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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1274
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Posted: 01/28/19 11:31 am ::: |
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I agree that there are a range of options although I see the options as three through seven.
There is historical precedent for a number one team losing and staying at number one but you can only do that if you lose to a very very good team which doesn't describe North Carolina, so despite the fact that there overall RPI is still number one they are going to have to move down.
Number two isn't really an option. You can justify ranking Notre Dame ahead of UConn when both had a single loss, each of which was to a very good team, and use overall RPI as a tiebreaker. But were Notre Dame as to this is one of which is to an unranked team, I think they have to move past UConn.
Had Stanford won, you would have six consecutive one last teams, and have to pick where Notre Dame should fall. Stanford's loss makes a little easier but, anticipating your argument, far from trivial. Notre Dame was several's thoughts ahead of Stanford, and both lost, so it seems likely that the order would remain, with Stanford somewhere below Notre Dame. That said, Notre Dame's loss was to a far weaker team than Stanford's. At least Utah is ranked. They don't have the name recognition so the ranking is slowly catching up to their true ability, but an argument can be made the Utah should be as high as 10th. If I were Stanford I would argue that losing to a team ranked in the top 10 is far better than losing to an unranked team, so you could argue that Notre Dame should move below Stanford.
I don't think that will happen.
Someone is sure to argue that you might justify having an undefeated team (NC State) behind a team with one loss it's too much to place them behind a team with two losses. NC State's record is a chimera. they've only got one win against a ranked team and that's a four-point win over number 23 Michigan State. Prior to yesterday's loss to North Carolina, all of the law offices of the seven teams ahead of NC State were two teams stronger than Michigan State. In other words, if all of those seven teams were playing NC State schedule they'd all be expected to be undefeated. (Oregon a slight exception as their single loss is to Michigan State).
I'm not sure how much slack voters can cut when a team loses because their best player is out and not available because of an injury on the day the game which means the team had virtually no time to practice playing without her. If it were a season-ending injury you might treated differently but given that she is expected back soon, I anticipate that the voters will leave Notre Dame ahead of NC State and Stanford whether they should be ahead or behind Louisville and Oregon.
My best guess is fourth.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32336
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Posted: 01/28/19 12:17 pm ::: |
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I agree: fourth.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63790
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Posted: 01/28/19 1:03 pm ::: |
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It wouldn’t surprise me if ND only falls to #3, because Creme already stated that he didn’t consider the NC game a bad loss. He’s influential among the AP crowd.
I consider it a bad enough loss to drop them at least to #4, even though they won the head-to-head with LOU. But LOU doesn’t have any bad losses.
The bad losses don’t show up until Oregon, who lost to Michigan St.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63790
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011 Posts: 1274
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Posted: 01/28/19 4:16 pm ::: |
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So I'm wrong and they went to fifth, but a close call 606 and 604 points (oops, I now see you already made that point)
Happy to see Utah getting some respect (thought they have some tough game coming up so we will soon see if it is deserved).
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3581
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004 Posts: 1055 Location: PA
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Posted: 01/28/19 5:17 pm ::: |
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Well, just for fun on McGraw's bench, I looked up the remaining games for the top 10 teams against ranked opponents (current rankings). Still quite a few left:
#1 Baylor at #23 Iowa St.
#1 Baylor at #12 Texas
#1 Baylor vs #12 Texas
#2 UConn at #3 Louisville
#2 UConn vs #16 S. Carolina
#3 Louisville vs #18 Syracuse
#3 Louisville vs #7 NC St
#4 Oregon at #8 Stanford
#4 Oregon vs #9 Oregon St
#4 Oregon at #9 Oregon St.
#4 Oregon at #21 ASU
#5 ND vs #24 FSU
#5 ND at #7 NC St.
#5 ND at #18 Syracuse
#6 MSU at #20 Texas A&M
#6 MSU at #16 S. Carolina
#7 NC St. at #24 FSU
#7 NC St. at #18 Syracuse
#8 Stanford vs #9 Oregon St.
#8 Stanford vs #21 ASU
#9 Oregon St vs #21 ASU
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004 Posts: 1055 Location: PA
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Posted: 01/28/19 5:27 pm ::: |
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Looking at the list I just posted, if Louisville can pull the upset against UConn and MSU gets upset at A&M or at S. Carolina, chances would be pretty good that no team would end the season with less than 2 losses.
Louisville would still have Syracuse, NC St. and eventually probably ND in the ACCT.
Oregon still has to play 3 games against top 10 opponents, 2 on the road, and 2 that are against their main rival.
