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pilight



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PostPosted: 03/17/18 7:28 pm    ::: Tournament Comparison Reply Reply with quote



UPSET is any lower seed winning

BIG UPSET is an upset where the teams are more than four seeds apart

CLOSE means games decided by single digits or in overtime

BLOWOUT means games decided by 20+ points

80-90-100 is the number of teams scoring at least that many points


Men's play-in games do not count. This is round of 64 vs round of 64.



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PostPosted: 03/19/18 10:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 03/20/18 10:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sweet 16 seeding comparison:
MBB: 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 11
WBB: 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 11 11

https://twitter.com/Raoul_000/status/975933286571790336


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/20/18 11:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

CamrnCrz1974 wrote:
Sweet 16 seeding comparison:
MBB: 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 11
WBB: 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 11 11

https://twitter.com/Raoul_000/status/975933286571790336


That's about a seed and a half per team. Not a huge difference, IMO.

Also, it's gone the other way by this kind of margin. In 2007 it was

MBB: 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 7
WBB: 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 7 7 10 13



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beknighted



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PostPosted: 03/21/18 4:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It would be nice to see the close game/blowout numbers track closer to the men. (And since they don't, what the ppg number means is that the winners are scoring more and the losers are scoring less on the women's side.)


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/21/18 7:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

beknighted wrote:
It would be nice to see the close game/blowout numbers track closer to the men. (And since they don't, what the ppg number means is that the winners are scoring more and the losers are scoring less on the women's side.)


It's more on the winners side. Winning women's teams are scoring 82.9 ppg compared to 76.9 for the men. Losing women's teams are scoring 61.5 compared to 65.3 for the men. That's 6 ppg better for the winners and only 3.8 ppg worse for the losers. We haven't had a women's team win scoring under 60 points. The men have had three such games.

We're on pace to match last year's record blowout number. This is three straight tournaments with over 20 blowouts. The only other time there were consecutive years over 20 was 1995 and 1996, when there were 21 each year.

The close game number is alarmingly low. The fewest ever in a 64 team tournament is 17 (which happened in 2002). It seems likely we will break the current string of five straight tournaments with 20+ close games. There are 15 games left in the tournament, we need 13 of them to be close to keep the streak alive.

The women's tournament is almost always higher scoring than the men's. The longer shot clock used to be the excuse. Not sure what the men's apologists will come up with now. That 50-43 game we saw the other day wasn't a women's game...



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PostPosted: 03/24/18 7:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/24/18 9:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

These numbers are very illustrative of the differences between the men and the women. Through 3 rounds essentially half (27/56) games have been close in the men vs only 18% (10/56) in the women. The blowouts are similarly one-sided. As for the upsets, it is nice to see a similar number of upsets in the first round for both tournaments, which shows more balance in the women's game, at least below the elite. The upsets after the first round (men 10, women 6) and big upsets (men 6 women 2) also show a major difference.

While I realize you have been performing this comparison for many years, I would suggest 2 slight changes which could further clarify a prime difference. On the definition of major upsets you use 5 or more seeding lines. I believe a 2 seed losing to a 6 seed is a bigger upset than a 6 seed losing to an 11. I would suggest expanding the definition of major upsets to include a 1 seed losing to a 4 or 5 seed or a 2 seed losing to a 6 seed. The difference in quality of teams at the top of the bracket is significantly greater than lower down and this would account for it. The second change would just be an addition. While I'm not sure it would be particularly meaningful after the first round, starting with the sweet sixteen add the total of the seeds for the teams remaining. This year for round of sixteen numbers were 85 for the men and 61 for the women, and the round of 8 were 39 for the men and 17 for the women. While I don't know, I suspect that 61 was probably among the highest numbers for a women's tournament round of 16. This would not just show upsets, but the ability of lower seeded teams (such as Buffalo and CMU) to advance further.

As always, these tables are very enlightening.


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/24/18 10:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

A #5 over a #1 might be a bigger upset, but a #6 over a #2 is not. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, #6 seeds have beaten #11 seeds 69% of the time (69-31). #2 seeds have beaten #6 seeds 67% of the time (14-7). #1 seeds have beaten #5 seeds 89% of the time (25-3). Note that these numbers do not include F4 matchups.

You could certainly make the case that a #6 over a #2 is of the same magnitude as a #11 over a #6, and thus should be included in the Big Upset category. I'd be more inclined to go the other way and require a six seed difference to be considered a big upset.

I didn't do any real analysis when I picked the five seed difference to qualify as a big upset, it was just the level at which the women's tournament compared most favorably to the men's in the year I started doing the comparison. Laughing

As for the close games, this year is an aberration for the women. Typically about 1/3 of the games qualify. Since the field expanded to 64 teams the number of close games has been between 17 and 25 every year. This will be the first year under 20 since 2012. Part of it is the high scoring numbers. We're on pace to have the highest tournament scoring average since 1992.



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PostPosted: 03/25/18 12:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

As for the S16 seed totals, I count 60 for this season. The minimum is 40. Theoretically the maximum is 232, but I doubt we'll ever see anything much over 90. The record high for the women is 68, set in 2007. 60 is in line with what we've seen over the last decade:

1982 40
1983 45
1984 47
1985 44
1986 47
1987 42
1988 40
1989 43
1990 51
1991 64
1992 48
1993 51
1994 52
1995 45
1996 59
1997 47
1998 58
1999 40
2000 50
2001 53
2002 58
2003 60
2004 58
2005 53
2006 48
2007 68
2008 48
2009 59
2010 59
2011 62
2012 58
2013 61
2014 59
2015 54
2016 55
2017 57
2018 60



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CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 03/26/18 3:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Elite Eight seeding comparison:
MBB: 1 1 2 3 3 9 9 11
WBB: 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 6


pilight



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PostPosted: 03/26/18 10:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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PostPosted: 03/31/18 10:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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PostPosted: 04/03/18 4:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote




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PostPosted: 04/03/18 4:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Some historical perspective



Upsets and big upsets up from last year

Close games is the lowest in the 64 team era, and the lowest ever in terms of percentage of games

Blowouts down from last year's record high

80+ games is a record high in number and the highest as a percentage of games since 1988, when the tournament had 40 teams

90+ games is the highest since 1996

100+ games down from last year

ppg is the highest since 1992



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tfan



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PostPosted: 04/04/18 4:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Point difference in NCAA tourney Rnds 1-4: MBB 665pts, WBB 1,211pts.

1st round: MBB 383, WBB 737.
2nd round: MB 177, WB 282.
Swt16 MB 69, WB 104.
Elite8 MB 36, WB 88.


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