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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/23/18 6:51 pm    ::: Filling the Bracket Reply Reply with quote

This is my first full bracket attempt using the new bracket principles. I already have a problem with Oklahoma and DePaul playing in the first round (who already played this season), but since there will be many seeding changes, particularly in the middle of bracket, I did not try to adjust it. I have listed my rating for each team and signified automatic bids with a *.

Albany Region

Connecticut (1)* vs Cal St Bakersfield (64)*
Michigan (29) vs Dayton (35)*
Duke (13) vs UAB (51)*
Texas A&M (18) vs Mercer (46)*
S Carolina (8) vs American (58)*
Arizona St (25) vs Miami (39)
Ohio St (12)* vs Albany (54)*
DePaul (24)* vs Oklahoma (44)

Spokane Region

Notre Dame (4) vs Robert Morris (62)*
Villanova (32) vs Nebraska (33)
Georgia (16) vs James Madison (49)*
Oregon St (19) vs Princeton (48)*
Oregon (6)* vs Drake (57)*
Oklahoma St (27) vs Belmont (40)*
Tennessee (10) vs Gonzaga (53)*
N Carolina St (21) vs Indiana (41)

Kansas City Region

Mississippi St (2)* vs Southern (63)*
Green Bay (31)* vs Syracuse (36)
Stanford (14) vs Northern Colorado (50)*
South Florida (20) vs South Dakota (45)*
Texas (7) vs Lamar (60)*
Marquette (26) vs USC (37)
Florida St (11) vs Wyoming (55)*
Iowa (22) vs FGCU (43)*

Lexington Region

Louisville (3)* vs Bethune Cookman (61)*
California (30) vs Central Michigan (34)*
Missouri (15) vs Little Rock (52)*
Maryland (19) vs Quinnipiac (47)*
Baylor (5)* vs Liberty (59)*
Minnesota (28) vs Virginia (38)
UCLA (9) vs UC Davis (56)*
LSU (23) vs Buffalo (42)

The last teams considered that did not make the field were West Virginia, Rutgers, Creighton (dropped out today with loss to Georgetown), Purdue, TCU, South Dakota St and Michigan St.




Last edited by calbearman76 on 02/24/18 1:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
Shades



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PostPosted: 02/23/18 7:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

My Minny is a 7 seed!



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 12:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With the days running out in the regular season 4 games stand out on Saturday that could impact the bubble teams:

Oklahoma St @ West Virginia - West Virginia needs a big win. Even though OSU isn't in the top 50 of the RPI they seem safely in the field. WVU plays OSU and Baylor. OSU plays WVU and TCU. Each team probably needs 1 win.

Baylor @ TCU - If Baylor keeps winning they will get a #1 seed, most likely in Kansas City. TCU needs at least one more big win. This could be it.

Indiana @ Iowa - Indiana is the ultimate bubble team. A few weeks ago they had no shot; now they have won 8 in a row. A win and they should be in; a loss would mean 14 losses (after the Big 10 Tourney).

Michigan St @ Purdue - Both of these teams are outside now, but could still climb in. A loss eliminates MSU. A win gets Purdue very close, although they probably need someone else to fall off. But with an upset in the Big 10 tourney over Maryland or Ohio St either team could still get there.


Fighting Artichoke



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 10:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
With the days running out in the regular season 4 games stand out on Saturday that could impact the bubble teams:

Oklahoma St @ West Virginia - West Virginia needs a big win. Even though OSU isn't in the top 50 of the RPI they seem safely in the field. WVU plays OSU and Baylor. OSU plays WVU and TCU. Each team probably needs 1 win.

Baylor @ TCU - If Baylor keeps winning they will get a #1 seed, most likely in Kansas City. TCU needs at least one more big win. This could be it.

Indiana @ Iowa - Indiana is the ultimate bubble team. A few weeks ago they had no shot; now they have won 8 in a row. A win and they should be in; a loss would mean 14 losses (after the Big 10 Tourney).

