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Phil



Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: 01/28/19 11:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I agree that there are a range of options although I see the options as three through seven.

There is historical precedent for a number one team losing and staying at number one but you can only do that if you lose to a very very good team which doesn't describe North Carolina, so despite the fact that there overall RPI is still number one they are going to have to move down.

Number two isn't really an option. You can justify ranking Notre Dame ahead of UConn when both had a single loss, each of which was to a very good team, and use overall RPI as a tiebreaker. But were Notre Dame as to this is one of which is to an unranked team, I think they have to move past UConn.

Had Stanford won, you would have six consecutive one last teams, and have to pick where Notre Dame should fall. Stanford's loss makes a little easier but, anticipating your argument, far from trivial. Notre Dame was several's thoughts ahead of Stanford, and both lost, so it seems likely that the order would remain, with Stanford somewhere below Notre Dame. That said, Notre Dame's loss was to a far weaker team than Stanford's. At least Utah is ranked. They don't have the name recognition so the ranking is slowly catching up to their true ability, but an argument can be made the Utah should be as high as 10th. If I were Stanford I would argue that losing to a team ranked in the top 10 is far better than losing to an unranked team, so you could argue that Notre Dame should move below Stanford.

I don't think that will happen.

Someone is sure to argue that you might justify having an undefeated team (NC State) behind a team with one loss it's too much to place them behind a team with two losses. NC State's record is a chimera. they've only got one win against a ranked team and that's a four-point win over number 23 Michigan State. Prior to yesterday's loss to North Carolina, all of the law offices of the seven teams ahead of NC State were two teams stronger than Michigan State. In other words, if all of those seven teams were playing NC State schedule they'd all be expected to be undefeated. (Oregon a slight exception as their single loss is to Michigan State).

I'm not sure how much slack voters can cut when a team loses because their best player is out and not available because of an injury on the day the game which means the team had virtually no time to practice playing without her. If it were a season-ending injury you might treated differently but given that she is expected back soon, I anticipate that the voters will leave Notre Dame ahead of NC State and Stanford whether they should be ahead or behind Louisville and Oregon.

My best guess is fourth.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 12:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I agree: fourth.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 1:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It wouldn’t surprise me if ND only falls to #3, because Creme already stated that he didn’t consider the NC game a bad loss. He’s influential among the AP crowd.

I consider it a bad enough loss to drop them at least to #4, even though they won the head-to-head with LOU. But LOU doesn’t have any bad losses.

The bad losses don’t show up until Oregon, who lost to Michigan St.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 1:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/rankings/_/week/13/year/2019/seasontype/2

Baylor #1
ND dropped to #5. Oregon edged them out by only 2 pts.
STAN only drops to #8
Utah up to #14
BYU makes an appearance at #25

Missouri drops out.



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Phil



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 4:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So I'm wrong and they went to fifth, but a close call 606 and 604 points (oops, I now see you already made that point)

Happy to see Utah getting some respect (thought they have some tough game coming up so we will soon see if it is deserved).


Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 4:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette stays at 10th - works for me - never expected them to get this high in the polls Smile. The MU men moved to 10th this week in the AP poll also so they are currently the only school with Men's and Women's programs in the top 10. And yes I know tons of schools have done this before MU but it's a big deal for me as the MU Women have never been rated this high Smile. And it's bringing more media attention to the Women's team that both teams are in the top now at least locally. And hopefully this increased local media attention will translate to larger crowds for the last 4 home games.


