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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/13/17 12:57 pm    ::: WNBA odds Reply Reply with quote

Here are the odds for opening day:

New York 12.5 San Antonio Total 153.5
Los Angeles 4.5 Seattle 153.5
Connecticut 5.5 Atlanta 158.5

The odds have jumped around for day one based on who is/isn't playing. The Liberty were as low as a 6.5 favorite, but without any starting guards (Jefferson has the flu and is doubtful, while Plum is out with an ankle and McBride is still in Turkey) for the Stars the line is up to 12.5. There has also been a strong move on Seattle due to Parker, Lavendar and Carson being out for LA. But the biggest move has been the Sparks' total, which has moved straight up from 145.5, presumably because without those players LA might be mote willing to run.

My top pick is San Antonio under 153.5, as I believe that without Plum or Jefferson the pace of play will be slower. Hopefully Laimbeer will be happy to just win and not put on a show for the Garden fans. I also like LA a little bit, but just because I am not sure whether Stewart and Bird will be 100%. It is difficult to get good information about injury status. I suspect they will both be playing, but perhaps they will be saved somewhat for their home opener tomorrow.


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PostPosted: 05/13/17 1:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

New York 12.5 San Antonio Total 153.5
Los Angeles 4.5 Seattle 153.5
Connecticut 5.5 Atlanta 158.5 U



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PostPosted: 05/13/17 3:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The news of Stewart and Bird being out moved the line from 4.5 to 7.5 while the total dropped from 153.5 to 152.


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PostPosted: 05/13/17 8:43 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
New York 12.5 San Antonio Total 153.5
Los Angeles 4.5 Seattle 153.5
Connecticut 5.5 Atlanta 158.5 U


2-1



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PostPosted: 05/14/17 8:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 14:

Washington 15.5 San Antonio 153.5
Seattle 4 Indiana 160
Minnesota 14 Chicago 161.5
Phoenix 8.5 Dallas 165.5

The imbalance in the league is highlighted with two spreads of 14 and 15.5. Nothing looks great today but I will take Seattle -4 on the hunch that Stewart and Bird will be playing in the home opener. I also like the Washington game over 153.5 because I think the Mystics will want to put on a show for the new look, Delle Donne team. And for a real flyer I'll take Phoenix under because I think the run-and-gun Mercury may finally decide to play more defense this season.


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PostPosted: 05/17/17 2:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Starting off the season at 5-0 is always a good feeling, but there are several teams for whom I have major questions.

Tonight's line:

Phoenix 3 Indiana 155

Phoenix was awful in its first game. They played much slower, and after running out to a 16-5 lead they were outscored 63-42 the rest of the way by a bunch of rookies. Indeed, the one star for Dallas looked more like the rest of the Mercury than a new look Wing. Having said this I still believe that the Mercury are not that bad. Taurasi is not only coming off her wedding, but also a new contract.. Griner has to be embarrassed that only 2 rebounds and that the team did not have a single offensive rebound. It would be easy to give up on this team, but I think they will rebound (literally and figuratively) to beat the Pacers, who looked only fair against Seattle. Nothing on the total; this line would have been 10 points higher last year so I think after one game the odds makers have already removed the value.


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PostPosted: 05/18/17 12:47 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for 5/18:

Minnesota 4.5 New York 154.5

The New York Liberty become the first home underdog of the season. While I believe that the Lynx are the best team in the league the line pushes me to the Liberty. It is not a strong play, but it is just good enough, particularly when it is the only game today.


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PostPosted: 05/18/17 5:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for 5/18:

Minnesota 4.5 New York 154.5


Under



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 4:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 19:

Phoenix 9.5 @San Antonio 150.5
Atlanta 1.5 @ Chicago 154.5
Los Angeles 5.5 Washington 164.5

Coming off my first loss of the year, my clear choice today is Los Angeles under 164.5. I don't see either of these teams as uniformly high scoring, so a total this high makes me think under. I went back to last season and these two teams played high scoring games as did LA and Chicago (EDD's team). Sometimes this would make me hesitate, but in this case it actually makes me feel more comfortable because it clarifies why the line is so high. It would be nice to know for sure whether Candace Parker is playing, but either way I like the under.

The Phoenix line opened at 4.5, and I thought I would play the Mercury again. But it seems everybody else agreed and the line move is overdone. I will actually take the Stars at home playing their first game with Kelsey Plum. Even if Phoenix runs out to a lead, I believe that San Antonio will keep fighting and should be able to keep the game in single digits.


