RebKell's Junkie Boards

[calbearman76]

August 15

Washington 11 @Indiana 164.5
Las Vegas 11 New York 169.5

Washington needs this win to maintain their hope of getting a double bye. Indiana has been playing better down the stretch. I don't foresee the Fever winning this game, but I can't lay 11 on the road. Pass

Las Vegas looks to be in the perfect spot tonight. They are the better team, they need the game for their playoff chances, the Liberty are on a back-to-back and have nothing to play for. And last night the Liberty actually put forth a decent effort, even if they did lose their tenth straight. I like the Aces to win handily. I will also take the over with a little less conviction. In the last game these teams played the score was 88-78, and the other game was 78-63. But the Liberty have scored 80 in 4 of their ten losses which should be enough.

Last night I went 2-1 including the upset win by Chicago. That brings me to 75-71-1. Now it is off to Las Vegas.

[cthskzfn]

August 15

Washington 11 @Indiana 164.5
Las Vegas 11 New York 169.5


hmmmm...i want to take both favorites, but i'm ascared.

NO PLAYS

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[SportsGuru]

[calbearman76]

1-1 tonight. I wouldn't have taken the over if I had known Tina Charles was out, but then again I was lucky the Aces held on for the cover (The line actually moved up to 13.5 before game time.) 76-72-1 for the season. The last three days I will try to at least climb to the 52.38% breakeven mark, which means 6-2, assuming 8 plays.

[cthskzfn]

[Randy]

Go broke or go home!

[cthskzfn]

Thanks for the advice from all the non-participants.

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[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

August 17

Washington 4 Los Angeles 158.5
Connecticut 7.5 Minnesota 161.5
Dallas 4 Las Vegas 175
Seattle 15.5 New York 163.5
Phoenix 4 Atlanta 167.5

Final weekend opens with several games that are critical for seeding. Washington can wrap up a bye and keep their slim hopes for a double bye alive with a win over LA. The Sparks pretty much have to believe they need a sweep over the Mystics and Sun to get a bye. I expect a hard fought game with lots of defense. I'll take the Mystics and the under.


The Lynx have not been this big an underdog all season. They were a 6 point dog at LA and lost by 8, a 5.5 point dog at Seattle and lost by 10, and they were a 5.5 in the first game at Connecticut and lost by 14. The Sun need two wins to assure themselves a bye (and could clinch a bye tonight). All the Lynx have to play for is a possible first round home game. The line is high but I will lay the 7.5.


The final playoff game will be pretty much decided tonight in Dallas. Wings win and they are in, lose and they will need to win their final game at Seattle while Las Vegas would have to lose at home to Atlanta. The Wings look to be in disarray having lost their last 9 games as well as a coach and very possibly their best player for next season. And Kaela Davis is out. Despite all the conspiracy theories, I believe Laimbeer and the Aces really want to make the playoffs. This is a young team that could be helped by winning. They won their last two over Indiana and New York, and Dallas doesn't look like they are playing much better. I'll take the Aces and the under.

Seattle can wrap up the number 1 seed tonight. I'm not sure whether Tina Charles will play but I it probably won't matter. I can't lay 15.5 so I have to pass.

Atlanta has won 14 of 15 and yet they are an underdog at Phoenix. The Dream need the win for their fight to secure a double bye. The Mercury beat LA in their last game, but otherwise they have not played well in the past month. These two teams split their first two games (both in Atlanta) and both were played in the seveties. I like the Dream as an underdog and I also like the under..

[cthskzfn]

August 17

Washington 4 Los Angeles 158.5
Connecticut 7.5 Minnesota 161.5
Dallas 4 Las Vegas 175
Seattle 15.5 New York 163.5
Phoenix 4 Atlanta 167.5

Nothing to say.

The plays:

CT -7.5
LV +4

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[calbearman76]

August 18

Chicago 4 Indiana 166.5

I almost forgot about this game. The Sky have played well of late, 5-4 in their last 9. Indiana has lost its last 4, all by double digits. In a game only a bettor could like, I'll take the Sky to continue their decent play.

Last night I tried to press, making 7 plays in an attempt to get above water. A 2-5 night leaves me at 78-77-1 for the year.

[cthskzfn]

[calbearman76]

Easy 9 point victory today. Uhh … maybe having a favorite win in double OT isn't that easy, but every so often we need a little luck. 79-77-1.

[cthskzfn]

Yeah. Seems i'm usually holding the underdog in that scenario.

1-0, 41-34-1 [36-18, 9-8]

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[calbearman76]

August 19

Connecticut 5.5 Los Angeles 161
Atlanta 4.5 @Las Vegas 174.5
Phoenix 12.5 New York 165.5
Chicago 8 Indiana 167.5
Seattle 7.5 Dallas 174.5
Washington 1 @Minnesota 159

Like Ted Williams when he hit .400, I will not sit on my record of over .500. I will do the equivalent of Williams playing both ends of a double header (he went 6-8 to wind up at.406) by making 10 plays.

The Sun and Sparks are effectively playing for a first round bye. The winner will get the 4 seed and the loser will be the 6 seed (assuming Phoenix beats New York). This should be a competitive game and if it is I expect the game to stay under, much the same way the Sparks-Mystics game did on Friday. LA and under.

Atlanta needs a win to get the second seed and a double bye. Las Vegas lost its shot at a playoff berth with their loss at Dallas. I'll take the Dream.

Phoenix will be home for a first round matchup against either Minnesota or Dallas. This could be the last game with a team called the New York Liberty. I suspect that Phoenix will be more interested in making sure the team is ready for a game on Tuesday than winning this game in a blowout. I'll take the Liberty and hope they will play hard the whole way.