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 5:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well, just for fun on McGraw's bench, I looked up the remaining games for the top 10 teams against ranked opponents (current rankings). Still quite a few left:

#1 Baylor at #23 Iowa St.
#1 Baylor at #12 Texas
#1 Baylor vs #12 Texas
#2 UConn at #3 Louisville
#2 UConn vs #16 S. Carolina
#3 Louisville vs #18 Syracuse
#3 Louisville vs #7 NC St
#4 Oregon at #8 Stanford
#4 Oregon vs #9 Oregon St
#4 Oregon at #9 Oregon St.
#4 Oregon at #21 ASU
#5 ND vs #24 FSU
#5 ND at #7 NC St.
#5 ND at #18 Syracuse
#6 MSU at #20 Texas A&M
#6 MSU at #16 S. Carolina
#7 NC St. at #24 FSU
#7 NC St. at #18 Syracuse
#8 Stanford vs #9 Oregon St.
#8 Stanford vs #21 ASU
#9 Oregon St vs #21 ASU


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 5:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Looking at the list I just posted, if Louisville can pull the upset against UConn and MSU gets upset at A&M or at S. Carolina, chances would be pretty good that no team would end the season with less than 2 losses.

Louisville would still have Syracuse, NC St. and eventually probably ND in the ACCT.

Oregon still has to play 3 games against top 10 opponents, 2 on the road, and 2 that are against their main rival.

NC St.'s conference schedule was seriously back-loaded.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 6:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CBiebel wrote:
Looking at the list I just posted, if Louisville can pull the upset against UConn and MSU gets upset at A&M or at S. Carolina, chances would be pretty good that no team would end the season with less than 2 losses.

Louisville would still have Syracuse, NC St. and eventually probably ND in the ACCT.

Oregon still has to play 3 games against top 10 opponents, 2 on the road, and 2 that are against their main rival.

NC St.'s conference schedule was seriously back-loaded.


Baylor should have zero losses in conference. Texas is only ranked that high because their conference is so weak this year.
It would surprise me if ND loses another game.
Louisville's chance of upsetting UConn is about 1 in 10 and that is much higher odds than I would have given a month ago.
MsSU's chance of losing to A&M or S. Caro are about 1 in 50. Not as bad as the B12, but the SEC is extremely weak this year.
NC St's chance of staying undefeated are about 1 in 80. If they come out with less than 3 losses, that will be a minor miracle.
Oregon's chance of getting beaten again in the regular season is about 1 in 8. It could happen if the stars align right.

IMO of course.



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ArtBest23



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PostPosted: 01/28/19 11:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
CBiebel wrote:
Looking at the list I just posted, if Louisville can pull the upset against UConn and MSU gets upset at A&M or at S. Carolina, chances would be pretty good that no team would end the season with less than 2 losses.

Louisville would still have Syracuse, NC St. and eventually probably ND in the ACCT.

Oregon still has to play 3 games against top 10 opponents, 2 on the road, and 2 that are against their main rival.

NC St.'s conference schedule was seriously back-loaded.


Baylor should have zero losses in conference. Texas is only ranked that high because their conference is so weak this year.
It would surprise me if ND loses another game.
Louisville's chance of upsetting UConn is about 1 in 10 and that is much higher odds than I would have given a month ago.
MsSU's chance of losing to A&M or S. Caro are about 1 in 50. Not as bad as the B12, but the SEC is extremely weak this year.
NC St's chance of staying undefeated are about 1 in 80. If they come out with less than 3 losses, that will be a minor miracle.
Oregon's chance of getting beaten again in the regular season is about 1 in 8. It could happen if the stars align right.

IMO of course.


You have to consider the possibility of injuries. It doesn't have to be season ending to result in a loss. Young's ankle is an example. Oregon has a couple players whose loss it would struggle to overcome. Louisvile would have trouble if Durr sprained her ankle. Etc. It's part of the game but it's a wildcard in projecting end of season records.

There is probably no single player on Baylor whose loss for a game would cause them to lose a B12 game.


linkster



Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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PostPosted: 01/29/19 12:42 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:

There is probably no single player on Baylor whose loss for a game would cause them to lose a B12 game.


But if it were to happen and they lost you can bet that some Baylor fans would try to claim that on message boards.


taropatch



Joined: 24 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: 01/29/19 1:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

linkster wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:

There is probably no single player on Baylor whose loss for a game would cause them to lose a B12 game.


