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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 06/07/17 6:49 am ::: |
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Yesssss....a meaningless (to the game) 3 at the buzzer by KMac ensures a winning night.
2-1, 6-6.
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/07/17 8:05 am ::: |
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Odds for Jun 7:
New York 3.5 Atlanta 158.5
Phoenix 1 @Indiana 162
These are early lines, but when there is an 8 AM (PDT) I can't wait for the more settled line. New York looks very good to me as does the under in the early game. I hope that Brittany Boyd contributed to the Liberty's success by taking former Cal teammate Layshia Clarendon out on the town for a late night to celebrate her recent marriage.
I also like Phoenix and the over in the late game. Phoenix has started to play more up tempo. They are coming off a poor outing at New York and I hope they can bounce back against a game but outgunned Fever team. Four plays out of two games. I must be too tired to make rational decisions.
p
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/09/17 3:05 pm ::: |
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Odds for June 9:
Minnesota 6 @Washington 159.5
Seattle 5.5 @Indiana 162.5
Los Angeles 7 @Dallas 165.5
Three home underdogs of more than 5 points. This shows the increasing chasm between the top teams and the rest. I'll take two of the dogs, Indiana and Dallas. Neither one of these teams has nearly the talent of their opponent, but I believe they will both put forth solid efforts and may be able to stay within the line. My primary concern, particularly with Dallas, is the team has shown a propensity to foul late that can turn a 5 point loss into a 10 point loss, but I will take that risk.
I will also take the Lynx over the total. Both teams can score and play defense, but it seems so far that the good teams lean toward offense in big matchups.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/10/17 9:37 am ::: |
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Odds for June 10:
Connecticut 2 Atlanta 155.5
San Antonio PK Chicago 162.5
Phoenix 1.5 Los Angeles 162.5
The Sparks imploded in the 4th quarter and were run off the court by a game but under-talented Wings team. LA may bounce back but I doubt it, so I will take Phoenix and the over today. Connecticut has had a week off and I don't like playing teams that have been on such a long break. Chicago and San Antonio look like the worst teams in the league. I'm tempted to take the under, but I will pass.
Yesterday I was 3-0 to push my season record to 25-11.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 06/10/17 7:02 pm ::: |
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You're hot as shit! Sorry to cool you down:
Merc and the Over. :/
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 06/11/17 7:05 am ::: |
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My mediocrity continues...
1-1, 7-7
(at least I had Tapwrit)
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/11/17 11:51 am ::: |
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cthskzfn wrote: |
You're hot as shit! Sorry to cool you down:
Merc and the Over. :/ |
The year gas gone well so far. But I also know that there is always a bit of luck that goes into this, and so far it has been more on my side. My 1-1 yesterday still leaves me at 26-12.
Odds for June 11:
Washington 6 Indiana 163
New York 3.5 Seattle 159.5
Minnesota 10 Dallas 171
I like the Mystics. They are a tier 2 team (Minnesota is the only tier 1).The concern is the status of EDD, but even without her I think the Mystics might be able to cover the line. Minnesota is the best team in the league by a large margin. But when favored by 10 or more points this season they are 0-4 against the spread. In their first game against the Wings they squeaked out a 2 point win, 89-87. I believe that this will not be enough for the Lynx to play 40 minutes, so i'll take the Wings. I also think that the total has been adjusted so much that there is enough value for me to take the under. I considered playing the Storm getting points as Stewart and Bird should be motivated playing in the Big Apple. But Seattle hasn't shown enough on the road so I will pass.
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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005 Posts: 24397 Location: London
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Posted: 06/11/17 1:27 pm ::: |
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I hope you've been backing these picks with cash, calbearman76. Keep a 70% success rate going and you'll be rolling in it. Hell, do it for a while and people will start paying for your picks, and you won't even have to back them yourself.
In my experience these things tend to plummet annoyingly back to earth, but hopefully you're just better at it than I am . |
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/11/17 6:15 pm ::: |
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Richyyy wrote: |
I hope you've been backing these picks with cash, calbearman76. Keep a 70% success rate going and you'll be rolling in it. Hell, do it for a while and people will start paying for your picks, and you won't even have to back them yourself.
In my experience these things tend to plummet annoyingly back to earth, but hopefully you're just better at it than I am :). |
Being from Nevada, I do spend some time at my local bookie. This has certainly been a good year so far, but I don't get carried away with my success. I am well aware that luck plays a big role, and my goal is always 60%, because I know that 70% is unattainable over the long run. If I start to drift downward so be it, but please, Richyyy, stay away from words like "plummet." Seriously. Thank you for your kind words.
Today I went 2-1 with the Mystics (and EDD) winning easily. The Lynx also did a good job of sitting on the lead and slowing the game down in the second half, but they never let the lead fall to single digits in the fourth quarter. Overall record 28-13, 68%.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/12/17 9:02 pm ::: |
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With the season 1 month old I thought it might be interesting to look at the current odds to win the championship.
Minnesota 3/2
Los Angeles 16/5
Washington 11/2
New York 8/1
Seattle 10/1
Phoenix 11/1
Atlanta 16/1
Indiana 20/1
Connecticut 35/1
Dallas 35/1
Chicago 80/1
San Antonio 125/1
I certainly wouldn't make any of these bets, but the odds are interesting, if only to clarify the oddsmakers current rankings of the teams.
