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Right now, the team you think will win the NC is:
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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 01/21/18 9:01 pm    ::: Right now, the team you think will win the NC is: Reply Reply with quote

MS ST.

You?



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PostPosted: 01/21/18 9:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I might agree with you. I think UConn is spoiled.



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PostPosted: 01/21/18 10:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Highest probability is UConn, assuming the top six are all healthy, but not by much. I'd say the probability is lower than last season, and that probability didn't come to pass.
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PostPosted: 01/21/18 11:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Oklahoma. Cool






(....or were you talking bout the ladies' championship??)



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PostPosted: 01/21/18 11:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think it'll be between UConn, Baylor, and Mississippi St



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 1:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

At this point I would give the following percentages:

Connecticut 66%
Mississippi St 20%
Notre Dame 5%
Louisville 4%
Baylor 1%
Texas 1%
Field 3%

Before the Texas game I would have had UConn higher.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 1:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Oklahoma. Cool


Their chances will improve if they make the tournament


taropatch



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 5:44 am    ::: Re: Right now, the team you think will win the NC is: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
MS ST.

You?


Sounds reasonable. They took down both Baylor and UConn last year.



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 1:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sorry wrong quote but I was responding to Howee

I am rooting for Trae Young, he is fun to watch.


WNBA 09



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 2:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

MSST , if Vivians continues to play lights out i dont see anyone taking them down .



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 2:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The team that forces her to go left.


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PostPosted: 01/22/18 3:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nixtreefan wrote:
The team that forces her to go left.


You speaking of Vivians or Stevens ? Laughing



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 6:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

UConn still big favorite...barring season ending injury to any of the big five, maybe six.

MsSt definitely a force to be reckoned with. And we haven't really even seen Itty Bitty live up to expectations (perhaps set unreasonably high by last year's final four). But I still don't see them beating a healthy UConn again. UConn has Geno, and nobody else does. Laughing

So UConn: 80%
MsSt 15%
Baylor 3%
anybody else 2%



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Nixtreefan



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 6:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
Nixtreefan wrote:
The team that forces her to go left.


You speaking of Vivians or Stevens ? Laughing


Both, good one good one, Laughing


patsweetpat



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PostPosted: 01/22/18 7:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

U. Conn.


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PostPosted: 01/23/18 12:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think Miss St COULD win the title. How many UCon players were on the team last year. Baylor maybe could beat them. It is hard to guess who will beat them as we don't know what injuries etc will make a difference re who would beat the. Even though I'd like to see Miss St win the title there is no telling who will win it all:


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PostPosted: 01/23/18 10:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

UConn has to be the favorite, but you never know ... one injury (to any top team) could change everything.



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PostPosted: 01/23/18 6:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
UConn has to be the favorite, but you never know ... one injury (to any top team) could change everything.


How can they be the favorite if their not even the defending champ ? Id keep
South Carolina as the favorite until someone knocks them off then the favorite becomes Miss. State. The team that knocked off everyone's "Projected" favorite.



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PostPosted: 01/23/18 6:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
ClayK wrote:
UConn has to be the favorite, but you never know ... one injury (to any top team) could change everything.


How can they be the favorite if their not even the defending champ ?


Because what happened last year has absolutely no bearing on what happens this year.


Ladyvol777



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PostPosted: 01/23/18 6:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Mississippi State all they way.... But pulling for Tennessee


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PostPosted: 01/23/18 7:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

sigur3 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
ClayK wrote:
UConn has to be the favorite, but you never know ... one injury (to any top team) could change everything.


How can they be the favorite if their not even the defending champ ?


Because what happened last year has absolutely no bearing on what happens this year.


Nonsense. Look at UConn-Mississippi State last year compared to the year before. The games were practically identical!



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PostPosted: 01/24/18 12:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well, if *playing* at this prognostication is allowed, I can only say this: I really believe TX and OR will be in the final four. That is all my intuitive vibe allows me at the moment. Cool



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 7:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

a month later, and it's still MS ST for me.



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 7:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Can't go against UCONN but would love to see Mississippi State or Baylor win.



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 7:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Well, if *playing* at this prognostication is allowed, I can only say this: I really believe TX and OR will be in the final four. That is all my intuitive vibe allows me at the moment. Cool



I'd say that scenario is highly unlikely.



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 7:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'm going with South Carolina, if things line up they could win, if not Uconn.
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PostPosted: 02/26/18 7:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I like UCONN followed by Notre Dame, MS State, oregon



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 8:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Howee wrote:
Well, if *playing* at this prognostication is allowed, I can only say this: I really believe TX and OR will be in the final four. That is all my intuitive vibe allows me at the moment. 8)



I'd say that scenario is highly unlikely.


