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Overabundance of talent

 
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hyperetic



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 4:36 pm    ::: Overabundance of talent Reply Reply with quote

Some of you here vehemently disagree with the "overabundance of talent" part...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/duncansmith/2019/05/23/megan-gustafsons-release-by-the-dallas-wings-highlights-wnbas-need-for-more-roster-spots/amp/#aoh=15586474797059&amp_ct=1558647516081&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s
mavcarter



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 5:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Man, this has made it to Forbes. Shocked


CamrnCrz1974



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 05/23/19 5:48 pm    ::: Re: Overabundance of talent Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
Megan Gustafson's Release By The Dallas Wings Highlights WNBA's Need For More Roster Spots


Or it could potentially highlight the fact that Gustafson was a great college player who is not suited to the pro game (e.g., Kelly Faris, Adam Morrison)...

Or it could mean Dallas was not the proper spot for her...

Or it means that the players' union needs to push for guaranteed contracts for first round draft choices...


toad455



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 5:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Regarding expansion(with two teams), you basically take the 6th woman off of all current rosters and put them in as a starter. The last [two] cuts off of each team this year make a roster(L. Mitchell, Gustafson, Warley-Talbert, Ashley Walker, Lianne Harper, Kelsey Bone, etc.)



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pilight



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 5:58 pm    ::: Re: Overabundance of talent Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Or it could potentially highlight the fact that Gustafson was a great college player who is not suited to the pro game (e.g., Kelly Faris, Adam Morrison)...


Faris and Morrison made rosters and played multiple seasons.

The men's AP POY is often less effective as a pro (Denzel Valentine, Doug McDermott, etc) but they've never gotten cut before their rookie season



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tfan



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 6:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It's all relative. No matter how much talent there is it will always be a pyramid of levels (same small number at the top). People will praise someone at a lower level if they were a fan of a player in college and denigrate them if they weren't. They will bemoan the idea of having to watch someone play who was previously waived, even if that player is better than 99% of the players they routinely watch in college.


toad455



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 6:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Also with two more teams, teams can take more of a gamble on a player and try to develop them. This season teams don't have that luxury.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 7:02 pm    ::: Re: Overabundance of talent Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:

Or it means that the players' union needs to push for guaranteed contracts for first round draft choices...


Minor nit: while she was one of twelve draft invitees, Gustafson was a 2nd round pick (#17). It seems like the WNBA coaches/GMs had a feeling that the college national player of the year had a size, athleticism and skillset that would not transfer to the pros.


CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 7:16 pm    ::: Re: Overabundance of talent Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Or it could potentially highlight the fact that Gustafson was a great college player who is not suited to the pro game (e.g., Kelly Faris, Adam Morrison)...


Faris and Morrison made rosters and played multiple seasons.


The men's AP POY is often less effective as a pro (Denzel Valentine, Doug McDermott, etc) but they've never gotten cut before their rookie season[/quote]

Making rosters and playing multiple seasons is a bit misleading, pilight. First, NBA first round picks have guaranteed contracts (and had more years guaranteed in previous CBAs, IIRC). Morrison, as a #3 pick, had multiple guaranteed years.

Second, Faris averaged 2.1 ppg in four seasons (112 games played), while shooting 36.1 percent -- which is a demonstration that she was a great college player whose game did not translate well.

Making a roster does NOT equal being suited to the pro game (which is what I said in my initial post).

pilight wrote:
The men's AP POY is often less effective as a pro (Denzel Valentine, Doug McDermott, etc) but they've never gotten cut before their rookie season


Code:
1994–95    Joe Smith    Maryland    
1995–96    Marcus Camby    UMass    
1996–97    Tim Duncan    Wake Forest    
1997–98    Antawn Jamison    North Carolina    
1998–99    Elton Brand    Duke    
1999–00    Kenyon Martin    Cincinnati    
2000–01    Shane Battier    Duke    
2001–02    Jason Williams    Duke    
2002–03    David West    Xavier    
2003–04    Jameer Nelson    Saint Joseph's    
2004–05    Andrew Bogut    Utah    
2005–06    J. J. Redick    Duke    
2006–07    Kevin Durant    Texas    
2007–08    Tyler Hansbrough    North Carolina    
2008–09    Blake Griffin    Oklahoma    
2009–10    Evan Turner    Ohio State    
2010–11    Jimmer Fredette    BYU    
2011–12    Anthony Davis    Kentucky    
2012–13    Trey Burke    Michigan    
2013–14    Doug McDermott    Creighton    
2014–15    Frank Kaminsky    Wisconsin    
2015–16    Denzel Valentine    Michigan State
2016–17    Frank Mason III    Kansas    
2017–18    Jalen Brunson    Villanova    


Kind of a mixed bag from that group, but the recent trend has been for the AP POY to be less effective as a pro (last 5-6 years).


ClayK



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 9:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

To beat my drum again, the quality of the product is very, very, very important to the success of the WNBA. When you have lesser talent playing more minutes, the quality of the product will inevitably go down.