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PostPosted: 05/19/17 4:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for 5/18:

Minnesota 4.5 New York 154.5


Under


An interesting note. The bettors were all over the over on this game, moving the line up to 160.5 (the line was as high as 161). Had I been working with the final line I would have also like the under, but it seems the bettors knew what they were doing .


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PostPosted: 05/19/17 4:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 20:

Indiana 4.5 Connecticut 160
Minnesota 8.5 @Dallas 164.5

I like Indiana -4.5 to win their home opener. Connecticut looked bad against Atlanta and even though Indiana wasn't much better against Seattle, I like them at home. I need to look a bit closer at the totals before I make a choice.


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PostPosted: 05/19/17 6:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for 5/18:

Minnesota 4.5 New York 154.5


Under


0-1, 2-2



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 6:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 19:

Phoenix 9.5 @San Antonio 150.5
Atlanta 1.5 @ Chicago 154.5
Los Angeles 5.5 Washington 164.5

Coming off my first loss of the year, my clear choice today is Los Angeles under 164.5. I don't see either of these teams as uniformly high scoring, so a total this high makes me think under. I went back to last season and these two teams played high scoring games as did LA and Chicago (EDD's team). Sometimes this would make me hesitate, but in this case it actually makes me feel more comfortable because it clarifies why the line is so high. It would be nice to know for sure whether Candace Parker is playing, but either way I like the under.

The Phoenix line opened at 4.5, and I thought I would play the Mercury again. But it seems everybody else agreed and the line move is overdone. I will actually take the Stars at home playing their first game with Kelsey Plum. Even if Phoenix runs out to a lead, I believe that San Antonio will keep fighting and should be able to keep the game in single digits.



Apparently MJ and KP will not play tonight.



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PostPosted: 05/19/17 9:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 19:

Phoenix 9.5 @San Antonio 150.5
Atlanta 1.5 @ Chicago 154.5
Los Angeles 5.5 Washington 164.5

Coming off my first loss of the year, my clear choice today is Los Angeles under 164.5. I don't see either of these teams as uniformly high scoring, so a total this high makes me think under. I went back to last season and these two teams played high scoring games as did LA and Chicago (EDD's team). Sometimes this would make me hesitate, but in this case it actually makes me feel more comfortable because it clarifies why the line is so high. It would be nice to know for sure whether Candace Parker is playing, but either way I like the under.

The Phoenix line opened at 4.5, and I thought I would play the Mercury again. But it seems everybody else agreed and the line move is overdone. I will actually take the Stars at home playing their first game with Kelsey Plum. Even if Phoenix runs out to a lead, I believe that San Antonio will keep fighting and should be able to keep the game in single digits.



Apparently MJ and KP will not play tonight.


I had known that Jefferson was out, but I had heard that Plum would be able to play. So much for my source, but the game went as expected, with Phoenix running out to a lead but losing interest and being satisfied with a 6 point win.


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PostPosted: 05/20/17 10:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 21:

Atlanta 7.5 Chicago 161.5
Seattle 3 Washington 161.5

I like Washington plus the points against Seattle.


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PostPosted: 05/23/17 5:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

After running out to a 6-0 record this season I suffered some setbacks and am now just 7-4. I picked up on Phoenix being completely different this year, going from the highest scoring team the past several years to now being arguably the lowest (total points). On the other hand Washington's west coast trip was quite disappointing and makes me have to rethink the Mystics going forward.

Odds for tonight:

Minnesota 12.5 Connecticut 163.5
New York 1 @Phoenix 149.5

Diana Taurasi is suspended so the Liberty are actually favored at Phoenix. But it isn't like Taurasi has been playing well, shooting just 21% from the floor and having 7 TO vs. just 2 assists. I'll take the Mercury.

Scoring is up this season but the Lynx game total seems too high. I will take the under.


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PostPosted: 05/24/17 2:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Washington 2.5 @Chicago 164

I have lost twice on the Mystics on this road trip, but I will stay with them for one more game. Chicago should be up for the game against the returning EDD, but the Mystics are just too talented.

No line yet on the LA - Indiana game.


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PostPosted: 05/24/17 7:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Washington 2.5 @Chicago 164 U



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PostPosted: 05/24/17 2:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Los Angeles 6.5 Indiana 157

The Sparks have historically been a bad road team but last year they were 12-5 and won every road game by at least five points. I already have a win today so I will pass on this game.


