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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/01/18 9:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Maya Moore misses a FT, then the Wings don't foul with 5 seconds to go down 4, and I start the day off the wrong way. From there on it was a solid win and over by Atlanta and an easy win by LA to salvage the weekend. 3-3 for the weekend, 40-37-1 overall.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/02/18 6:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Maya Moore misses a FT, then the Wings don't foul with 5 seconds to go down 4, and I start the day off the wrong way.


True, but the Glory J. miss of the bunniest of bunnies off the nice feed from Diggins was the only reason you were alive at that point. Smile

Seattle thumps the faltering Sun to give me a 1-0 night.

7-3 last 10, 14-21-1



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 07/02/18 12:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I love this thread ... look forward to it every day.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/03/18 2:50 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 3

Seattle 3.5 @New York 165
Minnesota 14 Indiana 160.5
Dallas 6.5 Chicago 173.5
Los Angeles 9 Connecticut 162.5

Seattle has played 7 of its last nine games at home. Even though this is a cross country trip they should have been rested up enough that this shouldn't affect them too much. I'll take the Storm minus the small number.

Minnesota opened up as a 15.5 point favorite in this game but has been bet down to 14. The Lynx should be able to name the final score but they usually don't name a score much above 10. I'll take the Fever, and I also like the under.

The condition of Cambage directly impacts my thoughts on this game. If she plays I would like Dallas and the under. For now I expect she is playing so I will make those plays, but if she is out I won't be taking any money out of my pocket.


Connecticut is not the team they were earlier. In has been a month since Sun won a game against a team not called the Fever or Liberty. How much of this is because of Alyssa Thomas? I'm not sure, but until she comes back I will be looking to against them. Sparks -9.


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PostPosted: 07/03/18 3:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 3

Seattle 3.5 @New York 165
Minnesota 14 Indiana 160.5
Dallas 6.5 Chicago 173.5
Los Angeles 9 Connecticut 162.5

Seattle favored by only 3.5?? Back in my NFL betting days that's what we'd call a fucked up line. We had a Fucked Up Line Rule- run! Of course, this is the W, and women's basketball, and the usual things don't necessarily apply. Pass.

Minn nearly covered the dozen they gave Atl in their last home game. Tonight they give a worse team a couple more points. However, LA comes in Thurs. Looking ahead/rest for the vets? Aaargh. Back and forth on this one all day. I'll punt, but take the Under.

Cambage condition unknown to me. Pass. (Besides, if I take Dallas, Diggins will likely clank a 3 or brick a drive late to blow the cover.)

LA -9. I'm going against the SUN until further notice.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/04/18 8:36 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I said the Lynx could name the score. I really didn't believe it would be 59. Pitiful effort, but good for a few wins. Overall I was 4-2, also winning on Seattle and Dallas while losing on the Wings under and LA. That brings me to 44-39-1 for the season.

No WNBA today so I will prognosticate a few other women's sports. I'll take Aggie Radwanska over Lucie Safarova and Kristina Mladenovic over Tatjana Maria in the two most competitive matches (oddswise) today at Wimbledon. But my top pick for the day is (appropriately for Independence Day) on this side of the pond. I'll take Miki Sudo. I don't just predict a win; there could be a new world record. And it gets going in a little more than an hour.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/05/18 4:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 5

Washington 8.5 New York 160
Minnesota 3.5 Los Angeles 154
Dallas 10 Indiana 166.5
Phoenix 6.5 Connecticut 169
Las Vegas 4.5 Chicago 173.5

A very interesting slate of games to start the second half of the season. Washington barely scraped by the Liberty a week ago at home, but they have generally been playing quite well. The Liberty look like a lottery lock (literally a little alliteration). I think the Mystics will make sure this is an easy winner so I will lay the points.

The top two teams didn't bother to play on Tuesday, even though they had games scheduled. The line on this game opened at 5.5 and I was set to just watch the game. But the two point move is enough for me to take the Lynx who have lost the first two matchups this season.

Indiana's win over the defending champions on Tuesday signifies their ascendancy to the upper echelon of the WNBA. Or not. This actually looks like a great spot for the Wings who are a perfect 3-0 at home against the spread vs. poorer teams (Atlanta, Las Vegas and Chicago - average win 19 points). I also think I caught a break on the total due to the 71-59 Fever win on Tuesday. I'll take Dallas and the over.

Despite the Sun's win Tuesday I still think they are a go-against. Indeed the way they were leaking oil in the fourth quarter supports that theory. I'll take Phoenix.