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 9:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
To beat my drum again, the quality of the product is very, very, very important to the success of the WNBA. When you have lesser talent playing more minutes, the quality of the product will inevitably go down.


So, based on your logic, shouldn't we reduce the league to six teams to make the quality of play twice as high?



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pilight



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 9:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
To beat my drum again, the quality of the product is very, very, very important to the success of the WNBA. When you have lesser talent playing more minutes, the quality of the product will inevitably go down.


The decrease in talent from adding a couple of teams would be so slight as to be impossible to notice.

Take a random group of 250 people. Out of that group you'll have 50-60 women between the ages of 18 and 45. Hold tryouts and choose the best 11 athletes as a basketball team. Put them in a four team league of other teams of similar construction. At the end of the season choose an All Star Team, the best players at each position. This is the first generation All Star team.

Put the first generation All Star team in a four team league with three other first generation All Star teams. At the end of the season, choose an All Star team of the All Star teams. This will be the second generation All Star team.

Put that team in a four team league with other such teams and after the season choose an All Star team from them. By now we should have a pretty decent team, don't you think? All the people who really can't play will have been weeded out at the very least.

Repeat the process twice more to get to the fifth generation All Star team. After that many iterations we should be down to all good players. If we took the fifth generation All Stars and said these players are good enough to play in our professional league, how many teams do you think we would have?

The correct answer is about 1250 teams. Each of the fifth generation All Star teams would represent 256,000 people. To get to our current number of teams, each of which represent about 26 million people, you would have to continue through about 8.5 generations. Obviously at that point the difference between players who make it and those who don't is infinitesimal. It would be like having every woman run a 100m dash. The difference between the 132nd fastest (completing the 12th team) and the 500th fastest would probably be less than a hundredth of a second. It certainly wouldn't be a tenth of a second.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 05/23/19 11:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
ClayK wrote:
To beat my drum again, the quality of the product is very, very, very important to the success of the WNBA. When you have lesser talent playing more minutes, the quality of the product will inevitably go down.


So, based on your logic, shouldn't we reduce the league to six teams to make the quality of play twice as high?


If you reduced it to two teams, every night would be like a competitive all-star game. And the entire season would be the WNBA finals.


hyperetic



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PostPosted: 05/24/19 2:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I personally think there is enough talent floating around for two more competitive teams. There will always be some team at the bottom. That's the nature of season records. Do they put up a good fight when they play? Are they working to improve?
toad455



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PostPosted: 05/24/19 3:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Expansion teams always have it rough. No stars join expansion teams. Always takes a few years to build up their rosters.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 05/24/19 3:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

toad455 wrote:
Expansion teams always have it rough. No stars join expansion teams. Always takes a few years to build up their rosters.


The league has had 10 expansion teams in its history. 70% of them were playoff teams within their first three seasons.



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snlMINAJ



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PostPosted: 05/24/19 4:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

i think 1 more team right now (within next year or 2) is obvious. adding 2 teams, to me, would be debatable.


Howee



Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: 05/24/19 5:06 pm    ::: Re: Overabundance of talent Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Quote:
Megan Gustafson's Release By The Dallas Wings Highlights WNBA's Need For More Roster Spots


Or it could potentially highlight the fact that Gustafson was a great college player who is not suited to the pro game (e.g., Kelly Faris, Adam Morrison)...

Or it could mean Dallas was not the proper spot for her...

Or it means that the players' union needs to push for guaranteed contracts for first round draft choices...


I'd be inclined to pick Door #2: "not the right spot"? Frankly, I don't get why Megan didn't earn a spot when players like Stephanie Mavunga or even (my beloved) Courtney Paris DID make rosters--in my opinion, she can do what they do, and do it better.

Yep, not all Highly Accomplished/Touted College Players translate to the pro level, but I believe Megan will get there. She wasn't a flash in the pan. Her credentials were legitimate: leading all-time scorer at a top P5 school, etc., etc.; she may be delayed, but should not be denied, imo.

Thinking of Iowa--whatever became of Ally Disterhoft? She's the Iowa scorer whose record Megan broke, and as a 6' guard with a ton of talent, I always thought I'd see her playing professionally.



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Last edited by Howee on 05/24/19 10:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
toad455



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PostPosted: 05/24/19 6:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Meghan would have made the roster if not for the trades of Harrison & Imani McGee-Stafford.



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StevenHW



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PostPosted: 05/24/19 6:22 pm    ::: Re: Overabundance of talent Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
[snip]...Thinking of Iowa--whatever became of Ally Disterhoff? She's the Iowa scorer whose record Megan broke, and as a 6' guard with a ton of talent, I always thought I'd see her playing professionally.


Ally is now in the financial services industry.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ally-disterhoft

Here's her WNBA Draft profile from 2017...

https://www.wnba.com/draft2017profile/ally-disterhoft/



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Howee



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PostPosted: 05/24/19 10:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks, Steven. Cool



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