Michigan St @ Purdue - Both of these teams are outside now, but could still climb in. A loss eliminates MSU. A win gets Purdue very close, although they probably need someone else to fall off. But with an upset in the Big 10 tourney over Maryland or Ohio St either team could still get there.


What makes you think that Baylor would pass Notre Dame or Louisville if either team wins out? Or do you believe that the selection committee will send ND to Spokane and Louisville to Lexington regardless of what happens? (Obviously Louisville as a 2-seed if they lose in the ACC tourney.)

If Louisville wins out, then they will go to Lexington as the 1-seed, Miss. St. to Kansas City as the 1-seed, and Baylor to Spokane as the 1-seed? Where would ND go in this instance?

How would Baylor hop ND if both win out? KC is not within driving distance of Waco: 640 miles, so that cancels out the G-curve argument. Will Baylor's resume be somehow superior by then? ND will have defeated the 3rd 1-seed Louisville while Texas will have defeated 2-seed Texas.

Note that I'm not saying you're wrong in predicting what the committee might do, but I am also asking what you think.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I believe Baylor will be a #1 seed if they win out, but it will be the overall 4 seed if Notre Dame plays Louisville in the ACC final.

The positioning of #1 seeds is something I have considered a few different ways. The new wording doesn't appear to give any preference to the overall #2 seed over the overall #3 seed or #4 seed. Whether the Committee will read them this way is another thing. I suspect the Committee will place Connecticut in Albany (no brainer) and Oregon in Spokane. I also believe they would like to have Louisville in Lexington and either Baylor or Texas in Kansas City because of the Big 12 ties.

If Mississippi St, Louisville and Baylor all go undefeated the rest of the way I could see the Committee shipping Baylor to Spokane and making Texas the 2 seed in KC. It may also be that bracket-balancing will be made more difficult if the overall #4 seed is in Kansas City. So saying Baylor will likely be in Kansas City might have been overstated. I think that would be their preference, but it may be difficult to achieve given the other objectives.




Last edited by calbearman76 on 02/24/18 1:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
Shades



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I noticed you have Minnesota listed twice. I would prefer to be in the Lexington region.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
I noticed you have Minnesota listed twice. I would prefer to be in the Lexington region.


Thank you for catching that. I have corrected it. It should have been Michigan vs Dayton. Hopefully that was the only mistake (other than my bad predictive skills)


Fighting Artichoke



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
I believe Baylor will be a #1 seed if they win out, but it will be the overall 4 seed if Notre Dame plays Louisville in the ACC final.

The positioning of #1 seeds is something I have considered a few different ways. The new wording doesn't appear to give any preference to the overall #2 seed over the overall #3 seed or #4 seed. Whether the Committee will read them this way is another thing. I suspect the Committee will place Connecticut in Albany (no brainer) and Oregon in Spokane. I also believe they would like to have Louisville in Lexington and either Baylor or Texas in Kansas City because of the Big 12 ties.

If Mississippi St, Louisville and Baylor all go undefeated the rest of the way I could see the Committee shipping Baylor to Spokane and making Texas the 2 seed in KC. It may also be that bracket-balancing will be made more difficult if the overall #4 seed is in Kansas City. So saying Baylor will likely be in Kansas City might have been overstated. I think that would be their preference, but it may be difficult to achieve given the other objectives.


Ironically, Kansas City is in Missouri (not Kansas, of course), which is now SEC territory, And with Texas A&M in the SEC as well, geographic regions become less clear and more blended. And don't even get me started on Nebraska in the B1G, Notre Dame in the ACC (are the Great Lakes part of the Atlantic Coast?), and West Virginia in the B12.


summertime blues



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The CAA is completely up for grabs right now since Drexel beat JMU last night. It kind of depends on the last 2 games for the seeding and then what happens after that. The tourney is in Drexel's arena (ugh) which makes it even more up for grabs. Right now it's anybody's guess.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 1:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Fighting Artichoke wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
I believe Baylor will be a #1 seed if they win out, but it will be the overall 4 seed if Notre Dame plays Louisville in the ACC final.

