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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/21/18 1:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 21

Washington 6 @New York 165
Phoenix 2.5 Minnesota 160.5

Mystics should be able to get back on track after losing their last two. I will take Wash and the under.

I saw an early line of pick'em. Generally I go against the moves, but I like the Mercury. Phoenix has been playing higher scoring games in the past week, playing more up tempo. This may be the adjustment since losing Sancho Lyttle. Phoenix and over.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/21/18 2:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wash -6



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/22/18 7:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Wash -6


1-0, 29-25-1



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/22/18 11:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 22

Seattle 2 @Atlanta 163.5
Dallas 4 Connecticut 177
Las Vegas 8 Indiana 165.5
Los Angeles 4 @Chicago 167.5

The Storm have won 8 of 9, the Dream have won 6 in a row. The teams have split with road wins. Seattle is playing its third road game in 5 days, which is just enough for me to take the Dream.

Dallas is playing as well as anyone, even though they lost their last outing. This is a great position to bounce back. I like the Wings.

Las Vegas isn't a top team but they are much better now than they were at the start of the season. Indiana has won three times this season. They followed up their first 2 wins with a 19 and a 27 point loss. I'll take the Aces.

I don't know what to make of LA except to stay away Pass

Friday I lost the LA-Indiana total when the teams couldn't combine for 6 points in the last 2:24. With 21 seconds left Indiana couldn't even hold onto the ball to get fouled and LA couldn't score after the steal. But that is what happens when you are going bad. Yesterday I took the Mercury so seeing a few highly questionable calls go against them early hurt. Bonner got 3 quick fouls and then Diana went off and got ejected - the second technical was bad, but she was so out of control she probably would have gotten a more deserved T in the next few minutes. The Lynx fell apart in the 4th quarter; not quite enough to lose the game, but their 11 points was bad enough to make the game go under. Overall 1-3 for the day which brings me to 56-56-1 for the season.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/22/18 12:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 22

Seattle 2 @Atlanta 163.5
Dallas 4 Connecticut 177
Las Vegas 8 Indiana 165.5
Los Angeles 4 @Chicago 167.5

I hate when two hot teams square off- I'd rather them make my life easy by whippin' up on some mediocre talent. Even though I'm looking forward to this game, I'm making no play.

I'm gonna assume Diggins' hatred of all things CT carries the day at the casino. Dallas should bounce back from their shitty performance in Chicago- they have no back-back games excuse today. Meanwhile, the SUN join LA and MINN in being a massive disappointment.

Laimbeer and the Aces are improving while Indy is simply putrid. Not sure if LV will get a double-digit win here, but I'll take my chances.

Who knows what to expect from LA? Like I've said, I hate them, hate watching them. In fact, generally I don't bother. Chicago could win this game outright, but I'm not banking on it.

The plays:

Dallas -4
LV -8



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/22/18 12:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:

I'm gonna assume Diggins' hatred of all things CT carries the day at the casino.



The game is actually in Dallas.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/23/18 6:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:

I'm gonna assume Diggins' hatred of all things CT carries the day at the casino.



The game is actually in Dallas.


Ha. Figures. Makes my call even more wrong. Laughing



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/23/18 6:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
July 22

Seattle 2 @Atlanta 163.5
Dallas 4 Connecticut 177
Las Vegas 8 Indiana 165.5
Los Angeles 4 @Chicago 167.5

The plays:

Dallas -4
LV -8


1-1, 30-26-1



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/24/18 1:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 24

Connecticut 4.5 Washington 171
Seattle 11 @Indiana 165.5
Minnesota 12 New York 155
Los Angeles 4 Atlanta 155.5

Connecticut went 7-1 to start the season but is only 6-11 since. Washington has been more consistent, winning 5 of its first 8 and second 8 before going 4-4 in its last 8. I like the Mystics plus the points, and I also like the under.

Seattle has been on the road for a week. This is their 4th game with one rest day in between each. I don't think that the Storm will slip up but 11 seems too much to lay on the road. On the other hand, Indiana has not been able to win or even cover at home since June 16. Pass

Minnesota no longer takes these games for granted so I can't count on the Lynx sleepwalking their way to a single-digit victory. Pass

Atlanta is the hottest team in the league. LA has lost its last 4 at home. I'm not thrilled about it but I'll take the Dream to keep on their roll.

