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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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 Posted: 07/26/17 9:31 pm ::: Why is everyone concerned about a recess appointment? |
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The chattering class on TV is all wrapped in a knot about Trump using a recess appointment in August to replace Sessions with someone who will fire Mueller.
But I thought the Supreme Court already slammed that door on Obama in NLRB v Canning.
It seems to me that the Dems will filibuster an adjournment resolution which will keep the Senate in pro forma session which will mean they're not in recess and that the recess appointments clause never comes into play under the Canning decision.
What am I missing here? Why is everyone talking about a recess appointment? When do they expect an actual recess under Canning to occur?
Oh, and Grassley said today that the Judiciary Committee calendar is full for the rest of 2017 and there's no room for confirmation hearing for a new AG.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: 07/30/17 7:42 pm ::: |
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| Isn't the deal that you can make a recess appointment unless the Senate is doing things to avoid a normal recess to block your recess appointment? The worry may be that the Senate will not go into "in recess but really not" mode. Or it could be that they will be in that mode and Trump will ignore it. What happens in that case?
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 07/30/17 8:07 pm ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| Or it could be that they will be in that mode and Trump will ignore it. What happens in that case? |
The courts block the appointment.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 07/30/17 8:36 pm ::: |
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| justintyme wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
| Or it could be that they will be in that mode and Trump will ignore it. What happens in that case? |
The courts block the appointment. |
The interesting thing is what happens if Trump ignores the law, makes the appointment, and the new AG immedietely fires Mueller and disbands his office and group. He could instruct DOJ to take control of all the records and documents, etc.
Even if we assume the courts act quickly to declare the appointment invalid and invalidate the actions, can they ever put Humpty Dumpty together again? Can the damage be undone?
It takes the courts a little time to sort things out, but the appointment is theoretically effective immedietely. Heck, the appointment could be made and Mueller fired behind closed doors before the public and the Senate ever know about it.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 07/30/17 8:40 pm ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| The worry may be that the Senate will not go into "in recess but really not" mode. |
It's called a pro forma session, which is what I said in my initial post.
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 07/30/17 8:52 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
| Or it could be that they will be in that mode and Trump will ignore it. What happens in that case? |
The courts block the appointment. |
The interesting thing is what happens if Trump ignores the law, makes the appointment, and the new AG immedietely fires Mueller and disbands his office and group. He could instruct DOJ to take control of all the records and documents, etc.
Even if we assume the courts act quickly to declare the appointment invalid and invalidate the actions, can they ever put Humpty Dumpty together again? Can the damage be undone?
It takes the courts a little time to sort things out, but the appointment is theoretically effective immedietely. Heck, the appointment could be made and Mueller fired behind closed doors before the public and the Senate ever know about it. |
In that case I would guess impeachment proceedings begin. There is basically no way to swing that to make it sound like anything except a gross abuse of power. President Pense has got to be looking fairly good to the GOP right about now.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: 07/30/17 9:15 pm ::: Re: Why is everyone concerned about a recess appointment? |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
It seems to me that the Dems will filibuster an adjournment resolution which will keep the Senate in pro forma session which will mean they're not in recess and that the recess appointments clause never comes into play under the Canning decision. |
It seems like most Republicans are against the removal of Sessions and I thought they were planning to avoid recess as well.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 07/30/17 11:22 pm ::: Re: Why is everyone concerned about a recess appointment? |
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| tfan wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
It seems to me that the Dems will filibuster an adjournment resolution which will keep the Senate in pro forma session which will mean they're not in recess and that the recess appointments clause never comes into play under the Canning decision. |
It seems like most Republicans are against the removal of Sessions and I thought they were planning to avoid recess as well. |
They may cooperate in avoiding a recess, but that was not evident five days ago when I wrote that post, and my point was that the Dems can probably prevent it by themselves.
I was asking why the left media was so wrapped in a pretzel about a recess appointment as if it was easy or automatic.
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scullyfu
Joined: 01 Jan 2006
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| Posted: 07/31/17 8:29 am ::: |
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| justintyme wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
| Or it could be that they will be in that mode and Trump will ignore it. What happens in that case? |
The courts block the appointment. |
The interesting thing is what happens if Trump ignores the law, makes the appointment, and the new AG immedietely fires Mueller and disbands his office and group. He could instruct DOJ to take control of all the records and documents, etc.
Even if we assume the courts act quickly to declare the appointment invalid and invalidate the actions, can they ever put Humpty Dumpty together again? Can the damage be undone?
It takes the courts a little time to sort things out, but the appointment is theoretically effective immedietely. Heck, the appointment could be made and Mueller fired behind closed doors before the public and the Senate ever know about it. |
In that case I would guess impeachment proceedings begin. There is basically no way to swing that to make it sound like anything except a gross abuse of power. President Pense has got to be looking fairly good to the GOP right about now. |
wouldn't be too sure about Pence taking over; he's got plenty of problems of his own with regard to Flynn & lying about knowledge of Flynn's activities. he's dirty.