The positioning of #1 seeds is something I have considered a few different ways. The new wording doesn't appear to give any preference to the overall #2 seed over the overall #3 seed or #4 seed. Whether the Committee will read them this way is another thing. I suspect the Committee will place Connecticut in Albany (no brainer) and Oregon in Spokane. I also believe they would like to have Louisville in Lexington and either Baylor or Texas in Kansas City because of the Big 12 ties.

If Mississippi St, Louisville and Baylor all go undefeated the rest of the way I could see the Committee shipping Baylor to Spokane and making Texas the 2 seed in KC. It may also be that bracket-balancing will be made more difficult if the overall #4 seed is in Kansas City. So saying Baylor will likely be in Kansas City might have been overstated. I think that would be their preference, but it may be difficult to achieve given the other objectives.


Ironically, Kansas City is in Missouri (not Kansas, of course), which is now SEC territory, And with Texas A&M in the SEC as well, geographic regions become less clear and more blended. And don't even get me started on Nebraska in the B1G, Notre Dame in the ACC (are the Great Lakes part of the Atlantic Coast?), and West Virginia in the B12.


And the Big 10 Tournament (men's) is at MSG. I don't think the people in either part of Kansas City would say they are in SEC country. But I get your point.


Fighting Artichoke



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 3:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Fighting Artichoke wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
I believe Baylor will be a #1 seed if they win out, but it will be the overall 4 seed if Notre Dame plays Louisville in the ACC final.

The positioning of #1 seeds is something I have considered a few different ways. The new wording doesn't appear to give any preference to the overall #2 seed over the overall #3 seed or #4 seed. Whether the Committee will read them this way is another thing. I suspect the Committee will place Connecticut in Albany (no brainer) and Oregon in Spokane. I also believe they would like to have Louisville in Lexington and either Baylor or Texas in Kansas City because of the Big 12 ties.

If Mississippi St, Louisville and Baylor all go undefeated the rest of the way I could see the Committee shipping Baylor to Spokane and making Texas the 2 seed in KC. It may also be that bracket-balancing will be made more difficult if the overall #4 seed is in Kansas City. So saying Baylor will likely be in Kansas City might have been overstated. I think that would be their preference, but it may be difficult to achieve given the other objectives.


Ironically, Kansas City is in Missouri (not Kansas, of course), which is now SEC territory, And with Texas A&M in the SEC as well, geographic regions become less clear and more blended. And don't even get me started on Nebraska in the B1G, Notre Dame in the ACC (are the Great Lakes part of the Atlantic Coast?), and West Virginia in the B12.


And the Big 10 Tournament (men's) is at MSG. I don't think the people in either part of Kansas City would say they are in SEC country. But I get your point.

I was saying Missouri is in SEC territory tongue in cheek, but Missouri and Arkansas and Louisiana are all stacked on top of each other (same longitude). And eastward you have Kentucky and Tennessee at the same latitude, so it;s really not as much of a stretch as I first thought. Starkville is 630 miles from Kansas City and Waco is 637 from Kansas City, so both schools are equidistant.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 4:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

summertime blues wrote:
The CAA is completely up for grabs right now since Drexel beat JMU last night. It kind of depends on the last 2 games for the seeding and then what happens after that. The tourney is in Drexel's arena (ugh) which makes it even more up for grabs. Right now it's anybody's guess.


Whether Drexel, JMU or Elon wins the CAA I believe they will be a 13 seed, although they could slip to 14. No matter, this a down year so I don't see any chance for a first round upset.


myrtle



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 4:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
The CAA is completely up for grabs right now since Drexel beat JMU last night. It kind of depends on the last 2 games for the seeding and then what happens after that. The tourney is in Drexel's arena (ugh) which makes it even more up for grabs. Right now it's anybody's guess.


Whether Drexel, JMU or Elon wins the CAA I believe they will be a 13 seed, although they could slip to 14. No matter, this a down year so I don't see any chance for a first round upset.