Sunday I was 2-1 so I am now an unimpressive 58-57-1.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/24/18 5:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 24

Connecticut 4.5 Washington 171
Seattle 11 @Indiana 165.5
Minnesota 12 New York 155
Los Angeles 4 Atlanta 155.5

The Sun crushed Wash in their 1st meeting, but the Mystics won the next two. CT is coming off a surprising win in Dallas (10-20 3s will do that) while Wash won at NY Sat, after losing in Dallas 5 days ago. What does it all mean? Idk, but I'll hope CT shoots 5-20 from tonight. 171 Under

Storm's 4 games in 7 days road trip ends tonight at Indiana. Big spread, but after playing Atlanta Sunday, tonight's game should be a dream. Rolling Eyes Sea-11

Minn gives me no confidence either way. Punt.

Atlanta is the hot team; Sparks ain't what they used to be. The obvious play is Atlanta getting points, but again I'll punt here.

The plays:

171 Under
Seattle -11



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/25/18 10:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
July 24

Connecticut 4.5 Washington 171
Seattle 11 @Indiana 165.5
Minnesota 12 New York 155
Los Angeles 4 Atlanta 155.5

The plays:

171 Under
Seattle -11


2-0, 32-26-1 [27-10]



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/25/18 1:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 25

Phoenix 5 Chicago 170.5

I know the uniforms will say Phoenix (actually Casino Arizona Talking Stick and Verizon) but this will be a very different team today. Briann January and Yvonne Turner are the only two guards available with Taurasi suspended and Mitchell out for personal reasons. Brittney Griner has back spasms but will presumably be playing. DeWanna Bonner is healthy and available. Camille Little, Stephanie Talbot, Angel Robinson and Marie Gulich round out the lineup. I know that the Sky aren't that good and this seems like a tough spot schedule-wise. A day game on a one game road trip before the All-Star break. But I will gladly take the Sky getting points against a decimated Mercury squad. I also have to believe that Phoenix will try to slow this game down and stay out of foul trouble so I will also take the under.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/25/18 2:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Phoenix line has moved to 7.5 which I assume means that Griner is playing and healthy. (I hope it is not something more problematic for the Sky.)


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/25/18 5:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Sky win made me 1-1 today and puts me at 59-58-1 at the break. A few points on today's game. When the line moved up I was able to take the Sky straight up at +240 so the game was quite profitable. But I have to wonder why Brondello with a short bench would start Talbot over Little. When I saw that lineup I knew the total was in big trouble. The Mercury had only 8 players, but that included 3 centers. The minutes tell the story; Bonner (38), Talbot (37), Turner (34) and January (34). Robinson (23) Griner (16) and Gulich (11) shared the post and Little played only 7 minutes after playing 32 vs. the Lynx and averaging nearly 20 per game this season. With such a short bench why go to a small lineup, particularly against a team that wants to run.

Finally, the Flagrant 2 against Griner was horrible. That was in no way a vicious swing of her elbow; it was a player who by virtue of her size had her elbow aligned with Dolson's face. Referees always have trouble officiating big, physical players (just ask Wilt Chamberlain or Shaquille O'Neal), but this was embarrassing. Griner and Cambage are the two most dominant players in the game so it is understandable that they can become frustrated when actions fouls them are rarely called but they get called far more for much less. It looked like resignation rather than disgust from Griner after that play. Pitiful.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/28/18 2:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

All Star Game

Delle Donne 3 Parker 239


They put up a line so I'll make a pick. I'll take team Parker and the under. Parker's team has a little more youth and more players I like. The under is based on the line. Last year they scored 251 and that was the game pace throughout (65 in the first quarter). But with somewhat more balanced teams and the potential for some defense late if the game is close, I'll hope for a 120-117 final. Just no overtime.


Shades



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PostPosted: 07/28/18 5:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The final was 119-112. That was close.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/29/18 10:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I had to sweat a bit at 115-112 with a minute to go, but no OT meant 2-0 so I am now 61-58-1.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/31/18 1:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 31

Atlanta 4 Washington 162
Dallas 11 Chicago 184.5
Seattle 3 @Phoenix 167

I should have gotten up earlier. Some big moves in today's games this morning and I would prefer betting against the opening line. Atlanta opened as a 3 point favorite. The Dream are playing better than anyone right now, so even at 4 I will take them.

The Wings opened at 10 with a total of 181. I like Dallas and will lay the 11. These two teams have played twice this month and the home team has won both games, 108-85 and 114-99. Now the total is the highest of the season (ASG doesn't count), and while I was looking to take the over, like the rent in NYC, the total is just too damn high.

Seattle opened as a 1.5 point favorite. I actually think that is the right line, but the extra 1.5 is not enough for me to play the Mercury. If Dev Peters is in shape and can be assimilated I think she could be a factor the rest of the season so I will be watching tonight.