For the first time ever the Las Vegas are favored. In their first 18 games they were an underdog, and only 4 times were they less than a 5 point dog. In those games they are 3-1 (4-0 against the spread) and every game has gone over. I am not ready to lay points, but I will take the over.

Yesterday with no WNBA games, I took 2 tennis matches. Radwanska lost 7-5, 6-4 while Mladenovic won 6-2, 6-2. I also took Miki Sudo and she won easily but only downed 37 hot dogs well short of the world record of 45.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/05/18 5:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Storm-Liberty result Tues apparently renders my NFL-based Fucked Up Line Rule useless re: the W. Lesson learned.

Also on Tues., both Minn and LA mailed in their games, embarrassingly. I have to question the mettle of each.

The 1-1 night leaves me 15-22-1 for the year.


July 5

Washington 8.5 New York 160
Minnesota 3.5 Los Angeles 154
Dallas 10 Indiana 166.5
Phoenix 6.5 Connecticut 169
Las Vegas 4.5 Chicago 173.5


I get scared when an entire slate of games looks as good as tonight's does.

Figuring all five faves for fortune.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/05/18 8:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:

Also on Tues., both Minn and LA mailed in their games, embarrassingly. I have to question the mettle of each.




The big take for me is that both of these teams are becoming less interested in the day-to-day of the WNBA. It is one of several problems with the WNBA this season. Connecticut (once they get Thomas back), Phoenix, Seattle and Washington are all in the hunt for the top 2 records, and they all have some high quality players. Even though the Lynx and Sparks are still at the top both teams are aging and not getting the double bye could prove problematic.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/05/18 11:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

4-2 for tonight's games. I was watching Phoenix and felt very fortunate to catch a break as Connecticut had three chances to cover but threw up 3 consecutive 3s, the last one from 30 feet by Morgan Tuck with 7 seconds to go. Then I checked the scores and saw that the Aces-Sky game, which had 104 points at the half, had only 60 in the second half (and only 24 in the 4th quarter.) Ouch! A check of the play-by-play shows the teams combined to go 3-24 from the floor over a 6:50 stretch in the 4th. You win some and lose some, and you remember the bad beats longer than you do the lucky winners.

That brings me to 48-41-1 for the season.

The early line for tomorrow night's game is Seattle 3.5 @Atlanta 158.

No play for now. I post this now because I have a hectic schedule tomorrow and may not get a chance to post.


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PostPosted: 07/06/18 12:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
July 5

Washington 8.5 New York 160
Minnesota 3.5 Los Angeles 154
Dallas 10 Indiana 166.5
Phoenix 6.5 Connecticut 169
Las Vegas 4.5 Chicago 173.5


I get scared when an entire slate of games looks as good as tonight's does.

Figuring all five faves for fortune.



4-1 on the night, winning 1 and losing 1 by .5.

12-5 last 17, ascending to mediocrity. 19-23-1.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/06/18 1:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 6

Seattle 4.5 @Atlanta 161

Seattle lost at home 67-64 when these two matched up earlier. As I looked at this game I really don't like the Storm's travel (home vs Connecticut last Sunday, @New York Tuesday, @Atlanta today, and back home Sunday vs. Washington). But I also don't want to bet against the better team in a revenge spot. I'll pass.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/06/18 6:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 6

Seattle 4.5 @Atlanta 161


Can't get a good feel on this one, and even though I'm relatively hot and like the under, I will pass.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/07/18 4:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 7

Los Angeles 7 Washington 160.5
Minnesota 8.5 @Chicago 169
Connecticut 3.5 @Las Vegas 168

Los Angeles has lost 4 of 5; Washington has won 5 of 6. These two teams are 3rd and 4th overall so this is a big game in terms of playoff seeding. LA won at Washington 97-86 earlier this season. A review of Sparks games after Minnesota shows no clear trend. Overall I like the Sparks despite their poor form of late. They seem to need the game more if they want a double bye, and with their age that is important. LA has reached 160 only 3 of their last 10 games and the Mystics have been under the last three games, but I will pass on the total. LA -7.

Minnesota is a team I don't trust as a big favorite. This line is right on the edge so I will pass. Chicago is the best over team in the league having had 6 overs before their last game when they played a 60 point second half to stay under against the Aces. If Minnesota controls this game I could see another low scoring second half, so I will also pass on the total.

