RebKell's Junkie Boards

[tfan]

as of 06/23/2018 all-stars based on PIE (Games, MPG):

1) Dearica Hamby (14, 12.9) 21.5
2) Liz Cambage (11,30.4) 20.2
3) Elena Delle Donne (9, 29.0) 20.0
4) Candace Parker (9, 27.6) 19.8
5) Sylvia Fowles (12, 32.5) 18.5
6) Angel McCoughtry (13, 29.9) 18.1
7) Brittney Griner (14, 33.6) 17.4
8 ) Nneka Ogwumike (12, 30.9) 17.4
9) Breanna Stewart (13, 32.5) 17.3
10) Cheyenne Parker (12, 21.8 ) 16.6
11) A'ja Wilson (14, 31.4) 16.2
12) Kayla Alexander (11, 9.4) 15.7
13) Diana Taurasi (14, 31.4) 15.3
14) Skylar Diggins-Smith (11, 34.7) 15.3
15) Tina Charles (11, 33.6) 15.3
16) Chelsea Gray (12, 31.4) 14.8
17) Glory Johnson (6, 21.7) 14.8
18 ) Tiffany Hayes (11 , 30.0) 14.8
19 ) Natasha Howard (13, 27.4) 14.7
20) Jewell Loyd (13, 30.6) 14.7
21) Chiney Ogwumike (11 28.8 ) 14.5
22) Natalie Achonwa (13 ,23.9) 13.9
23) Cecelia Zandalasini (8, 12.5) 13.8
24) DeWanna Bonner (14, 32.2) 13.4

eliminating the 3 players [Hamby, Alexander and Zandalasini] who play only a quarter or less of the game adds:


25) LaToya Sanders (8, 19.2) 13.2
26) Alyssa Thomas (9, 31.1) 13.1
27) Maya Moore (12, 34.0) 12.9

Make it a requirement that you have to average at least 26 minutes a game and the rest of the non-star names except Natasha Howard [Parker, Achonwa, Sanders] are eliminated along with Glory Johnson, and added are:

28 ) Candace Dupree (11, 30.1) 12.5
29) Courtney Williams (12, 26.6) 12.1
30) Kia Nurse (11, 26.2) 11.8
31) Jasmine Thomas (12, 26.9) 11.4

[ClayK]

Good list: What's the formula?

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[root_thing]

[ClayK]

Almost completely based on offense, which is the flaw in most of these. And blocked shots, like steals, aren't even necessarily a good measure of defensive impact.

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[Randy]

It is telling that a block has a weighting of .5 meaning its value is only half that of a defensive rebound or a steal which have a weighting of one. This makes sense because a steal, represents a possession while a block frequently ends with in the opposing team's hands anyway. Brittany Griner get 3.1 blocks per game which are worth less in the PIE formula than Gabby Williams' 1.8 steals per game.

What doesn't make a lot of sense to me in the formula is that an offensive rebound is only given a weight of .5, even though, it too represents another possession of the ball the same as a defensive rebound or a steal.

To improve the formula, I would suggest they start tracking deflections as they are probably worth nearly as much as a block.

[root_thing]

[Richyyy]

Baseball's easier because so much of it is essentially individualised. It's a bunch of singular athletic acts within a vaguely team framework, whereas basketball is a true team sport. And defense gets even more complicated. Whether Judge makes that catch and whether Taurasi makes a shot are yes or no plays with a somewhat quantifiable percentages if you have enough data, but unless you know exactly what a team's defensive scheme is you often don't know who screwed up. And blame is often shared on some level as well. Maybe Player A got beat off the dribble, but maybe Player B was too slow to help and Player C was too far off their man which meant Player A had to angle themselves differently to start with. Maybe the defender did what looked like a nice job sliding over a screen and staying on a player's hip - but the scheme and the scouting report said he/she should've gone under and offered that player the jump shot because they're greedy and not as good of a shooter as they think they are.

Most of baseball is did you hit/catch/throw/whatever the ball when you were given the chance to? Recent years have shown you can go into a hell of a lot of depth on those numbers, but the game's made for it, unlike basketball defense.

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[tfan]

[root_thing]

[Randy]

I think it is true that the teams have learned that putting too much effort into crashing the boards means they aren't getting back on D. So teams are unwise to have several players going for ORs. However, that doesn't negate the value of a single OR. Once you have the ball - getting back on D is not the issue.

[root_thing]

[Randy]

I forget - in the case the recipient drops the pass - do they get the TO, or is it the passer?

As for assists, I suppose one argument against full weighting for an assist would be that you would be giving 3 points for one 2 point basket. However, that's not particularly compelling. In the end, I agree the numbers in the formula were probably not selected on any rigorous basis, but rather a subjective notion as to the relative importance of each one of the items included.

It does seem that the PIE formula already favors frontcourt players over backcourt players and posts in particular (11 of the first 12). The first guard to appear on the ranking is Taurasi at 13. So maybe the full weighting of the assist and derating of the OR was to level the playing field between guards and the frontcourt players. Who knows?

[Richyyy]

[root_thing]

All these combination stats: PIE, PER, EFF, seem to favor frontcourt players. People playing closer to the basket tend to shoot higher percentages, and it's easier to get a rebound than an assist. Pass-first point guards usually have the lowest ratings.

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