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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 2:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Speaking times for Foodfight 2.



Yang has accused NBC of cutting off his mic.
pilight



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 3:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Seemed like Swalwell got more time and Bennet got less, but maybe that's because Swalwell said some interesting things and Bennet didn't.

Three of four at the bottom were the three at the left end of the stage.



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 3:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Here are the results of three instant internet polls on the winners of Debate 2. I'll summarize the top three in each by percentage.

Drudge: Yang (28), Harris (17), Williamson (13)

NJ.com: Sanders (27), Yang (27), Harris (22)

Washington Examiner: Yang (31), Harris (24), Sanders (20)

Biden, the dominant RCP poll average front runner going into the debate, got a 10, 7 and 6, which averages to 8%.
GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 3:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So, for those who want to credit internet polls, the four big winners over the two debates are Gabbard, Yang, Harris and Sanders. Many won't credit these instant polls, but the ultimate candidate may very well come from this group of four.
sambista



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 4:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

here's what i don't get: why the freak don't they just cut off the mics of the people who aren't supposed to be talking?! i know it makes for good tv theater, but seriously. plus, i want it to already be standard practice when trump starts debating so he can't be allowed to cut people off when they're talking. it's so simple to do. it doesn't even have to be announced in advance or agreement sought from the participants. just make it so!



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 4:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Internet polls are worth absolutely nothing in this age of troll brigades (and was worth only marginally more before them).

My suggestion is to either wait for the actual polls to complete, or go to 538 and use their poll which has issues (that they are clear and up front about), but that controls for as many variables as possible so will give about as reliable of a "quick response" snapshot as you will find.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 4:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

sambista wrote:
here's what i don't get: why the freak don't they just cut off the mics of the people who aren't supposed to be talking?! i know it makes for good tv theater, but seriously. plus, i want it to already be standard practice when trump starts debating so he can't be allowed to cut people off when they're talking. it's so simple to do. it doesn't even have to be announced in advance or agreement sought from the participants. just make it so!

When you answer your own question...

Wink Razz

But yeah. Unfortunately, "The Debates" aren't actually debates in any true sense of the word. Candidates don't really argue about the issues in any meaningful back-and-forth with argument/counter-argument/rebuttal. At best we get pre-planned campaign answers to questions, and at worst we get them not even bothering with the question and them just giving a stump speech on whatever tangential issue they want.

All the debates really are is political theater.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 4:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
All the debates really are is political theater.


The campaigns are just political theater. The majority of what happens in Washington once they're elected is political theater.



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 4:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
Internet polls are worth absolutely nothing in this age of troll brigades (and was worth only marginally more before them).

I don't agree with such an apodictic assertion.

In the 2016 race, the internet debate polls correctly predicted the ultimate Republican candidate, Trump, and the ultimate general election winner, Trump. I don't know whether there were internet debate polls in 2012, but I'd be interested in their results.

Even assuming the completely unproven belief that internet polls have some sort of ballot stuffing (or what you call troll brigades) going on, that kind of phenomenon is itself a hidden measure of popularity. Basketball fans, for example, have always ballot stuffed the All-Star game for their favorite players.

The point is, if Amy Klobuchar actually had a lot of hidden popularity, she should have brigades of ballot stuffers on her behalf. She doesn't, so she doesn't. A candidate with more popularity will be more likely to have ballot stuffers on her side, or against her most dangerous opponent, than a candidate with less popularity. I'm not saying this apodictically, just probabilistically.
toad455



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 5:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Can we just cut it down to 7 already and get somewhat serious about this.

Biden
Harris
Warren
Buttigeig
Booker
O'Rourke
Castro



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pilight



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 5:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
Can we just cut it down to 7 already and get somewhat serious about this.

Biden
Harris
Warren
Buttigeig
Booker
O'Rourke
Castro


It's too early to cut down very much. Plus Sanders is out-polling at least six of those candidates.



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 5:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
justintyme wrote:
All the debates really are is political theater.


The campaigns are just political theater. The majority of what happens in Washington once they're elected is political theater.


I agree on all counts.

And the theater is very important in campaigns. The vast majority of voters don't base their decisions on vague policy distinctions between candidates or formulaic platforms. They either vote reflexively for one party because that's what their "tribe" traditionally does -- e.g., family, locality, peer group, ethnic group, religious group -- or they just like one candidate more in an emotional or visceral sense. Political theater is very important to stimulate the emotions and viscera.

No one will know or care that Kamala Harris lied about when Berkeley public schools were integrated, but simply that she bashed Biden with an emotionally effective story about busing little girls in the '70's. (Harris said she was in the second class of Berkeley public schools that was integrated, 20 years after the 1954 Brown decision, when in fact the Berkeley High School yearbook from 1963, the year before Harris was born, shows a very large percentage of blacks in the class pictures.)
pilight



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 6:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
pilight wrote:
justintyme wrote:
All the debates really are is political theater.