Las Vegas couldn't cover in their firsat game as a favorite, but this team is playing decent ball right now. I expect them to make the playoffs, displacing Atlanta. This is just the type of game they need to make that happen, playing against an ailing Sun team at the end of a long road trip. A week ago I would have been salivating at the over, but the Sun have played 3 strong unders on this Western road trip. I still see a potential scorefest, but I will pass on the total. Aces +3.5.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/07/18 6:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

All 3 dogs



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/08/18 8:18 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
All 3 dogs



Life is good when all 3 dogs win outright.....hot streak in full flame.

22-23-1 (15-5)



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Richyyy



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PostPosted: 07/08/18 11:42 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Is it just me or is there some surprisingly good value still on here? Maybe haven't been updated in a while.




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Randy



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PostPosted: 07/08/18 1:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Is it just me or is there some surprisingly good value still on here? Maybe haven't been updated in a while.



The Storm odds (10-1) seem the most out of line. I can't see that their odds are that much worse than Lynx, Sparks and Mercury. Wings at 33-1 are also pretty high. I'd think 10-1 or better. OTOH - Fever should be a million to 1. Dream, Liberty, Sky, Aces 100 to 1 or worse. Now if this was in old days with conferences, you could see the Eastern teams having much better odds since getting to the finals would be much easier.



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/08/18 2:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 8th

Dallas 3.5 @ NY
Pho 4.5 @ Atl
Sea 6 Wash

Dallas -3.5



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/08/18 2:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 8

Phoenix 4.5 @Atlanta 161.5
Dallas 3.5 @New York 164.5
Seattle 6 Washington 169.5


Moving slowly this morning so I missed the two early starts.Since I only have one game that hasn't started I will look squarely at the under. These teams played an 81-77 game earlier this year. Seattle has played 4 consecutive unders at home since I saw them beat the Sun 103-92. Washington has also played 4 unders in a row.

Keep up the good work huskies fan. Youv'e been smoking. Last night I was 1-1, so I'm now 49-42-1.

As for the odds to win the WNBA, those odds are basically current. The belief has been that LA and Minnesota were better than the rest and would get the two byes into the semis. If either Seattle or Washington can grab a top 2 spot there is definitely value. The concern for both is their schedule. After this week the Mystics play 9 of their last 13 on the road and the Storm play 9 of their last 12 away from Seattle.


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PostPosted: 07/08/18 4:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
As for the odds to win the WNBA, those odds are basically current. The belief has been that LA and Minnesota were better than the rest and would get the two byes into the semis. If either Seattle or Washington can grab a top 2 spot there is definitely value. The concern for both is their schedule. After this week the Mystics play 9 of their last 13 on the road and the Storm play 9 of their last 12 away from Seattle.

But Minnesota have found a way to lose to Indiana and Chicago just lately, and LA have been miserable for the last few weeks. Feels like enough of a crapshoot across the top-seven that LA and Minnesota still being such short-odds favourites seems a little nuts. Seattle, Washington and Dallas all seem like good value to me, plus Connecticut if they got healthy at the right time. And while they'd obviously be huge outsiders to win the title, even Vegas at 100/1 seems generous.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/08/18 5:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
As for the odds to win the WNBA, those odds are basically current. The belief has been that LA and Minnesota were better than the rest and would get the two byes into the semis. If either Seattle or Washington can grab a top 2 spot there is definitely value. The concern for both is their schedule. After this week the Mystics play 9 of their last 13 on the road and the Storm play 9 of their last 12 away from Seattle.

But Minnesota have found a way to lose to Indiana and Chicago just lately, and LA have been miserable for the last few weeks. Feels like enough of a crapshoot across the top-seven that LA and Minnesota still being such short-odds favourites seems a little nuts. Seattle, Washington and Dallas all seem like good value to me, plus Connecticut if they got healthy at the right time. And while they'd obviously be huge outsiders to win the title, even Vegas at 100/1 seems generous.



I am not saying I agree with the oddsmakers, only that I believe this is their thought process. As for Dallas (and Las Vegas for that matter) consider what they have to do. The top 4 seeds will almost certainly come from among Minnesota, Los Angeles, Seattle, Washington, Phoenix and Connecticut. Assuming Dallas is able to finish 5th or 6th, they will first have to win a home game (perhaps against Las Vegas) and then a road game against a higher seeded team just to get to the final four. That would be roughly a 22% chance (based on a 67% chance of home teams winning the knockout games.) From that point they would have to win two series where they would be underdogs, so their overall chances would presumably be no more than 3-4%.


