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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/13/17 12:57 pm    ::: WNBA odds Reply Reply with quote

Here are the odds for opening day:

New York 12.5 San Antonio Total 153.5
Los Angeles 4.5 Seattle 153.5
Connecticut 5.5 Atlanta 158.5

The odds have jumped around for day one based on who is/isn't playing. The Liberty were as low as a 6.5 favorite, but without any starting guards (Jefferson has the flu and is doubtful, while Plum is out with an ankle and McBride is still in Turkey) for the Stars the line is up to 12.5. There has also been a strong move on Seattle due to Parker, Lavendar and Carson being out for LA. But the biggest move has been the Sparks' total, which has moved straight up from 145.5, presumably because without those players LA might be mote willing to run.

My top pick is San Antonio under 153.5, as I believe that without Plum or Jefferson the pace of play will be slower. Hopefully Laimbeer will be happy to just win and not put on a show for the Garden fans. I also like LA a little bit, but just because I am not sure whether Stewart and Bird will be 100%. It is difficult to get good information about injury status. I suspect they will both be playing, but perhaps they will be saved somewhat for their home opener tomorrow.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 05/13/17 1:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

New York 12.5 San Antonio Total 153.5
Los Angeles 4.5 Seattle 153.5
Connecticut 5.5 Atlanta 158.5 U



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/13/17 3:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The news of Stewart and Bird being out moved the line from 4.5 to 7.5 while the total dropped from 153.5 to 152.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 05/13/17 8:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
New York 12.5 San Antonio Total 153.5
Los Angeles 4.5 Seattle 153.5
Connecticut 5.5 Atlanta 158.5 U


2-1



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/14/17 8:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 14:

Washington 15.5 San Antonio 153.5
Seattle 4 Indiana 160
Minnesota 14 Chicago 161.5
Phoenix 8.5 Dallas 165.5

The imbalance in the league is highlighted with two spreads of 14 and 15.5. Nothing looks great today but I will take Seattle -4 on the hunch that Stewart and Bird will be playing in the home opener. I also like the Washington game over 153.5 because I think the Mystics will want to put on a show for the new look, Delle Donne team. And for a real flyer I'll take Phoenix under because I think the run-and-gun Mercury may finally decide to play more defense this season.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/17/17 2:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Starting off the season at 5-0 is always a good feeling, but there are several teams for whom I have major questions.

Tonight's line:

Phoenix 3 Indiana 155

Phoenix was awful in its first game. They played much slower, and after running out to a 16-5 lead they were outscored 63-42 the rest of the way by a bunch of rookies. Indeed, the one star for Dallas looked more like the rest of the Mercury than a new look Wing. Having said this I still believe that the Mercury are not that bad. Taurasi is not only coming off her wedding, but also a new contract.. Griner has to be embarrassed that only 2 rebounds and that the team did not have a single offensive rebound. It would be easy to give up on this team, but I think they will rebound (literally and figuratively) to beat the Pacers, who looked only fair against Seattle. Nothing on the total; this line would have been 10 points higher last year so I think after one game the odds makers have already removed the value.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/18/17 12:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for 5/18:

Minnesota 4.5 New York 154.5

The New York Liberty become the first home underdog of the season. While I believe that the Lynx are the best team in the league the line pushes me to the Liberty. It is not a strong play, but it is just good enough, particularly when it is the only game today.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 05/18/17 5:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for 5/18:

Minnesota 4.5 New York 154.5


Under



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 4:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 19:

Phoenix 9.5 @San Antonio 150.5
Atlanta 1.5 @ Chicago 154.5
Los Angeles 5.5 Washington 164.5

Coming off my first loss of the year, my clear choice today is Los Angeles under 164.5. I don't see either of these teams as uniformly high scoring, so a total this high makes me think under. I went back to last season and these two teams played high scoring games as did LA and Chicago (EDD's team). Sometimes this would make me hesitate, but in this case it actually makes me feel more comfortable because it clarifies why the line is so high. It would be nice to know for sure whether Candace Parker is playing, but either way I like the under.