A word of caution. Teams can sometimes get reset after a break. Shooting may be a little off. So even though I have two plays that I would like quite a bit otherwise, there isn't that much conviction behind them.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/31/18 4:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 31

Atlanta 4 Washington 162
Dallas 11 Chicago 184.5
Seattle 3 @Phoenix 167

Teams can reset, as you say, and hot teams can lose their momentum. So can hot (27-10) bettors, unfortunately. Hoping this isn't the case for the Dream and I.

Dallas looks like the proper play here, but for some reason the 11 scares me. Not sure why. Pass. Or not. Hmmm. Yeah, pass.

I want to take PHO here, based on how DT and BG finished before the ASG break. A little extra motivation maybe. Also, the Storm have had a few days of hearing how great they are and might be a little less than ready.


The plays:

Atl -4
Pho +3



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 08/01/18 8:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
July 31

Atlanta 4 Washington 162
Dallas 11 Chicago 184.5
Seattle 3 @Phoenix 167

Teams can reset, as you say, and hot teams can lose their momentum. So can hot (27-10) bettors, unfortunately. Hoping this isn't the case for the Dream and I.

Dallas looks like the proper play here, but for some reason the 11 scares me. Not sure why. Pass. Or not. Hmmm. Yeah, pass.

I want to take PHO here, based on how DT and BG finished before the ASG break. A little extra motivation maybe. Also, the Storm have had a few days of hearing how great they are and might be a little less than ready.


The plays:

Atl -4
Pho +3


Alright! Off to another great start. Instead of taking the hot HOME favorite, I should have picked the hot ROAD favorite. Laughing

0-2, 32-28-1 (27-12, 0-2)



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/01/18 2:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

August 1

Connecticut 12 New York 166
Las Vegas 3.5 Phoenix 173.5

Today I will make no plays. This isn't because I went 0-2 last night and dropped my season record to 61-60-1, but rather for the reason I stated in why I wasn't putting much conviction behind them. Teams are resetting for the last 2 1/2 weeks of the season.

I believe that Connecticut is poised to make another push and could be a hot team going into the playoffs. I expect the Liberty to be the worst team the rest of the way. I would put their over/under for wins in August at 2 (out of 9) and I'd be tempted to take the under. But the Liberty have played the Sun twice and both have come down to the final possession. I'll watch today, but I believe this could be a Sun blowout.

Las Vegas is now favored over Phoenix. What a reversal of fortune. Phoenix was a 12 point favorite for their first game and a 6.5 point favorite in their first game in Las Vegas. A 10 point line adjustment in only 6 weeks seems overdone (the total is also 10 points higher), but the Aces have become a competitive team, particularly at home where they have won 4 of their last 5. A win here gets them to .500 and puts them squarely in the playoff hunt. If I had to I would take the Mercury because the adjustment is too much, but for tonight I watch.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/02/18 12:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

One thing I love about picking games is that, regardless of thought process or contradictory positions, in the end you land on one side or the other. It is black and white. I went 0-2 Tuesday, then passed today and went 2-0 on the sides that I liked. The thought process was the same both days but today I decided not to call my leans plays. In a bad year that is what happens. No complaints, no regrets.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/02/18 5:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

August 2

Dallas 7 @Indiana 170
Los Angeles 3 Minnesota 152

I like Dallas in this spot. Cambage should be able to have a big day against the front court of Indiana. Diggins being out scares me off the total, but I will lay the points.

At the start of the season this was the game that was supposed to decide the #1 seed in the playoffs. Now it looks more like a game to stay in the race for a double bye. LA has lost its last 5 at home, but with Ogwumike back in the lineup I believe the Sparks can get it together for a big win. I also like the over because of the low total. their first 3 games have been 153, 146 and 155, but both teams have been scoring more of late.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 08/02/18 5:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

August 2

Dallas 7 @Indiana 170
Los Angeles 3 Minnesota 152

Tonight I guess we'll see how much not having Diggins matters in Indy.

The nightcap is beyond my handicap. No result would surprise me, other than a 200 total point affair in regulation.

The play:

Dallas -7



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 08/03/18 7:10 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
August 2

Dallas 7 @Indiana 170
Los Angeles 3 Minnesota 152

Tonight I guess we'll see how much not having Diggins matters in Indy.

The nightcap is beyond my handicap. No result would surprise me, other than a 200 total point affair in regulation.

The play:

Dallas -7



Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

0-1, 32-29-1 (27-13, 0-3)

i need a trip to NH.



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