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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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 Posted: 07/17/18 9:59 pm ::: Odds of Trump leaving office |
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I have a thread on the WNBA Board regarding odds. Today I hijacked my own thread to talk about Trump. The discussion belongs here.
calbearman76 wrote:
Thanks Huskies fan for listing the odds earlier. I say with all sincerity that after yesterday's performance by Trump and his absurd walk back today the last thing on my mind was WNBA odds. I am truly concerned for the fate of our country and the possibility of a new corrupt axis between Trump and Putin that divvies up the world. Watching some Republicans come out to give a tepid rebuke is just sad. I realize they have their own agenda and so McConnell sees his number one objective is getting lifetime judge appointments through this year and his number two objective is to try to hold on to the Senate for 2 more years. But that means nothing if we wind up with the same kind of cleptocracy as Russia where the rule of law is merely to attack dissidents and protect power.
So today's line is when Trump's presidency will end.
2018 15/1
2019 4/1
2020 6/1
2021 or later 2/5
I will take 2019, and go so far as to predict that he has just 401 days left (August 23). And while I won't have any money on it I consider this the most important bet of my life.
Back to the WNBA tomorrow.
space junkie wrote:
If Americans didn't want America to be united with Putin & Russia, then they shouldn't have voted for Trump, but America decided that a potential puppet of Vladmir Putin was the most qualified person to run the United States, over Hilary Clinton, or any of the third-party candidates.
calbearman76 wrote:
I don't disagree (and the double negative is intentional.) But just because the country made a terrible mistake Trump still has to faithfully perform his duties in the best interests of this country. I believe that as we learn more it will become clear that Trump is working for his own interests. not the country's. If this were a matter of different policy I'd just say the Democrats need to get their act together and win the next election. If Trump leaves office then Mike Pence will be president and that is not a great outcome. But for all my disagreements with him on seemingly every issue, I believe that he wants this country to grow and prosper, and he will do what he believes is in the best interests of the country. After 18 months of Trump I am quite sure that is not what drives Trump.
I know I started this rant here but this discussion belongs in Area 51 so I will copy this post to a new thread on that board, and I would hope that subsequent commentary would continue there.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 07/17/18 10:06 pm ::: Re: Odds of Trump leaving office |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
| I will take 2019, and go so far as to predict that he has just 401 days left (August 23). And while I won't have any money on it I consider this the most important bet of my life. |
I'll take the over. I predict there is virtually no chance of him leaving office before the end of his term.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 07/17/18 10:24 pm ::: |
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One note on the odds I included:
So today's line is when Trump's presidency will end.
2018 15/1
2019 4/1
2020 6/1
2021 or later 2/5
I made up these odds, sort of. There are several actual lines available for similar bets. One bookmaker has a line on Trump to serve out his full term at 3/10, with the no at 11/5. Another puts the chances of Trump being impeached at 10/1 in 2018, 4/1 in 2019, 4/1 in 2020 and not impeached at 4/1. There also lines on conviction by the senate (6/1) and resignation (5/2).
In my mind if the democrats win the House it will be almost impossible to stop either an impeachment or resignation. My hope is that the democrats will not rush into impeachment, but hopefully with a Mueller report in hand the House will be able sufficiently flesh out articles of impeachment by the summer. At that point I hope that the senior Republican senators will band together to "save the Union." They will also know that their only hope of holding the Senate in 2020 (I don't think they will lose it in 2018) will be to run from Trump and put lipstick on the Mike Pence pig.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 07/18/18 12:15 am ::: |
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Based on facts (not hysteria) as of today:
- 100% that he finishes his term.
- 65% that he gets reelected, in which case 100% that he finishes his second term.
None of this is considering death or illness, but just not finishing for legal or political reasons. As to those possibilities:
- 2% chance that Mueller charges Trump with any crime, and only then if Trump is foolish enough to sit for a perjury trap interview.
- 1% chance that a Democrat House would impeach.
- 0% chance that 2/3 of the Senate would vote to convict even if the House impeaches.
The majority in this country are not hysterical left wing resisters/ideologues or fangirls of the Trump-deranged left wing media and talking heads.