The Phoenix line opened at 4.5, and I thought I would play the Mercury again. But it seems everybody else agreed and the line move is overdone. I will actually take the Stars at home playing their first game with Kelsey Plum. Even if Phoenix runs out to a lead, I believe that San Antonio will keep fighting and should be able to keep the game in single digits.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 4:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for 5/18:

Minnesota 4.5 New York 154.5


Under


An interesting note. The bettors were all over the over on this game, moving the line up to 160.5 (the line was as high as 161). Had I been working with the final line I would have also like the under, but it seems the bettors knew what they were doing .


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 4:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 20:

Indiana 4.5 Connecticut 160
Minnesota 8.5 @Dallas 164.5

I like Indiana -4.5 to win their home opener. Connecticut looked bad against Atlanta and even though Indiana wasn't much better against Seattle, I like them at home. I need to look a bit closer at the totals before I make a choice.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 6:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for 5/18:

Minnesota 4.5 New York 154.5


Under


0-1, 2-2



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 6:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 19:

Phoenix 9.5 @San Antonio 150.5
Atlanta 1.5 @ Chicago 154.5
Los Angeles 5.5 Washington 164.5

Coming off my first loss of the year, my clear choice today is Los Angeles under 164.5. I don't see either of these teams as uniformly high scoring, so a total this high makes me think under. I went back to last season and these two teams played high scoring games as did LA and Chicago (EDD's team). Sometimes this would make me hesitate, but in this case it actually makes me feel more comfortable because it clarifies why the line is so high. It would be nice to know for sure whether Candace Parker is playing, but either way I like the under.

The Phoenix line opened at 4.5, and I thought I would play the Mercury again. But it seems everybody else agreed and the line move is overdone. I will actually take the Stars at home playing their first game with Kelsey Plum. Even if Phoenix runs out to a lead, I believe that San Antonio will keep fighting and should be able to keep the game in single digits.



Apparently MJ and KP will not play tonight.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 9:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 19:

Phoenix 9.5 @San Antonio 150.5
Atlanta 1.5 @ Chicago 154.5
Los Angeles 5.5 Washington 164.5

Coming off my first loss of the year, my clear choice today is Los Angeles under 164.5. I don't see either of these teams as uniformly high scoring, so a total this high makes me think under. I went back to last season and these two teams played high scoring games as did LA and Chicago (EDD's team). Sometimes this would make me hesitate, but in this case it actually makes me feel more comfortable because it clarifies why the line is so high. It would be nice to know for sure whether Candace Parker is playing, but either way I like the under.

The Phoenix line opened at 4.5, and I thought I would play the Mercury again. But it seems everybody else agreed and the line move is overdone. I will actually take the Stars at home playing their first game with Kelsey Plum. Even if Phoenix runs out to a lead, I believe that San Antonio will keep fighting and should be able to keep the game in single digits.



Apparently MJ and KP will not play tonight.


I had known that Jefferson was out, but I had heard that Plum would be able to play. So much for my source, but the game went as expected, with Phoenix running out to a lead but losing interest and being satisfied with a 6 point win.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/20/17 10:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 21:

Atlanta 7.5 Chicago 161.5
Seattle 3 Washington 161.5

I like Washington plus the points against Seattle.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/23/17 5:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

After running out to a 6-0 record this season I suffered some setbacks and am now just 7-4. I picked up on Phoenix being completely different this year, going from the highest scoring team the past several years to now being arguably the lowest (total points). On the other hand Washington's west coast trip was quite disappointing and makes me have to rethink the Mystics going forward.

Odds for tonight:

Minnesota 12.5 Connecticut 163.5
New York 1 @Phoenix 149.5

Diana Taurasi is suspended so the Liberty are actually favored at Phoenix. But it isn't like Taurasi has been playing well, shooting just 21% from the floor and having 7 TO vs. just 2 assists. I'll take the Mercury.

Scoring is up this season but the Lynx game total seems too high. I will take the under.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/24/17 2:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Washington 2.5 @Chicago 164

I have lost twice on the Mystics on this road trip, but I will stay with them for one more game. Chicago should be up for the game against the returning EDD, but the Mystics are just too talented.

No line yet on the LA - Indiana game.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 05/24/17 7:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Washington 2.5 @Chicago 164 U



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/24/17 2:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Los Angeles 6.5 Indiana 157

The Sparks have historically been a bad road team but last year they were 12-5 and won every road game by at least five points. I already have a win today so I will pass on this game.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 05/24/17 6:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Washington 2.5 @Chicago 164 U


1-0, 3-2



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