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Creme vs actual bracket

 
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CBiebel



Joined: 23 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: 03/13/18 1:27 pm    ::: Creme vs actual bracket Reply Reply with quote

I was curious how he did since it seemed to be that he did pretty well, but it turned out when I actually looked at it, it only seemed that way because of the top 16 teams.

I guess having the Committee give you a "cheat sheet" with their prospective top 16 picks helps a lot. Once you lose that, well, accuracy falls rather fast.

Of the top 16 seeds, Creme had all the rankings correct and only placed 4 in the wrong regions (UGA, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and tOSU).

Of the remaining seeds, Creme only correctly picked 5, out of 48 (Duke, Missouri, Oregon St., Belmont, and Creighton). That's 10.4%.

In the #17-32 seeds, he got 3 correct, had 6 with the correct seed, but wrong region, and 8 with the rankings wrong.

In the #33-48 seeds, he got 2 correct, 4 with the correct seed, but wrong region, 2 with the correct region, but wrong seed, and 8 that were just wrong.

In the #49-64 seeds, he got 2 with the right seed, wrong region, 1 with the right region, but wrong seed, and 13 that were just wrong (he didn't get anything right with the #15 seeds).


CamrnCrz1974



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 03/13/18 1:47 pm    ::: Re: Creme vs actual bracket Reply Reply with quote

CBiebel wrote:
I was curious how he did since it seemed to be that he did pretty well, but it turned out when I actually looked at it, it only seemed that way because of the top 16 teams.

I guess having the Committee give you a "cheat sheet" with their prospective top 16 picks helps a lot. Once you lose that, well, accuracy falls rather fast.

Of the top 16 seeds, Creme had all the rankings correct and only placed 4 in the wrong regions (UGA, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and tOSU).

Of the remaining seeds, Creme only correctly picked 5, out of 48 (Duke, Missouri, Oregon St., Belmont, and Creighton). That's 10.4%.

In the #17-32 seeds, he got 3 correct, had 6 with the correct seed, but wrong region, and 8 with the rankings wrong.

In the #33-48 seeds, he got 2 correct, 4 with the correct seed, but wrong region, 2 with the correct region, but wrong seed, and 8 that were just wrong.

In the #49-64 seeds, he got 2 with the right seed, wrong region, 1 with the right region, but wrong seed, and 13 that were just wrong (he didn't get anything right with the #15 seeds).


With the Women's Basketball Committee, it is difficult to predict placement, given the Committee has been known to ignore its own rules and principles without sufficient justification for doing so.

Creme correctly predicted #5 Duke vs. #12 Belmont in the Albany Region.

I pay more attention with Creme to his seeding projections, rather than the geographic predictions.

That being said, in his last Bracketology projection, Creme curiously had Virginia as a #7 seed. Never quite understood that.


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
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PostPosted: 03/13/18 8:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I also wonder if the committee doesn't look at Creme's work sometimes and say, "oh, ok, let's do it that way" Why else would Dayton not have been one of those 8 to consider on the bubble?



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dtsnms



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PostPosted: 03/14/18 11:39 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How many teams in the tournament did he get right or wrong?

That's the real yardstick I look at; the seedings we've already seen the committee does whatever they feel like.

But did he get the selections right


pilight



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: 03/14/18 11:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

dtsnms wrote:
How many teams in the tournament did he get right or wrong?

That's the real yardstick I look at; the seedings we've already seen the committee does whatever they feel like.

But did he get the selections right


He got 63/64. He had Rutgers in over Oklahoma.



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Shades



Joined: 10 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: 03/14/18 1:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
dtsnms wrote:
How many teams in the tournament did he get right or wrong?

That's the real yardstick I look at; the seedings we've already seen the committee does whatever they feel like.

But did he get the selections right


He got 63/64. He had Rutgers in over Oklahoma.


But he kept on switching things around based on hints the committee would give. Without those hints, his system might not be all that great.



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