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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/18/18 4:15 pm    ::: 2018 WNBA odds Reply Reply with quote

May 18

Phoenix 5 Dallas 160

Phoenix is a 5 point favorite, which is essentially the home court advantage. I like the Dallas team generally but this looks like a bad spot so I will pass on the side. Dallas was the highest scoring team last season, averaging 175 total points per game. Phoenix averaged 164 which was close to the league average. Last season these two teams started the season with a 68-58 Dallas win, the lowest total for either team all year. Their other 2 games were 107-65 and 101-100 Mercury wins. Cambage should slow down the Wings, but I will still take the over for some opening day excitement.

Last year I hit 56%, good, but a disappointment given how strong I was for the first seven weeks. Hopefully I will improve on that mark.


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 05/18/18 4:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Just in case anyone's interested in the futures, the first lot of title-winning odds I found were:

Minnesota 5/4
LA 8/5
Washington 12/1
Phoenix 12/1
New York 12/1
Las Vegas 20/1
Connecticut 25/1
Seattle 25/1
Dallas 30/1
Atlanta 30/1
Chicago 80/1
Indiana 100/1

I'd say the value there is whoever you fancy from the Conn/Sea/Dal/Atl group, but obviously mileage may vary. For those who don't gamble, you bet the second number to win the first - so for every 1 dollar on the Lynx you'd only win 1.25 dollars. Bet a buck on the Fever and if they win the title you win 100.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/18/18 5:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

For anyone wondering about the future odds on Las Vegas, the low line (20/1) is because of the success of the Vegas Golden Knights hockey team, where sports books have a very large exposure. The Aces are seen as the 3rd worst team, slightly ahead of the Sky and Pacers.

Regarding today's game, the total on the game actually opened at 172 in some offshore books and opened at 166 in Las Vegas, and was bet down to 160.


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 05/18/18 5:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That's interesting. Are we going to see some significant differences in the lines this year due to there now being a team in Vegas? At a minimum, does it mean that they'll take into account extra money that might be placed on the home town team?



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sigur3



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PostPosted: 05/18/18 6:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That Wings/Merc line opened at 172. Insane.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/18/18 11:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

After a 28 point 3rd quarter Phoenix and Dallas combined for 50 in the 4th to send the game over 160 and get my first win. Dallas nearly tied the side, but missed a 3-pointer with less than 10 seconds to go.

With a 10am pacific start I will have to get up early tomorrow. No lines available yet, but I suspect Indiana will be about 3 and the total should be about 156.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/19/18 10:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 19

Indiana 2 Chicago 154

These are the two worst teams in the league and the Sky are missing their best player, Courtney Vandersloot. Indiana beat Chicago in the preseason 79-65, but their two leading scorers were Stephanie Mavunga and Alexis Petersen. Petersen was cut and Mavunga won't start. The Fever have several things going for them, opening day at home, opponent's leader out, comfidence from beating their opponent a few weeks ago, but they also have the worst roster. If the total moves down another point I may take the over (Pokey is on record wanting to push the pace) but for now I have to pass and just watch.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/20/18 10:08 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 20

Connecticut 14.5 Las Vegas 153
Washington 12.5 Indiana 153
Dallas 4 Atlanta 161.5
Minnesota 6 Los Angeles 154.5
New York 5 @Chicago 153.5
Seattle 4 Phoenix 156.5

A full slate of games for this opening Sunday. The totals all seem to have been adjusted downward after 2 games. My sense is the lower scoring has been due to bad shooting, and so I have a bias towards the over in most games.


I like Connecticut but I can't lay 14.5 points in game 1. I suspect Laimbeer will have the Aces playing defense but at 153 I like the over. The Sun averaged 86 points per game last season. If the Sun can build a lead the Aces will have to open up, and that means points.

Indiana is a dumpster fire. Perhaps they will be better for having played a game, but they just don't have talent. Washington also appears to be down from last season without Meesemen. I can't quite lay 12.5 points, but I will go out on a limb and hope the Fever can shoot 40% today. That should be enough to get the over.