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 07/31/17 8:47 am ::: |
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| scullyfu wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
| Or it could be that they will be in that mode and Trump will ignore it. What happens in that case? |
The courts block the appointment. |
The interesting thing is what happens if Trump ignores the law, makes the appointment, and the new AG immedietely fires Mueller and disbands his office and group. He could instruct DOJ to take control of all the records and documents, etc.
Even if we assume the courts act quickly to declare the appointment invalid and invalidate the actions, can they ever put Humpty Dumpty together again? Can the damage be undone?
It takes the courts a little time to sort things out, but the appointment is theoretically effective immedietely. Heck, the appointment could be made and Mueller fired behind closed doors before the public and the Senate ever know about it. |
In that case I would guess impeachment proceedings begin. There is basically no way to swing that to make it sound like anything except a gross abuse of power. President Pence has got to be looking fairly good to the GOP right about now. |
wouldn't be too sure about Pence taking over; he's got plenty of problems of his own with regard to Flynn & lying about knowledge of Flynn's activities. he's dirty. |
Not on this issue. What his role was in the whole Russia thing will require Mueller to finish his investigation. If Trump did what Art outlined, it would be hard to pull Pence in.
Really, I think Trump's biggest threat for impeachment isn't Mueller and the investigation, it's himself. His narcissistic need for control and being "right" could lead him to do something that is such a clear abuse of power that even the GOP can't excuse it. In that case Pence would not be involved.
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Howee
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tfan
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PUmatty
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| Posted: 07/31/17 7:45 pm ::: |
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Graham says a lot of things before he consistently falls in line.
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 07/31/17 8:26 pm ::: |
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| PUmatty wrote: |
Graham says a lot of things before he consistently falls in line. |
Not to mention the total absence of any indication whatsoever that any Republicans in the House have the slightest interest in breaking with Trump, much less impeaching him.
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justintyme
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| Posted: 07/31/17 8:41 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
Graham says a lot of things before he consistently falls in line. |
Not to mention the total absence of any indication whatsoever that any Republicans in the House have the slightest interest in breaking with Trump, much less impeaching him. |
I don't think they will unless he does something along the lines of what you described above. If he goes that far beyond the pale they will be desperate to keep their seats in '18...
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ArtBest23
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| Posted: 08/01/17 1:35 pm ::: |
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| justintyme wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
Graham says a lot of things before he consistently falls in line. |
Not to mention the total absence of any indication whatsoever that any Republicans in the House have the slightest interest in breaking with Trump, much less impeaching him. |
I don't think they will unless he does something along the lines of what you described above. If he goes that far beyond the pale they will be desperate to keep their seats in '18... |
In the House, they are a lot more concerned about the primary than the general election, most of which are completely rigged for one party or the other. But GOP house members are afraid that the Trump cult will turn on them and back a primary challenger.
I don't think there is anything Trump could do that would cause him to lose that last 35%. That might not be enough to win re-election, but it's enough to defeat in a GOP primary any congressman who dares to turn on Trump or support impeachment.
Remember when Trump bragged "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters"? I think that is more true today than it was when he said it during the campaign. Most people are completely locked in. The appointments clause issues are vague enough to give plenty of room for excuses to those who want to find one and blame the media and "enemies". I just don't see that firing Mueller will change the calculus. Even the Senators who talk a big game will, in the end, do nothing.
Heck, a second GOP member of the House judiciary committee called for Mueller to resign today. Does that sound like a group ready to vote out an impeachment resolution if Mueller gets fired?
I think talk about impeachment is just wishful thinking. And I think Trump knows that in the end he'll have to put up with a lot of screaming but can likely weather the storm and survive.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 08/01/17 1:45 pm ::: |
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| Don't forget, a lot of those GOP Representatives were elected by the same forces that elected Trump. Trump isn't the start of some wing of the GOP - he is part and parcel with what that wing has been electing. Plenty of those Reps don't just publicly support Trump because they are afraid of challenges; they publicly support him because they really do support him.
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justintyme
Joined: 08 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 08/01/17 2:10 pm ::: |
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| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
Graham says a lot of things before he consistently falls in line. |
Not to mention the total absence of any indication whatsoever that any Republicans in the House have the slightest interest in breaking with Trump, much less impeaching him. |
I don't think they will unless he does something along the lines of what you described above. If he goes that far beyond the pale they will be desperate to keep their seats in '18... |
In the House, they are a lot more concerned about the primary than the general election, most of which are completely rigged for one party or the other. But GOP house members are afraid that the Trump cult will turn on them and back a primary challenger.
I don't think there is anything Trump could do that would cause him to lose that last 35%. That might not be enough to win re-election, but it's enough to defeat in a GOP primary any congressman who dares to turn on Trump or support impeachment.
