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myrtle



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PostPosted: 02/11/19 2:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PRballer wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
LAST UPDATED: 2/11/19 11:25 AM ET
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


Oh Charlie, if you have a regional in Greensboro, North Carolina, the committee will put at LEAST one of NC State or South Carolina there. Ideally both. #location #attendancematters

Also Oregon State is #3 seed and should be in Portland.


OrSU is likely a 4 seed and therefore wouldn't be put on the same side of the bracket as Oregon.



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Coyotes



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PostPosted: 02/11/19 3:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PRballer wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
LAST UPDATED: 2/11/19 11:25 AM ET
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


Oh Charlie, if you have a regional in Greensboro, North Carolina, the committee will put at LEAST one of NC State or South Carolina there. Ideally both. #location #attendancematters

Also Oregon State is #3 seed and should be in Portland.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

You could switch Drake and North Carolina as 7 seeds, but that makes the Marquette pod all non-P5 teams. Getting South Carolina there would require a bit more juggling because you would need to move Kentucky off the 6 seed line in that region. The issue is, that if Maryland is the Top 3 seed, they'd get to go to the closest region, which would be Greensboro.


HomerCecil



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PostPosted: 02/11/19 5:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Coyotes wrote:
PRballer wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
LAST UPDATED: 2/11/19 11:25 AM ET
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


Oh Charlie, if you have a regional in Greensboro, North Carolina, the committee will put at LEAST one of NC State or South Carolina there. Ideally both. #location #attendancematters

Also Oregon State is #3 seed and should be in Portland.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

You could switch Drake and North Carolina as 7 seeds, but that makes the Marquette pod all non-P5 teams. Getting South Carolina there would require a bit more juggling because you would need to move Kentucky off the 6 seed line in that region. The issue is, that if Maryland is the Top 3 seed, they'd get to go to the closest region, which would be Greensboro.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

In 2011, Baylor (No. 1) and Texas A&M (No. 2, and then a Big XII team) were the top *two* seeds in the same region. The committee has done dumber things in the past.


Coyotes



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PostPosted: 02/11/19 8:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

HomerCecil wrote:
Coyotes wrote:
PRballer wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
LAST UPDATED: 2/11/19 11:25 AM ET
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


Oh Charlie, if you have a regional in Greensboro, North Carolina, the committee will put at LEAST one of NC State or South Carolina there. Ideally both. #location #attendancematters

Also Oregon State is #3 seed and should be in Portland.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

You could switch Drake and North Carolina as 7 seeds, but that makes the Marquette pod all non-P5 teams. Getting South Carolina there would require a bit more juggling because you would need to move Kentucky off the 6 seed line in that region. The issue is, that if Maryland is the Top 3 seed, they'd get to go to the closest region, which would be Greensboro.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

In 2011, Baylor (No. 1) and Texas A&M (No. 2, and then a Big XII team) were the top *two* seeds in the same region. The committee has done dumber things in the past.


The rules have also changed since 2011 to prevent this from occurring again.....


PRballer



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PostPosted: 02/11/19 9:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Coyotes wrote:
HomerCecil wrote:
Coyotes wrote:
PRballer wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
LAST UPDATED: 2/11/19 11:25 AM ET
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


Oh Charlie, if you have a regional in Greensboro, North Carolina, the committee will put at LEAST one of NC State or South Carolina there. Ideally both. #location #attendancematters

Also Oregon State is #3 seed and should be in Portland.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

You could switch Drake and North Carolina as 7 seeds, but that makes the Marquette pod all non-P5 teams. Getting South Carolina there would require a bit more juggling because you would need to move Kentucky off the 6 seed line in that region. The issue is, that if Maryland is the Top 3 seed, they'd get to go to the closest region, which would be Greensboro.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

In 2011, Baylor (No. 1) and Texas A&M (No. 2, and then a Big XII team) were the top *two* seeds in the same region. The committee has done dumber things in the past.


The rules have also changed since 2011 to prevent this from occurring again.....


