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CBiebel
Joined: 23 Dec 2004 Posts: 1055 Location: PA
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Posted: 03/13/18 1:27 pm ::: Creme vs actual bracket |
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I was curious how he did since it seemed to be that he did pretty well, but it turned out when I actually looked at it, it only seemed that way because of the top 16 teams.
I guess having the Committee give you a "cheat sheet" with their prospective top 16 picks helps a lot. Once you lose that, well, accuracy falls rather fast.
Of the top 16 seeds, Creme had all the rankings correct and only placed 4 in the wrong regions (UGA, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and tOSU).
Of the remaining seeds, Creme only correctly picked 5, out of 48 (Duke, Missouri, Oregon St., Belmont, and Creighton). That's 10.4%.
In the #17-32 seeds, he got 3 correct, had 6 with the correct seed, but wrong region, and 8 with the rankings wrong.
In the #33-48 seeds, he got 2 correct, 4 with the correct seed, but wrong region, 2 with the correct region, but wrong seed, and 8 that were just wrong.
In the #49-64 seeds, he got 2 with the right seed, wrong region, 1 with the right region, but wrong seed, and 13 that were just wrong (he didn't get anything right with the #15 seeds).
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 03/13/18 1:47 pm ::: Re: Creme vs actual bracket |
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CBiebel wrote: |
I was curious how he did since it seemed to be that he did pretty well, but it turned out when I actually looked at it, it only seemed that way because of the top 16 teams.
I guess having the Committee give you a "cheat sheet" with their prospective top 16 picks helps a lot. Once you lose that, well, accuracy falls rather fast.
Of the top 16 seeds, Creme had all the rankings correct and only placed 4 in the wrong regions (UGA, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and tOSU).
Of the remaining seeds, Creme only correctly picked 5, out of 48 (Duke, Missouri, Oregon St., Belmont, and Creighton). That's 10.4%.
In the #17-32 seeds, he got 3 correct, had 6 with the correct seed, but wrong region, and 8 with the rankings wrong.
In the #33-48 seeds, he got 2 correct, 4 with the correct seed, but wrong region, 2 with the correct region, but wrong seed, and 8 that were just wrong.
In the #49-64 seeds, he got 2 with the right seed, wrong region, 1 with the right region, but wrong seed, and 13 that were just wrong (he didn't get anything right with the #15 seeds). |
With the Women's Basketball Committee, it is difficult to predict placement, given the Committee has been known to ignore its own rules and principles without sufficient justification for doing so.
Creme correctly predicted #5 Duke vs. #12 Belmont in the Albany Region.
I pay more attention with Creme to his seeding projections, rather than the geographic predictions.
That being said, in his last Bracketology projection, Creme curiously had Virginia as a #7 seed. Never quite understood that.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32335
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Posted: 03/13/18 8:15 pm ::: |
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I also wonder if the committee doesn't look at Creme's work sometimes and say, "oh, ok, let's do it that way" Why else would Dayton not have been one of those 8 to consider on the bubble?
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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dtsnms
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 18815
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Posted: 03/14/18 11:39 am ::: |
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How many teams in the tournament did he get right or wrong?
That's the real yardstick I look at; the seedings we've already seen the committee does whatever they feel like.
But did he get the selections right
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66900 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 03/14/18 11:56 am ::: |
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dtsnms wrote: |
How many teams in the tournament did he get right or wrong?
That's the real yardstick I look at; the seedings we've already seen the committee does whatever they feel like.
But did he get the selections right |
He got 63/64. He had Rutgers in over Oklahoma.
_________________ I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63763
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Posted: 03/14/18 1:44 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
dtsnms wrote: |
How many teams in the tournament did he get right or wrong?
That's the real yardstick I look at; the seedings we've already seen the committee does whatever they feel like.
But did he get the selections right |
He got 63/64. He had Rutgers in over Oklahoma. |
But he kept on switching things around based on hints the committee would give. Without those hints, his system might not be all that great.
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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