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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/23/18 6:51 pm    ::: Filling the Bracket Reply Reply with quote

This is my first full bracket attempt using the new bracket principles. I already have a problem with Oklahoma and DePaul playing in the first round (who already played this season), but since there will be many seeding changes, particularly in the middle of bracket, I did not try to adjust it. I have listed my rating for each team and signified automatic bids with a *.

Albany Region

Connecticut (1)* vs Cal St Bakersfield (64)*
Michigan (29) vs Dayton (35)*
Duke (13) vs UAB (51)*
Texas A&M (18) vs Mercer (46)*
S Carolina (8) vs American (58)*
Arizona St (25) vs Miami (39)
Ohio St (12)* vs Albany (54)*
DePaul (24)* vs Oklahoma (44)

Spokane Region

Notre Dame (4) vs Robert Morris (62)*
Villanova (32) vs Nebraska (33)
Georgia (16) vs James Madison (49)*
Oregon St (19) vs Princeton (48)*
Oregon (6)* vs Drake (57)*
Oklahoma St (27) vs Belmont (40)*
Tennessee (10) vs Gonzaga (53)*
N Carolina St (21) vs Indiana (41)

Kansas City Region

Mississippi St (2)* vs Southern (63)*
Green Bay (31)* vs Syracuse (36)
Stanford (14) vs Northern Colorado (50)*
South Florida (20) vs South Dakota (45)*
Texas (7) vs Lamar (60)*
Marquette (26) vs USC (37)
Florida St (11) vs Wyoming (55)*
Iowa (22) vs FGCU (43)*

Lexington Region

Louisville (3)* vs Bethune Cookman (61)*
California (30) vs Central Michigan (34)*
Missouri (15) vs Little Rock (52)*
Maryland (19) vs Quinnipiac (47)*
Baylor (5)* vs Liberty (59)*
Minnesota (28) vs Virginia (38)
UCLA (9) vs UC Davis (56)*
LSU (23) vs Buffalo (42)

The last teams considered that did not make the field were West Virginia, Rutgers, Creighton (dropped out today with loss to Georgetown), Purdue, TCU, South Dakota St and Michigan St.




Last edited by calbearman76 on 02/24/18 1:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
Shades



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PostPosted: 02/23/18 7:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My Minny is a 7 seed!



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 12:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With the days running out in the regular season 4 games stand out on Saturday that could impact the bubble teams:

Oklahoma St @ West Virginia - West Virginia needs a big win. Even though OSU isn't in the top 50 of the RPI they seem safely in the field. WVU plays OSU and Baylor. OSU plays WVU and TCU. Each team probably needs 1 win.

Baylor @ TCU - If Baylor keeps winning they will get a #1 seed, most likely in Kansas City. TCU needs at least one more big win. This could be it.

Indiana @ Iowa - Indiana is the ultimate bubble team. A few weeks ago they had no shot; now they have won 8 in a row. A win and they should be in; a loss would mean 14 losses (after the Big 10 Tourney).

Michigan St @ Purdue - Both of these teams are outside now, but could still climb in. A loss eliminates MSU. A win gets Purdue very close, although they probably need someone else to fall off. But with an upset in the Big 10 tourney over Maryland or Ohio St either team could still get there.


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PostPosted: 02/24/18 10:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
With the days running out in the regular season 4 games stand out on Saturday that could impact the bubble teams:

Oklahoma St @ West Virginia - West Virginia needs a big win. Even though OSU isn't in the top 50 of the RPI they seem safely in the field. WVU plays OSU and Baylor. OSU plays WVU and TCU. Each team probably needs 1 win.

Baylor @ TCU - If Baylor keeps winning they will get a #1 seed, most likely in Kansas City. TCU needs at least one more big win. This could be it.

Indiana @ Iowa - Indiana is the ultimate bubble team. A few weeks ago they had no shot; now they have won 8 in a row. A win and they should be in; a loss would mean 14 losses (after the Big 10 Tourney).

Michigan St @ Purdue - Both of these teams are outside now, but could still climb in. A loss eliminates MSU. A win gets Purdue very close, although they probably need someone else to fall off. But with an upset in the Big 10 tourney over Maryland or Ohio St either team could still get there.


What makes you think that Baylor would pass Notre Dame or Louisville if either team wins out? Or do you believe that the selection committee will send ND to Spokane and Louisville to Lexington regardless of what happens? (Obviously Louisville as a 2-seed if they lose in the ACC tourney.)

If Louisville wins out, then they will go to Lexington as the 1-seed, Miss. St. to Kansas City as the 1-seed, and Baylor to Spokane as the 1-seed? Where would ND go in this instance?

How would Baylor hop ND if both win out? KC is not within driving distance of Waco: 640 miles, so that cancels out the G-curve argument. Will Baylor's resume be somehow superior by then? ND will have defeated the 3rd 1-seed Louisville while Texas will have defeated 2-seed Texas.

Note that I'm not saying you're wrong in predicting what the committee might do, but I am also asking what you think.


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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I believe Baylor will be a #1 seed if they win out, but it will be the overall 4 seed if Notre Dame plays Louisville in the ACC final.