I dunno, they could easily be as high as 10 if it's JMU, based on reputation.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 4:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
summertime blues wrote:
The CAA is completely up for grabs right now since Drexel beat JMU last night. It kind of depends on the last 2 games for the seeding and then what happens after that. The tourney is in Drexel's arena (ugh) which makes it even more up for grabs. Right now it's anybody's guess.


Whether Drexel, JMU or Elon wins the CAA I believe they will be a 13 seed, although they could slip to 14. No matter, this a down year so I don't see any chance for a first round upset.


I dunno, they could easily be as high as 10 if it's JMU, based on reputation.


Reputation's one thing, but this year their best non-conference win was over Liberty and their next best was either Vermont or Bryant. They played well in conference, but the CAA is down this season.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/24/18 9:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The biggest beneficiary of today's games appears to be Rutgers. While the loss by Indiana is by no means a bad loss and normally wouldn't adversely affect them, the Hoosiers will now have 14 losses when they are considered for an at large berth. Barring a major upset tomorrow, it appears that Indiana will play Michigan St and Rutgers will play Purdue in the first round of the Big 10 Tourney. The Rutgers - Purdue winner may be seen as more worthy of a bid unless MSU or Indiana can upset Maryland. The other teams trying to climb in, West Virginia and TCU, both lost, as did Creighton on Friday. Buffalo and Oklahoma, who were among the last in, were both able to win and solidify their positions somewhat.

Tomorrow's big games are primarily about seeding.

Nebraska @ Maryland - Some people still have Nebraska questionable because of their low RPI (65), but I believe even with a loss to Maryland and to Michigan in the Big 10 1st Rd.( their likely opponent) they should still sneak in. For the Terps any chance of hosting requires a win in this game or a Tournament title, maybe both.

South Carolina @ Tennessee - Right now I have USC as a 2 seed and a win here would make it more likely. That may not be best however, as it makes UConn more likely in the Elite 8.

Creighton @ Villanova - A loss by the Blue Jays means they will have to win the Big East Tourney, a win could mean just 1 win in the tourney could earn a berth. Villanova appears safe, but a loss to Creighton and a loss in the first round of the Big East Tournament will have them sweating a bit.

Virginia Tech @ Miami - The Hurricanes appeared safe until they lost to the other Tech. Now they need to beat the Hokies to be safe.

Oregon St @ Arizona St - Both these teams are in, but the outcome of the game could still have an affect on who gets in the NCAA. ASU has dropped out of the top 50 in the RPI (51), and as a result has made the resumes of all Pac 12 teams look worse. A win would move them back into the top 50. The biggest impact was felt by USC who, despite winning, lost two of its 3 top 50 wins when ASU went to 51 without playing and Purdue went to 53 because of their loss to Michigan St. I still believe USC is safe, but a loss to Washington St in the Pac 12 tourney might mean those 2 top 50 wins become very important. Apart from the numbers, Oregon St also still has an outside chance at a top 4 seed.

Missouri @ Texas A&M - The seeding Committee has consistently had 5 or 6 SEC teams hosting. This game will help the winner to achieve the goal. The Aggies can't afford a home loss. Missouri could lose, but then they couldn't slip up in the SEC tourney.


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PostPosted: 02/25/18 10:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Creighton at Villanova also has Big East seeding considerations involved; if both DePaul and Marquette win today (or both lose, I guess, but LOL that's not happening) that game is the tie-breaker for the Big East regular season title. DePaul and Marquette are probably both safely tournament teams, but would a conference title affect NCAA tournament seeding?



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 02/25/18 11:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Queenie wrote:
Creighton at Villanova also has Big East seeding considerations involved; if both DePaul and Marquette win today (or both lose, I guess, but LOL that's not happening) that game is the tie-breaker for the Big East regular season title. DePaul and Marquette are probably both safely tournament teams, but would a conference title affect NCAA tournament seeding?


The Committee doesn't seem to care about regular season titles, certainly not about tiebreakers that decide them. I actually believe they should, particularly in the Big East where they play an even schedule (everyone plays everyone else twice).

Some people still think your Johnnies still have a shot, but short of a win today and a run to the finals where they lose in OT, I can't see it.


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