At this point I believe Minnesota and LA still deserve to be the favorites based on recent past history. But


Right now I would give the percentage chance of winning the championship for each team as follows:

Los Angeles 30%
Minnesota 22%
Phoenix 14%
Seattle 10%
Washington 10%
Connecticut 8%
Dallas 3.5%
Atlanta 2%
Las Vegas 1%
Chicago 0.5%


That would mean very slight value for the Mystics, Storm and Wings. But if you believe that the Sparks and Lynx won't be able to step up their game for the playoffs then there may be some value. Indeed the real question is would you take Minnesota and LA or the rest of the league to win the championship. If you like the field then you can probably find value.


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PostPosted: 07/10/18 10:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 10

Seattle 3.5 Los Angeles 161
Dallas 1.5 Phoenix 168
Chicago 3 Las Vegas 173

Seattle is already 3 games ahead of Los Angeles and holds the tiebreak due to 2 wins earlier this season. A win here could make it very difficult for the Sparks to catch the Storm. Seattle needs the win because after their game at home against Dallas on Friday they become road warriors with 9 of their last 12 away from the Key Arena. After winning 4 of their first 5, Los Angeles has lost its last 4 on the road . All four losses were by double digits. I'll take the Storm.


Phoenix is trying to complete a season sweep of the Wings. They won 86-78 in Phoenix and 75-72 in Dallas. The Mercury have only lost back-to back games once this season and they are coming off a loss at Atlanta. I like Phoenix. As for the total Phoenix started out the season with 5 of their first 6 games going over but since then they have been 10-4 on the under. I like under.

Las Vegas is either a team that has found its footing and is ready to make a playoff push or a team that has looked better than they are because they have played 7 of their last 9 at home. Chicago beat LV by 5 in their first game as a 5 point favorite, then lost by 4 to the Aces as a 4.5 point underdog. It seems the oddsmakers have a good read on these teams so I'll pass.


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PostPosted: 07/10/18 1:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
July 8th

Dallas 3.5 @ NY
Pho 4.5 @ Atl
Sea 6 Wash

Dallas -3.5



1-0, 23-23-1. The coveted .500 (less 10%), at long last.

I can trace the hot streak to a mind-clearing week spent in the North Country of NH. The break apparently got my mind right, Boss.

As such, I'll make no play until tonight's games, if at all.

I look forward to Godzilla vs Bigfoot in the Big D.


July 10

Seattle 3.5 Los Angeles 161
Dallas 1.5 Phoenix 168
Chicago 3 Las Vegas 173



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PostPosted: 07/11/18 4:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 11

Connecticut 8.5 New York 164.5
Washington 8 Atlanta 162.5
Minnesota 11 @Indiana 158

All early games so I doubt I will even be up before they start. If I do get up in time I'll take the Fever because I always bet against the Lynx when they are a double digit favorite. But I doubt I will actually be awake to make a bet. Probably just as well based on yesterday's results.


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PostPosted: 07/11/18 10:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 11

Connecticut 8.5 New York 164.5
Washington 8 Atlanta 162.5
Minnesota 11 @Indiana 158


Too late for the 1st 2 games, so, despite not being a true believer, I'll dip my toe into the Lynx are a crap double-digit road favorite pool.

Indy +11


Of course. Biggest road MOV of year for Lynx probably. Rolling Eyes

0-1, 23-24-1



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PostPosted: 07/12/18 2:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 12

Los Angeles 6.5 Dallas 163.5

I don't like day games. This looks like a nice spot for LA to get out of their funk and also to play their style (slower, lower scoring), but I will pass on the game.


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PostPosted: 07/13/18 2:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Just finished watching the Isner-Anderson semifinal. For the first time that I remember both semis were essential pick'em (Nadal and Isner were the slightest of favorites, both less than 6/5. Congratulations to Kevin Anderson.

Okay, I know this is supposed to be about WNBA odds, but seriously, based on my current form do you really think I want to go there? Well, maybe Friday the 13th can change my fortune.

July 13

Atlanta 10 Indiana 157.5
Connecticut 4.5 Phoenix 168.5
Washington 10 Chicago 173.5
Minnesota 9.5 Las Vegas 163.5

This marks the fourth game between these two teams this season. Atlanta won the first game 72-67 at home and then lost round 2, 96-64 in Indiana two nights later. The Dream won the third game 87-83 away. Atlanta is a bad favorite, only 2-5 this season, and they have only been favored by 5 or more once, the last time they were home against the Fever. I like the points and I will also take the over.

Connecticut got Alyssa Thomas back but still couldn't beat New York in its last game. Phoenix lost to Dallas its last game out, in large part due to Diana Taurasi being sick. Since I don't know her status for today I will pass.