The positioning of #1 seeds is something I have considered a few different ways. The new wording doesn't appear to give any preference to the overall #2 seed over the overall #3 seed or #4 seed. Whether the Committee will read them this way is another thing. I suspect the Committee will place Connecticut in Albany (no brainer) and Oregon in Spokane. I also believe they would like to have Louisville in Lexington and either Baylor or Texas in Kansas City because of the Big 12 ties.

If Mississippi St, Louisville and Baylor all go undefeated the rest of the way I could see the Committee shipping Baylor to Spokane and making Texas the 2 seed in KC. It may also be that bracket-balancing will be made more difficult if the overall #4 seed is in Kansas City. So saying Baylor will likely be in Kansas City might have been overstated. I think that would be their preference, but it may be difficult to achieve given the other objectives.




Last edited by calbearman76 on 02/24/18 1:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
Shades



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I noticed you have Minnesota listed twice. I would prefer to be in the Lexington region.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
I noticed you have Minnesota listed twice. I would prefer to be in the Lexington region.


Thank you for catching that. I have corrected it. It should have been Michigan vs Dayton. Hopefully that was the only mistake (other than my bad predictive skills)


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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
I believe Baylor will be a #1 seed if they win out, but it will be the overall 4 seed if Notre Dame plays Louisville in the ACC final.

The positioning of #1 seeds is something I have considered a few different ways. The new wording doesn't appear to give any preference to the overall #2 seed over the overall #3 seed or #4 seed. Whether the Committee will read them this way is another thing. I suspect the Committee will place Connecticut in Albany (no brainer) and Oregon in Spokane. I also believe they would like to have Louisville in Lexington and either Baylor or Texas in Kansas City because of the Big 12 ties.

If Mississippi St, Louisville and Baylor all go undefeated the rest of the way I could see the Committee shipping Baylor to Spokane and making Texas the 2 seed in KC. It may also be that bracket-balancing will be made more difficult if the overall #4 seed is in Kansas City. So saying Baylor will likely be in Kansas City might have been overstated. I think that would be their preference, but it may be difficult to achieve given the other objectives.


Ironically, Kansas City is in Missouri (not Kansas, of course), which is now SEC territory, And with Texas A&M in the SEC as well, geographic regions become less clear and more blended. And don't even get me started on Nebraska in the B1G, Notre Dame in the ACC (are the Great Lakes part of the Atlantic Coast?), and West Virginia in the B12.


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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The CAA is completely up for grabs right now since Drexel beat JMU last night. It kind of depends on the last 2 games for the seeding and then what happens after that. The tourney is in Drexel's arena (ugh) which makes it even more up for grabs. Right now it's anybody's guess.



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Fighting Artichoke wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
I believe Baylor will be a #1 seed if they win out, but it will be the overall 4 seed if Notre Dame plays Louisville in the ACC final.

The positioning of #1 seeds is something I have considered a few different ways. The new wording doesn't appear to give any preference to the overall #2 seed over the overall #3 seed or #4 seed. Whether the Committee will read them this way is another thing. I suspect the Committee will place Connecticut in Albany (no brainer) and Oregon in Spokane. I also believe they would like to have Louisville in Lexington and either Baylor or Texas in Kansas City because of the Big 12 ties.

If Mississippi St, Louisville and Baylor all go undefeated the rest of the way I could see the Committee shipping Baylor to Spokane and making Texas the 2 seed in KC. It may also be that bracket-balancing will be made more difficult if the overall #4 seed is in Kansas City. So saying Baylor will likely be in Kansas City might have been overstated. I think that would be their preference, but it may be difficult to achieve given the other objectives.


Ironically, Kansas City is in Missouri (not Kansas, of course), which is now SEC territory, And with Texas A&M in the SEC as well, geographic regions become less clear and more blended. And don't even get me started on Nebraska in the B1G, Notre Dame in the ACC (are the Great Lakes part of the Atlantic Coast?), and West Virginia in the B12.


And the Big 10 Tournament (men's) is at MSG. I don't think the people in either part of Kansas City would say they are in SEC country. But I get your point.


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PostPosted: 02/24/18 3:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Fighting Artichoke wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
I believe Baylor will be a #1 seed if they win out, but it will be the overall 4 seed if Notre Dame plays Louisville in the ACC final.

The positioning of #1 seeds is something I have considered a few different ways. The new wording doesn't appear to give any preference to the overall #2 seed over the overall #3 seed or #4 seed. Whether the Committee will read them this way is another thing. I suspect the Committee will place Connecticut in Albany (no brainer) and Oregon in Spokane. I also believe they would like to have Louisville in Lexington and either Baylor or Texas in Kansas City because of the Big 12 ties.

If Mississippi St, Louisville and Baylor all go undefeated the rest of the way I could see the Committee shipping Baylor to Spokane and making Texas the 2 seed in KC. It may also be that bracket-balancing will be made more difficult if the overall #4 seed is in Kansas City. So saying Baylor will likely be in Kansas City might have been overstated. I think that would be their preference, but it may be difficult to achieve given the other objectives.


