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Kelsey Plum, a bust or too early?
Yes
19%
 19%  [ 16 ]
Too early to tell
71%
 71%  [ 59 ]
No
9%
 9%  [ 8 ]
Total Votes : 83

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ClayK



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PostPosted: 08/26/17 11:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

She's better, but last five games ...

18 of 50, 8 of 21 from three

27 assists, 23 turnovers

That's definitely below average offense, except for three-point percentage, and from what I've seen, she's a below average defender.

Improvement? Yes. Enough improvement? Not really.

But maybe a year overseas and she'll improve some more.



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tfan



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PostPosted: 08/26/17 4:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Plum has missed an amazing amount of 2 point shots this year for college's all-time scorer, from scoop layups to 10 foot jumpers. But that is probably the easiest thing for her to improve. She did improve on her 3 point shooting from how she started out.

Her ball handling has to improve. She wasn't a full-time point guard in college and it shows. She is very vulnerable to double teams, particularly up top by the sidelines. But along with her turnovers on offense, I think she has a higher than average amount of "nice pass!" passes.

She won't ever be an above average defender because her arms aren't long enough and she isn't tall enough and she doesn't have blazing speed, but she has shown an ability to move laterally fairly quickly, so she can probably get by if her offense is a good enough counter.


Jet Jaguar



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 8:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So with her rookie season over. It's obvious she "can't shoot" (under 35% shooting) and she's turnover prone (1.36 as/to ratio) what do you think will happen to her next year? Maybe this happens:
1. They let her play 6-7 games and if she's not killing it, they sit her for the rest of the season. Because you know, that's how you improve...
2. They cut her mid-season with no trade
3. She is basically out of the league after next year except for a couple cups of coffee when it's obvious the teams don't really intend on using her.


Or what should happen, is she gets an opportunity to improve on a rookie year. You know because young players don't always put up eye popping numbers their first year or so (Vandersloot, January, Diggins, Loyd,etc)

I think all of you can see how ridiculous the first scenario is. But most of you were too stupid to admit it.



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zune69



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 9:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Plum:8.5p/3.4a/34%/36%/87%.....Was Plum's rookie season any worst than Diggins/Vandersloot ?

Diggins:8.5p/3.8a/33%/24%/83%

Sloot:6.5p/3.7a/39%/27%/76%

Another thing to consider is that Plum hurt her ankle during preseason.She played much better in the 2nd half of the season.

Last 10 games:
12.4p/5.4/37%/45%/93%

Plum will be a top 4 pg in 3 years.


RP



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 9:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Last 20 games:
Code:

 MIN   FGM   FGA    FG%   3PM   3PA    3P%   FTM   FTA    FT%  OREB  DREB   REB   AST   STL   BLK    TO    PTS
28.7   3.6   9.5   37.9   1.5   3.7   41.1   2.7   3.0   90.0   0.4   2.0   2.4   4.4   0.5   0.2   2.9   11.4


Still a high number of turnovers, but that is a minor concern for a rookie point guard.


ClayK



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 10:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The jury is still out ... though some players have taken major steps forward after similar first seasons, others have not.

But SA has little to lose by giving her a serious shot next year, and presumably a winter overseas will help too.



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Jet Jaguar



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 5:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RP wrote:

Still a high number of turnovers, but that is a minor concern for a rookie point guard.

Really? That was not the impression I got. I guess it's only for certain players.



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Jet Jaguar



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 6:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

zune69 wrote:
Plum will be a top 4 pg in 3 years.

Wow. Some players get 3 whole years to show what they got. Must be nice...



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Queenie



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 7:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Dude. Let it go. If Sammy can, you can.



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Nerd2



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 7:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Jet Jaguar wrote:
zune69 wrote:
Plum will be a top 4 pg in 3 years.

Wow. Some players get 3 whole years to show what they got. Must be nice...


Lottery picks in general will get more leeway than other draft picks due to their perceived value. And the statement didn't say they would put up with poor performance for 3 years but rather that she would come in the next year with improvement implied and improve and be elite the year after that

Prahalis was given chances on 4 teams in 3 years. If she didn't come in ready to wow them, that's on her.


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PostPosted: 09/04/17 7:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
The jury is still out ... though some players have taken major steps forward after similar first seasons, others have not.

But SA has little to lose by giving her a serious shot next year, and presumably a winter overseas will help too.