But if it were to happen and they lost you can bet that some Baylor fans would try to claim that on message boards.


All WBB fans make such claims. Even some Non-Baylor fans claim that Cox's failure to make a road trip last year resulted in a loss at UCLA. Looking at the bigger picture or post-season, I think a Cox injury would adversely affect this team. She is the most consistent contributer. Last year when PG Wallace went down with the ACL at the end of the regular season, Baylor's chances to advance to the F4 went down the tubes.


taropatch



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PostPosted: 01/29/19 1:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
Marquette stays at 10th - works for me - never expected them to get this high in the polls Smile. The MU men moved to 10th this week in the AP poll also so they are currently the only school with Men's and Women's programs in the top 10. And yes I know tons of schools have done this before MU but it's a big deal for me as the MU Women have never been rated this high Smile. And it's bringing more media attention to the Women's team that both teams are in the top now at least locally. And hopefully this increased local media attention will translate to larger crowds for the last 4 home games.


Congratulations to the Golden Eagles. Looking at the history of their post-season, the best they've done in the NCAA's is five trips to the 2nd round. So that means Sweet 16 is the next step up the ladder. As for the men, I watched a Youtube finish of the 1977 title season which I did not recall but I had to have watched it. Al Maguire looked so young and I had as much hair then as the players did.


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 01/31/19 3:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I found out who the last #1 team to lose to an unranked team was. In an article today ( https://www.ndinsider.com/basketball/womens/young-still-questionable-as-notre-dame-women-try-to-rebound/article_d7f38858-854f-5a54-8a65-2841a96c555c.html ) they listed the #1 teams in the last 20 years who lost to an unranked team:


According to ESPN, Notre Dame became the nation’s first No. 1-ranked women’s team in eight years to lose to an unranked club. That ended a streak of 198 wins by No. 1 teams in such matchups.


Over the last 20 years, No. 1-ranked women’s teams have lost to unranked opponents just four times — compared to 63 such outcomes on the men’s side. Baylor (2010-11), Tennessee (2005-06) and Connecticut (2003-04), like the Irish, have been victims once each.


I checked in the media guides of the teams. Baylor lost at Texas Tech. Tennessee lost at Kentucky. I'm not sure about UConn because UConn doesn't include their own rankings in past schedules (although they list the rankings of the teams that they played). Initially it looked like it was at ND, but when I double checked it with ND's media guide, it listed UConn as #4 for that game. It turns out that it was at Villanova that year, although UConn had 2 losses entering that game (Duke and ND), they had climbed back up to #1 just 5 days before that loss.


pilight



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PostPosted: 01/31/19 3:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It was at Villanova. The Hussies had just regained the #1 spot that week after Texas lost to Texas Tech.

You can see weekly rankings from past seasons in the NCAA WBB Media Guide

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/w_basketball_RB/2019/D1.pdf



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Of every soldier passing
myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 01/31/19 4:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

taropatch wrote:
linkster wrote:
ArtBest23 wrote:

There is probably no single player on Baylor whose loss for a game would cause them to lose a B12 game.


But if it were to happen and they lost you can bet that some Baylor fans would try to claim that on message boards.


All WBB fans make such claims. Even some Non-Baylor fans claim that Cox's failure to make a road trip last year resulted in a loss at UCLA. Looking at the bigger picture or post-season, I think a Cox injury would adversely affect this team. She is the most consistent contributer. Last year when PG Wallace went down with the ACL at the end of the regular season, Baylor's chances to advance to the F4 went down the tubes.


Cox does seem to be the glue player for this team. Most of the rest have a specific role to play, but her rebounding, movement and passing for her size makes it difficult to guard both her and Brown. I'm sometimes appalled at the bunnies she misses though. And I think Freshman Nalyssa (I think last name Smith) could actually fill in adequately in the post. They don't, however, have much behind the starters, in the guard department. I'm guessing they could go with three bigs if something happened to one of them. And I really like DiDi's role on the team - defensively hard to replace.