Ironically, Kansas City is in Missouri (not Kansas, of course), which is now SEC territory, And with Texas A&M in the SEC as well, geographic regions become less clear and more blended. And don't even get me started on Nebraska in the B1G, Notre Dame in the ACC (are the Great Lakes part of the Atlantic Coast?), and West Virginia in the B12.


And the Big 10 Tournament (men's) is at MSG. I don't think the people in either part of Kansas City would say they are in SEC country. But I get your point.

I was saying Missouri is in SEC territory tongue in cheek, but Missouri and Arkansas and Louisiana are all stacked on top of each other (same longitude). And eastward you have Kentucky and Tennessee at the same latitude, so it;s really not as much of a stretch as I first thought. Starkville is 630 miles from Kansas City and Waco is 637 from Kansas City, so both schools are equidistant.


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PostPosted: 02/24/18 4:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
The CAA is completely up for grabs right now since Drexel beat JMU last night. It kind of depends on the last 2 games for the seeding and then what happens after that. The tourney is in Drexel's arena (ugh) which makes it even more up for grabs. Right now it's anybody's guess.


Whether Drexel, JMU or Elon wins the CAA I believe they will be a 13 seed, although they could slip to 14. No matter, this a down year so I don't see any chance for a first round upset.


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PostPosted: 02/24/18 4:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
The CAA is completely up for grabs right now since Drexel beat JMU last night. It kind of depends on the last 2 games for the seeding and then what happens after that. The tourney is in Drexel's arena (ugh) which makes it even more up for grabs. Right now it's anybody's guess.


Whether Drexel, JMU or Elon wins the CAA I believe they will be a 13 seed, although they could slip to 14. No matter, this a down year so I don't see any chance for a first round upset.


I dunno, they could easily be as high as 10 if it's JMU, based on reputation.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 4:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
The CAA is completely up for grabs right now since Drexel beat JMU last night. It kind of depends on the last 2 games for the seeding and then what happens after that. The tourney is in Drexel's arena (ugh) which makes it even more up for grabs. Right now it's anybody's guess.


Whether Drexel, JMU or Elon wins the CAA I believe they will be a 13 seed, although they could slip to 14. No matter, this a down year so I don't see any chance for a first round upset.


I dunno, they could easily be as high as 10 if it's JMU, based on reputation.


Reputation's one thing, but this year their best non-conference win was over Liberty and their next best was either Vermont or Bryant. They played well in conference, but the CAA is down this season.


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PostPosted: 02/24/18 9:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The biggest beneficiary of today's games appears to be Rutgers. While the loss by Indiana is by no means a bad loss and normally wouldn't adversely affect them, the Hoosiers will now have 14 losses when they are considered for an at large berth. Barring a major upset tomorrow, it appears that Indiana will play Michigan St and Rutgers will play Purdue in the first round of the Big 10 Tourney. The Rutgers - Purdue winner may be seen as more worthy of a bid unless MSU or Indiana can upset Maryland. The other teams trying to climb in, West Virginia and TCU, both lost, as did Creighton on Friday. Buffalo and Oklahoma, who were among the last in, were both able to win and solidify their positions somewhat.

Tomorrow's big games are primarily about seeding.

Nebraska @ Maryland - Some people still have Nebraska questionable because of their low RPI (65), but I believe even with a loss to Maryland and to Michigan in the Big 10 1st Rd.( their likely opponent) they should still sneak in. For the Terps any chance of hosting requires a win in this game or a Tournament title, maybe both.

South Carolina @ Tennessee - Right now I have USC as a 2 seed and a win here would make it more likely. That may not be best however, as it makes UConn more likely in the Elite 8.

Creighton @ Villanova - A loss by the Blue Jays means they will have to win the Big East Tourney, a win could mean just 1 win in the tourney could earn a berth. Villanova appears safe, but a loss to Creighton and a loss in the first round of the Big East Tournament will have them sweating a bit.

Virginia Tech @ Miami - The Hurricanes appeared safe until they lost to the other Tech. Now they need to beat the Hokies to be safe.

Oregon St @ Arizona St - Both these teams are in, but the outcome of the game could still have an affect on who gets in the NCAA. ASU has dropped out of the top 50 in the RPI (51), and as a result has made the resumes of all Pac 12 teams look worse. A win would move them back into the top 50. The biggest impact was felt by USC who, despite winning, lost two of its 3 top 50 wins when ASU went to 51 without playing and Purdue went to 53 because of their loss to Michigan St. I still believe USC is safe, but a loss to Washington St in the Pac 12 tourney might mean those 2 top 50 wins become very important. Apart from the numbers, Oregon St also still has an outside chance at a top 4 seed.

Missouri @ Texas A&M - The seeding Committee has consistently had 5 or 6 SEC teams hosting. This game will help the winner to achieve the goal. The Aggies can't afford a home loss. Missouri could lose, but then they couldn't slip up in the SEC tourney.


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PostPosted: 02/25/18 10:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Creighton at Villanova also has Big East seeding considerations involved; if both DePaul and Marquette win today (or both lose, I guess, but LOL that's not happening) that game is the tie-breaker for the Big East regular season title. DePaul and Marquette are probably both safely tournament teams, but would a conference title affect NCAA tournament seeding?