I would not be surprised if they try to trade her though. I love Plum but I think Jefferson and McBride should be their backcourt. Plum would need to play major minutes somewhere in order to improve in her 2nd year.


RP



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 7:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Jet Jaguar wrote:
RP wrote:

Still a high number of turnovers, but that is a minor concern for a rookie point guard.

Really? That was not the impression I got. I guess it's only for certain players.


There is definitely some luck involved, but Prahalis needed an outside shot to stick at this level. Her career 2P% is only slightly higher than Leilani Mitchell's, who has made her living with a deadly three-pointer.

Plenty of other first/early second rounders with the same fate: Andrea Riley, Alison Lacey, Lindsey Moore, Tiffany Bias, Sam Logic, Brianna Kiesel, etc.


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PostPosted: 09/04/17 8:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nerd2 wrote:
ClayK wrote:
The jury is still out ... though some players have taken major steps forward after similar first seasons, others have not.

But SA has little to lose by giving her a serious shot next year, and presumably a winter overseas will help too.


I would not be surprised if they try to trade her though. I love Plum but I think Jefferson and McBride should be their backcourt. Plum would need to play major minutes somewhere in order to improve in her 2nd year.

But do they trust Jefferson to stay healthy? After starting this season hurt she was banged up and in and out of the lineup all season long. Now there are those reports of a long-term absence out of Turkey. After already trading away DRob they don't want to give up on another starting point guard option if Jefferson isn't going to be able to stay on the floor.

The head coach decision might play into it as well. Johnson clearly didn't fancy the idea of playing Plum and Jefferson together, but a new head coach might think it could work. Then maybe you're not so keen to ship one of them out.



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Nerd2



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 8:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Nerd2 wrote:
ClayK wrote:
The jury is still out ... though some players have taken major steps forward after similar first seasons, others have not.

But SA has little to lose by giving her a serious shot next year, and presumably a winter overseas will help too.


I would not be surprised if they try to trade her though. I love Plum but I think Jefferson and McBride should be their backcourt. Plum would need to play major minutes somewhere in order to improve in her 2nd year.

But do they trust Jefferson to stay healthy? After starting this season hurt she was banged up and in and out of the lineup all season long. Now there are those reports of a long-term absence out of Turkey. After already trading away DRob they don't want to give up on another starting point guard option if Jefferson isn't going to be able to stay on the floor.

The head coach decision might play into it as well. Johnson clearly didn't fancy the idea of playing Plum and Jefferson together, but a new head coach might think it could work. Then maybe you're not so keen to ship one of them out.


Valid points. I think the big question is whether that knee issue was, say, a consequence of compensating for the ankle injury she suffered on Galatasaray.


pilight



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PostPosted: 09/04/17 8:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Nerd2 wrote:
ClayK wrote:
The jury is still out ... though some players have taken major steps forward after similar first seasons, others have not.

But SA has little to lose by giving her a serious shot next year, and presumably a winter overseas will help too.


I would not be surprised if they try to trade her though. I love Plum but I think Jefferson and McBride should be their backcourt. Plum would need to play major minutes somewhere in order to improve in her 2nd year.


Depends how serious Jefferson's injury is. She may not be able to play overseas at all this winter.



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TotalCardinalMove



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 1:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Jefferson probably shouldn't have been playing if she wasn't 100%. Goes to show she's still significantly better than Plum (in Johnson's eyes) even when she's not healthy. I think Jefferson & McBride >>>> over any other possible combination in the backcourt they could make. I think the smarter move would be to trade Plum and just get a backup PG/SG that's a better fit.


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PostPosted: 09/05/17 2:18 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Plum and #13 to Seattle for #5.

Most years it would be insane to suggest a #1 pick and something for a #5, but this could be the exception. I could see Seattle being very interested in getting Plum (This could be ab exception to the anti local girl theory as I think Plum fits with the team and would draw fans), but most of the possible draftee at #5 next year (Russell, Turner, Deshields, a falling G. Williams or K. Mitchell) would probably go #1 in 2017. SA can throw in the #13 pick which will still net Seattle a viable rotational player (there should be a few wings and a couple of bigs that have potential still on the board) and bring in Plum who might be a better fit in Seattle behind Bird for a year and in the future as a scary 3rd option on offense with Loyd and Stewart.