The campaigns are just political theater. The majority of what happens in Washington once they're elected is political theater.


I agree on all counts.

And the theater is very important in campaigns. The vast majority of voters don't base their decisions on vague policy distinctions between candidates or formulaic platforms. They either vote reflexively for one party because that's what their "tribe" traditionally does -- e.g., family, locality, peer group, ethnic group, religious group -- or they just like one candidate more in an emotional or visceral sense. Political theater is very important to stimulate the emotions and viscera.

No one will know or care that Kamala Harris lied about when Berkeley public schools were integrated, but simply that she bashed Biden with an emotionally effective story about busing little girls in the '70's. (Harris said she was in the second class of Berkeley public schools that was integrated, 20 years after the 1954 Brown decision, when in fact the Berkeley High School yearbook from 1963, the year before Harris was born, shows a very large percentage of blacks in the class pictures.)


Harris was speaking of elementary school. They were slower to integrate.

https://www.berkeleyside.com/2018/10/16/a-radical-decision-an-unfinished-legacy

Quote:
For most of the children, it was the first year they would ride all the way across town each morning instead of walking to the familiar schools in their neighborhoods.

This was the fall of 1968



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 7:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
pilight wrote:
Howee wrote:
Winners on Closing Comments: Buttigieg and Sanders. Cool



Sanders had a terrible closing statement. When you've been in congress for decades, asking why nothing's gotten done during that time is not what you want.



Actually, it was a fantastic question.


Yeah, for someone who hasn't spent 30 years apparently accomplishing nothing. He basically said Swalwell was right, we need to turn it over to a new generation. That's not an argument in favor of Sanders.





When exactly was Bernie Dictator-in-Chief, pilight? Rolling Eyes



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Genero36



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 7:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

<embed><iframe width="1627" height="656" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OkGQZAnmzr8" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></embed>

https://youtu.be/OkGQZAnmzr8



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Howee



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PostPosted: 06/28/19 9:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
No one will know or care that Kamala Harris lied about when Berkeley public schools were integrated, but simply that she bashed Biden with an emotionally effective story about busing little girls in the '70's.....


....but your lying about her claim does get noticed. Laughing Laughing



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GlennMacGrady



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PostPosted: 06/29/19 12:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
No one will know or care that Kamala Harris lied about when Berkeley public schools were integrated, but simply that she bashed Biden with an emotionally effective story about busing little girls in the '70's.....


....but your lying about her claim does get noticed. Laughing Laughing


I don't appreciate the deliberate personal attack of being called a liar, even when followed by cartoon faces, especially when I spend a lot of time trying to research and post objective facts as well as personal opinions. Nor did I call you a liar yesterday when you posted in the NCAA forum that Sherri Coale is "the only coach OU has had of any relevant performance." I politely asked you about football coaches.

I haven't lied.

Kamala Harris said two things in the debate about her being in the second class of integrated schools in Berkeley, California.

-- “There was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bused to school every day. That little girl was me . . . ." You can hear this assertion in the clip Genero posted above.

-- "I was part of the second class to integrate Berkeley, California, public schools almost two decades after Brown v. Board of Education [1954]". You can hear her say this at the very beginning of this video clip.

Notice that both times she says "integrate", not "bus", and she uses the plural "schools". She did not limit her statement just to elementary schools or just to her elementary school in particular.

Her statements are demonstrably false. The article Pilight posted proves that in 1963, the year before Harris was born, "around 20% of the students" in Berkeley elementary schools attended schools that were naturally "integrated by default." The yearbook I found proves that Berkeley High School was integrated in 1963. This fact check article from the Sacramento Bee on Harris's claim has more detail of the same nature, and along with Pilight's article, explains how integration was accomplished by several means other than busing.

What Kamala Harris accurately could have said was that she was in the second class of students who were bused to one particular elementary school, Thousand Oaks Elementary School -- which had had black students for many years before 1969.

Okay, I'll retract calling Harris a liar on the point. Let's say she misspoke . . . or mischaracterized . . . or exaggerated . . . or equivocated . . . or prevaricated . . . . in the heat of debate. I don't care. The point I was making was that the emotional and visceral impact of her statements made for very effective political theater, and effectively hurt Biden, regardless of the facts of the matter.
Howee



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PostPosted: 06/29/19 1:41 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Words. MATTER, sir.
GlennMacGrady wrote:
Howee wrote:
GlennMacGrady wrote:
No one will know or care that Kamala Harris lied about when Berkeley public schools were integrated, but simply that she bashed Biden with an emotionally effective story about busing little girls in the '70's.....


....but your lying about her claim does get noticed. Laughing Laughing


I don't appreciate the deliberate personal attack of being called a liar, even when followed by cartoon faces, especially when I spend a lot of time trying to research and post objective facts as well as personal opinions. Nor did I call you a liar yesterday when you posted in the NCAA forum that Sherri Coale is "the only coach OU has had of any relevant performance." I politely asked you about football coaches.