NC St.'s conference schedule was seriously back-loaded.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32336
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Posted: 01/28/19 6:28 pm ::: |
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CBiebel wrote: |
Looking at the list I just posted, if Louisville can pull the upset against UConn and MSU gets upset at A&M or at S. Carolina, chances would be pretty good that no team would end the season with less than 2 losses.
Louisville would still have Syracuse, NC St. and eventually probably ND in the ACCT.
Oregon still has to play 3 games against top 10 opponents, 2 on the road, and 2 that are against their main rival.
NC St.'s conference schedule was seriously back-loaded. |
Baylor should have zero losses in conference. Texas is only ranked that high because their conference is so weak this year.
It would surprise me if ND loses another game.
Louisville's chance of upsetting UConn is about 1 in 10 and that is much higher odds than I would have given a month ago.
MsSU's chance of losing to A&M or S. Caro are about 1 in 50. Not as bad as the B12, but the SEC is extremely weak this year.
NC St's chance of staying undefeated are about 1 in 80. If they come out with less than 3 losses, that will be a minor miracle.
Oregon's chance of getting beaten again in the regular season is about 1 in 8. It could happen if the stars align right.
IMO of course.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 01/28/19 11:00 pm ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
CBiebel wrote: |
Looking at the list I just posted, if Louisville can pull the upset against UConn and MSU gets upset at A&M or at S. Carolina, chances would be pretty good that no team would end the season with less than 2 losses.
Louisville would still have Syracuse, NC St. and eventually probably ND in the ACCT.
Oregon still has to play 3 games against top 10 opponents, 2 on the road, and 2 that are against their main rival.
NC St.'s conference schedule was seriously back-loaded. |
Baylor should have zero losses in conference. Texas is only ranked that high because their conference is so weak this year.
It would surprise me if ND loses another game.
Louisville's chance of upsetting UConn is about 1 in 10 and that is much higher odds than I would have given a month ago.
MsSU's chance of losing to A&M or S. Caro are about 1 in 50. Not as bad as the B12, but the SEC is extremely weak this year.
NC St's chance of staying undefeated are about 1 in 80. If they come out with less than 3 losses, that will be a minor miracle.
Oregon's chance of getting beaten again in the regular season is about 1 in 8. It could happen if the stars align right.
IMO of course. |
You have to consider the possibility of injuries. It doesn't have to be season ending to result in a loss. Young's ankle is an example. Oregon has a couple players whose loss it would struggle to overcome. Louisvile would have trouble if Durr sprained her ankle. Etc. It's part of the game but it's a wildcard in projecting end of season records.
There is probably no single player on Baylor whose loss for a game would cause them to lose a B12 game.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5423
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Posted: 01/29/19 12:42 am ::: |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
There is probably no single player on Baylor whose loss for a game would cause them to lose a B12 game. |
But if it were to happen and they lost you can bet that some Baylor fans would try to claim that on message boards.
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taropatch
Joined: 24 Feb 2009 Posts: 814 Location: Kau Rubbish Dump
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Posted: 01/29/19 1:21 am ::: |
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linkster wrote: |
ArtBest23 wrote: |
There is probably no single player on Baylor whose loss for a game would cause them to lose a B12 game. |
But if it were to happen and they lost you can bet that some Baylor fans would try to claim that on message boards. |
All WBB fans make such claims. Even some Non-Baylor fans claim that Cox's failure to make a road trip last year resulted in a loss at UCLA. Looking at the bigger picture or post-season, I think a Cox injury would adversely affect this team. She is the most consistent contributer. Last year when PG Wallace went down with the ACL at the end of the regular season, Baylor's chances to advance to the F4 went down the tubes.
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taropatch
Joined: 24 Feb 2009 Posts: 814 Location: Kau Rubbish Dump
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004 Posts: 1055 Location: PA
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Posted: 01/31/19 3:11 pm ::: |
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I found out who the last #1 team to lose to an unranked team was. In an article today ( https://www.ndinsider.com/basketball/womens/young-still-questionable-as-notre-dame-women-try-to-rebound/article_d7f38858-854f-5a54-8a65-2841a96c555c.html ) they listed the #1 teams in the last 20 years who lost to an unranked team:
According to ESPN, Notre Dame became the nation’s first No. 1-ranked women’s team in eight years to lose to an unranked club. That ended a streak of 198 wins by No. 1 teams in such matchups.
Over the last 20 years, No. 1-ranked women’s teams have lost to unranked opponents just four times — compared to 63 such outcomes on the men’s side. Baylor (2010-11), Tennessee (2005-06) and Connecticut (2003-04), like the Irish, have been victims once each.