Dallas lost to Phoenix Friday and may be without GloJo, but the Wingsimpressed me as a team on the rise. Angel is back for the Dream, but Tiffany Hayes may not be playing. I'll take the Wings to give their fans a home opener win by more than 4.

Minnesota is the defending champion, and normally I would look to the Sparks for some minor revenge in the opener. But without Parker or Lavender the Lynx should be able to begin 2018 the way they ended 2017. I'll lay the points.

Chicago beat Indiana. That doesn't mean much. The Sky were the worst home team last season and don't have Vandersloot. I can't quite lay 4 points with the Liberty, particularly when I'm not sure how Katie Smith may impact the squad. so I will pass.

I thought I might be able to get the Storm at a lower number. Phoenix looked good on Friday, and DT looked great. But I don't expect Taurasi to repeat that performance. Seattle looks like the right side but the oddsmakers took the value out, so I will pass.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/20/18 6:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

A successful opening weekend. The Sun and Aces easily went over the 153 total as Connecticut got 101 by themselves. I wasn't willing to lay the 14.5 points but evidently most people were as the Sun went off as 18 point favorites and easily cashed. The Fever improved their shooting to 43% today, and even though the Mystics shot only 42% it was just enough to squeak over. The Wings continue to impress and even with Tiffany Hayes playing Dallas was clearly superior. The only loss was a pitiful effort by the Lynx who committed 24 turnovers in losing to LA. The Lynx will host Dallas on Wednesday in a very good early season matchup.

A 3-1 day lifts my record to 4-1 for the season. No games tomorrow. LA plays Indiana and Las Vegas plays Washington on Tuesday.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/22/18 2:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 22

Washington 18 Las Vegas 155
Los Angeles 8 @Indiana 151.5


Just a few days into the season and we have the highest line in the last several years. Las Vegas and Indiana are clearly the two weakest teams in the league. The Mystics only beat Indiana by 7. I expect EDD to shoot better today than she did Sunday, but to paraphrase Jimmy McMillan, the line is too damn high. I like the Aces to improve in their second game so I will take the 18.

From a situational standpoint Indiana is in about as good a position as can be. LA is coming off a last second win over their top rival and is still without Parker. Indiana is returning home where they have generally played better, and will want to atone for their opening day loss. The only problem is that the talent gap is so big. I will instead go with the over. Pokey has already stated she wants to play up tempo and LA may also be willing to play at a faster pace without Parker and Lavender.

A few notes on Sunday's games. I said the totals were low (and played 2 overs). The overs actually went 5-1. The only game that stayed under was Minnesota-LA which came within 1.5 points. The other issue was that all 4 teams (Sky, Fever, Wings and Mercury) that were playing their second game all covered.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/23/18 9:43 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 23

Chicago 3 Atlanta 163
Minnesota 13.5 Dallas
Phoenix 5.5 Seattle 160

Too early. I don't like 9 am (pacific) games. Chicago is 2-0 with wins over Indiana and New York in what I call "somebody has to win" games. I am not impressed. Atlanta didn't look good either, but teams have improved from game 1 to game 2. Maybe it is just because I'm sleep deprived but I will take the Dream +3.

Minnesota looked bad against LA with 24 TOs. Maybe even more concerning, they looked old. Dallas is playing well and can expose old. I don't really like the situation (Lynx at home after a home loss), but I do like the points. I'll take the Wings to at least keep the game close.

Phoenix has looked very good so far. Seattle hung around against the Mercury on Sunday, but was the inferior team, even at home. Even though I would usually go against the winning team on the back end of a home-and-home series, I believe that Bonner and January have breathed life into the team and so far Taurasi looks like she wants to play. I will lay the 5.5 with the Mercury.