Why is it that sometime during 2016 and ever since, the non-Communist leader of Russia has become Satan incarnate to the left wing, when Obama pooh-poohed the danger of Russia for all his eight years and, prior to that, left wingers were affirmatively enamored for much of the 20th Century with the Communist leaders of Russia (USSR), many of whom were the greatest mass murderers, genocidal dictators, and totalitarian oppressors in modern world history? Just wondering.
And, ever since Roosevelt met with Stalin at Yalta, every president of the Unites States has met with his Russian counterpart in summit meetings to discuss war and nuclear armaments -- important matters of world survival -- not ticky-tack matters of routine and bilateral espionage such as disinformation, election tampering and other dirty tricks, which, however, are the only things of interest to today's shallow and clickbait-crazed media and agenda-driven "journalists". |
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: 07/18/18 12:28 am ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
One note on the odds I included:
So today's line is when Trump's presidency will end.
2018 15/1
2019 4/1
2020 6/1
2021 or later 2/5
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Why do the odds increase so much after what would be his re-election? I assume that 2/5 means it is more likely than not, that he will be impeached - AFTER his re-election. Will Meuller not be releasing his report before 2021? Seems ridiculous. If Meuller doesn't have a report out by the next election he and his team should be replaced in entirety.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 07/18/18 1:32 am ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| calbearman76 wrote: |
One note on the odds I included:
So today's line is when Trump's presidency will end.
2018 15/1
2019 4/1
2020 6/1
2021 or later 2/5
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Why do the odds increase so much after what would be his re-election? I assume that 2/5 means it is more likely than not, that he will be impeached - AFTER his re-election. Will Meuller not be releasing his report before 2021? Seems ridiculous. If Meuller doesn't have a report out by the next election he and his team should be replaced in entirety. |
To be clear 2/5 in betting parlance means that if you expect Trump to finish out his first term, you would have to bet $5 to win 2. Said another way he has roughly a 70% chance that he will finish his first term. This is not saying that he will be impeached after 2021, only that he will still be in office as of January 1, 2021.
For what it's worth there are also odds on which party will win in 2020, with the democrats as a slight favorite (-125).
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 07/18/18 10:10 am ::: |
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I see 0 chance he leaves office before the end of a term, whether than is 2021 or 2025. I can't think of a single possible finding that would lead to him resigning or any Republican voting to impeach. He is the Republican party.
I think its pretty much only even odds that he is beaten in 2020. Maybe slightly more likely that he is re-elected than not.
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StevenHW
Joined: 25 Jul 2005
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| Posted: 07/18/18 3:41 pm ::: |
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| I haven't checked, but is there a similar odds being posted (regarding Trump leaving office early or not) in England? Don't they pretty much have handicapped odds on anything?
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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| Posted: 07/18/18 5:10 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Based on facts (not hysteria) as of today:
- 100% that he finishes his term.
- 65% that he gets reelected, in which case 100% that he finishes his second term.
None of this is considering death or illness, but just not finishing for legal or political reasons. As to those possibilities:
- 2% chance that Mueller charges Trump with any crime, and only then if Trump is foolish enough to sit for a perjury trap interview.
- 1% chance that a Democrat House would impeach.
- 0% chance that 2/3 of the Senate would vote to convict even if the House impeaches.
The majority in this country are not hysterical left wing resisters/ideologues or fangirls of the Trump-deranged left wing media and talking heads.
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Unlike historically noted "hysterical" "fangirls" Barry Goldwater, Hugh Scott, and John Jacob Rhodes.
Sadly, the GOP no longer has men of integrity. The USA will therefore suffer the consequences of having this slimeball pussy lousy negotiating pathologically lying emoluments clause grifting debt running up narcissistic authoritarian Putin blowing traitor in the WH, for a few more years than necessary.
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 07/18/18 5:57 pm ::: |
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depends on midterms.
Blue wave - 50% chance of impeachment
No blue wave- 95% chance he finishes out his term
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Hawkeye
Joined: 10 Aug 2010
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| Posted: 07/18/18 6:12 pm ::: |
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| If the Democrats take both the House and the Senate, Trump is toast.