Thanks! I didn’t know it was an official rule change. I thought teams from the same conference could meet up in Elite 8 and be seeded accordingly


Coyotes



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PostPosted: 02/11/19 9:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PRballer wrote:
Coyotes wrote:
HomerCecil wrote:
Coyotes wrote:
PRballer wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
LAST UPDATED: 2/11/19 11:25 AM ET
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


Oh Charlie, if you have a regional in Greensboro, North Carolina, the committee will put at LEAST one of NC State or South Carolina there. Ideally both. #location #attendancematters

Also Oregon State is #3 seed and should be in Portland.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

You could switch Drake and North Carolina as 7 seeds, but that makes the Marquette pod all non-P5 teams. Getting South Carolina there would require a bit more juggling because you would need to move Kentucky off the 6 seed line in that region. The issue is, that if Maryland is the Top 3 seed, they'd get to go to the closest region, which would be Greensboro.


You can't place Oregon State in the same region as Oregon if they are both within the Top 4 seeds.

In 2011, Baylor (No. 1) and Texas A&M (No. 2, and then a Big XII team) were the top *two* seeds in the same region. The committee has done dumber things in the past.


The rules have also changed since 2011 to prevent this from occurring again.....


Thanks! I didn’t know it was an official rule change. I thought teams from the same conference could meet up in Elite 8 and be seeded accordingly


Per NCAA, “ No more than one team from a conference may be seeded in the same grouping of four in line Nos. 1‐4 in a region, unless a conference has five or more teams seeded in line Nos. 1‐4. The other principles herein would apply in the exception case.
 There shall not be more than two teams from a conference in one region unless a ninth team is selected from a conference.
 Conference teams shall not meet prior to the regional final unless a ninth team is selected from a conference or such a move is required to complete and balance the bracket.”


patsweetpat



Joined: 14 Jul 2010
Posts: 2158
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PostPosted: 02/11/19 10:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

nvm


Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 02/12/19 7:18 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This may have been covered in this thread already but there's a note on Creme's bracketology that South Carolina can't host due to a facility conflict. They can't play at their usual facility but the school is looking into alternative locations for them to host should they end up in the top 16:

https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/south-carolina-searches-for-women-s-ncaa-tournament-alternative/article_02626a0e-2180-11e9-b88c-7f41572d19b9.html


Nixtreefan



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PostPosted: 02/12/19 11:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That happened to us a few years back, it sucks if you have to go to the other teams home.


Joe Foss



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PostPosted: 02/19/19 5:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

New projection up:

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology



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Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 02/19/19 5:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Joe Foss wrote:
New projection up:

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


I questioned people who said that Marquette needed to have a perfect run in the Big East this year. But now I'm afraid they were right Sad. Marquette's loss at St. John's really hurt them in Creme's bracketology - they went from a 2 seed last week to a 4. It makes me very nervous to see them at a 4 now - I want them to host so badly and that doesn't give them much cushion. I think the 2 seed last week was a bit high but was hoping they could still project to a 3 seed now.

I guess I better hope they can somehow win out but I'm not sure how likely that is. I had my hope up for them to host but I'm getting very worried that won't happen now...


Joe Foss



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PostPosted: 02/19/19 5:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
Joe Foss wrote:
New projection up:

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology


I questioned people who said that Marquette needed to have a perfect run in the Big East this year. But now I'm afraid they were right Sad. Marquette's loss at St. John's really hurt them in Creme's bracketology - they went from a 2 seed last week to a 4. It makes me very nervous to see them at a 4 now - I want them to host so badly and that doesn't give them much cushion. I think the 2 seed last week was a bit high but was hoping they could still project to a 3 seed now.

I guess I better hope they can somehow win out but I'm not sure how likely that is. I had my hope up for them to host but I'm getting very worried that won't happen now...