I checked in the media guides of the teams. Baylor lost at Texas Tech. Tennessee lost at Kentucky. I'm not sure about UConn because UConn doesn't include their own rankings in past schedules (although they list the rankings of the teams that they played). Initially it looked like it was at ND, but when I double checked it with ND's media guide, it listed UConn as #4 for that game. It turns out that it was at Villanova that year, although UConn had 2 losses entering that game (Duke and ND), they had climbed back up to #1 just 5 days before that loss.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66933 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/31/19 3:28 pm ::: |
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It was at Villanova. The Hussies had just regained the #1 spot that week after Texas lost to Texas Tech.
You can see weekly rankings from past seasons in the NCAA WBB Media Guide
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/w_basketball_RB/2019/D1.pdf
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32336
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Posted: 01/31/19 4:20 pm ::: |
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taropatch wrote: |
linkster wrote: |
ArtBest23 wrote: |
There is probably no single player on Baylor whose loss for a game would cause them to lose a B12 game. |
But if it were to happen and they lost you can bet that some Baylor fans would try to claim that on message boards. |
All WBB fans make such claims. Even some Non-Baylor fans claim that Cox's failure to make a road trip last year resulted in a loss at UCLA. Looking at the bigger picture or post-season, I think a Cox injury would adversely affect this team. She is the most consistent contributer. Last year when PG Wallace went down with the ACL at the end of the regular season, Baylor's chances to advance to the F4 went down the tubes. |
Cox does seem to be the glue player for this team. Most of the rest have a specific role to play, but her rebounding, movement and passing for her size makes it difficult to guard both her and Brown. I'm sometimes appalled at the bunnies she misses though. And I think Freshman Nalyssa (I think last name Smith) could actually fill in adequately in the post. They don't, however, have much behind the starters, in the guard department. I'm guessing they could go with three bigs if something happened to one of them. And I really like DiDi's role on the team - defensively hard to replace.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3581
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004 Posts: 1055 Location: PA
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Marquette Fan
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66933 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 02/04/19 1:10 pm ::: |
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https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3219960380
1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. UConn
6. Mississippi State
7. Oregon State
8. Marquette
9. NC State
10. Maryland
Entering: No. 25 Miami. Dropping out: BYU.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3581
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Posted: 02/04/19 7:57 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
https://apnews.com/afs:Content:3219960380
1. Baylor
2. Louisville
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. UConn
6. Mississippi State
7. Oregon State
8. Marquette
9. NC State
10. Maryland
Entering: No. 25 Miami. Dropping out: BYU. |
Look at that team that's #8 this week - wow!!! I'm still in a bit of shock every time they move up in the polls.
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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004 Posts: 1055 Location: PA
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Marquette Fan
Joined: 06 Mar 2005 Posts: 3581
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32336
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Posted: 02/08/19 6:36 pm ::: |
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moving this from the game thread we hijacked:
pilight wrote: |
myrtle wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
I don't understand UConn going ahead of Miss St |
who have they beaten that is better than who UConn has beaten? And MissSt's loss is theoretically not as good as the teams UConn lost to... How would they do head to head? Hard to tell. |
UConn has one win that's any good. Miss St has beaten more currently ranked teams than UConn has even played. |
I should know better than to 'argue' with Pilight! But... IMO The top six teams are quite a large step ahead of the next six, who are quite a large step ahead of the next 12 or so. So Miss St lost to one team in the top tier. UConn lost to two teams in the top tier, but both of them are ranked higher than the one Miss St lost to. UConn also pounded Notre Dame who is still top tier, and beat Cal and DePaul who at the time were in the third tier but have since dropped down at least another level. Miss St has beaten four teams in the third tier. Marquette has edged itself up into the second tier...and came close to beating them on their home floor, even though they don't have any height to counter the big girl. The other three teams are pretty much only there because of weak competition in B12 and SEC this year.
Bottom line, I repeat, is that UConn beat one much better team than Miss. State and lost to two teams considered to be #1 & #2 in the country. Miss St's best win is Marquette, and lost to the only top tier team they played. To me, it's not even close. But here's Charlie's rationale, which he makes it to be much closer, http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25949122/notre-dame-loss-returns-uconn-no-1-seed-bracketology Anyway after they stomp on So Caro coming up, it will be clearer. [and where is that poster who thinks I hate UConn anyway?]
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66933 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 02/08/19 6:50 pm ::: |
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Notre Dame can't be that far of the pack if they're losing to UNC and Miami.
FWIW, the non-RPI rankings mostly have Miss St ranked ahead of UConn. Massey has Miss St #1...
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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