Yesterday the Aces showed they are comparable to the Fever. As an 18 point underdog they led most of the game before falling in the final minutes. A loss on the scoreboard, but an easy win against the spread. In my other play Indiana and LA looked like an easy over, scoring 49 points in the first quarter. The rest of the game points were much harder to come by, but when Mavunga hit two FT with 33,6 seconds to go (her only two points of the game), the game crept over. That gave me a 2-0 day, and a very nice 6-1 start.


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 05/23/18 10:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I know they're the champs and looking to rebound off a loss, but 13.5 seems insanely high for Minnesota.



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WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 05/23/18 10:41 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
I know they're the champs and looking to rebound off a loss, but 13.5 seems insanely high for Minnesota.


+1



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/24/18 3:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 24

Connecticut 3.5 Los Angeles 162
Washington 4.5 @Indiana 154.5

The overnight line on the Sun had me salivating; LA was favored by 2. Unfortunately by the time I had a chance at the line the Sun were favored. I assume the early line was based on Parker playing but even if she was, points with the Sun at home is a gift. I will still take the Sun and I will also take the over.

My gut tells me that getting Washington away from home will allow them to start playing better, but they have looked so bad that I can't bet on them. Their first game limped over, and I lean to the over again but I will not make it a play.

Yesterday I was able to go 2-1, winning easily with Atlanta and getting a strong second half performance from the Wings. Phoenix laid an egg, looking nothing like the team that beat Dallas on day 1. Seattle played better, but the Mercury looked disinterested, a bad sign for the 3rd game of the season. This brings me to 8-2 on the season.


ClayK



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PostPosted: 05/25/18 9:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Love these reports ...

Good luck ...



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/25/18 3:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 25

Minnesota 7 @New York 153
Seattle 9 Chicago 159.5


Minnesota and New York will begin the Westchester experiment tonight. The line opened at 3.5 or 4 nut has jumped up to what I consider the right line. The Lynx look like a low scoring team (I use this term relating to the style of plat, not the offensive quality) and I don't have a read on what the Katie Smith Liberty will become, so I will pass.


Seattle played a very good game against Phoenix which reassures me that this will once again be a playoff team. That game was the fifth in a row against the Mercury, including a post-season loss, two preseason wins and now their first two games of the regular season. Oddly the last game against someone else was the final game of last season was also against Chicago. Courtney Vandersloot is still out for the Sky. The Storm should win but I can't lay 9 points. I will take the over as my only play because both teams seem to like up tempo play.

Yesterday Connecticut used a big 4th quarter to beat LA and the game soared over the total to give me a 2-0 night. That raises my record to a gaudy 10-2. It won't stay like this, but it is nice while it happens.


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PostPosted: 05/25/18 4:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 25

Minnesota 7 @New York 153
Seattle 9 Chicago 159.5


Let's see if 156-111 in WCB translates to the W.

I think a depleted NYL as the 1st opponent on a 3-game road swing works well for the aging, slowing Lynx, although 7 is a big road number. The NY D doesn't concern me as much as overall game pace. NY may be rusty, having not played since the 20th. I think the final spread will be determined by meaningless baskets and I'll hope those go Minn's way.

Minn -7


Not sure if Seattle is a team that will put away the teams they should, easily, on the road.

No play.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/26/18 1:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 26

Atlanta 4 Dallas 165.5
Connecticut 16 Indiana 163.5

Dallas beat Atlanta 101-78 last Sunday in Dallas. Since then Atlanta beat Chicago and Dallas lost to Minnesota. Now they play again, albeit in Atlanta, and the Dream are favored. I still believe the Wings are the better team and I will take the 4 for being on the road.

Connecticut has shown that they are one team that likes to win big. Last season they won 7 games by more than 15 points and they have already won 1 this season. I don't like laying big numbers, but I will take the Sun, and I will also take the over.

Last night Seattle and Chicago went into overtime, but the game was already over the total. The win moves me to 11-2.


