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purduefanatic



Joined: 10 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: 03/09/19 11:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
purduefanatic wrote:
Shades wrote:
Does it matter? Has anybody ever tracked his success rate?


Amen. He is usually pretty close on the teams that make it (well duh, I think most of us in here can do that) but his placement and seeds aren't always that great, esp the lower seeds.


I agree the placements are usually off and I think some of his match-ups tend to be off. But I like to look at the predictions and there aren't nearly as many as there are for the Men's Tourney so this is one of the ones I look at.


Oh I look at it as well. It's always fun to speculate. I just take them all with a grain of salt.


acsuc99



Joined: 10 Jul 2013
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PostPosted: 03/10/19 11:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How can selcom put the weakest 1 seed with Oregon now that they probably moved below Stanford on the S Curve to 7?

Shouldn't Ville-MSU be together if the last 1 seed is between them?


summertime blues



Joined: 16 Apr 2013
Posts: 5375
Location: Shenandoah Valley


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PostPosted: 03/10/19 11:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My theory is that ESPN employs Charlie to give us something to yell at the TV about besides the news.



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ArtBest23



Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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PostPosted: 03/11/19 12:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

acsuc99 wrote:
How can selcom put the weakest 1 seed with Oregon now that they probably moved below Stanford on the S Curve to 7?

Shouldn't Ville-MSU be together if the last 1 seed is between them?


You're assuming a true S curve, but they use geographic considerations, as well as travel expense and other financial considerations, to distort the competitive structure. And there are other rules about conference affiliations that also come into play.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3626
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/11/19 1:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

acsuc99 wrote:
How can selcom put the weakest 1 seed with Oregon now that they probably moved below Stanford on the S Curve to 7?

Shouldn't Ville-MSU be together if the last 1 seed is between them?


That isn't the way the Women's Tournament works. There is a great geographical component that works along with some questionable choices. At this point it is a near foregone conclusion that Notre Dame will be 1 in Chicago, Connecticut will be 1 in Albany, Baylor will be 1 in Greensboro and Oregon will be 2 in Portland. Either Mississippi St or Louisville will be 1 in Portland. The other will probably be put in Albany. Even with their win I still have Stanford Overall number 7 and they should go to Chicago, leaving Iowa in Greensboro, but I wouldn't be shocked if those 2 were switched. As for competitive balance, the S-curve is hardly ever used. The Committee looks to balance the divisions by having the combined total of the top 4 seeds in each region add up to 34 (based on their overall 1-16 ranking) and even within that they have wiggle room of generally 3 points. A bracket could be completely balanced by having the 1, 5, 12 and 16 seeds.

It is also hard to know how the Committee will rank the teams. My rankings right now are
1. Baylor
2 Notre Dame
3 UConn
4 Louisville
5 Mississippi St
6 Oregon
7 Stanford
8 Iowa
9 Miami
10 Maryland
11 Syracuse
12 North Carolina St
13 Iowa St
14 South Carolina
15 Oregon St
16 Texas A&M or
16 Marquette (if they win Big East)

These are my perceptions, but I haven't looked closely at the numbers after the conference tourneys. Iowa St would move to a 3 seed with a win over Baylor


If it were me I would have Greensboro - Baylor, Stanford, North Carolina St, South Carolina
Chicago - Notre Dame, Iowa, Maryland, Iowa St
Albany - UConn, Mississippi St, Syracuse, Oregon St
Portland - Louisville, Oregon, Miami, Texas A&M or Marquette


Phil



Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: 03/12/19 11:48 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I see Charlie has Quinnipiac vs Marquette in a first round game. Does he really think that or is he tweaking Marquette fans?


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 03/12/19 12:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In one sense we would be happy to be in Greensboro. We beat Baylor once so know we can do it...if we got that far. On the other hand, Baylor would be really up for it - so the revenge factor might be in play. And I'm not sure our secret weapon (Coffee) could make 3-4 from three again.

The team we'd like to get a shot at would be Louisville.., or send us to Albany and see if we can mess with UConn.