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J-Spoon
Joined: 31 Jan 2009
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| Posted: 07/18/18 10:05 pm ::: |
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| I know he is an egomaniac, but if things with the economy went south, his popularity plummeted or we found ourselves in some awful International crisis I could totally see him one day saying "Fu#$ this Sh!+ I'm outta here!".
Last edited by J-Spoon on 07/19/18 4:08 am; edited 1 time in total |
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tfan
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| Posted: 07/19/18 12:52 am ::: |
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| PUmatty wrote: |
I see 0 chance he leaves office before the end of a term, whether than is 2021 or 2025. I can't think of a single possible finding that would lead to him resigning or any Republican voting to impeach. He is the Republican party.
I think its pretty much only even odds that he is beaten in 2020. Maybe slightly more likely that he is re-elected than not. |
I don't see him being re-elected unless his approval ratings improve. He has never had more than 50% approval in combined poll results and after his first few months in office his disapproval rating is always over 50% and his approval never even reaches 43%. If the electoral college can overcome that, I can't understand why the Democrats don't at least make a vigorous case for removing it, even if they don't have the votes to do so right now.
No post-WWII president has had worse approval than Trump, even the non-elected Gerald Ford who took office in a cloud of scandal.
Although their appeared to be "lying to pollsters" in the pre-election polls, and maybe that is still going on. And his approval rating is higher among likely voters and some of those polls are poll all "adults".
Five Thirty Eight says "And their fate will be tied to his: Historically, the president’s approval ratings have been one of the best indicators of how his party will fare in congressional elections.'
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 07/22/18 8:43 am ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
I see 0 chance he leaves office before the end of a term, whether than is 2021 or 2025. I can't think of a single possible finding that would lead to him resigning or any Republican voting to impeach. He is the Republican party.
I think its pretty much only even odds that he is beaten in 2020. Maybe slightly more likely that he is re-elected than not. |
I don't see him being re-elected unless his approval ratings improve. He has never had more than 50% approval in combined poll results and after his first few months in office his disapproval rating is always over 50% and his approval never even reaches 43%. If the electoral college can overcome that, I can't understand why the Democrats don't at least make a vigorous case for removing it, even if they don't have the votes to do so right now.
No post-WWII president has had worse approval than Trump, even the non-elected Gerald Ford who took office in a cloud of scandal.
Although their appeared to be "lying to pollsters" in the pre-election polls, and maybe that is still going on. And his approval rating is higher among likely voters and some of those polls are poll all "adults".
Five Thirty Eight says "And their fate will be tied to his: Historically, the president’s approval ratings have been one of the best indicators of how his party will fare in congressional elections.' |
His approval ratings and favorability ratings are no lower now than when he was elected.
As for the electoral college, there is less than zero chance it goes away. You need 38 states to vote to do that. Setting aside party affiliations for a minute, why would any small state vote to get rid of a system that over-values their votes?
The better move would be to expand the House of Representatives so there is equal representation there, then adjust electoral college totals accordingly. The system was set up to give small states outsized representation, but only a little bit. The two Senators account for that - gross House over- and under-representation are nowhere in the Constitution. In fact, it suggests just the opposite.
To be clear, I don't think that will happen either.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 07/23/18 9:05 am ::: |
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| Least amount of bills signed isn't a bad thing
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 08/22/18 11:39 pm ::: |
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Because of the events of this week I checked to see the current odds on Donald Trump:
These lines are posted on Bet365, but a word of warning that you can only bet the "yes" side. The only way to make an "honest line is to allow people to bet either side.
Trump to be impeached - 2/3
Trump to resign - 9/4
Trump to be convicted - 6/1
Clearly the chances of Trump surviving are dropping, but there is still a way to go.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 08/22/18 11:56 pm ::: |
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Here are a few odds on the midterm elections:
Control of House
Democrats 2/5
Republicans 2/1
No Majority 40/1
Senate
Republicans more than 50 seats 4/11
Republicans exactly 50 seats - 7/2
Republicans less than 50 seats - 7/1
And for 2020 Presidential election
Republican - 5/4
Democrat - 4/5
Independent -25/1
Top Candidates
Trump 3/2
Harris 10/1
Warren 10/1
Sandes 14/1
Biden 16/1
Pence 20/1
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Hawkeye
Joined: 10 Aug 2010
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| Posted: 08/23/18 5:45 pm ::: |
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Trump's ego will never allow him to resign. He could very well be impeached after the next congress takes their seats in January, however it's unlikely the Democrats will get to 67 votes in the senate, so it will be Clinton all over again. Impeached but not removed.