SA will once again have a lottery pick hopefully #1 and a #5 pick in a stronger draft. And can draft players specifically to pair with the back-court of Jefferson and McBride. Add say A. Wilson and Deshields, round out the starters with Harrison, you suddenly have a team that fits together and can at least start to build towards competing. Get screwed in the lottery, you could still grab say G. Williams at 2 or 3 and a big Russell, Turner or Billings at #5 and the team still makes more sense. (Maybe Riley could get Seattle to throw their 2nd round pick back so you get Plum and #13 for #5 and #17, #17 in 2018 might be able to beat out Holmes, Murphy, Colson, A. Montgomery or maybe even Coffey or Hamby.)


ClayK



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 10:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Dumping a first-overall pick after one year for anything less than a proven starter or a proven player in the draft (if there is such a thing) is simply not going to happen. The headline would essentially read "We lied and we're stupid too."



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bballjunkie



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 10:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think everyone knew this year was a bust, SA just got caught as everyone else didn't bite the tradebait. Why would Seattle want a PG who doesn't Play D, they already play Clark over better offensive players.


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PostPosted: 09/05/17 10:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

bballjunkie wrote:
Why would Seattle want a PG who doesn't Play D


As a successor to Bird?



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 11:10 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Dumping a first-overall pick after one year for anything less than a proven starter or a proven player in the draft (if there is such a thing) is simply not going to happen. The headline would essentially read "We lied and we're stupid too."


Well the Wings practically did that when they traded Zahui B away after one season. Some one on the Dallas coaching staff probably measured her height and found out that she was NOT six feet five inches tall. Laughing



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 11:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Rock Hard wrote:
ClayK wrote:
Dumping a first-overall pick after one year for anything less than a proven starter or a proven player in the draft (if there is such a thing) is simply not going to happen. The headline would essentially read "We lied and we're stupid too."


Well the Wings practically did that when they traded Zahui B away after one season. Some one on the Dallas coaching staff probably measured her height and found out that she was NOT six feet five inches tall. Laughing


And the wings will quietly waive #3 Akhator next year too...or include her in a package deal that lets another team do the waiving.



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Angus24



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 11:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Unless Riley has lost hr mind completely I don't see Plum getting traded to Seattle unless it was for Stewart. I am afraid that Jeffersons future is very iffy at this point with what is evidently a knee problem of the kind you don't fix with surgery. If that is the case I don't see her being the pg of the future for SAS. I think Plum will do just fine as SAS pg of the future. She is bigger, stronger, and a better shooter than Jefferson.


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PostPosted: 09/05/17 1:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Angus24 wrote:
Unless Riley has lost hr mind completely I don't see Plum getting traded to Seattle unless it was for Stewart. I am afraid that Jeffersons future is very iffy at this point with what is evidently a knee problem of the kind you don't fix with surgery. If that is the case I don't see her being the pg of the future for SAS. I think Plum will do just fine as SAS pg of the future. She is bigger, stronger, and a better shooter than Jefferson.


Plum isn't better than Jefferson at anything by the moment, don't think it's very close. Just compare their rookie seasons.


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PostPosted: 09/05/17 1:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

TotalCardinalMove wrote:
Angus24 wrote:
Unless Riley has lost hr mind completely I don't see Plum getting traded to Seattle unless it was for Stewart. I am afraid that Jeffersons future is very iffy at this point with what is evidently a knee problem of the kind you don't fix with surgery. If that is the case I don't see her being the pg of the future for SAS. I think Plum will do just fine as SAS pg of the future. She is bigger, stronger, and a better shooter than Jefferson.


Plum isn't better than Jefferson at anything by the moment, don't think it's very close. Just compare their rookie seasons.


She's better at being able to get on the court. The best ability is availability.



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Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 1:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
TotalCardinalMove wrote:
Angus24 wrote:
Unless Riley has lost hr mind completely I don't see Plum getting traded to Seattle unless it was for Stewart. I am afraid that Jeffersons future is very iffy at this point with what is evidently a knee problem of the kind you don't fix with surgery. If that is the case I don't see her being the pg of the future for SAS. I think Plum will do just fine as SAS pg of the future. She is bigger, stronger, and a better shooter than Jefferson.


Plum isn't better than Jefferson at anything by the moment, don't think it's very close. Just compare their rookie seasons.


She's better at being able to get on the court. The best ability is availability.