While I don't use early offshore odds to make my picks because they are often quite different from what I consider the official odds that are released by Las Vegas books in the morning, I have seen LA as a 12 point favorite over Dallas (total 170) and Seattle an 8 point favorite over Atlanta (159).
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/13/17 12:15 pm ::: |
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Odds for June 13:
Seattle 8.5 Atlanta 164
Los Angeles 11.5 Dallas 171.5
Funny the way the one bet I really liked last night is the line that moved 4 points, the Storm over. As a result my only play for today is LA over.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 06/13/17 8:32 pm ::: |
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calbearman76 wrote: |
Odds for June 13:
Seattle 8.5 Atlanta 164
Los Angeles 11.5 Dallas 171.5
Funny the way the one bet I really liked last night is the line that moved 4 points, the Storm over. As a result my only play for today is LA over. |
164 Over
171.5 Under
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/13/17 10:17 pm ::: |
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How can you handicap a 31 point 1st quarter followed by a 52 point second. Oh well, at least I have a chance now. Best of luck to you, huskies fan, on your over with Seattle. I leaned that way, but the line was too rich for me.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/13/17 11:24 pm ::: |
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cthskzfn wrote: |
calbearman76 wrote: |
Odds for June 13:
Seattle 8.5 Atlanta 164
Los Angeles 11.5 Dallas 171.5
Funny the way the one bet I really liked last night is the line that moved 4 points, the Storm over. As a result my only play for today is LA over. |
164 Over
171.5 Under |
Looks like you got your over, Amazing the way overtimes can bail you out. Of course you still need 11 points in the OT. On the other hand you lost your under because of 21 points in the last 70 seconds, so overall 1-1 seems fair.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/14/17 10:01 am ::: |
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Odds for Flag Day:
Connecticut 1.5 New York 161
No pick yet. I may get some inspiration later but for now I pass.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 06/14/17 6:02 pm ::: |
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calbearman76 wrote: |
Odds for Flag Day:
Connecticut 1.5 New York 161
No pick yet. I may get some inspiration later but for now I pass. |
New York
0-1, 8-9
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/15/17 1:16 pm ::: |
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Odds for June 15:
Indiana 4.5 Atlanta 164.5
Los Angeles 14.5 San Antonio 161
Making up for yesterday's pass today I have two plays. Atlanta-Indiana under 164.5 - Atlanta has gone over in its last two games, but only because of allowing 104 against Connecticut and then overtime in Seattle, Before that they were 6-1 on the under and have only scored 80+ points twice in regulation. San Antonio +14.5 - If they put 15 points on the Stars side of the scoreboard I have no question that LA could catch and pass them, maybe even in the first half. But the Stars hang close and the Sparks showed that even a 22 point lead in the 4th quarter didn't assure covering an 11.5 point spread against the Wings.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/15/17 11:54 pm ::: |
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2-0 today, 3-0 for the week so far, and now 31-13 for the year (70%). Ready for the inevitable fall.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/16/17 4:59 pm ::: |
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Odds for June 16:
New York 1 @Dallas 171.5
Phoenix 8.5 Chicago 163.5
Only 4 teams have lost 3 or more games at home this season, the two cellar dwellers and today's two home teams. Dallas has perhaps the smallest home court advantage, but this is a winnable game. I want to take the Wings but the Liberty played so poorly against Connecticut that Bill can't be happy. I'll pass. Phoenix struggled out of the gate but has been playing much better of late. Chicago is bad. The Mercury beat the Sky 99-91 at Chicago two weeks ago and I see more of the same, but with a bigger spread. I like both Phoenix and the over.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 06/16/17 7:06 pm ::: |
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calbearman76 wrote: |
Odds for June 16:
New York 1 @Dallas 171.5
Phoenix 8.5 Chicago 163.5 |
NY
PHO & Over
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/16/17 7:51 pm ::: |
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cthskzfn wrote: |
calbearman76 wrote: |
Odds for June 16:
New York 1 @Dallas 171.5
Phoenix 8.5 Chicago 163.5 |
NY
PHO & Over |
I'm rooting for you today. Actually I root for you every day you don't go against me.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 06/16/17 10:01 pm ::: |
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cthskzfn wrote: |
calbearman76 wrote: |
Odds for June 16:
New York 1 @Dallas 171.5
Phoenix 8.5 Chicago 163.5 |
NY
PHO & Over |
13 pts left on the FT in the first half alone. Naturally, I have the Over.
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 12851 Location: In a world where a PSYCHOpath like Trump isn't potus.
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Posted: 06/16/17 11:10 pm ::: |
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2-1 for a sterling 10-10 overall. The Mediocrity March continues...
_________________ Silly, stupid white people might be waking up.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009 Posts: 5167 Location: Carson City
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Posted: 06/16/17 11:14 pm ::: |
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Win the total by a half point, lose the side by a half point. It could have been worse. 1-1 tonight, 32-13 for the season.
Overseas line for tomorrow is Minnesota 10.5, total 161.5.
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