JMU does, by some means other than winning the AAC tourney, they'll get some ridiculous pairing that will spell doom, because to the committee, the CAA ain't s**t. Doesn't matter what the rest of JMU's schedule looked like. TBH, I'd almost rather play in the WNIT where we have a reasonable chance.
Speaking of which, does anyone ever look at the Mid-major Top 25? I think those voters vote in their sleep. JMU is still stuck at a semi-respectable #12, but FFS, Missouri State, which has won 14 straight and BEAT Drake last weekend, only slipped in at #22, while Drake merely slid from #2 to #5. All of which is why I have little faith in polls and am feeling a bit sour about the whole selection/poll business. |
To be clear JMU has aero chance of getting an at-large bid. Despite their RPI of 40 the Dukes have no top 50 wins and 3 sub-100 losses. Unlike previous years they played only 2 top 100 teams non-conference, and Georgetown could easily move out of the top 100 by the end of the year.
As for the Mid-major top 25, I do look at it but it is a joke. The poll is voted by coaches in the mid-major conferences and they seem to have little knowledge beyond their own conference/geographical area. There are perhaps 11 mid-major teams that could get an at-large bid (Ohio, Central Michigan, Buffalo and Miami(Ohio), Gonzaga, BYU, St Mary's, South Dakota St, South Dakota, Drake and Rice), but unless there are some upsets in the conference tournaments there will probably be only 3. |
Snobbery ill-becomes some folks. As pilight pointed out in another thread, and has given me permission to quote here, "FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries." This is true of more than a few other "top ranked" teams. They know who they are, and so do their fans, although you would have a hard time getting some to admit it. |
naw. bearman isn't a snob, just a realist. And you'll note that while 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100, that means 35% of them are inside. Anyway, JMU just needs to take care of business and win the colonial, which they should do and then they're in anyway.
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If only we’re brave enough to be it.
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summertime blues
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SpaceJunkie
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| Posted: 02/10/19 1:49 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
65% of games outside the top 100 also means that maybe UConn shouldn't be seeded as high as it will be, but never mind that. The committee doesn't care.
Maybe the NCAA should just be ceded to the P5 and a few select others, and the WNIT given outright to the mids, no P5s allowed. Of course then JMU wouldn't have had the fun of beating UVA as we did a few years back  (and would be happy to do again, maybe in the JPJ this time) It was better than getting put up against someone we have no hope of beating, which almost invariably happens in the NCAA. |
The games against the top are what matter the most.
The mid-majors that get the highest seeds are those that play (and pick up wins) against top teams, whether P5 or other top mid-major teams. That's why, besides Gonzaga, a team like Drake with their non-conference wins over South Carolina and Rutgers is in good shape for a high seed (as in #5-#7 seed), and South Dakota is almost certain to make the NCAAs, even if they don't win the Summit League, because they beat Iowa St and Missouri in their non-conference. All James Madison played this year is Maryland, and lost badly to them. But sometimes getting a #12 seed is ripe for upset.
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PUmatty
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| Posted: 02/10/19 10:14 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
| calbearman76 wrote: |
| summertime blues wrote: |
JMU probably SHOULD, but the committee, of course, can't see beyond the P5, the MAC, the Big East, and that one school from the AAC. And even if JMU does, by some means other than winning the AAC tourney, they'll get some ridiculous pairing that will spell doom, because to the committee, the CAA ain't s**t. Doesn't matter what the rest of JMU's schedule looked like. TBH, I'd almost rather play in the WNIT where we have a reasonable chance.
Speaking of which, does anyone ever look at the Mid-major Top 25? I think those voters vote in their sleep. JMU is still stuck at a semi-respectable #12, but FFS, Missouri State, which has won 14 straight and BEAT Drake last weekend, only slipped in at #22, while Drake merely slid from #2 to #5. All of which is why I have little faith in polls and am feeling a bit sour about the whole selection/poll business. |
To be clear JMU has aero chance of getting an at-large bid. Despite their RPI of 40 the Dukes have no top 50 wins and 3 sub-100 losses. Unlike previous years they played only 2 top 100 teams non-conference, and Georgetown could easily move out of the top 100 by the end of the year.
As for the Mid-major top 25, I do look at it but it is a joke. The poll is voted by coaches in the mid-major conferences and they seem to have little knowledge beyond their own conference/geographical area. There are perhaps 11 mid-major teams that could get an at-large bid (Ohio, Central Michigan, Buffalo and Miami(Ohio), Gonzaga, BYU, St Mary's, South Dakota St, South Dakota, Drake and Rice), but unless there are some upsets in the conference tournaments there will probably be only 3. |
Snobbery ill-becomes some folks. As pilight pointed out in another thread, and has given me permission to quote here, "FWIW, 65% of UConn's wins are outside the top 100 of RPI, compared to just 52% for Miss St. The Hussies have more than their share of pastries." This is true of more than a few other "top ranked" teams. They know who they are, and so do their fans, although you would have a hard time getting some to admit it. |
Maybe when James Madison beats Notre Dame this comparison will make any sort of sense.
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summertime blues
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| Posted: 02/11/19 10:52 am ::: |
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| Perhaps you have no idea of how hard it is for a good mid to get the majors to play them at all. JMU found that out several years back after they beat UCLA in OT, back in the days of Precious Hall, Jaz Gwathmey, and Angela Mickens. Coach said after that is was hard to get a good major to play us at all. None of the VA schools has been willing to except under duress. We're not quite at the Hall/Mickens/Gwathmey level right now but we're good. JMU gets at least one P5 every year, unfortunately very early in the season, like the third or 4th game when they haven't quite coalesced. This is true of a lot of mids, if they can get a P5 at all. A good mid frequently can't, because the P5s are afraid of losing and having that "look bad" on their record. So then if the mid is lucky they get a bottom of the barrel P5 like Wake Forest for their early game and in an off year things might happen as they did this year. If they played such a team mid-season the results would be very different, I suspect. That's why I'm in favor of scattering non-conference games throughout the year rather than bunching them all up at the beginning.
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cthskzfn
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| Posted: 02/11/19 12:38 pm ::: |
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| summertime blues wrote: |
| Perhaps you have no idea of how hard it is for a good mid to get the majors to play them at all. JMU found that out several years back after they beat UCLA in OT, back in the days of Precious Hall, Jaz Gwathmey, and Angela Mickens. Coach said after that is was hard to get a good major to play us at all. None of the VA schools has been willing to except under duress. We're not quite at the Hall/Mickens/Gwathmey level right now but we're good. JMU gets at least one P5 every year, unfortunately very early in the season, like the third or 4th game when they haven't quite coalesced. This is true of a lot of mids, if they can get a P5 at all. A good mid frequently can't, because the P5s are afraid of losing and having that "look bad" on their record. So then if the mid is lucky they get a bottom of the barrel P5 like Wake Forest for their early game and in an off year things might happen as they did this year. If they played such a team mid-season the results would be very different, I suspect. That's why I'm in favor of scattering non-conference games throughout the year rather than bunching them all up at the beginning. |
I'm confused.
Is it that all mid-majors coalesce and P5s don't, or that only JMU coalesces and P5s don't?
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myrtle
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| Posted: 02/11/19 12:46 pm ::: |
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| Tara pretty much takes all comers and usually does home and aways. Give her a call.
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If only we’re brave enough to be it.
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. I see the first one is coming up on Mon. 2/11 and there's a 2nd one Mon. 3/4.