Chicago and Indiana played a double overtime game yesterday and have to do it again today. I like the Sky today, but Amber Stocks showed yesterday that she was more interested in playing her bench than in winning. Allie Quigley played only 6 minutes in the first 3 quarters. Ironically the substitution patterns yesterday are just enough to get me on the Sky again today. Yesterday Dupree and Vivians played 47 minutes each and Achonwa played 45. In a double OT game five players accounted for more than 215 minutes of playing time. In contrast only two members of the Sky played more than 30 minutes (Vandersloot 40 and Deshields 38). Chicago and over.

Seattle has already wrapped up the number 1 seed and Dallas is the 8 seed with a game looming on Tuesday. The Storm certainly don't want any injuries, but since they won't be playing for a week I suspect they will give a strong effort. I'll take the Storm and I will also take the under.

Washington will have a chance at a double bye if Las Vegas beats Atlanta and they will probably know the outcome at halftime. Minnesota is the seven seed. This is likely the last home game for the Lynx (they would have to get to the semis to get another one) so I think they will give a decent effort but they are an old team that has to travel tomorrow for a game on Tuesday against anyone of 3 teams. I like Washington and the over.

[calbearman76]

The fate of some of these games can turn on a dime. With 75 seconds to go the Sun are up 82-72 and all I am thinking is, "don't foul and I can get out of this game with a split." Gray misses a 3 but gets her own rebound for a put back and a foul. In the last 70 seconds LA outscores the Sun 14-7 (an over/under pace of 756 if extended to a full game) so the under loses bad but LA covers. 1-1 so far today.

[calbearman76]

Great finish in the Liberty game. NY down 20 with 3:15 to go, outscores Phoenix 12-3 to lose by only 11 as a 12.5 dog. Indiana-Chicago flies over the total even though the wrong team won. And Atlanta pulls away late, so that puts my record at 4-2 for the day.

[cthskzfn]

August 19

Connecticut 5.5 Los Angeles 161
Atlanta 4.5 @Las Vegas 174.5
Phoenix 12.5 New York 165.5
Chicago 8 Indiana 167.5
Seattle 7.5 Dallas 174.5
Washington 1 @Minnesota 159

CT -5.5
ATL -4.5
167.5 Over

ETA: son of a bitch....i come back to my laptop 5 hours later to see my picks didn't post. Figures.

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[Richyyy]

[calbearman76]

Tremendous 4th quarter in the Seattle game, 14-5 Dallas. It is hard to only score 5 points against the vaunted Dallas defense, but Seattle can do just about everything this season. Seattle and over pushes my record to 6-2 on the day.

To Huskies fan, I know that has happened to me as well. 2-1 that could have been 3-0, nice way to move into the playoffs.

[calbearman76]

Regular season ends with Minnesota winning and the game going over, so a split. 7-3 to end the season, 86-80-1 (51.8%) One more win would have put me into the smallest possible plus, but after Atlanta had wrapped up the game in LV I actually bet the Lynx for the second half. So I am happy to have come up short.

Here are some rough odds to win the WNBA:

Seattle 8/5
Washington 5
Atlanta 5
Connecticut 6
Los Angeles 8
Minnesota 8
Phoenix 8
Dallas 30


Now it is almost time for the last Sharknado.

[calbearman76]

Official odds (per Pinnacle sports) for the WNBA title:

Seattle 19/10
Washington 5
Atlanta 5
Connecticut 6.5
Los Angeles 7
Minnesota 12.5
Phoenix 8
Dallas 30.5

Pinnacle generally has more generous odds than I see in Nevada on futures bets. No real value in any of the options. It also presupposes that LA will be roughly 5 over Minnesota and Phoenix will be roughly 8 over Dallas

[cthskzfn]

Ok, finished 41-34-1 for the reg. season.

Assuming a $100 wager per game, that's $4100-3740=$360 net. Not great, but above water.

Re: the playoff odds, makes no sense to me to bet any of the non-double bye teams, which renders the whole thing pointless imo.

I realize it's just a summer league, but single elimination for any round, let alone the first TWO rounds of the playoffs, is

That said, I'll be watching.

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[ClayK]

Good job on your season ... and thanks for sharing it. I loved this thread ...

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[calbearman76]

Playoffs
August 21

Phoenix 8 Dallas 176.5
Los Angeles 6 Minnesota 151.5

Phoenix has been the biggest beneficiary of the one and done playoff system. They are 4-0 including 3 wins on the road. Those 4 wins have been by 11, 7, 10 and 5. This game looks like it fits into the same position so the line of 8 points is right. As for the total, if I was looking at this game as an extension of the regular season I would agree with the line. But this is the playoffs, and that often means a little tightness and a little more defense. Last year Phoenix won its first round matchup 79-69 over Seattle. It isn't a strong play but I will take the under.

Los Angeles and Minnesota were expected to meet in the finals, not in the first round. Both teams have looked old at times and are still playing a more defensive style while most of the league has gone more offensive. These are the only two teams that allowed less than 79 points per game and they are also the only 2 playoff teams that averaged less than 80 points. I expect a spirited game, much like their 4 regular season games. LA was 3-1, winning 77-76 and losing 83-72 in Minnesota and sweeping both games at home, 77-69 and 79-57 at home. I'll take the Sparks as being the less "old" team. Before I reviewed the history I would have leaned to the over, but now I will pass on the total.


Phoenix-Dallas under 176.5
Los Angeles -6