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PostPosted: 05/24/17 6:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Washington 2.5 @Chicago 164 U


1-0, 3-2



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PostPosted: 05/25/17 1:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 25:

Dallas 4 @San Antonio 157.5

No play for now until I know the status of Plum and Jefferson. I lean toward San Antonio and the over but I won't play if I don't know their status.


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PostPosted: 05/26/17 10:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 26:

Minnesota 6.5 @Connecticut 158
Washington 8.5 Chicago 161.5
Seattle 4 New York 155.5

Washington hosts Chicago in the back end of a home-and-home series. The talent gap is wide enough that I will stay with the Mystics and lay the points. Seattle has been the most improved team so far this year. New York without Boyd is a bit of a question mark. They certainly have depth at guard, but their play is inconsistent. I'll take the Storm at home.


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PostPosted: 05/26/17 11:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Two lucky wins push my record to 11-5. It seems the odds makers aren't posting odds the night before as has been past practice. I hope I will be able to post the odds tomorrow morning.


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PostPosted: 05/27/17 12:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 27:

Los Angeles 7 @Atlanta 163.5
Phoenix 7 Dallas 156

Los Angeles isn't the same team on the road as they are at home. I suspect this will be a run and gun affair and that Atlanta will be able to stay within the spread. I'll take Atlanta and the over.

Phoenix has gone under the total each of its first four games. This total is down 9.5 points from when they played each other in their opening game. The adjustment is just enough to keep me from playing the under, so I will pass on this game.


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PostPosted: 05/27/17 5:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 27:

Los Angeles 7 @Atlanta 163.5 O
Phoenix 7 Dallas 156




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PostPosted: 05/27/17 6:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 27:

Los Angeles 7 @Atlanta 163.5 O
Phoenix 7 Dallas 156



it's halftime..... ain't winning this one....0-1, 3-3



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PostPosted: 05/27/17 7:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 27:

Los Angeles 7 @Atlanta 163.5 O
Phoenix 7 Dallas 156



it's halftime..... ain't winning this one....0-1, 3-3


We needed overtime, but it was not to be. It is hard to recover from a 23 point second quarter.


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PostPosted: 05/28/17 8:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 27:

Los Angeles 7 @Atlanta 163.5 O
Phoenix 7 Dallas 156



it's halftime..... ain't winning this one....0-1, 3-3


We needed overtime, but it was not to be. It is hard to recover from a 23 point second quarter.



Sparks nearly pulled it off. When the Gray FT carom was in the air, I felt my chances were actually better than 50-50 for that split second. It would have been a miraculous win. But, it goes the other way more often. I recall a college game this past winter in which it took 3OTs to beat my under. Evil or Very Mad



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PostPosted: 05/28/17 10:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 28:

Chicago 2 Connecticut 160,5
Seattle 6 Indiana 153.5
Minnesota 14.5 San Antonio 158

Connecticut and San Antonio are the two teams without a win. I thought I would be on the Sun, but I expected to get 4. I think they will get their first win, but I can't take them at such a short line. That leaves me with the Stars who are getting what should be their eventual starting backcourt incorporated. I'll take the Stars to stay inside the hefty line.

Strange scheduling as Indiana travels to the Pacific Northwest for the second time in May. I have to wonder if this was originally scheduled as a home game but then switched because of the Indianapolis 500. I am impressed with the Storm and will lay the points..


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PostPosted: 05/28/17 7:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 28:

Chicago 2 Connecticut 160,5
Seattle 6 Indiana 153.5
Minnesota 14.5 San Antonio 158

Connecticut and San Antonio are the two teams without a win. I thought I would be on the Sun, but I expected to get 4. I think they will get their first win, but I can't take them at such a short line. That leaves me with the Stars who are getting what should be their eventual starting backcourt incorporated. I'll take the Stars to stay inside the hefty line.

Strange scheduling as Indiana travels to the Pacific Northwest for the second time in May. I have to wonder if this was originally scheduled as a home game but then switched because of the Indianapolis 500. I am impressed with the Storm and will lay the points..

LMAO Stars beat the line with the unsportsmanlike last shot after the Lynx let up.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 05/28/17 9:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 28:

Chicago 2 Connecticut 160,5
Seattle 6 Indiana 153.5
Minnesota 14.5 San Antonio 158

Connecticut and San Antonio are the two teams without a win. I thought I would be on the Sun, but I expected to get 4. I think they will get their first win, but I can't take them at such a short line. That leaves me with the Stars who are getting what should be their eventual starting backcourt incorporated. I'll take the Stars to stay inside the hefty line.