The one thing about it that makes sense is that both will likely be 2 seeds and if Texas can find its way to Kansas City they would both have the crowds behind them. So if nothing else it is bold.


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PostPosted: 02/26/18 8:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sleeper Pick , Baylor !



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 9:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
Sleeper Pick , Baylor !


Sleeper?? Not in my mind.



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 9:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
Sleeper Pick , Baylor !


Sleeper?? Not in my mind.


Seems everyone is penciling in UCONN vs MSST but the bears will be there ! EDIT : NOT without Wallace though Embarassed This really sucks hopefully not the ACL !



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 02/26/18 9:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
Howee wrote:
Well, if *playing* at this prognostication is allowed, I can only say this: I really believe TX and OR will be in the final four. That is all my intuitive vibe allows me at the moment. Cool



I'd say that scenario is highly unlikely.


The one thing about it that makes sense is that both will likely be 2 seeds and if Texas can find its way to Kansas City they would both have the crowds behind them. So if nothing else it is bold.


Ducks don't play D. They've played 2 athletic teams all year and were beaten soundly both times.The Pac12 is back to relative crap no matter what Andy says and isn't a worthwhile barometer, imo.

Oh yeah, ucla is athletic but they can't shoot ...oh shit did wallace just tear her acl??



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PostPosted: 02/27/18 5:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
Sleeper Pick , Baylor !


Sleeper?? Not in my mind.


Seems everyone is penciling in UCONN vs MSST but the bears will be there ! EDIT : NOT without Wallace though Embarassed This really sucks hopefully not the ACL !


I wouldn’t consider Baylor a “sleeper” anyway (and still don’t). To me, a sleeper describes a darker horse candidate, more in the lines of a #4 seed or deeper.



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PostPosted: 02/27/18 9:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
Seems everyone is penciling in UCONN vs MSST but the bears will be there ! EDIT : NOT without Wallace though :oops: This really sucks hopefully not the ACL !


Don't rule it out so fast. There's still Mercer. And Cal. GO BEARS


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PostPosted: 02/27/18 10:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My top contenders would begin with a tie.
1. UConn- Obviously well coached, talented, experience.
1. Miss State- Essentially the same team as last year but better with a much more polished McCowan.. Responded to a blowout in 2016 with an upset in 2017.
2. Notre Dame- Talented, well coached, just lacking depth. Never count out Muffet.
3. Louisville- Jeff Walz, Asia Durr, enough said
4. Texas- Solid all around team with a tough backcourt.
5. Stanford- Tara is the Izzo of women's hoops. She could show up with a little league team and be a final four contender.
6. South Carolina- Not the same team as last year but still very good
7. Oregon- Inoescu is the real deal. Talented young team that could surprise people
Sleepers: Tennessee, UCLA, Texas A&M, South Carolina



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PostPosted: 02/27/18 12:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
sigur3 wrote:
WNBA 09 wrote:
ClayK wrote:
UConn has to be the favorite, but you never know ... one injury (to any top team) could change everything.


How can they be the favorite if their not even the defending champ ?


Because what happened last year has absolutely no bearing on what happens this year.


Nonsense. Look at UConn-Mississippi State last year compared to the year before. The games were practically identical!



Laughing Laughing Laughing This went right by people! Laughing Laughing Laughing


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PostPosted: 02/27/18 12:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

UConn.

I can't believe there are people who think they are anything but a huge favorite.


UK1996



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PostPosted: 02/27/18 2:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
UConn.

I can't believe there are people who think they are anything but a huge favorite.

Uconn was the favorite last year too. I think they are evenly matched with Mississippi State. They could also be upset as they were last year by a number of teams.


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PostPosted: 02/27/18 2:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I consider UConn the favorite, although not as heavy a favorite as in most recent years.

That said, I frankly don't understand why Miss St isn't the overall #1 seed.


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PostPosted: 02/27/18 2:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:


Ducks don't play D. They've played 2 athletic teams all year and were beaten soundly both times.


I have a similar reaction. Frankly they've beaten PAC teams, and they beat a couple of decent but certainly not elite teams in aTm and OU. But they haven't done anything that suggests to me that they can beat any of the top 5 teams.

I think that the champion will come from among the five teams currently ranked 1-5 in the two polls. There are probably a half dozen teams capable of upsetting one of those five on a given night, but no one I see who can overcome their flaws enough to string together the wins necessary to win it all.

And considering that Baylor's guard play was already its big question mark, if Wallace is out, you can probably reduce the pool to 4.


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PostPosted: 03/01/18 2:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
I consider UConn the favorite, although not as heavy a favorite as in most recent years.

That said, I frankly don't understand why Miss St isn't the overall #1 seed.


I'm curious as to why you think Miss St should be No 1? I've looked at RPI, Massey, Sagarin, SOS & top 10 wins and UConn is clearly ahead.