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PostPosted: 02/25/18 11:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Queenie wrote:
Creighton at Villanova also has Big East seeding considerations involved; if both DePaul and Marquette win today (or both lose, I guess, but LOL that's not happening) that game is the tie-breaker for the Big East regular season title. DePaul and Marquette are probably both safely tournament teams, but would a conference title affect NCAA tournament seeding?


The Committee doesn't seem to care about regular season titles, certainly not about tiebreakers that decide them. I actually believe they should, particularly in the Big East where they play an even schedule (everyone plays everyone else twice).

Some people still think your Johnnies still have a shot, but short of a win today and a run to the finals where they lose in OT, I can't see it.


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PostPosted: 02/25/18 10:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

These were my comments from yesterday, looking forward to today's games. This is how today's games affected the brackets

calbearman76 wrote:
The biggest beneficiary of today's games appears to be Rutgers.

They should have been, but a loss to NORTHWESTERN today means that Rutgers will probably have to beat both Purdue and Ohio St to get into the conversation again. What a collapse.

While the loss by Indiana is by no means a bad loss and normally wouldn't adversely affect them, the Hoosiers will now have 14 losses when they are considered for an at large berth. Barring a major upset tomorrow, it appears that Indiana will play Michigan St and Rutgers will play Purdue in the first round of the Big 10 Tourney. The Rutgers - Purdue winner may be seen as more worthy of a bid unless MSU or Indiana can upset Maryland.

Indiana now seems to be back in the driver's seat. 14 losses is a lot, but a win over MSU could be enough, particularly if Rutgers upends Purdue.

The other teams trying to climb in, West Virginia and TCU, both lost, as did Creighton on Friday. Buffalo and Oklahoma, who were among the last in, were both able to win and solidify their positions somewhat.

Tomorrow's big games are primarily about seeding.

Nebraska @ Maryland - Some people still have Nebraska questionable because of their low RPI (65), but I believe even with a loss to Maryland and to Michigan in the Big 10 1st Rd.( their likely opponent) they should still sneak in. For the Terps any chance of hosting requires a win in this game or a Tournament title, maybe both.


Terps win close, no change in my mind.

South Carolina @ Tennessee - Right now I have USC as a 2 seed and a win here would make it more likely. That may not be best however, as it makes UConn more likely in the Elite 8.

The absence of Aja Wilson lessens the impact of the game. Tennessee solidifies their position as a 3 seed, and could still earn a 2 with a strong SEC tourney performance

Creighton @ Villanova - A loss by the Blue Jays means they will have to win the Big East Tourney, a win could mean just 1 win in the tourney could earn a berth. Villanova appears safe, but a loss to Creighton and a loss in the first round of the Big East Tournament will have them sweating a bit.

Villanova is in, Creighton needs to win the Big East

Virginia Tech @ Miami - The Hurricanes appeared safe until they lost to the other Tech. Now they need to beat the Hokies to be safe.

Miami is in, Hokies are NIT

Oregon St @ Arizona St - Both these teams are in, but the outcome of the game could still have an affect on who gets in the NCAA. ASU has dropped out of the top 50 in the RPI (51), and as a result has made the resumes of all Pac 12 teams look worse. A win would move them back into the top 50. The biggest impact was felt by USC who, despite winning, lost two of its 3 top 50 wins when ASU went to 51 without playing and Purdue went to 53 because of their loss to Michigan St. I still believe USC is safe, but a loss to Washington St in the Pac 12 tourney might mean those 2 top 50 wins become very important. Apart from the numbers, Oregon St also still has an outside chance at a top 4 seed.

Oregon St pulled off a nice second half comeback thanks to Marie Gulich and goes into the Pac 12 Tourney as a 3 seed. The win helps their chances of hosting, but they still need a win over Stanford in the Pac 12 semis to have a good shot. As for Arizona St, they are now 57 in the RPI and they will drop even further when they play Arizona in the first round of the Pac 12 Tourney. Even a win over Oregon St in the second round may not get them back into the top 50.. Barring a loss to Arizona, ASU is in the NCAA, but a sub 50 RPI rank hurts everyone in the Pac 12, particularly USC and Cal. It could also hurt Buffalo because ASU beat them early in the season and this would be a third sub 50 loss. It shouldn't be considered that way, but it could keep the Bulls from getting an at-large berth. Buffalo is already disadvantaged because their best non-conference win over Nebraska, the 3rd place team in the Big 10, is not a top 50 win.

Missouri @ Texas A&M - The seeding Committee has consistently had 5 or 6 SEC teams hosting. This game will help the winner to achieve the goal. The Aggies can't afford a home loss. Missouri could lose, but then they couldn't slip up in the SEC tourney.

The Aggies victory makes for a 4 way tie for 4th in the SEC. Even though Georgia is 3rd, the Bulldogs, Tigers and Aggies are now roughly equal in terms of their NCAA resumes and are all fighting to host. LSU is actually the 4 seed in the SEC and will likely face Texas A&M in the Quarters. Georgia will play 6 seed Missouri and South Carolina will play 7 seed Tennessee. Wins by the Aggies and Tigers in the Quarters should get them to host.