Trump will then be emboldened and will run again in 2020. Expect it but expect another RNC circus as many will see his as weak enough to take out in a primary fight.
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sambista
Joined: 25 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 08/23/18 8:40 pm ::: |
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| Hawkeye wrote: |
Trump's ego will never allow him to resign. He could very well be impeached after the next congress takes their seats in January, however it's unlikely the Democrats will get to 67 votes in the senate, so it will be Clinton all over again. Impeached but not removed.
Trump will then be emboldened and will run again in 2020. Expect it but expect another RNC circus as many will see his as weak enough to take out in a primary fight. |
i feel just the opposite. ego aside, trump is a punk-ass bitch. he'll duck and run before he stands and fights. threatens lawsuits, does nothing. talks big, but never, ever has he actually fired someone in his administration. he always has someone else do it. he's a punk-ass bitch. all bark and not even the teeth to bite.
bottom line, trump isn't the real problem. we americans are. we let this happen, and we're letting ignorant, intolerant people climb out of their dark places and destroy the things we have at least tried to stand for in this country.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 08/23/18 9:13 pm ::: |
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| sambista wrote: |
| Hawkeye wrote: |
Trump's ego will never allow him to resign. He could very well be impeached after the next congress takes their seats in January, however it's unlikely the Democrats will get to 67 votes in the senate, so it will be Clinton all over again. Impeached but not removed.
Trump will then be emboldened and will run again in 2020. Expect it but expect another RNC circus as many will see his as weak enough to take out in a primary fight. |
i feel just the opposite. ego aside, trump is a punk-ass bitch. he'll duck and run before he stands and fights. threatens lawsuits, does nothing. talks big, but never, ever has he actually fired someone in his administration. he always has someone else do it. he's a punk-ass bitch. all bark and not even the teeth to bite.
Two sides on the same issue, both reasonable positions. That is why there is a betting line. For myself, today is exactly 1 year from the day I expected Trump to leave office (see first post in this thread) and I now believe it won't take that long. Between Cohen, Pecker, the Manhattan DA and the New York AG, the drip is becoming a torrent. There is still an election to win in November, but the Republicans in the Senate will not stand in front of this raging river of sludge.
bottom line, trump isn't the real problem. we americans are. we let this happen, and we're letting ignorant, intolerant people climb out of their dark places and destroy the things we have at least tried to stand for in this country. |
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 08/23/18 9:15 pm ::: |
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| double post
Last edited by calbearman76 on 08/23/18 9:25 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 08/23/18 9:21 pm ::: |
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| sambista wrote: |
| Hawkeye wrote: |
Trump's ego will never allow him to resign. He could very well be impeached after the next congress takes their seats in January, however it's unlikely the Democrats will get to 67 votes in the senate, so it will be Clinton all over again. Impeached but not removed.
Trump will then be emboldened and will run again in 2020. Expect it but expect another RNC circus as many will see his as weak enough to take out in a primary fight. |
i feel just the opposite. ego aside, trump is a punk-ass bitch. he'll duck and run before he stands and fights. threatens lawsuits, does nothing. talks big, but never, ever has he actually fired someone in his administration. he always has someone else do it. he's a punk-ass bitch. all bark and not even the teeth to bite.
bottom line, trump isn't the real problem. we americans are. we let this happen, and we're letting ignorant, intolerant people climb out of their dark places and destroy the things we have at least tried to stand for in this country. |
These are two reasoned positions that come up with different conclusions. That is why there is a line. Today is exactly 1 year from the date I said Trump would leave office. With the events of this week, including the flipping of David Pecker and Michael Cohen as well as the New York state investigation of the Trump Foundation and the Manhattan DA investigation of the Trump organization, I only wonder if I gave him too much time.
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sambista
Joined: 25 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 08/23/18 9:28 pm ::: |
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| . . . and if trump were to step down, he could control the narrative ("for the good of the country," i'm sure) better than if he were kicked to the curb, or just kicked but still holding office.
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