Strange scheduling as Indiana travels to the Pacific Northwest for the second time in May. I have to wonder if this was originally scheduled as a home game but then switched because of the Indianapolis 500. I am impressed with the Storm and will lay the points..

LMAO Stars beat the line with the unsportsmanlike last shot after the Lynx let up.


I don't see anything unsportsmanlike about the trailing team trying to score at the end of the game, but I certainly count myself very fortunate that after falling behind by 25 early in the fourth, the Stars kept playing and I wound up winning by the hook. Compare their effort to the Wings against Phoenix yesterday where they turned a 10 point half time deficit into a 42 point blowout loss. Several games a year turn on whether teams try the full 40 minutes, and whether teams are satisfied with winning or like to win big, particularly with double-digit spreads..

That pushes my record to 14-6. I'd gladly take 70% for the season, but I know I had three lucky wins this week, and that type of thing usually reverses over time.


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PostPosted: 05/28/17 9:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
justintyme wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 28:

Chicago 2 Connecticut 160,5
Seattle 6 Indiana 153.5
Minnesota 14.5 San Antonio 158

Connecticut and San Antonio are the two teams without a win. I thought I would be on the Sun, but I expected to get 4. I think they will get their first win, but I can't take them at such a short line. That leaves me with the Stars who are getting what should be their eventual starting backcourt incorporated. I'll take the Stars to stay inside the hefty line.

Strange scheduling as Indiana travels to the Pacific Northwest for the second time in May. I have to wonder if this was originally scheduled as a home game but then switched because of the Indianapolis 500. I am impressed with the Storm and will lay the points..

LMAO Stars beat the line with the unsportsmanlike last shot after the Lynx let up.


I don't see anything unsportsmanlike about the trailing team trying to score at the end of the game,

Yeah, it wasn't near as terrible as it is when the leading team does it. It was just kind of funny, since it looked like they were going to dribble it out and then when the Lynx backed off they suddenly passed to the open player for the shot at the buzzer.

Not really a big deal, only really matters for the betters due to the line.



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PostPosted: 05/29/17 11:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 30:

Los Angeles 3.5 @ New York 157.5
Dallas 3.5 Indiana 167

Coming off an abysmal effort against Phoenix, I expect the Wings to bounce back, so I will take Dallas -3.5. I looked hard at the Liberty, but for some reason I think the Sparks will actually play a good game on the road, so I will pass.


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PostPosted: 05/30/17 6:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 30:

Los Angeles 3.5 @ New York 157.5
Dallas 3.5 Indiana 167

Coming off an abysmal effort against Phoenix, I expect the Wings to bounce back, so I will take Dallas -3.5. I looked hard at the Liberty, but for some reason I think the Sparks will actually play a good game on the road, so I will pass.


LA v NY Under



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PostPosted: 05/30/17 6:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 30:

Los Angeles 3.5 @ New York 157.5
Dallas 3.5 Indiana 167

Coming off an abysmal effort against Phoenix, I expect the Wings to bounce back, so I will take Dallas -3.5. I looked hard at the Liberty, but for some reason I think the Sparks will actually play a good game on the road, so I will pass.


LA v NY Under


Shit. In my rush to beat the tip (which I admit I didn't), I read the wrong number and thought I had the 167.

Oh well, I stand by my bet. Confused



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PostPosted: 05/31/17 12:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

It is aggravating that odds aren't posted the night before, particularly for games that start at 8:30 am Pacific Time. I expect that both Washington and Atlanta will be 8-10 point favorites. Hopefully I will get up early enough to post the odds, and perhaps make a pick, but I don't really like either game.


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PostPosted: 05/31/17 7:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for May 30:

Los Angeles 3.5 @ New York 157.5
Dallas 3.5 Indiana 167

Coming off an abysmal effort against Phoenix, I expect the Wings to bounce back, so I will take Dallas -3.5. I looked hard at the Liberty, but for some reason I think the Sparks will actually play a good game on the road, so I will pass.


LA v NY Under


Shit. In my rush to beat the tip (which I admit I didn't), I read the wrong number and thought I had the 167.

Oh well, I stand by my bet. Confused


0-1, 3-4



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PostPosted: 05/31/17 10:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for May 31:

Washington 7.5 Connecticut 162
Atlanta 7.5 San Antonio 158.5

The lines came in just a bit shorter than I expected. I'll take Washington -7.5 to finish out the month of May.