Indeed. It's a little like asking whether Kelly Miller was as good as Jackie Stiles? Well, Stiles could never stay on the court, so what difference does it make? Same thing applies here: if Jefferson can't play, who cares if she's "better"?



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 1:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
TotalCardinalMove wrote:
Angus24 wrote:
Unless Riley has lost hr mind completely I don't see Plum getting traded to Seattle unless it was for Stewart. I am afraid that Jeffersons future is very iffy at this point with what is evidently a knee problem of the kind you don't fix with surgery. If that is the case I don't see her being the pg of the future for SAS. I think Plum will do just fine as SAS pg of the future. She is bigger, stronger, and a better shooter than Jefferson.


Plum isn't better than Jefferson at anything by the moment, don't think it's very close. Just compare their rookie seasons.


She's better at being able to get on the court. The best ability is availability.


Unless you want to make pilight's MVP poll Wink



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TotalCardinalMove



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 1:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
TotalCardinalMove wrote:
Angus24 wrote:
Unless Riley has lost hr mind completely I don't see Plum getting traded to Seattle unless it was for Stewart. I am afraid that Jeffersons future is very iffy at this point with what is evidently a knee problem of the kind you don't fix with surgery. If that is the case I don't see her being the pg of the future for SAS. I think Plum will do just fine as SAS pg of the future. She is bigger, stronger, and a better shooter than Jefferson.


Plum isn't better than Jefferson at anything by the moment, don't think it's very close. Just compare their rookie seasons.


She's better at being able to get on the court. The best ability is availability.


Fair point, but I'd wait to see what Jefferson's injury actually is. She could be simply taking the winter off to rest. I think most of this was her continuously being put out there to play when she clearly was not 100%. It's not like she's missed both of her WNBA seasons due to injuries. So I wouldn't call her "unplayable." Still, I agree with those that say the team should be built around McBride & Jefferson regardless. I'd be willing to say the top half of the draft will be better players than Plum right off the bat and even some long term. So why not try for an additional pick?

Just say JSpoon's scenario plays out, a combo of Wilson, Williams, DeShields, Mitchell, Billings, Brown etc. would put them in a way better position longterm anyway.


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PostPosted: 09/05/17 3:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

People are making it sound like Jefferson is fragile or injury prone. In four years at UConn, she missed one game. That's 155 played out of 156. At one point, she started 90 straight games. Add in her rookie season with SAS and that's 189 games played out of 190. Then, Moriah played 40 out of 44 games for Galatasaray. I don't know how many of those four games were for injury versus the team resting her. The point is Jefferson was durable until recently. And we know Moriah was playing injured this season because the team told us that was the case. So, as others have mentioned, the issue here is letting or encouraging an athlete to play while she is injured. Until we know for sure, I don't see why people should assume that Jefferson has a long-lasting or chronic problem.



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 5:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
People are making it sound like Jefferson is fragile or injury prone. In four years at UConn, she missed one game. That's 155 played out of 156. At one point, she started 90 straight games.


How many games did Stiles miss in her college career?



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root_thing



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 5:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Silky Johnson wrote:
root_thing wrote:
People are making it sound like Jefferson is fragile or injury prone. In four years at UConn, she missed one game. That's 155 played out of 156. At one point, she started 90 straight games.


How many games did Stiles miss in her college career?


Nice try, but you're talking about Jackie Stiles after we already know the facts. We don't know the exact nature of Jefferson's injury. What is the basis for your extremely negative speculation? If anything, Moriah's history indicates that she deserves the benefit of a doubt. If you wanted to speculate about players with multiple injuries in their past like Alexis Jones, Chelsea Gray or in an extreme example, Jacki Gemelos, then you would be justified. But I don't see the rationale for jumping to conclusions about Jefferson.



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 6:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
Silky Johnson wrote:
root_thing wrote:
People are making it sound like Jefferson is fragile or injury prone. In four years at UConn, she missed one game. That's 155 played out of 156. At one point, she started 90 straight games.


How many games did Stiles miss in her college career?


Nice try, but you're talking about Jackie Stiles after we already know the facts. We don't know the exact nature of Jefferson's injury. What is the basis for your extremely negative speculation? If anything, Moriah's history indicates that she deserves the benefit of a doubt. If you wanted to speculate about players with multiple injuries in their past like Alexis Jones, Chelsea Gray or in an extreme example, Jacki Gemelos, then you would be justified. But I don't see the rationale for jumping to conclusions about Jefferson.


