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2018 WNBA odds
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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3129
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/04/18 9:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My cable and internet have been out for the past 2+ hours, which stopped me from playing the first game. Technology was restored (not the cable yet) so I can now take with supreme confidence of 0.1, the game under. I actually like the Storm in the first half, but I can't lay 5 for the game.

Wish I could see this first game as it comes down to the wire.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3129
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/05/18 6:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Finals series odds

Washington +210
Seattle -265

That means the odds makers are giving Seattle about a 70% chance of winning the series. The early line for game 1 is Seattle -5 and a total of 167.5. Both lines seems a little low to me. I wouldn't be surprised if the line moves closer to 6 with a total as high as 170.

Last night's loss on the total moves me to dead even for the season at 99-90-1.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3129
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/07/18 11:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

September 7

Seattle 4.5 Washington 170

The line has bounced between 4.5 and 5 this morning. Looking at their 3 meetings this season, Seattle won both games at home, 81-77 on May 29 and 97-91 on July 8. Washington won the only game on the East Coast, 100-77. Washington covered 2 of the 3 games while the July 8 matchup was a push. I like the Storm. Their matchup with Phoenix was much easier than playing a McCoughtry-less Dream. They showed true grit in the 4th quarter, a quality that had been missing earlier in the series. I don't expect a blowout, but a comfortable 7-10 point win will suffice.

As I expected the total has moved up to 170. While I would have preferred 167.5, I still believe there is some value in the over. If I can get a high shooting percentage, 100 points for the Storm is a possibility. And if that happens it will set up well for subsequent games to go under an inflated total.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 10955
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus. If u were in my safe space, you'd have to be f'd up


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PostPosted: 09/07/18 7:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

September 7

Seattle 4.5 Washington 170


...and we have reached the finals.

I took the collar in the semis, to drop the playoff record to 8-6.

Overall 49-40-1 [44-24 last 68]

I see no reason not to take Seattle tonight, which should cause concern. Wink



The play:

Seattle -4.5



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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3129
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/07/18 10:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Painful loss on the total tonight. Seattle doesn't score in the final 4 minutes to keep the game under (5-0 Washington). 1-1 today, 100-91-1 for the season.

Expect a similar line Sunday to the closing line today, which was 5 and 172.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3129
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/09/18 11:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

September 9

Seattle 5.5 Washington 169.5

NFL Sunday. Russell Wilson should be able to handle the Redskins defense. The Seahawks have lost a lot from their Legion of Boom secondary. Alex Smith knows Seattle from his time in San Francisco and Kansas City and should also have success with his new team. All that said, there is no way the total should be 169.5 - that is 4 games worth of points. Oh, this is the WNBA - never mind.

The Storm certainly looked like the superior team Friday. Washington got off to a slow start and could never climb out of the hole. The Mystics led 7-6 but that was the only lead of the game. After the first quarter they only once cut the lead to single digits at 33-24. The final showed only a 13 point game but that was less than half the largest lead (27) and the closest they were in the second half.


Game 2 is often a reversal of game 1, but in this case I believe the Storm will continue to roll. The game won't be as ugly as game 1, but I expect that Seattle will put forth a strong effort for their fans at the Key Arena in what could well be their last game in front of the home crowd. I'll take Seattle. The total surprised me by being this low. I had thought I would be on the under this game, but with a total under 170 I have to pass.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 10955
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus. If u were in my safe space, you'd have to be f'd up


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PostPosted: 09/09/18 2:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Crap. Forgot to make my pick. Was gonna go with the home team again. Oh well.



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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 10955
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus. If u were in my safe space, you'd have to be f'd up


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PostPosted: 09/09/18 3:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well, maybe my CRS syndrome will prove beneficial today. Smile



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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/12/18 2:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

September 17

Washington 5.5 Seattle 168

This is the game that sets up best for the Mystics, but the line gives them far too much respect, The line actually opened as low as 3 in some places and was 4 at the place I consider the most respected. I have to take the Storm, and I will also take the over.

Last game Seattle couldn't cover and I scared myself away from the under because the line scared me away. That puts me at 100-92-1 for the season.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 10955
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus. If u were in my safe space, you'd have to be f'd up


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PostPosted: 09/12/18 4:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

September 12

Washington 5.5 Seattle 168


I was expecting the line to be 1-2pts either way tonight. I'm stunned Wash is a 5.5pt. favorite. I was figuring on taking the Mystics simply because I'm hoping for a game 5, but now I'm stumped.

Luckily I was too late to get my game 2 Seattle selection in, so I remain 50-40-1 overall and 9-6 in the post season.

The play:

check back later



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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3129
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/12/18 5:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
September 12

Washington 5.5 Seattle 168


I was expecting the line to be 1-2pts either way tonight. I'm stunned Wash is a 5.5pt. favorite. I was figuring on taking the Mystics simply because I'm hoping for a game 5, but now I'm stumped.

Luckily I was too late to get my game 2 Seattle selection in, so I remain 50-40-1 overall and 9-6 in the post season.

The play:

check back later


I agree. I expected Washington to be a 2 point favorite, but opening at 4 and moving up really surprised me.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 10955
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus. If u were in my safe space, you'd have to be f'd up


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PostPosted: 09/12/18 6:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
September 12

Washington 5.5 Seattle 168


I was expecting the line to be 1-2pts either way tonight. I'm stunned Wash is a 5.5pt. favorite. I was figuring on taking the Mystics simply because I'm hoping for a game 5, but now I'm stumped.

Luckily I was too late to get my game 2 Seattle selection in, so I remain 50-40-1 overall and 9-6 in the post season.

The play:

check back later


I'm taking the points. I figure Seattle will, sometime within the next 3 (max) games, cover at least once.

Sea +5.5



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Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 10955
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus. If u were in my safe space, you'd have to be f'd up


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PostPosted: 09/12/18 9:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
September 12

Washington 5.5 Seattle 168


I was expecting the line to be 1-2pts either way tonight. I'm stunned Wash is a 5.5pt. favorite. I was figuring on taking the Mystics simply because I'm hoping for a game 5, but now I'm stumped.

Luckily I was too late to get my game 2 Seattle selection in, so I remain 50-40-1 overall and 9-6 in the post season.

The play:

check back later


I'm taking the points. I figure Seattle will, sometime within the next 3 (max) games, cover at least once.

Sea +5.5



A successful end to the season.

1-0, 51-40-1, 10-6 in the playoffs.

My horrendous start offset by a tremendous 2nd half.

Look for my WCB Pick Em threads, in about 2 months, on the NCAA board.



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calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3129
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/12/18 10:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

What an exciting finish to the season. With tonight's game going to Seattle and over I finish with my head barely above water at 102-92-1 (16-12 in the playoffs). That means at the standard $110 wager to win $100, out of $21,450 wagered throughout the season, I wind up with a net profit of $80, or a 0.37% return on investment. For some people this may seem like a big waste of time, but for me this has made every game that much more exciting.


Congratulations to Huskies fan for his picks that were far better than mine, particularly through the second half of the season. And thanks to everyone who has followed the journey I wish I could do this throughout the college season, but so far no books are putting up lines for the women during the regular season.


ClayK



Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 9319



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PostPosted: 09/13/18 9:20 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks to both of you for chronicling your season ...

And calbearman, don't spend all your winnings in one place ...



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