I haven't lied.

Okay. You misspoke....or mischaracterized....or exaggerated....or equivocated....or prevaricated....but felt perfectly fine creating a personal attack on Harris, saying SHE lied. I'd think she might not appreciate the 'deliberate personal attack', but....you're allowed?

GlennMacGrady wrote:
Okay, I'll retract calling Harris a liar on the point. Let's say she misspoke . . . or mischaracterized . . . or exaggerated . . . or equivocated . . . or prevaricated . . . . in the heat of debate. I don't care. The point I was making was that the emotional and visceral impact of her statements made for very effective political theater, and effectively hurt Biden, regardless of the facts of the matter.


Kamala Harris, Glenn, has LIVED something you never have nor will re: segregation and busing, am I right? Your hour's research doesn't entitle you to diminish her experience. And her experience DOES entitle her to call out Joe in the way she did.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 06/29/19 2:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:

Notice that both times she says "integrate", not "bus", and she uses the plural "schools". She did not limit her statement just to elementary schools or just to her elementary school in particular.

Fact check: School district confirms Kamala Harris was correct on integration in Berkeley

Quote:
Harris said she was herself part of a busing program in California. She also said she was part of only the second integrated class at her school.


Quote:
She was not lying. In fact, the school district confirmed her claim to CNN.

Facts First: Harris was indeed part of the second integrated class at Berkeley's Thousand Oaks Elementary School: she entered school in 1969, and the plan to desegregate the school was implemented in 1968.

"Thousand Oaks Elementary, along with all Berkeley public elementary schools, were integrated through a two-way busing plan, beginning in 1968, so Senator Harris is correct in describing her experience in 1969 as the second year of the busing integration program," Natasha Beery, director of community relations for the Berkeley Unified School District, said in an email on Friday.

Here's what Harris said to Biden:
"But I also believe, and it's personal -- and I was actually very -- it was hurtful to hear you talk about the reputations of two United States senators who built their reputations and career on the segregation of race in this country. And it was not only that, but you also worked with them to oppose busing. And, you know, there was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bused to school every day. And that little girl was me."


The article goes on to explain that of the 17 schools in the Berkeley district, they found that 14 of them were de facto segregated so the school district voted to institute a bussing plan to integrate them. They noted that the high school was already de facto integrated because there was only one of them. So Harris was not misleading nor exaggerating on using the plural when she said "schools" as the district specifically came to the conclusion that their schools were segregated and she used the exact terminology that they themselves used to describe the situation when they voted to enact their integration plan.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 06/29/19 10:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

While we're on the subject of lying...

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/04/11/biden.eastland.letter.2.pdf




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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 06/29/19 11:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

man, Trumpism sure has allowed some with racial prejudices to expose themselves, many times unwittingly.



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crispyten



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PostPosted: 07/01/19 5:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'm 75 years old. I'm too old to run for POTUS. That's just one of many
reasons I would never run, but it is an important one. In my opinion, Biden
and Sanders are too old. Trump is too old; one of many reasons he is not
qualified to be president. I believe Hilary Clinton was 68 in 2016 and I
thought she was pushing the limit. But she was so well qualified in so many
other ways that I enthusiastically supported her anyway. Warren will be 71
in 2020. That puts her in "iffy" territory. But like Clinton, I would support
her; maybe for only one term.

Before the debates, I ranked the candidates based on what I knew of them
pre-debate. (I didn't know enough about nine candidates to rank them).
Kamala Harris was near the top of my list. Joe Biden was near the bottom.
Biden did little to help himself. I didn't like the way Harris performed in the
debate. I thought she acted like a bully by attacking Biden; not a way to
treat a member of your own team. Her attack was well planned and
rehearsed. Earlier she scolded others for interrupting, then proceeded to
do the same herself. Few seem to agree with my take on that. Harris
apparently got a healthy bump from the spat. Happily, it is early in the
race and there will be many more chances hear from them.

I would have liked for more questions to have gone to the nine people I
don't know.


pilight



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PostPosted: 07/01/19 6:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Biden dropped 10 points in the first post-debate CNN poll. Sanders and O'Rourke also lost ground. Harris and Warren were the big gainers.



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 07/01/19 7:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Biden dropped 10 points in the first post-debate CNN poll. Sanders and O'Rourke also lost ground. Harris and Warren were the big gainers.

What? No Yang? And Sanders lost ground? It's almost like I know what I am talking about regarding online polls...



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pilight



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PostPosted: 07/02/19 8:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The first post debate poll from Quinnipiac also show Biden, Sanders, and O'Rourke losing ground while Harris gains. This poll also show a drop for Buttigieg and a rise for Booker. Everyone else is within a point of the last poll.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631



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