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Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: 03/12/19 12:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I will take all comers. Have some faith Myrtle, Coffee will be caffeinated to the hilt Laughing



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myrtle



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PostPosted: 03/12/19 12:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nixtreefan wrote:
I will take all comers. Have some faith Myrtle, Coffee will be caffeinated to the hilt Laughing


Laughing well, the thing I have faith in is Tara's game plan. The question is always if she has the players and/or the right sign of the moon to execute it.



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Oldfandepot2



Joined: 05 Jul 2013
Posts: 988
Location: Northeast


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PostPosted: 03/12/19 1:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
Nixtreefan wrote:
I will take all comers. Have some faith Myrtle, Coffee will be caffeinated to the hilt Laughing


Laughing well, the thing I have faith in is Tara's game plan. The question is always if she has the players and/or the right sign of the moon to execute it.


If there is anyone coach who can knock off Baylor it is Tara. Give her time and she will plan her team to victory. She and Gary Blair IMHO are the best X's and O's coaches in the business.



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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3626
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/12/19 7:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:


The team we'd like to get a shot at would be Louisville.., or send us to Albany and see if we can mess with UConn.


I think the most likely place is Chicago. There is no chance of Louisville because they will either be 1 in n the West or a 2 in either Greensboro or Albany. Albany or Greensboro are also possible if the Committee wants Iowa in Chicago.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3626
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/12/19 7:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In my earlier post I listed Miami as 9. Upon checking I would move the Hurricanes to 11 and move Maryland and Syracuse up 1 slot each


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 03/12/19 8:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
myrtle wrote:


The team we'd like to get a shot at would be Louisville.., or send us to Albany and see if we can mess with UConn.


I think the most likely place is Chicago. There is no chance of Louisville because they will either be 1 in n the West or a 2 in either Greensboro or Albany. Albany or Greensboro are also possible if the Committee wants Iowa in Chicago.


yeah, I know. But I think ND is really the #1, #1...which is why I'm not so excited about going there...but whatever, you have to win to move on.



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PRballer



Joined: 18 Apr 2007
Posts: 2264



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PostPosted: 03/14/19 8:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Creme getting lazy! How can you have Louisville (2) and Syracuse (3) on the same side of the Albany bracket?!


Nixtreefan



Joined: 14 Nov 2012
Posts: 2538



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PostPosted: 03/14/19 9:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
Nixtreefan wrote:
I will take all comers. Have some faith Myrtle, Coffee will be caffeinated to the hilt Laughing


Laughing well, the thing I have faith in is Tara's game plan. The question is always if she has the players and/or the right sign of the moon to execute it.


HAHA true true, but I am feeling it. Except I was feeling it before we lost to Utah Crying or Very sad



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Coyotes



Joined: 28 Jan 2018
Posts: 461



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PostPosted: 03/14/19 9:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PRballer wrote:
Creme getting lazy! How can you have Louisville (2) and Syracuse (3) on the same side of the Albany bracket?!


I haven’t looked, but if there are more than 5 ACC seeds, and 9 ACC teams, they have to meet before regionals somewhere.


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 03/14/19 10:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Coyotes wrote:
PRballer wrote:
Creme getting lazy! How can you have Louisville (2) and Syracuse (3) on the same side of the Albany bracket?!


I haven’t looked, but if there are more than 5 ACC seeds, and 9 ACC teams, they have to meet before regionals somewhere.


In this case, they have three #3 seeds and one #2 seed, so presumably they would all be in different brackets...and presumably the #3 seed would have to be in the bracket with their #1 seed. At least that way they wouldn't be on the same side of the bracket. But yeah, it becomes a conundrum.