Washington has lost its last 2 after briefly ascending into position for a double bye. This looks like a game for them to get healthy. The Mystics have already beaten the Sky by 28 at home and 16 on the road. I look for another easy win so I will lay the points. I also will take the under. The Sky have gone under the last 3 games and Washington has gone over in its last two. The line is 173.5 after being 169 and 168 the first two games. Those games ended at 148 and 170, so while the teams are 1-1 for the over/under both are under today's line. That line adjustment seems a little too much.

Minnesota is not the team they have been in previous year but I still believe they are the best team when they play at their best. The Aces are improved and I expect them to play well but the line keeps me on the sidelines. I will also pass on the total, but gun tu head I would lean to the under.

Once I win another game I will recount my record.


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PostPosted: 07/14/18 3:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Bastille Day - Viva La France (but I'll be rooting for Croatia tomorrow)

Seattle 5.5 Dallas 174.5

The Wings are the hottest team in the league, having won their last 5 games by an average score of 98-77. Seattle lost a tough game to LA in its last outing, blowing a double digit lead in the 4th quarter. After this game the Storm will be on the road for 9 of their next 10 games. The teams have played twice in Dallas and split. I like the spot for Seattle but I can't go against the current form of the Wings. Pass

Yesterday I was able to reverse fortune by going 3-1. That brings my season total to 52-47-1 (52.5%) just barely above the breakeven point of (52.38%).


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PostPosted: 07/15/18 8:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 15

New York 4.5 Chicago 165
Washington 1 @Atlanta 165.5
Phoenix 9 @Indiana 163.5
Los Angeles 4.5 @Las Vegas 160.5
Connecticut NL Minnesota

My picks for today are Anderson +400 over Djokovic and Croatia +180 to win the World Cup. As for the WNBA when I get the Sun-Lynx line I will post my picks.


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PostPosted: 07/15/18 10:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 15

New York 4.5 Chicago 165
Washington 1.5 @Atlanta 168
Phoenix 8.5 @Indiana 163.5
Los Angeles 4 @Las Vegas 161.5
Minnesota 4.5 Connecticut 163.5


The Liberty have won 6 games this season, none by more than 7 points. The Liberty and Sky have played three times this season and no game has been decided by more than 4 points. Clay called me brave for picking the Liberty against the Sky. Once bitten, twice shy. I'll take the Sky. The total is very interesting. When these two teams played back to back games two weeks ago they scored 202 and 191 points. Since then New York has played 3 of 4 games under and the Sky have 4 consecutive unders. So it is under trends vs. matchups. I lean to the over, but I will resist making it a play.

Washington lost to Atlanta at home earlier this week. I still believe the Mystics are the better team, so with the revenge agle I will take the Mystics. The total jumped up 2.5 points from when I first posted the lines so I mo longer see any value in the over.

Phoenix is finishing up a 4 game road trip. They are 0-3 so far. I can't see the Mercury losing again, but based on their form I can't lay the points. Pass.

I saw LA play in Las Vegas 2 weeks ago and the Aces were the better team that night. Then again, the Sparks were without Ogwumike. The Aces have won their last 4 and the Sparks have lost 3 of 4 so I'm leaning Las Vegas, but Nicolas Cage makes me uncomfortable so I will pass.

The Lynx and the Sun are both struggling. Alyssa Thomas is back but not at top form. I'll take Minnesota to bounce back from their ugly loss to Las Vegas and lay the points.


A note on last night's game. The technical foul call (and ensuing FT) in the last 90 seconds was the difference in allowing the game to go over and have Seattle cover the opening line. I didn't have a bet on the game, but it is a shame that such a bad (and totally unnecessary) call was made.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/15/18 1:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

July 15

New York 4.5 Chicago 165
Washington 1.5 @Atlanta 168
Phoenix 8.5 @Indiana 163.5
Los Angeles 4 @Las Vegas 161.5
Minnesota 4.5 Connecticut 163.5


Screw it.

All 5 Overs.



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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 07/15/18 2:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

2:00 left in the 2nd in ATL, I concede, cuz Tolliver just clanked both FTs.

2:00 into the 4th in Minn, I concede. Lynx have no desire to play.

3-2 on the day, back at .500.



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Last edited by cthskzfn on 07/15/18 7:30 pm; edited 2 times in total
calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 2802
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PostPosted: 07/15/18 4:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
2:00 left in the 2nd in ATL, I concede, cuz Tolliver just clanked both FTs.


We Both need a 3 by the Stics


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