Alright, then. You go ahead and maintain that Positive Mental Attitude, and let me know how it plays out.

FWIW, Chiney Ogwumike also only missed one game in her college career: she played 145 out of a possible 146 games at Stanford, including the last 110 in a row, at least. Since getting drafted into the pros, she's played 64 out of a possible 136 games. The point is that nobody is injury prone... until they are.



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 6:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hey root_thing - perhaps you should look at this book by Bob Knight.

https://www.amazon.com/Power-Negative-Thinking-Unconventional-Achieving/dp/054402771X

Quote:
Norman Vincent Peale’s The Power of Positive Thinking, a classic bestseller, has inspired an optimistic perspective for millions of Americans. Now, in an inspirational and entertaining rebuttal, the legendary basketball coach Bob Knight explains why “negative thinking” will actually produce more positive results, in sports and in daily life.


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PostPosted: 09/05/17 6:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'm curious how someone who was skeptical of Jefferson as a WNBA prospect because of her size would be surprised if people are now wary of her nagging injury issues. She's not in the AAC anymore.

http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=92325&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=125

That being said, I wouldn't panic and overreact without giving her a chance to recoup.



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 7:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Maybe I'm missing something. Where is the information about her injury(s)? Do we know of anything serious? As far as I can see, you all are speculating and assuming based on no information other than that Moriah missed some games and she's decided to sit out the winter to rest and recover. That allows you to jump to the conclusion that she has some kind of unrepairable or degenerative injury that's going to threaten her career? My point is that I haven's seen anything that would allow you to draw that conclusion. If I missed something, then point it out to me. Otherwise, please explain why you're being more negative about a 23-year-old facing her first bout with injury than you are about players who have actually undergone surgeries? There have been all kinds of players in this league who blew out their ACL's. Did you start speculating about the end of their careers right away?

The comparison to Stiles is absurd. I never said that anyone who previously had a healthy career couldn't get injured. My point is that within the context of speculation and assumption -- based on very little knowledge as far as I know -- why are you drawing such dire conclusions? If you're going to speculate, it should be based on some kind of history or precedent. In this case, the history indicates that Jefferson has been durable. If you have evidence of a career threatening injury, then present it. I mentioned Alexis Jones, Chelsea Gray, and Jacki Gemelos -- all of whom have had multiple surgeries. Guess what? They're all still playing, and Gray is a coveted all-star. Have we had any verification that Jefferson has suffered an injury as serious as any incurred by the players I mentioned?



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 8:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
The comparison to Stiles is absurd. I never said that anyone who previously had a healthy career couldn't get injured. My point is that within the context of speculation and assumption -- based on very little knowledge as far as I know -- why are you drawing such dire conclusions? If you're going to speculate, it should be based on some kind of history or precedent. In this case, the history indicates that Jefferson has been durable


Your logic is not internally consistent here. If you stipulate the part in red to be true, then that's all the 'precedent' you need. History indicated that Ogwumike was durable, too... until she wasn't.

Quote:
If you have evidence of a career threatening injury, then present it. I mentioned Alexis Jones, Chelsea Gray, and Jacki Gemelos -- all of whom have had multiple surgeries. Guess what? They're all still playing, and Gray is a coveted all-star. Have we had any verification that Jefferson has suffered an injury as serious as any incurred by the players I mentioned?


You appear to want to have your cake and eat it, too, on this:

root_thing: It's unfair for you to say that Jefferson won't recover from injury, based on what happened to Stiles!

Also root_thing: Look at how Jones and Gray came back from injuries! That shows that Jefferson can, too!

Neither of those things 'shows' us anything, except that no two people have the same ability to recover from injuries. Maybe Moriah Jefferson will become the league's Iron Woman, and break the record for games played. Or maybe her knee will disintegrate, and she'll be out of the league in two years. It's no less unreasonable to compare her to Stiles than it is to compare her to Gray and Jones. Nobody knows whether or not she has the mental fortitude to bounce back from injury that those women have. Even if she does, nobody knows if she has the actual physical ability to bounce back from injury that those women have... because she's never been seriously injured before.

Feel free to continue to look at the glass half-full all you like; I don't have any such obligation.