That is a pretty big hit, especially considering that Massey's still has Marquette ranked 8th overall even after the St. John's loss. But it could be worse - Ohio's road loss at Toledo knocked them out of the projected tournament and into the "Next Four Out" category. The Bobcats still have five games to play - I'm hoping they can win their way back in.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/20/19 10:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
This may have been covered in this thread already but there's a note on Creme's bracketology that South Carolina can't host due to a facility conflict. They can't play at their usual facility but the school is looking into alternative locations for them to host should they end up in the top 16:

https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/south-carolina-searches-for-women-s-ncaa-tournament-alternative/article_02626a0e-2180-11e9-b88c-7f41572d19b9.html



South Carolina has been given the right to host the first two rounds in Charlotte, roughly 60 miles north of Columbia.


acsuc99



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PostPosted: 02/21/19 12:15 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Not having ND in Chicago or S Carolina or NC State in Greensboro basically means you will have 2 empty regional sites. Isn't ND closer to Chicago than UConn is to Albany?


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/21/19 3:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

acsuc99 wrote:
Not having ND in Chicago or S Carolina or NC State in Greensboro basically means you will have 2 empty regional sites. Isn't ND closer to Chicago than UConn is to Albany?


NC St to Greensboro (approx 75 miles)
Notre Dame to Chicago (90 miles)
Oregon to Portland (110 miles)
UConn to Albany (115 miles)
South Carolina to Greensboro (180 miles)

Ideally Notre Dame, Oregon and UConn should all get near home venues.Baylor is roughly 100 miles closer to Chicago than Greensboro and Louisville is roughly 200 miles closer to Chicago. Mississippi St is roughly 50 miles closer to Greensboro than Chicago. These are the top 6 teams and that means 2 regions will have 2 of these teams and 2 will have only 1. Particularly if Notre Dame wins the ACC tournament, I would put Baylor in Greensboro and ship Louisville and Mississippi St to the East and West. North Carolina St and/or South Carolina could play in Greensboro as a 3 or 4 seed, Marquette could get to Chicago as a 3 or 4 seed. This type of placement is not generally done by the Committee, but it probably should be.

Albany

1 UConn
2 Mississippi St
3 Maryland
4 Florida St

Greensboro

1 Baylor
2 Stanford
3 South Carolina
4 NC St

Chicago

1 Notre Dame
2 Iowa
3 Oregon St
4 Marquette


Portland

1 Oregon
2 Louisville
3 Miami
4 Iowa St


These brackets would allow for strong fan interest in each venue as well as providing reasonable balance (depending upon how the rest of the season goes) It is based not on a rigid team-by-team placement, but rather a balance of geographical considerations and overall balance.


Nixtreefan



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PostPosted: 02/21/19 11:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Not bad Cal. I just can't see them not putting the green tea in Chicago and lose all that green moolah.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 1:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Here is a look at my projections for the teams (projected seed) currently in the Tournament by conference:

AAC: Connecticut (1), UCF (9)
ACC: Notre Dame (1), Louisville (2), NC St (3), Miami (4), Florida St (4), Syracuse (5), North Carolina (7), Clemson (10)
B12: Baylor (1), Iowa St (5), Texas (6), West Virginia (8)
B10: Maryland (2), Iowa (3), Rutgers (7), Michigan (8), Michigan St (9)
BE: Marquette (5), DePaul (7), Butler (10)
MAC: Central Michigan (8), Ohio (11)
P12: Oregon (2), Stanford (2), Oregon St (3), Arizona St (5), UCLA (6), Cal (8), Utah (12)
SEC: Mississippi St (1), South Carolina (3), Kentucky (4), Texas A&M (4), Missouri (6), Tennessee (9), LSU (11)
Summit: South Dakota St(9), South Dakota (11)
WCC: Gonzaga (6), BYU (10)
MVC: Drake (7)
CUSA: Rice(10)
Col: James Madison (11)

All other conferences have 1 bid with 12-16 seeds

Other teams that still have a chance at an at-large bid: Georgia Tech, Auburn, TCU, Miami(O), Minnesota, TCU, Kansas St, Indiana, Purdue, Virginia Tech, Arizona, USC, Buffalo, Ohio St.


acsuc99



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 2:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Please tell me that this Oregon loss tonight knocks them out of the 1 seed.


Coyotes



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 3:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

acsuc99 wrote:
Please tell me that this Oregon loss tonight knocks them out of the 1 seed.