I have found a few other Bracket projections on line and hope they will be updated tomorrow. While I believe mine are the most accurate (because I'm conceited that way) I will summarize those tomorrow. The only games of interest the next two days are the final games in the Big 12, and whether West Virginia, Oklahoma and TCU can upset Baylor, Texas and Oklahoma St respectively. WVU can salvage their season, OU may not need to, and TCU will still need to do more in the conference tourney, but it will be a start.


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PostPosted: 02/26/18 11:22 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Some people still think your Johnnies still have a shot, but short of a win today and a run to the finals where they lose in OT, I can't see it.


Those people must have been smoking the good stuff. I'm expecting a WNIT bid and maybe one home game.



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 6:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

OU on the first 4 out line , Sherrie Coale needs to get her team back on that high horse and have a good Big12 Tourney performance



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 10:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
OU on the first 4 out line , Sherrie Coale needs to get her team back on that high horse and have a good Big12 Tourney performance


Along with Charlie Crème the only other full field prediction I found that was updated today is on College Sports Madness. Real Time RPI also purports to have a woman's bracket, but it is essentially just the RPI ratings, but inexplicably lists UConn as a 5 seed. The other frequently updated bracket prediction is on Summitt Hoops, but it appears that will not be updated until Wednesday.

As expected most of the at large bids are the same on Creme, CSM and my predictions, but there are a few differences. Creme includes Purdue, Rutgers, Creighton and Buffalo. College Sports Madness includes West Virginia, Creighton, Rutgers and Nebraska (It also includes Buffalo as the aoutomatic bid from the MAC, and leaves out Central Michigan.) I include Nebraska, Buffalo, Oklahoma and Indiana. All of these teams should be seen as bubble teams. I have already expounded on most of them, but if there is one common thread that runs through my choices, it is that they have done better at the end of the season. Oklahoma is going to finish at least tied for third in the Big 12. Nebraska finished tied for third in the Big 10, and Indiana finished 9-7 in the Big 10 after starting 1-6. Indiana is the last team in for me, essentially on the basis of beating Purdue, the team that tied with Indiana for seventh in the Big 10 at 9-7, twice. West Virginia would displace Indiana if they were to beat Baylor tonight. Rutgers and Creighton both played themselves out of the tournament this weekend as far as I'm concerned. Oklahoma can assure its bid with a win tomorrow over Texas. Otherwise, both Oklahoma and Indiana will need to win their first game in their conference tourneys and hope no other surprises happen.

A few other teams should be mentioned that Crème mentions in the next teams out. He has South Dakota St as the first team out. I have them slightly lower but have not included them because in order for the Jackrabbits to get an at-large bid they would have to lose for a third time to South Dakota, and even though that might move the Coyotes into the top 50 in the RPI I don't think it will make SDSU's resume good enough. Ball St could get close with a win this week over Central Michigan, and could really make things interesting if they went on to get to the finals of the MAC tourney (I'm not sure whether they would play CMU or Buffalo in the Semis). Central Florida doesn't look like an NCAA team even if they upset South Florida in the AAC Tourney.

Creme and I have the same top 24 teams at this point. The only significant difference is that I have dropped Missouri to a 5 seed as a result of the blowout loss to Texas A&M but Creme still has Missouri as a 3 seed. I moved Texas A&M in as the last team to host.

Because I am leaving for Seattle tomorrow morning (have to take the long way because of weather so its a 2 day drive I haven't done a full new bracket, but all of the teams are the same, except for Drexel and Maine replacing James Madison and Albany as automatic bids. There were a few minor seeding changes, most notably UCLA replacing South Carolina as the last 2 seed.


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PostPosted: 03/10/18 6:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With only a few conference tournament semifinals and finals remaining, none of which will affect the at-large teams or seeding of the top 40 teams, here is my near final bracket projection. (I will post changes based on upsets in the conference tourneys, but they should be minor.)

Albany

Connecticut (1) vs Seattle (64)
Michigan (32) vs Quinnipiac (38)
North Carolina St (15) vs George Washington (52)
Missouri (20) vs Creighton (44)

South Carolina (7) vs Liberty (58)*
Green Bay (28) vs Syracuse (34)
UCLA (11) vs UC Davis (53)*
Iowa (22) vs Belmont (46)

Spokane

Notre Dame (4) vs Robert Morris (62)*
Nebraska (29) vs Oklahoma St (35)
Georgia (14) vs Elon (49)
Oregon St (18) vs Northern Colorado (48)

Oregon (6) vs Boise St (59)
Marquette (27) vs Buffalo (39)
Ohio St (10) vs Drake (55)*
LSU (24) vs Miami (42)

Lexington

Louisville (2) vs North Carolina A&T (61)
California (31) vs Villanova (37)
Texas A&M (16) vs Western Kentucky (50)
Maryland (17) vs Princeton (47)*

Texas (8) vs American (57)*
Arizona State (25) vs Virginia (33)
Tennessee (9) vs Little Rock (56)*
South Florida (23) vs Rutgers (43)


Kansas City

Mississippi St (3) vs Grambling (63)
Central Michigan (30) vs South Dakota St (36)
Stanford (13) vs Gonzaga (51)
Duke (19) vs Florida Gulf Coast (45)*

Baylor (5) vs Stephen F Austin (60)*
Minnesota (26) vs USC (40)
Florida St (12) vs Maine (54)
DePaul (21) vs Mercer (41)

Virginia, Syracuse and Creighton were moved down 1 line for procedural purposes.