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PostPosted: 09/05/17 8:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Silky Johnson wrote:
root_thing wrote:
The comparison to Stiles is absurd. I never said that anyone who previously had a healthy career couldn't get injured. My point is that within the context of speculation and assumption -- based on very little knowledge as far as I know -- why are you drawing such dire conclusions? If you're going to speculate, it should be based on some kind of history or precedent. In this case, the history indicates that Jefferson has been durable


Your logic is not internally consistent here. If you stipulate the part in red to be true, then that's all the 'precedent' you need. History indicated that Ogwumike was durable, too... until she wasn't.

Quote:
If you have evidence of a career threatening injury, then present it. I mentioned Alexis Jones, Chelsea Gray, and Jacki Gemelos -- all of whom have had multiple surgeries. Guess what? They're all still playing, and Gray is a coveted all-star. Have we had any verification that Jefferson has suffered an injury as serious as any incurred by the players I mentioned?


You appear to want to have your cake and eat it, too, on this:

root_thing: It's unfair for you to say that Jefferson won't recover from injury, based on what happened to Stiles!

Also root_thing: Look at how Jones and Gray came back from injuries! That shows that Jefferson can, too!

Neither of those things 'shows' us anything, except that no two people have the same ability to recover from injuries. Maybe Moriah Jefferson will become the league's Iron Woman, and break the record for games played. Or maybe her knee will disintegrate, and she'll be out of the league in two years. It's no less unreasonable to compare her to Stiles than it is to compare her to Gray and Jones. Nobody knows whether or not she has the mental fortitude to bounce back from injury that those women have. Even if she does, nobody knows if she has the actual physical ability to bounce back from injury that those women have... because she's never been seriously injured before.

Feel free to continue to look at the glass half-full all you like; I don't have any such obligation.


The fact you're trying to write Jefferson off is laughable. She's had ONE injury, and nobody even knows the extent of it. Root thing is saying what's the point of assuming she's made of glass, when this is her first injury that's caused her to miss time. It's really silly quite honestly.


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PostPosted: 09/05/17 8:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

TotalCardinalMove wrote:
The fact you're trying to write Jefferson off is laughable.

This is the opposite of a fact. You are conflating "not giving benefit of the doubt" with "writing off."


Quote:
Root thing is saying what's the point of assuming she's made of glass, when this is her first injury that's caused her to miss time.

And I'm saying that you don't know what someone's ability to recover from injury is, until they get injured. It doesn't make any more sense to say "Well, she's never been injured, so she'll bounce back from this injury just fine" than it does to say the opposite. She might, and she might not.



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PostPosted: 09/06/17 9:09 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

What's interesting to me is the complete lack of information about Jefferson's injury -- which puts me slightly on the negative side. The reason is that if she had a relatively minor injury, one that would heal quickly and completely, it would make sense for her and her agent to let everyone know that so her value remains high. The fact that they haven't gives me pause, though that's hardly definitive.

The other thing about Jefferson is that she's not a big person, and smaller players give the impression of being more injury-prone. I've never seen a study on that, so who knows, but when you see the smallest player on the court, it's human nature to worry more about her getting hurt than the biggest.



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PostPosted: 09/06/17 4:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Silky Johnson wrote:
root_thing wrote:
The comparison to Stiles is absurd. I never said that anyone who previously had a healthy career couldn't get injured. My point is that within the context of speculation and assumption -- based on very little knowledge as far as I know -- why are you drawing such dire conclusions? If you're going to speculate, it should be based on some kind of history or precedent. In this case, the history indicates that Jefferson has been durable


Your logic is not internally consistent here. If you stipulate the part in red to be true, then that's all the 'precedent' you need. History indicated that Ogwumike was durable, too... until she wasn't.

Quote:
If you have evidence of a career threatening injury, then present it. I mentioned Alexis Jones, Chelsea Gray, and Jacki Gemelos -- all of whom have had multiple surgeries. Guess what? They're all still playing, and Gray is a coveted all-star. Have we had any verification that Jefferson has suffered an injury as serious as any incurred by the players I mentioned?


You appear to want to have your cake and eat it, too, on this:

root_thing: It's unfair for you to say that Jefferson won't recover from injury, based on what happened to Stiles!

Also root_thing: Look at how Jones and Gray came back from injuries! That shows that Jefferson can, too!