I would say it doesn’t. The committee probably takes it with a grain of salt without Hebard who is a star.


Ex-Ref



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 6:58 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Coyotes wrote:
acsuc99 wrote:
Please tell me that this Oregon loss tonight knocks them out of the 1 seed.


I would say it doesn’t. The committee probably takes it with a grain of salt without Hebard who is a star.


Then they need to take into account that ND lost to NC without Young who is also a star. IIRC, ND had less time to adjust to the loss of Young than Oregon did to the loss of Hebard.



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PRballer



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 11:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

[quote="Ex-Ref"]
Coyotes wrote:
acsuc99 wrote:
Please tell me that this Oregon loss tonight knocks them out of the 1 seed.


I would say it doesn’t. The committee probably takes it with a grain of salt without Hebard who is a star.


Then they need to take into account that ND lost to NC without Young who is also a star. IIRC, ND had less time to adjust to the loss of Young than Oregon did to the loss of Hebard.[/quote


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 12:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Oregon has dropped to the overall 6 position, a #2 seed, but still in the Portland Region. Right now I see either Louisville or Mississippi St as the #1 seed that will be shipped West. It is possible that the Pac 12 could have 3 #2 seeds, depending upon how their Tournament goes.

With their win over Oregon I now see UCLA as high as a 6 seed depending upon how much the Committee considers their improvement through the season. It is now conceivable that the Bruins could even make it up to a top 4 seed with a win over Oregon St tomorrow. That is an impressive move for a team that wasn't even in the top 100 RPI at the end of non-conference play.


Phil



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 2:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I commented elsewhere that I see the Oregon placement as especially tough . How on earth can they be a one seed with 3 losses, I’m sure some are saying. And that view may prevail. But I still think that full strength Oregon is the strongest team in the country, so I am certain that if I were a Mississippi State fan, I’d be very unhappy about getting a one seed and “rewarded” with the opportunity to have to go through the strongest team in the country on home turf. Thanks, but no thanks. Rinse and repeat for Louisville.

There may be other fans who think Oregon deserve to be dropped to a two seed, but I’ll be surprised if any of the potential number one teams who might get shipped to Portland will feel that way.


linkster



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 2:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Oregon has dropped to the overall 6 position, a #2 seed, but still in the Portland Region. Right now I see either Louisville or Mississippi St as the #1 seed that will be shipped West. It is possible that the Pac 12 could have 3 #2 seeds, depending upon how their Tournament goes.

With their win over Oregon I now see UCLA as high as a 6 seed depending upon how much the Committee considers their improvement through the season. It is now conceivable that the Bruins could even make it up to a top 4 seed with a win over Oregon St tomorrow. That is an impressive move for a team that wasn't even in the top 100 RPI at the end of non-conference play.


Why is it that Oregon's loss is discounted by the injury but UCLA still gets full credit?

A few P5 teams will get lucky and beat a couple of higher ranked teams that are nursing injuries or just uninterested since their conf ranking is settled. At the same time there are also some mid-majors that are also on a hot streak, playing their best ball, but who will get little credit because they have no opponents of note to play.


Phil



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PostPosted: 02/23/19 3:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This essentially is an argument for symmetry.
Ignoring injuries for a moment, consider team A playing team B. There is some metric ranking the two teams, and the ranking of team A, before the game, is X, and the ranking of team B (again, before the game) is Y.
The game is played and Team B wins.
The revised ranking are:
Team A : X -delta
Team B: Y +delta.
Delta not necessarily positive (If Team B is viewed as much better than team A and wins a squeaker, the delta may be negative
The concept of symmetry says that there is only one value for delta. Whatever amount is added to Team B is exactly the same as the amount subtracted from Team A (For the mathematically inclined, I’m making some unstated assumptions about the linearity of the metric).
A general question is whether symmetry is required. Could one devise a metric in which one needs two different deltas, one for the increment to Team B and a different value for the decrement to Team A.
The general answer is: of course.
The more specific question is whether the value of delta might differ in a situation where a key player is out for one of the team.

I think a good case can be made that the adjustment values should be different.


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