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thefutureisbright



Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Posts: 2079



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PostPosted: 03/14/19 10:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Here is NCAA site w/ Team Sheets and Nitty Gritty Report (MBB is also included in this archive) - https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx

I pulled top 35 RPI teams (NCAA Top 16 to start the list)

NCAA/Team/RPI/SOS/1-25/26-50/51-100/101-150/150+/Top 50/Top 100
1......Baylor...…..2.....3......6-1...6-0...5-0...6-0...8-0...12-1..17-1
2...….Louisville...3.....6......7-3...6-0...6-0...7-0...3-0...13-3..19-3
3...….ND...……….1...…1......12-2..2-1...9-0...6-0...1-0... 14-3..23-3
4...….U Conn.....6......31....6-2....1-0...4-0...7-0...13-0..7-2....11-2
5...….Oregon.....5.....10....6-2...6-2...6-0...2-0...8-0...12-4..18-4
6...….Miss St.....8.....45....5-1...3-1...9-0...2-0...11-0..8-2...17-2
7...….Stanford...4.....7......5-2...5-1...9-1...4-0...5-0....10-3.19-4
8...….Iowa...…...7.....8......4-2...5-3...6-1...5-0...6-0....9-5...15-6
9...….NC State...9.....14....3-4...5-1...8-0...5-0...5-0....8-5...16-5
10....Maryland...14...68....2-2...5-2...6-0...7-0...8-0....7-4...13-4
11....Oregon St..24...69....2-6...4-0...6-0...3-1...9-0....6-6...12-6
12....SCarolina...19...11....2-8...3-0...4-1...3-0...9-0....5-8...9-9
13....Miami FL,...18...37....5-4...1-2...6-2...4-0...8-0....6-6...12-8
14....Iowa St.....11...5......2-4...6-2...3-2...5-0...9-0....8-6...11-8
15....Syracuse...10...4......5-6...4-0...5-1...7-1...3-0....9-6...14-7
16....Texas A&M.17...25....3-3...3-1...5-3...2-0...11-0..6-4...11-7
……….Marquette..12...22....2-4...2-0...9-2...8-1...5-0....4-4...13-6
……….Gonzaga....13...52....1-1...4-3...6-0...4-0...13-0..5-4...11-4
……….UCF...……….15...40....0-4...1-1...4-0...8-0...13-1..1-5....5-5
……….AZ St...…...23...13....2-6...2-3...5-1...1-0...10-0..4-9....9-10
……….Kentucky...22...42....1-5...4-1...7-0...3-0...9-1....5-6....12-6
……….Drake...…..16...49....1-3...2-1...5-1...5-0...11-0..3-4....8-5
……….FSU...……...21...33....3-5...1-2...7-1...7-0...5-0....4-7....11-8
……….DePaul...….20...44....1-5...1-0...10-1..7-1...7-0....2-5....12-6
……….Rutgers.....30...28....1-5...3-1...6-2...5-1...7-0....4-6....10-8
……….C.Mich……..28...61....2-1...4-3...3-1...3-0...13-1..6-4....9-5
……….SDakSt…….27...63....1-3...3-2...3-1...1-0...18-0..4-5....7-6
……….Missouri....31...27....3-3...2-3...6-3...1-0...11-1..5-6....11-9
……….Rice...……..35...196..0-1...0-2...2-0...5-0...18-0..0-3....2-3
……….JMU...……..25...135..0-1...0-0...5-0...7-2...13-1..0-1....5-1
……….BYU...……..26...70....3-0...1-2...5-2...2-1...14-1..4-3....9-4
……….Texas...…..29...23....1-5...2-2...5-2...5-0...10-0..3-7....8-9
……….Kansas St..32...17....0-8...2-0...7-2...4-0...8-1....2-8....9-10
……….UCLA ……….34...12....3-7...3-2...4-1...5-2...5-0....6-9...10-10
……….Ohio...…....33...111..0-0...3-3...5-1...4-0...14-0..3-3....8-4




Last edited by thefutureisbright on 03/14/19 4:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
5thmantheme



Joined: 11 Apr 2016
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PostPosted: 03/14/19 3:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Minnesota v Marquette would be an interesting match-up, and get lots of local coverage and attendance.

Baylor and Miss St as the 2 in the same bracket, is the only way to keep good odds of a McCowan and Brown show down. I get it that Bird versus Magic is Not what the NCAA thinks is it's job, but still.

Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.

Missouri and Iowa State to see how much kaboom happens with Cunningham and Carleton.

Oregon > Stanford on point diff head to head, and injury.

Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.


otherwise ifs and nuts


Coyotes



Joined: 28 Jan 2018
Posts: 461



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PostPosted: 03/14/19 5:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

5thmantheme wrote:
Minnesota v Marquette would be an interesting match-up, and get lots of local coverage and attendance.