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Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 01/31/19 4:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

taropatch wrote:
Marquette Fan wrote:
Marquette stays at 10th - works for me - never expected them to get this high in the polls Smile. The MU men moved to 10th this week in the AP poll also so they are currently the only school with Men's and Women's programs in the top 10. And yes I know tons of schools have done this before MU but it's a big deal for me as the MU Women have never been rated this high Smile. And it's bringing more media attention to the Women's team that both teams are in the top now at least locally. And hopefully this increased local media attention will translate to larger crowds for the last 4 home games.


Congratulations to the Golden Eagles. Looking at the history of their post-season, the best they've done in the NCAA's is five trips to the 2nd round. So that means Sweet 16 is the next step up the ladder. As for the men, I watched a Youtube finish of the 1977 title season which I did not recall but I had to have watched it. Al Maguire looked so young and I had as much hair then as the players did.


Yeah someone told me the Sweet 16 was possibly aiming a little low for this team. I said they'd never made the Sweet 16 so that's my first hope for them this year - well after hosting first and second round games Smile. Al McGuire died far too young - wish he'd been around longer to call games and see the Al McGuire Center built at Marquette.


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 02/01/19 9:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
taropatch wrote:
Marquette Fan wrote:
Marquette stays at 10th - works for me - never expected them to get this high in the polls Smile. The MU men moved to 10th this week in the AP poll also so they are currently the only school with Men's and Women's programs in the top 10. And yes I know tons of schools have done this before MU but it's a big deal for me as the MU Women have never been rated this high Smile. And it's bringing more media attention to the Women's team that both teams are in the top now at least locally. And hopefully this increased local media attention will translate to larger crowds for the last 4 home games.


Congratulations to the Golden Eagles. Looking at the history of their post-season, the best they've done in the NCAA's is five trips to the 2nd round. So that means Sweet 16 is the next step up the ladder. As for the men, I watched a Youtube finish of the 1977 title season which I did not recall but I had to have watched it. Al Maguire looked so young and I had as much hair then as the players did.


Yeah someone told me the Sweet 16 was possibly aiming a little low for this team. I said they'd never made the Sweet 16 so that's my first hope for them this year - well after hosting first and second round games Smile. Al McGuire died far too young - wish he'd been around longer to call games and see the Al McGuire Center built at Marquette.


Personally, I hope Marquette does very well in the NCAA Tournament. Hopefully, they'll keep winning until they meet ND, whenever that may be... Wink


Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 02/01/19 1:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CBiebel wrote:
Marquette Fan wrote:
taropatch wrote:
Marquette Fan wrote:
Marquette stays at 10th - works for me - never expected them to get this high in the polls Smile. The MU men moved to 10th this week in the AP poll also so they are currently the only school with Men's and Women's programs in the top 10. And yes I know tons of schools have done this before MU but it's a big deal for me as the MU Women have never been rated this high Smile. And it's bringing more media attention to the Women's team that both teams are in the top now at least locally. And hopefully this increased local media attention will translate to larger crowds for the last 4 home games.


Congratulations to the Golden Eagles. Looking at the history of their post-season, the best they've done in the NCAA's is five trips to the 2nd round. So that means Sweet 16 is the next step up the ladder. As for the men, I watched a Youtube finish of the 1977 title season which I did not recall but I had to have watched it. Al Maguire looked so young and I had as much hair then as the players did.


Yeah someone told me the Sweet 16 was possibly aiming a little low for this team. I said they'd never made the Sweet 16 so that's my first hope for them this year - well after hosting first and second round games Smile. Al McGuire died far too young - wish he'd been around longer to call games and see the Al McGuire Center built at Marquette.