Remember when Trump bragged "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters"? I think that is more true today than it was when he said it during the campaign. Most people are completely locked in. The appointments clause issues are vague enough to give plenty of room for excuses to those who want to find one and blame the media and "enemies". I just don't see that firing Mueller will change the calculus. Even the Senators who talk a big game will, in the end, do nothing.
Heck, a second GOP member of the House judiciary committee called for Mueller to resign today. Does that sound like a group ready to vote out an impeachment resolution if Mueller gets fired?
I think talk about impeachment is just wishful thinking. And I think Trump knows that in the end he'll have to put up with a lot of screaming but can likely weather the storm and survive. |
Except in the house they only need a majority. I think it fair to assume under the extreme circumstances outlined that every Democrat votes for the articles. Then they only need 24 votes from Republicans. There are more than enough Republicans running in districts that will face strong Democratic opposition in '18. For instance, there are 3 Republican Reps from Minnesota who barely won in '16 and who are already facing major backlash due to voting for Trumpcare. And even in most Republican districts Trump is now despised. While they would rather him than a Democrat, Pence might be a reasonable solution in their eyes with little fallout from putting him in power.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 08/01/17 2:59 pm ::: |
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| justintyme wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| justintyme wrote: |
| ArtBest23 wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
Graham says a lot of things before he consistently falls in line. |
Not to mention the total absence of any indication whatsoever that any Republicans in the House have the slightest interest in breaking with Trump, much less impeaching him. |
I don't think they will unless he does something along the lines of what you described above. If he goes that far beyond the pale they will be desperate to keep their seats in '18... |
In the House, they are a lot more concerned about the primary than the general election, most of which are completely rigged for one party or the other. But GOP house members are afraid that the Trump cult will turn on them and back a primary challenger.
I don't think there is anything Trump could do that would cause him to lose that last 35%. That might not be enough to win re-election, but it's enough to defeat in a GOP primary any congressman who dares to turn on Trump or support impeachment.
Remember when Trump bragged "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters"? I think that is more true today than it was when he said it during the campaign. Most people are completely locked in. The appointments clause issues are vague enough to give plenty of room for excuses to those who want to find one and blame the media and "enemies". I just don't see that firing Mueller will change the calculus. Even the Senators who talk a big game will, in the end, do nothing.
Heck, a second GOP member of the House judiciary committee called for Mueller to resign today. Does that sound like a group ready to vote out an impeachment resolution if Mueller gets fired?
I think talk about impeachment is just wishful thinking. And I think Trump knows that in the end he'll have to put up with a lot of screaming but can likely weather the storm and survive. |
Except in the house they only need a majority. I think it fair to assume under the extreme circumstances outlined that every Democrat votes for the articles. Then they only need 24 votes from Republicans. There are more than enough Republicans running in districts that will face strong Democratic opposition in '18. For instance, there are 3 Republican Reps from Minnesota who barely won in '16 and who are already facing major backlash due to voting for Trumpcare. And even in most Republican districts Trump is now despised. While they would rather him than a Democrat, Pence might be a reasonable solution in their eyes with little fallout from putting him in power. |
You have to have a Speaker willing to bring the articles to the floor. Ryan isn't going to do that without a large majority of Republicans behind him.
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tfan
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: 08/01/17 3:06 pm ::: |
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| PUmatty wrote: |
| Don't forget, a lot of those GOP Representatives were elected by the same forces that elected Trump. Trump isn't the start of some wing of the GOP - he is part and parcel with what that wing has been electing. Plenty of those Reps don't just publicly support Trump because they are afraid of challenges; they publicly support him because they really do support him. |
What issues are key to that wing?
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tfan
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| Posted: 08/01/17 3:12 pm ::: |
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| An article highlighted some tweets about Scaramucci. One was "30 years from now the only White House Communications Director I will remember is Anthony Scaramucci".
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mercfan3
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 08/01/17 5:18 pm ::: |
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| tfan wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
| Don't forget, a lot of those GOP Representatives were elected by the same forces that elected Trump. Trump isn't the start of some wing of the GOP - he is part and parcel with what that wing has been electing. Plenty of those Reps don't just publicly support Trump because they are afraid of challenges; they publicly support him because they really do support him. |
What issues are key to that wing? |
Hating Obama, mostly.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 08/01/17 5:31 pm ::: |
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| mercfan3 wrote: |
| tfan wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
| Don't forget, a lot of those GOP Representatives were elected by the same forces that elected Trump. Trump isn't the start of some wing of the GOP - he is part and parcel with what that wing has been electing. Plenty of those Reps don't just publicly support Trump because they are afraid of challenges; they publicly support him because they really do support him. |
What issues are key to that wing? |
Hating Obama, mostly. |
Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
Step out of line, the men come and take you away
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