The last teams left out were (in alphabetical order): Dayton, Indiana, Oklahoma, Purdue, TCU, Virginia Tech, West Virginia


patsweetpat



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PostPosted: 03/10/18 8:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
With only a few conference tournament semifinals and finals remaining, none of which will affect the at-large teams or seeding of the top 40 teams, here is my near final bracket projection. (I will post changes based on upsets in the conference tourneys, but they should be minor.)

Albany

Connecticut (1) vs Seattle (64)
UCLA (11) vs UC Davis (53)*


I just cannot begin to believe that the committee will place UCLA into UConn's bracket for the third year in a row. Folks in the other bracket thread are beefing about the prospective unfairness of Texas perhaps being in UConn's bracket for the third time in four years. How much less fair for UCLA to be sent there three consecutive years. Eff that. Some other Pac-12 team can go.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/10/18 9:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

patsweetpat wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
With only a few conference tournament semifinals and finals remaining, none of which will affect the at-large teams or seeding of the top 40 teams, here is my near final bracket projection. (I will post changes based on upsets in the conference tourneys, but they should be minor.)

Albany

Connecticut (1) vs Seattle (64)
UCLA (11) vs UC Davis (53)*


I just cannot begin to believe that the committee will place UCLA into UConn's bracket for the third year in a row. Folks in the other bracket thread are beefing about the prospective unfairness of Texas perhaps being in UConn's bracket for the third time in four years. How much less fair for UCLA to be sent there three consecutive years. Eff that. Some other Pac-12 team can go.


I must say that I didn't consider where UCLA had been placed in prior years, and that is one of the points that the Committee is supposed to consider. The difficulty is that the placement of the top 4 seeds has several different rules associated with it and so once I got one that reasonably worked I didn't go any further. As I look at it, it would have been possible to flip both UCLA and North Carolina St with Florida St and Stanford in the Kansas City region and still achieve all the principles. I won't change my bracket, but the Committee will hopefully consider your point.


myrtle



Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 22988



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PostPosted: 03/10/18 10:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
patsweetpat wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
With only a few conference tournament semifinals and finals remaining, none of which will affect the at-large teams or seeding of the top 40 teams, here is my near final bracket projection. (I will post changes based on upsets in the conference tourneys, but they should be minor.)

Albany

Connecticut (1) vs Seattle (64)
UCLA (11) vs UC Davis (53)*


I just cannot begin to believe that the committee will place UCLA into UConn's bracket for the third year in a row. Folks in the other bracket thread are beefing about the prospective unfairness of Texas perhaps being in UConn's bracket for the third time in four years. How much less fair for UCLA to be sent there three consecutive years. Eff that. Some other Pac-12 team can go.


I must say that I didn't consider where UCLA had been placed in prior years, and that is one of the points that the Committee is supposed to consider. The difficulty is that the placement of the top 4 seeds has several different rules associated with it and so once I got one that reasonably worked I didn't go any further. As I look at it, it would have been possible to flip both UCLA and North Carolina St with Florida St and Stanford in the Kansas City region and still achieve all the principles. I won't change my bracket, but the Committee will hopefully consider your point.


er.... Twisted Evil

let's send OrSU out there!



_________________
“Try to be a rainbow in someone's cloud.”
― Maya Angelou
SO ...I lost a bet with Rock about how many wins Chicago would get this year. My punishment - T. Young as my avatar. Well it could be worse!
calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/10/18 10:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Myrtle - Why did I think you wouldn't like my solution?


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/11/18 1:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Last night I listed my bracket. I will reseed the last 4 or 5 lines once all of the conference tournaments finish, but for now I will address why I put the last few teams in and why I left the last few teams out.

Why they are in:

USC - USC has only 1 top 50 RPI win which makes them questionable (and has Charlie Crème leave them out). But that win is over 5th seed Oregon St. They also have a win over 7th seed Arizona St (RPI 56) and bubble team Purdue (RPI 62). And every one of USC's 11 losses are to tournament teams, including 8 to top 4 seeds.

Rutgers - Rutgers barely salvaged their season with a win over Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament. If the Committee gave more deference to a teams play toward the end of the season (as I think they should) Rutgers would be out, but as it is their early season wins over North Carolina St and Virginia are just enough to make up for a 7-9 Big 10 record.

Creighton - This is my last team in. The Blue Jays have 4 wins over tournament teams (@Nebraska, @Marquette, Villanova, South Dakota St) and 6 of their losses are to top 25 teams. Losses to Washington and Butler make them a very tough call, but they get the final nod.