RI_Sun_Fan



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PostPosted: 05/26/18 4:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sun v. Fever: I think this might be the biggest line of the year. I'd be hesitant to bet on this one. Looks too easy.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/26/18 4:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Washington was actually 18 over Las Vegas and Connecticut opened 14.5, but went up to 18, against Las Vegas.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/27/18 10:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

May 27

Minnesota 5 @Washington 158
Los Angeles 9.5 Phoenix 160
Seattle 6 @Las Vegas 159

Minnesota struggled to beat New York in its last game and has not looked like a defending champion. Washington is 3-0, but all three games have been against the two worst teams in the league (Indiana and Las Vegas). I think the Lynx will show up today and get the win so I will lay the 5 points.

Candace Parker will make her 2018 WNBA debut today, which should just add one more weapon to the Sparks' arsenal. Phoenix looked disinterested its last game against Seattle, a bad sign this early in the season. This rivalry should get them more engaged, but the Mercury have not played well in LA. I can't quite lay 9.5, but I will take the under.

Las Vegas plays its first home game tonight, and should have Kayla McBride. I will just watch to see what kind of home court advantage they have.

Yesterday was my first losing day of the season, and it was painful. Dallas won easily and Connecticut was covering with less than 2 minutes to go. But in the last 113 seconds the Sun didn't score, allowing Indiana to get a back door cover. These things happen with big favorites. But by not scoring, and having Kelsey Mitchell miss two FT in that time, one with 8 seconds to go, the game stayed under by 1/2 point. That made me 1-2 for the day, which drops my season record to 12-4.


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PostPosted: 05/27/18 3:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I begin the season 0-1, missing a push w/ the Lynx v Lib. by a point. Great way to get back into it...

Parker's playing you say? Gimme the Merc +9.5.


Phoenix gets me to 1-1. Thanks, CP3.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/27/18 8:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Today I split the two picks. Minnesota showed extreme vulnerability when Sylvia Fowles hurt her ankle in the second quarter. She wasn't the same the rest of the way and the rest of the Lynx didn't pick her up. The Mystics were shorthanded as well with EDD suffering from stomach flu, but the rest of the Stix played well, particularly rookies Hines Allen and Atkins, as well as Natasha Cloud. Once again it appears Mike Thibault has done a very good job of seeing WNBA talent where others didn't. I need to revaluate the Lynx going forward.

On the plus side. the Mercury and Sparks played to form going under the total by 8 points despite a crazy second quarter where the two teams combined to shoot 65% (57 points). The Mercury covered thanks to Odyssey Sims missing two FT in the final 30 seconds.


Watching the Aces tonight, A'ja Wilson is the real deal on offense, but overall the team is not tough up front and a little slow in the backcourt. The team should get better as the season goes on, but it will be tough for them to make the playoffs. On the other side Natasha Howard is showing herself to be worth next year's number 1 pick. The Storm look like a playoff team, and could even get a home game. (I'm writing this in the 3rd quarter, so if the Aces come back to win I can look like an idiot.)


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PostPosted: 05/29/18 5:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Don't know why this has all ended up in calbearman76's odds thread, though...


Amen. Let's keep this thread on track. Wink



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/29/18 10:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Imagine my surprise that all of a sudden this thread got so much activity when there wasn't even a game yesterday. My initial point (that Reeve gave up on Howard) is still valid, even if the reason was tied to the salary cap.


May 29


New York 2.5 Dallas 158
Minnesota 6.5 Atlanta 156
Seattle 4 Washington 167.5

Dallas is one of the better teams in the league, and so far I can't say the same about New York. I'll take the Wings to extend the Liberty's losing streak to 3. I also like the under, but I will refrain from making it an official play.

Minnesota is a team I am reevaluating. Fowles is listed as questionable and if she doesn't play, or plays the way she did after she hurt her ankle. Atlanta would look like a good play, but not knowing her status I will pass on the game.

Washington beat Minnesota to move to 4-0. I don't believe they are that good. This is the first of back-to back games (they play Phoenix tomorrow) and I suspect this will be two losses. EDD is questionable, and will probably play limited minutes if she plays at all. I will take the Storm and lay the 4 points.


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