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PostPosted: 03/01/18 3:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ArtBest23 wrote:
I consider UConn the favorite, although not as heavy a favorite as in most recent years.


They have a better chance than last year, imo.



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PostPosted: 03/01/18 3:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This is my opinion of the true odds (actually chances of winning) and betting line (the public perception or betting line)

True odds

UConn - 7/5
Miss St -5/2
Notre Dame - 7-2
Louisville - 7-2
Baylor - 5-1
S. Carolina - 5-1
Oregon - 14-1
Texas - 15-1

My prediction of the betting line

UConn - 3/5
Miss St -6/5
Notre Dame - 5-2
Louisville - 7-2
Baylor - 4-1
S. Carolina - 4-1
Oregon - 20-1
Texas - 20-1

The public tends to over bet the favorites.

Baylor would have been co-second favorites with Miss St until they lost Wallace. S Carolina drops due to the uncertainty of Wilson's fitness.

My own pick to win it all is UConn. They have lost 2 games in the last 4 years and both were by one point in overtime. A lot has been made of their loss to Miss St but I see it as an aberration with little predictive value. Last year UConn's bench consisted of freshman Dangerfield. This year they have Stevens and Walker both of whom are playing better now than Dangerfield was then. Four starters and a vastly better Dangerfield are all better and a year wiser But I wouldn't bet them at the odds Las Vegas will list for them.


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PostPosted: 03/01/18 3:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Since I first replied in January, I'd say it's gotten closer as between UConn and MissSt.

The Bulldogs seem better to me than last season, in large part due to improved play by Vsquared. Whether the Huskies are better or worse is debatable. In my opinion, Collier and Williams aren't as effective as last year, Nurse is better, Samuelson is more versatile, and Dangerfield vs. Chong is sort of a wash. The big change is Stevens, who is arguably better than Williams on the low blocks as a scorer, rebounder and defender.

So, I'd give a slender edge to UConn over MSU based on Stevens.
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PostPosted: 03/02/18 12:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Baylor losing Wallace makes them a very long shot.

UConn and Miss State are the clear favorites. I don't think ND or Louisville can beat either UConn or Miss State. I would still be a bit surprised if those are the 4 teams at the final 4 though if I had to place money on it, they would get my $. There's got to be an upset or two along the way to make it interesting.



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PostPosted: 03/02/18 12:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
Since I first replied in January, I'd say it's gotten closer as between UConn and MissSt.

The Bulldogs seem better to me than last season, in large part due to improved play by Vsquared. Whether the Huskies are better or worse is debatable. In my opinion, Collier and Williams aren't as effective as last year, Nurse is better, Samuelson is more versatile, and Dangerfield vs. Chong is sort of a wash. The big change is Stevens, who is arguably better than Williams on the low blocks as a scorer, rebounder and defender.

So, I'd give a slender edge to UConn over MSU based on Stevens.


interesting thoughts. I've thought all year that UConn wasn't as good as last year, at least partially because using Stevens still seems to disrupt everybody else's game. They have adjusted somewhat but it's still just not as smooth when she comes in. She looks really good against the weak and/or smaller teams but I'm not so sure she will look that good against size...which is also why I thought Baylor had a shot, but with no good lead guard, that shot just became hugely longer.



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PostPosted: 03/02/18 1:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
Baylor losing Wallace makes them a very long shot.


Duke lost 2 PG’s and a SG. They are the proper long shot.

Baylor has some nice players who can step up.



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PostPosted: 03/02/18 2:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Even at 3/5 I believe there is value in UConn. Playing in Albany I would make them roughly 95% to make the final 4. It could be a little less with a bad matchup, but i doubt it. With the injury to Wallace I would make them at least 1/5 against anyone but Miss St and 1/4 against the Bulldogs.

To me the true odds would be:

UCONN (67%) 1/2
Mississippi St (15%) 5/1
Notre Dame (5%) 19/1
Baylor (4%) 24/1
Louisville (4%) 24/1
Field (5%) 19/1

And if Las Vegas were to put up a line, it would be more like this:

UCONN 1/3
Miss St 3/1
Notre Dame 10/1
Baylor 12/1
Louisville 12/1
Field 5/1


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PostPosted: 03/02/18 1:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think this UConn team, more than any of those in past years, is beatable. it's just a case of by whom.



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PostPosted: 03/02/18 2:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

WNBA 09 wrote:
ClayK wrote:
UConn has to be the favorite, but you never know ... one injury (to any top team) could change everything.


How can they be the favorite if their not even the defending champ ? Id keep
South Carolina as the favorite until someone knocks them off then the favorite becomes Miss. State. The team that knocked off everyone's "Projected" favorite.


You're keeping SC as the favorite? Seriously?


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