Neither of those things 'shows' us anything, except that no two people have the same ability to recover from injuries. Maybe Moriah Jefferson will become the league's Iron Woman, and break the record for games played. Or maybe her knee will disintegrate, and she'll be out of the league in two years. It's no less unreasonable to compare her to Stiles than it is to compare her to Gray and Jones. Nobody knows whether or not she has the mental fortitude to bounce back from injury that those women have. Even if she does, nobody knows if she has the actual physical ability to bounce back from injury that those women have... because she's never been seriously injured before.

Feel free to continue to look at the glass half-full all you like; I don't have any such obligation.


I don't have the time or energy to respond to you line by line. Originally, I was trying to make a simple point: in the face of very little information, our only frame of reference is Jefferson's past health history. You've tried to make that seem illogical. In fact, history and past behavior are what people normally use to project future results. That's true whether we're talking about finance, science, human behavior -- just about any subject.

The reason I originally posted is because people were suggesting Jefferson had some kind of serious problem without offering any facts. Moriah missed some games because of knee pain but played through it. Then she suffered a concussion. Finally, she had to sit out the rest of the season. Someone suggested that there might be another injury too. As far as I know, none of this is serious enough to have necessitated surgery. If I'm missing information, someone please tell me. Now, Jefferson has chosen to not go overseas for the winter. Well, that's not tremendously unusual. Lot's of players take off the winter to rest, heal from injury or just to spend time with family. So, where's the proof of a dire situation? As far as I can see, people are speculating off no information and contrary to the player's health history. You're filling the knowledge void with conjecture and personal bias. If that's what you want to do, then fine. But to me, Jefferson's situation looks less serious than many other cases of injury -- especially those involving surgery -- and I yet you don't see people speculating about those injuries being career ending. So explain to me why Jefferson is different?



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PostPosted: 09/06/17 4:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

We are used to seeing injuries that require surgery. Then we have some idea of what the player is dealing with. Without surgery it's all a big guessing game. It does seem that often an injury which isn't 'fixed' with surgery now becomes an ongoing problem later on. If it actually can fix itself with rest, that's great, but it's not the most common result.



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PostPosted: 09/06/17 5:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

root_thing wrote:
I don't have the time or energy to respond to you line by line. Originally, I was trying to make a simple point: in the face of very little information, our only frame of reference is Jefferson's past health history. You've tried to make that seem illogical. In fact, history and past behavior are what people normally use to project future results.

:: sighs ::

That's the point. There is no past behavior when it comes to this, as it pertains to Moriah Jefferson. Trying to project Chelsea Gray or Alexis Jones or Jacki Gemelos' ability to recuperate from injury onto Jefferson makes exactly the same amount of sense as projecting Jackie Stiles' ability to recuperate from injury onto Jefferson. Why? Because they aren't her, and she isn't them. You keep accusing me of speculation and conjecture, while refusing to acknowledge that you're doing the same damned thing. Your claim that Jefferson's injury is "less serious" (Than what, BTW?) is also speculation; nobody has reported on the true extent of Jefferson's injury. You seem quite willing to fill in the blanks with what you want to believe to be true, while having the audacity to accuse me of personal bias.

I don't have any information that the injury is serious? Well, you don't have any information that it isn't, so now what? And again, the point is that the severity of an injury isn't a "one size fits all" proposition. The exact same injury that costs Player A a season might cost Player B their career. How you gonna tell me that it's unfair to say that what happened to Stiles could happen to Jefferson, and then turn right around and try to extrapolate Jefferson's future from what happened to Alexis Jones? No two players have the same ability to recuperate from injury, and no two players have the same ability to play through pain. Hell, some people make their injuries worse because they have a greater ability to play through pain, and they ignore their bodies trying to tell them how hurt they are, and don't get proper treatment until it's way too late. Like, oh... I don't know, maybe playing through knee pain, until a worse knee injury happens?

We don't have the ability to answer these questions about Moriah Jefferson, in either the positive or the negative, because she's never been injured like this before. I'm not going to stop you from being as optimistic as you want to, but I'm not going to have you #onhere acting like the "bias" is only coming from one side.



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PostPosted: 09/06/17 8:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

This is being well and eloquently argued, and definitively clarifies whether . . . (what's the topic?) . . . Kelsey Plum is a "bust or too early".
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PostPosted: 09/06/17 9:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
This is being well and eloquently argued, and definitively clarifies whether . . . (what's the topic?) . . . Kelsey Plum is a "bust or too early".


LOL, touché.



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