| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 21046
Back to top |
 Posted: 09/06/17 2:35 am ::: Hurricane Irma |
Reply  |
|
CAT 5 now with wind speeds clocked at 185 MPH. Thing looks like a one-hole bowling ball.
http://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/animations/w_446/170906032053-desktop-hurricane-irma-3a.mp4
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
The satellite view of Irma remains quite spectacular, with an
extremely well-defined eye and a large, symmetrical CDO. Reports
from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure had fallen at about 1 mb per hour since this
morning, although very recently the deepening trend has leveled
off. Based on SFMR-observed winds from the aircraft, the current
intensity remains at 160 kt. The Meteo-France radar imagery
suggests a concentric eyewall structure and observations from the
aircraft hinted at a secondary wind maximum. If an eyewall
replacement becomes more definitive, this would likely halt
additional strengthening, and could even lead to some weakening.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the model
consensus. Given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment,
Irma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next
few days.
Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, on Wednesday. Preparations should be
rushed to completion.
2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Irma is likely to
bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from
Wednesday night through Friday.
3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.
4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week
and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to
increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these
impacts.
|
|
cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/06/17 10:33 am ::: |
Reply |
|
Part of me wants a direct hit on mar a lago.
I guess that makes me just as bad as the KKK. (oh, and BLM/AntiFa for our racist/ignorant members).
ETA: W/ Chump in residence.
_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
|
|
GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8225
Location: Heisenberg
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/06/17 9:43 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| <iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/V7Ia4iiLWmk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> |
|
toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 22474
Location: NJ
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/07/17 5:59 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| Seeing the destruction Irma has done to the islands of St. Maarten & St. Thomas is so sad. Been to both those islands on vacations and they're completely destroyed. So sad. Prayers for all in it's path.
_________________
LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
Twitter: @TBRBWAY
|
|
cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/07/17 3:35 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
Irma!
Irma irma bo birma
Bonanna fanna foe firma
Fi fie moe mirma. Irma!
Needed a crumb of levity in the midst of this overall U.S. shitstorm we're in.
_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
|
|
ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
Posts: 14550
Back to top |
|
cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/07/17 5:57 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Could the latest track projection be any worse? Damn. Good luck, South Florida and everyone else from Key West to South Bend.
_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
|
|
Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 21927
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/07/17 6:26 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| I never thought I could ever be religious, but if Mar A Lago gets wiped out I may have to reconsider my beliefs.
_________________
Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.
|
|
toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 22474
Location: NJ
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/07/17 7:51 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Luuuc wrote: |
| I never thought I could ever be religious, but if Mar A Lago gets wiped out I may have to reconsider my beliefs. |
Same. I would be even slightly funnier if Hurricane Jose does more damage to it next week.
_________________
LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
Twitter: @TBRBWAY
|
|
cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/08/17 8:24 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Looks like the storm track has shifted west, putting Key West, Fort Meyers, etc in the line of fire and lessening east coast destruction.
_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
|
|
toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 22474
Location: NJ
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/09/17 9:55 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| Basically all of Florida is shut down this weekend.
_________________
LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
Twitter: @TBRBWAY
|
|
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66900
Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/09/17 10:11 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| It's not going to be as bad as some of the early models suggested. It's down to a category three now, when it turns back over water it might get back to four but when it makes landfall it will be no more than borderline four, 130 MPH winds.
_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
|
|
cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/09/17 10:32 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| pilight wrote: |
| It's not going to be as bad as some of the early models suggested. It's down to a category three now, when it turns back over water it might get back to four but when it makes landfall it will be no more than borderline four, 130 MPH winds. |
How much less destruction occurs at 130 vs 155 mph?
Key West et al are fucked.
_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
|
|
pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 66900
Location: Where the action is
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/09/17 10:40 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| cthskzfn wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| It's not going to be as bad as some of the early models suggested. It's down to a category three now, when it turns back over water it might get back to four but when it makes landfall it will be no more than borderline four, 130 MPH winds. |
How much less destruction occurs at 130 vs 155 mph?
Key West et al are fucked. |
A lot. Florida building codes require everything permanent to be able to withstand 130MPH winds. They deal with hurricanes all the time down there.
_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home
|
|
cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 12851
Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/09/17 10:53 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| pilight wrote: |
| cthskzfn wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| It's not going to be as bad as some of the early models suggested. It's down to a category three now, when it turns back over water it might get back to four but when it makes landfall it will be no more than borderline four, 130 MPH winds. |
How much less destruction occurs at 130 vs 155 mph?
Key West et al are fucked. |
A lot. Florida building codes require everything permanent to be able to withstand 130MPH winds. They deal with hurricanes all the time down there. |
They do, do they? Thanks for that!
Good to know all buildings in FL have been built to that standard.
Tampa Bay hasn't suffered a major hurricane since 1921.
_________________
Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
|
|
braveniler58
Joined: 30 May 2007
Posts: 10537
Location: Arizona
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/10/17 2:13 am ::: |
Reply |
|
The destruction Irma has caused is insane. I've been to St. Maarten myself and seeing the pictures of the destruction saddens me.
Just saw on twitter that one of the latest projected paths for Jose has it hitting New York City. Yikes. Hope that doesn't happen.
_________________
Phoenix Mercury fan for life!
|
|
toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 22474
Location: NJ
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/10/17 8:26 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| Watching the news now(ABC) and the Florida Keys are basically underwater now.
_________________
LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
Twitter: @TBRBWAY
|
|
toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 22474
Location: NJ
Back to top |
|
PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
Posts: 16358
Location: Chicago
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/10/17 12:01 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| My mother is a bit inland, but right in the path. She and her neighbors have battened down. Should hit her overnight.
|
|
justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
Posts: 8407
Location: Northfield, MN
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/10/17 1:12 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| PUmatty wrote: |
| My mother is a bit inland, but right in the path. She and her neighbors have battened down. Should hit her overnight. |
My thoughts with her and all those in the path. Hoping everyone stays safe.
_________________
↑↑↓↓←→←→BA
|
|
Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
Posts: 15734
Location: OREGON (in my heart)
Back to top |
|
toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 22474
Location: NJ
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/10/17 1:43 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Seeing downtown Miami underwater is heartbreaking. So many people didn't evacuate either. Tampa is expected to get hammered tonight.
_________________
LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
Twitter: @TBRBWAY
|
|
jammerbirdi
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 21046
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/10/17 4:00 pm ::: |
Reply |
|
| Fucking gnarly now.
|
|
GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 8225
Location: Heisenberg
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/11/17 1:29 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| My son in Tampa is staying put. My daughter in Tallahassee has gone with her family west into Alabama. |
|
ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
Posts: 14550
Back to top |
| Posted: 09/11/17 8:21 am ::: |
Reply |
|
| PUmatty wrote: |
| My mother is a bit inland, but right in the path. She and her neighbors have battened down. Should hit her overnight. |
Is she doing ok this morning? Hope so.
Scary experience.
|
|
|
|