Why they are out -

Dayton - It is hard to say how good Dayton actually is, but even though Crème has them in I don't see it. Dayton played a decent non-conference schedule (52 per RPI) and went 7-4, beating Virginia and Harvard while losing to Green Bay, South Florida, Quinnipiac and Toledo. The Atlantic 10 was way down this season, with no teams other than Dayton in the top 70. A regular season ending loss to St Louis combined with a conference tournament loss to GW knocks them out.

Indiana - If I was building my tournament bracket the Hoosiers would be in. Over the last 6 weeks Indiana was 9-2 with the only losses to Iowa and Maryland and 4 wins over Tournament teams But I don't believe the Committee will see that as enough to overcome their early season losses to Chattanooga, Auburn, St Mary's and Penn St.

Oklahoma - Oklahoma is one of the top 40 teams in the country by nearly every measure (RPI 36, Sagarin 26, Massey 38) which should be good enough. But the Sooners are hurt because this year the RPI hates the Big 12, so Oklahoma St, West Virginia and TCU are all outside the top 50. That leaves them with only 1 top 50 win. Add in a 16-14 overall record, losses to both Florida and Little Rock, and I'm afraid they get left out.

Purdue - Purdue was 9-7 in the Big 10 and beat Central Michigan non-conference, but they also lost to Georgia Tech and Utah. I thought a win over Rutgers would get them into the tournament. They lost.

TCU - TCU may have been the ultimate jinx on the Big 12. They played a very weak non conference schedule (203) and lost to Yale which contributed to the Big 12's poor RPI. They beat Oklahoma twice and West Virginia once which were possibly the difference between those two teams making and missing the NCAA. And yet even with their win over Texas, their losses to Kansas and Iowa St are too much to overcome.

Virginia Tech - At first blush, Virginia Tech looked like a real possibility. 4 wins over the top 50 and only 3 losses to teams outside the top 50. But then I looked closer. The 4 wins were over Syracuse twice, Central Florida and Drexel. So it was only 2 wins over tournament quality teams. Once I made that adjustment the losses to Butler and Wake Forest as well as the 6-10 conference record made it easy to pass.

West Virginia - I could almost say, "see TCU." Non-conference SOS - 182. One big win over Texas A&M. In conference WVU was only 8-10, losing twice each to Baylor , Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. The win over Oklahoma St in the conference tournament gives the Mountaineers hope, but probably not enough.

If the bracket was set based on the Sagarin Ratings the Big 12 would get 5 teams. The Massey ratings would give them 6. The RPI would say 3, but Oklahoma would replace Oklahoma St. My guess is Baylor, Texas and OSU.


Matt5762



Joined: 27 Feb 2005
Posts: 494



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PostPosted: 03/11/18 6:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Quote:
@ESPN_WomenHoop
The final eight teams under consideration for the last four spots in the women's NCAA tournament bracket:
Buffalo
Creighton
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Purdue
Rutgers
USC
West Virginia


I have 5 of these teams in the bracket. I'm kind of mind-boggled if they agree with Creme and put Dayton not only in but comfortably so (they're my 8th team out), but I can't imagine who else it would be.


calbearman76



Joined: 02 Nov 2009
Posts: 3036
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/11/18 6:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Matt5762 wrote:
Quote:
@ESPN_WomenHoop
The final eight teams under consideration for the last four spots in the women's NCAA tournament bracket:
Buffalo
Creighton
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Purdue
Rutgers
USC
West Virginia


I have 5 of these teams in the bracket. I'm kind of mind-boggled if they agree with Creme and put Dayton not only in but comfortably so (they're my 8th team out), but I can't imagine who else it would be.


I'm in the same position as you. The only other team that I could even close to put in would be Indiana, but because of nonconference strength of schedule (something I generally give almost no weight), but that seems to go against other factors they seem to be considering.


SpaceJunkie



Joined: 10 Sep 2012
Posts: 3499
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 03/11/18 6:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Matt5762 wrote:
Quote:
@ESPN_WomenHoop
The final eight teams under consideration for the last four spots in the women's NCAA tournament bracket:
Buffalo
Creighton
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Purdue
Rutgers
USC
West Virginia


I have 5 of these teams in the bracket. I'm kind of mind-boggled if they agree with Creme and put Dayton not only in but comfortably so (they're my 8th team out), but I can't imagine who else it would be.