Baylor and Miss St as the 2 in the same bracket, is the only way to keep good odds of a McCowan and Brown show down. I get it that Bird versus Magic is Not what the NCAA thinks is it's job, but still.

Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.

Missouri and Iowa State to see how much kaboom happens with Cunningham and Carleton.

Oregon > Stanford on point diff head to head, and injury.

Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.


otherwise ifs and nuts


We've already seen Gustafson versus Turner and Shephard this season.


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 25034



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PostPosted: 03/14/19 7:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

5thmantheme wrote:


Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.




we'd be quite happy with that matchup.



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Marquette Fan



Joined: 06 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: 03/14/19 7:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

5thmantheme wrote:
Minnesota v Marquette would be an interesting match-up, and get lots of local coverage and attendance.

Baylor and Miss St as the 2 in the same bracket, is the only way to keep good odds of a McCowan and Brown show down. I get it that Bird versus Magic is Not what the NCAA thinks is it's job, but still.

Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.

Missouri and Iowa State to see how much kaboom happens with Cunningham and Carleton.

Oregon > Stanford on point diff head to head, and injury.

Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.


otherwise ifs and nuts


I don't think Minnesota is real likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Marquette-Quinnipiac like Charlie Creme has would be interesting as it would be a rematch of 2017 when 12 seed Quinnipiac won but I don't think it will happen because I don't think the NCAA will want to do the rematch.


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 3737
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 03/14/19 7:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
I don't think Minnesota is real likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Marquette-Quinnipiac like Charlie Creme has would be interesting as it would be a rematch of 2017 when 12 seed Quinnipiac won but I don't think it will happen because I don't think the NCAA will want to do the rematch.


I don't know who Minnesota is supposed to be, since Minnesota obviously isn't in the NCAA Tournament.
The committee was evil enough to make Miami rematch with Quinnipiac last year, so I couldn't count them being evil enough to make Marquette have to play them again out.


ArtBest23



Joined: 02 Jul 2013
Posts: 13332



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PostPosted: 03/14/19 8:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

5thmantheme wrote:
Minnesota v Marquette would be an interesting match-up, and get lots of local coverage and attendance.

Baylor and Miss St as the 2 in the same bracket, is the only way to keep good odds of a McCowan and Brown show down. I get it that Bird versus Magic is Not what the NCAA thinks is it's job, but still.

Iowa in Notre Dame's bracket, for a possible Turner on Gustafson D vs O gun fight.

Missouri and Iowa State to see how much kaboom happens with Cunningham and Carleton.

Oregon > Stanford on point diff head to head, and injury.

Stanford 2 lined with Maryland 3 who could go small at close out.


otherwise ifs and nuts


It would make sense for Iowa to be in Chicago, BUT. . . .

If Creme is right that ND is the 1 in Chicago, and Miami, NCSt, Syracuse and Maryland are the four 3 seeds, then Maryland needs to be the 3 in Chicago to avoid doubling up the ACC top 4 seeds. Then you have to put Iowa somewhere else to avoid putting the top two Big10 teams in the same region.

It's like a Rubik's cube. Every move has a cascade of effects.


Marquette Fan



Joined: 06 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: 03/14/19 9:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:
Marquette Fan wrote:
I don't think Minnesota is real likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Marquette-Quinnipiac like Charlie Creme has would be interesting as it would be a rematch of 2017 when 12 seed Quinnipiac won but I don't think it will happen because I don't think the NCAA will want to do the rematch.


I don't know who Minnesota is supposed to be, since Minnesota obviously isn't in the NCAA Tournament.
The committee was evil enough to make Miami rematch with Quinnipiac last year, so I couldn't count them being evil enough to make Marquette have to play them again out.


At least the Marquette players wouldn't get themselves in trouble by saying they've never heard of Quinnipiac this year Smile. I really don't care who they play or where they play as I'm so bummed about them blowing their chance to host. I hope they can play Fri/Sun because that's much better for me logistically. And I hope they can avoid dropping to an 8/9 seed.


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