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PostPosted: 06/01/17 4:42 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for June 1:

Phoenix 4.5 @Chicago 162


The month of May is over and it was a good one, 15-7. Now let's see how June goes. I'll start off with Phoenix laying the points. I will also take under 162


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PostPosted: 06/01/17 6:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for June 1:

Phoenix 4.5 @Chicago 162


The month of May is over and it was a good one, 15-7. Now let's see how June goes. I'll start off with Phoenix laying the points. I will also take under 162


Sorry to do this, but I will piggyback. (welcome to my world). Cool

Phoenix 4.5 @Chicago 162 U

woohoo! 1-1!!!

4-5



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PostPosted: 06/01/17 8:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for June 1:

Phoenix 4.5 @Chicago 162


The month of May is over and it was a good one, 15-7. Now let's see how June goes. I'll start off with Phoenix laying the points. I will also take under 162


Sorry to do this, but I will piggyback. (welcome to my world). Cool

Phoenix 4.5 @Chicago 162 U


Lol. When the teams are 15-15 ft, 11-21 from 3 with 10 turnovers at half, it's over for the under. Laughing



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PostPosted: 06/01/17 9:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Fortunate to get a split today. It's tough when you know you've lost one bet by the end of the first quarter and have to sweat out the other till the final minute.


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PostPosted: 06/02/17 2:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for June 2:

New York 3 Dallas 157

Last night I saw an outlaw line (not from a place I could place a bet) that showed the Liberty as an 8 point favorite. I didn't post that because it seemed really low, but I was excited at the possibility. The current line makes much more sense. I would have made the line NY by 1, but I can't quite get to Dallas. I will take the over and hope that these two teams can shoot like the Sky and Mercury did last night.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/03/17 3:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for June 3:

Indiana 3.5 Dallas 164
Connecticut 5 @San Antonio 155.5
Minnesota 3.5 @Seattle 161.5

Indiana is 2-0 at home this season, but have won those games by a total of just 5 points. This is a back-to-back game for the Fever but the Wings had to play a game last night in New York. This sets up for Indiana and over, but given the lines I have to pass.

Connecticut is 1-5, but 4-2 against the spread. San Antonio is 0-6 but 5-1 ATS. This tells me that both teams play close games and I believe that the Stars will stay within the number, and maybe even pick up their first win. The two teams are a combined 9-3 on the under and each team has scored 80 points only once, so I will also take the under.

The best game of the day is Seattle-Minnesota and I will be watching, but from a betting perspective I don't see any edge. Pass.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 06/03/17 6:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Too late for my favorite play, Indy.

Two young, low-scoring teams and a real low number. I'm doomed either way. In the interest of watchability, I'll take the under in SA.

In Sea I'm going over.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/03/17 9:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

No fan of Moriah Jefferson. When you are down 8 as a 5 point underdog, you have to pull up for a three in the final seconds. Two losses today brings my overall record to 17-10.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 06/03/17 9:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
No fan of Moriah Jefferson. When you are down 8 as a 5 point underdog, you have to pull up for a three in the final seconds. Two losses today brings my overall record to 17-10.


I've got you beat. That steal and layup beat the under. No fan of Banham here. Evil or Very Mad

Another split, unless MINN-SEA go scoreless for 5+ mins.

1-1, 4-5.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/04/17 11:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for June 4:

Washington 5.5 Atlanta 162
Phoenix 4.5 @New York 160.5

Despite their record I don't believe that Atlanta is a top half team. I'll take the Mystics and lay the points. Phoenix has me confused. They appeared to be a defensive team but have averaged over 100 points in their last two games. I'll pass on their game today as I reassess.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 06/06/17 2:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for June 6:

Washington 3 @Dallas 164.5
Seattle 7.5 @San Antonio 159.5
Los Angeles 13.5 Chicago 168

Two road favorites with a combined 1-3 record on the road. Dallas has played well at home, destroying Indiana and losing by a basket to Minnesota. The Mystics only win was over Chicago. I'll take the Wings. I also want to take the Stars, but I am scared off by the shellacking that Seattle endured in their last game.

The Sparks have only won 5 games at home (out of 36) by more than 13 points under Brian Agler. This game sets up as an LA blowout, but with the history I can't quite get to the Sparks. Pass.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 06/06/17 7:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

All 3 Overs



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