Personally, I hope Marquette does very well in the NCAA Tournament. Hopefully, they'll keep winning until they meet ND, whenever that may be... Wink


Thanks - I'd really like to see this senior class go out with a bang.


pilight



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PostPosted: 02/04/19 1:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3219960380

1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. UConn
6. Mississippi State
7. Oregon State
8. Marquette
9. NC State
10. Maryland

Entering: No. 25 Miami. Dropping out: BYU.



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Marlene watches from the wall
Her mocking smile says it all
As she records the rise and fall
Of every soldier passing
Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 02/04/19 7:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3219960380

1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. UConn
6. Mississippi State
7. Oregon State
8. Marquette
9. NC State
10. Maryland

Entering: No. 25 Miami. Dropping out: BYU.


Look at that team that's #8 this week - wow!!! I'm still in a bit of shock every time they move up in the polls.


CBiebel



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PostPosted: 02/04/19 10:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Marquette Fan wrote:
pilight wrote:
https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3219960380

1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. UConn
6. Mississippi State
7. Oregon State
8. Marquette
9. NC State
10. Maryland

Entering: No. 25 Miami. Dropping out: BYU.


Look at that team that's #8 this week - wow!!! I'm still in a bit of shock every time they move up in the polls.


I guess that's what happens when you have 5 starters with over 1,000 career points... Wink


Marquette Fan



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PostPosted: 02/05/19 7:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CBiebel wrote:
Marquette Fan wrote:
pilight wrote:
https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3219960380

1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. UConn
6. Mississippi State
7. Oregon State
8. Marquette
9. NC State
10. Maryland

Entering: No. 25 Miami. Dropping out: BYU.


Look at that team that's #8 this week - wow!!! I'm still in a bit of shock every time they move up in the polls.


I guess that's what happens when you have 5 starters with over 1,000 career points... Wink


Actually only 4 now - Blockton is coming off the bench since her injury. It's kind of nice to have a 2,000+ point scorer to bring off the bench Smile. I'm not sure yet if Kieger will eventually start her again or keep her coming off the bench.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 02/08/19 6:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

moving this from the game thread we hijacked:
pilight wrote:
myrtle wrote:
pilight wrote:
I don't understand UConn going ahead of Miss St


who have they beaten that is better than who UConn has beaten? And MissSt's loss is theoretically not as good as the teams UConn lost to... How would they do head to head? Hard to tell.


UConn has one win that's any good. Miss St has beaten more currently ranked teams than UConn has even played.


I should know better than to 'argue' with Pilight! But... IMO The top six teams are quite a large step ahead of the next six, who are quite a large step ahead of the next 12 or so. So Miss St lost to one team in the top tier. UConn lost to two teams in the top tier, but both of them are ranked higher than the one Miss St lost to. UConn also pounded Notre Dame who is still top tier, and beat Cal and DePaul who at the time were in the third tier but have since dropped down at least another level. Miss St has beaten four teams in the third tier. Marquette has edged itself up into the second tier...and came close to beating them on their home floor, even though they don't have any height to counter the big girl. The other three teams are pretty much only there because of weak competition in B12 and SEC this year.

Bottom line, I repeat, is that UConn beat one much better team than Miss. State and lost to two teams considered to be #1 & #2 in the country. Miss St's best win is Marquette, and lost to the only top tier team they played. To me, it's not even close. But here's Charlie's rationale, which he makes it to be much closer, http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25949122/notre-dame-loss-returns-uconn-no-1-seed-bracketology Anyway after they stomp on So Caro coming up, it will be clearer. [and where is that poster who thinks I hate UConn anyway?]



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pilight



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PostPosted: 02/08/19 6:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Notre Dame can't be that far of the pack if they're losing to UNC and Miami.

FWIW, the non-RPI rankings mostly have Miss St ranked ahead of UConn. Massey has Miss St #1...



_________________
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Her mocking smile says it all
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