How can Dayton be in (assuming they are in)? How can the committee agree with Creme on something I think makes no sense? IS THERE A CONSPIRACY GOING ON? LOL


Matt5762



Joined: 27 Feb 2005
Posts: 494



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PostPosted: 03/11/18 7:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

SpaceJunkie wrote:

How can Dayton be in (assuming they are in)? How can the committee agree with Creme on something I think makes no sense? IS THERE A CONSPIRACY GOING ON? LOL


Other Committee Members Include:
Ceal Barry, senior associate athletic director, University of Colorado, Boulder
Jill Bodensteiner, senior associate athletics director, University of Notre Dame
DeJuena Chizer, senior associate athletics director/SWA, University of Houston
Leslie Claybrook, assistant commissioner, Southeastern Conference
Tamica Smith Jones, director of athletics, University of California, Riverside
Jeff Konya, director of athletics, Oakland University
Teresa Phillips, director of athletics, Tennessee State University
Deborah Richardson, senior associate commissioner, Atlantic 10 Conference
Diane C. Turnham, senior associate athletics director, Middle Tennessee State University


SpaceJunkie



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Posts: 3499
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PostPosted: 03/11/18 7:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Matt5762 wrote:
SpaceJunkie wrote:

How can Dayton be in (assuming they are in)? How can the committee agree with Creme on something I think makes no sense? IS THERE A CONSPIRACY GOING ON? LOL


Other Committee Members Include:
Ceal Barry, senior associate athletic director, University of Colorado, Boulder
Jill Bodensteiner, senior associate athletics director, University of Notre Dame
DeJuena Chizer, senior associate athletics director/SWA, University of Houston
Leslie Claybrook, assistant commissioner, Southeastern Conference
Tamica Smith Jones, director of athletics, University of California, Riverside
Jeff Konya, director of athletics, Oakland University
Teresa Phillips, director of athletics, Tennessee State University
Deborah Richardson, senior associate commissioner, Atlantic 10 Conference
Diane C. Turnham, senior associate athletics director, Middle Tennessee State University


That makes sense, since I have no idea how, if Dayton is in, how they can be seeded higher than South Dakota St (similar resumes to me, but the Jackrabbits look better at pretty much everything).


calbearman76



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Posts: 3036
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 03/17/18 11:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I did not previously review my predicted bracket to compare with the actual. In all I had 62 of the 64 teams, missing on USC and Rutgers who were two of my last 3 in (along with Creighton). The two teams I left out were Oklahoma and Dayton, who were among the 7 I listed as possible.

As for the seeds, I had all of the number 1, 2, 3 and 4 seeds correct. I also had the next 8 teams correct but had Oregon St as a 5 and DePaul as a 6. After that my seeding diverged widely as I had Minnesota as a 7, Central Michigan as an 8, both 3 lines higher than they were placed by the Committee. Dayton's position as a 9 by the Committee while I had left them out is also essentially a 3 line difference.

Based on the results of the games, I am heartened that the two teams I had seeded higher both had upset wins and the team I thought should be left out lost by 19 points.

While I don't believe it is fair to view any single game as validation of the correctness of the selection process, I believe that at least the general view of conferences can be evaluated. The SEC had 7 teams given top 6 seeds, and yet 2 of their teams lost in the first round. Because of the way the RPI works, when several teams are highly ranked teams tend to pile up wins and losses against one another and that can give the impression that some mid range teams are better than they are. The losses by Missouri and LSU, coupled with the struggle by Georgia against Mercer, indicate that the SEC might not be as strong as believed after the first 2 or 3 teams.

The ACC could be looked at similarly. While their top 5 teams are solid, both Syracuse and Miami lost as 8 seeds. Virginia was able to win as a 10 seed over Cal, but Cal was without its best player and was still in the game until the final minute. On the other hand the Big East was 4-0, including a win by Creighton over Iowa. Creighton justified its position as one of the last teams in by controlling the close game throughout. Despite Iowa's loss the Big 10 also did well. Minnesota was one of the last 4 teams in but beat Green Bay as a 10 seed. Their only other loser was Nebraska as a 10 seed that lost by 11 to Arizona St. As for the Pac 12, they went 5-1, with their only loss being by the Cal team without Anigwe. I believe the showing of the league, particularly ASU's win, is an indication that the Committee could have gone 1 team deeper to take USC, who finished only a game behind ASU.

Lastly there are the two mid-majors that got an at-large bid. On the one hand there is the Mid American. This conference was far better than usual. Ball St made the headlines early but Central Michigan and Buffalo were the two best by far at the end of the season. The RPI ranked them both in the top 25 and the conference was 7th in the RPI with 3 teams in the top 50 and 6 teams in the top 100. And yet Buffalo had to limp into the tournament as an at large team and both teams were given 11 seeds. They showed on the court that they deserved better with two solid wins. On the other hand there was the Atlantic 10, traditionally a stronger conference but this year only rated 11 by the RPI. Dayton was the only top 50 team and the conference had only 4 teams in the top 100. And yet somehow Dayton was given a 9 seed when they lost in their conference tournament. Dayton lost by 19 and George Washington, one of those top 100 teams, lost by 42.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 03/17/18 11:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I left out the case of the Big 12. The Big 12 was ranked very low by the RPI in comparison to most other ratings systems. There are a few reasons for this including some very weak non conference scheduling by several teams, but it is also hurt by a bias of the RPI that hurts good conferences that play a full double round robin schedule. Under a reasonable system Oklahoma St and West Virginia would have been top 50 teams, and TCU may have been as well, and if they had been the records of the teams against top 50 opponents would have looked very different. Oklahoma St showed it was better than a 9 seed and Oklahoma, even in defeat, showed that they were good enough to be included (although I am not sure a team should be rewarded for a 16-14 season). Indeed having only 3 teams from the Big 12 would have been hard to swallow.


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