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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 08/27/17 8:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for August 27:

Seattle 3 Phoenix 165.5
Los Angeles 2.5 Minnesota 155.5



LA -2.5


1-0, 27-17-1



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/29/17 3:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for August 28:

Washington 1.5 Connecticut 169

Today's game is the rain postponement from a month ago. Washington actually started off as the underdog and I wish I had posted the line earlier because I like the Mystics I just hope it isn't a 1 point game. I would take the under if I thought this game had significant playoff implications, but Connecticut is essentially locked into a first round bye and the Mystics will get a first round home game. Therefore I will pass on the total.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/30/17 5:22 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for August 30:

Minnesota 15 @Indiana 155
Chicago 2 Dallas 176.5

Very little to pick from tonight. I will take Dallas to eliminate Chicago from playoff consideration and keep them in line for a home game in the first round.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 09/01/17 2:33 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for September 1:

Washington 2 Seattle 160
New York 13 San Antonio 149.5
Minnesota 13.5 Chicago 164
Connecticut 1 @Phoenix 170.5
Los Angeles 13 Atlanta 158.5

As I head into the final weekend my record is 75-62-1 (55%). May and June were great, July and August not so much. Hopefully September will be more like the first two than the last two. The big question for all games tonight is trying to determine the motivation for each team. A motivated team will tend to play better, but may also play a little more defensively. This really comes into play for Washington and Seattle. The Mystics need a win to assure themselves of a home game in the playoffs. Hopefully that matters to them. If it does they should be able to cover the short spread against the Storm. The Storm would like to win the game as well to "earn" their playoff slot, but it is likely that they will get into the playoffs regardless as long as LA beats Atlanta. I'll take the Mystics.

New York is on an 8 game winning streak during which they have held their opponents to under 67 points per game. But this is their last home game and I suspect they will want to give some excitement to their fans. The Liberty and Sun are locked into the first round byes and there no longer appears to be a big difference the two spots in terms of matchups. The only worrying factor I have is that the Stars hung 93 points on the Liberty in their last game, but I will still take the over. Connecticut beat Phoenix 94-66 less than two weeks ago. Phoenix can lock up a home playoff game with a win. I like the Mercury and the under.


cthskzfn



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Posts: 11893
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PostPosted: 09/01/17 6:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Washington 2 Seattle 160
New York 13 San Antonio 149.5
Minnesota 13.5 Chicago 164
Connecticut 1 @Phoenix 170.5
Los Angeles 13 Atlanta 158.5



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 09/01/17 7:36 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Washington 2 Seattle 160
New York 13 San Antonio 149.5
Minnesota 13.5 Chicago 164
Connecticut 1 @Phoenix 170.5
Los Angeles 13 Atlanta 158.5


You've been doing so well, how come you are agreeing with me!?!
Best of luck.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/02/17 7:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
Washington 2 Seattle 160
New York 13 San Antonio 149.5
Minnesota 13.5 Chicago 164
Connecticut 1 @Phoenix 170.5
Los Angeles 13 Atlanta 158.5


You've been doing so well, how come you are agreeing with me!?!
Best of luck.


Thanks. It did give me pause, then I figured I'm so hot, even you can't stop me. Wink



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 09/02/17 7:02 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Washington 2 Seattle 160
New York 13 San Antonio 149.5
Minnesota 13.5 Chicago 164
Connecticut 1 @Phoenix 170.5
Los Angeles 13 Atlanta 158.5


2-0, 29-17-1



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 09/02/17 2:26 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for September 2:

Indiana 3 San Antonio 150.5

This is a game only bettors can love. The two worst teams in the league playing the only game of the night. The Fever have lost 7 in a row and 15 of their last 17. The Stars hit their stride the first half of August, winning 4 of 5, but stepped in a pothole to secure the worst record in the league by losing their last 4. If 150.5 was the over/under for the number of walkup ticket sales at this game I would be all in on the under, but as it is I see no reason why either team will be interested in playing defense. Kelsey Plum could have a big day. I like the over.

On a related note yesterday I had the over on the Stars-Liberty game. The teams combined for 8 points in the first 4 minutes of the game and only 6 in the last 4.5 minutes. Over that time the teams combined to shoot 5-30 (17%). Fortunately for me the rest of the game was played at a 172 point pace so the game limped over by a half point. Usually I would feel fortunate to win a total by a half point, but last night I was wondering why I had to sweat out a game that was 77-67 with 4:45 to go and I only needed 6 more points.


calbearman76



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Posts: 3638
Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/03/17 12:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for September 3:


New York 3.5 @Dallas 166.5
Los Angeles 8 Connecticut 161
Chicago 1.5 Seattle 170.5
Phoenix 8.5 Atlanta 161.5
Minnesota 11 Washington 160

Final day of the regular season and there is very little left to play for as far as playoff seedings are concerned. I will take two games that have some meaning. First I will take the Liberty and lay the points to secure the 3rd seed against the Wings. I will also take the under as their path to their 9 game winning streak has been their defense. Second I will take the Sparks as Connecticut has fallen on hard times of late and LA still holds out hope of an overall #1 seed. Hopefully they won't be getting any scores from St. Paul as the game is going on.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/03/17 3:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for September 3:


New York 3.5 @Dallas 166.5
Los Angeles 8 Connecticut 161
Chicago 1.5 Seattle 170.5
Phoenix 8.5 Atlanta 161.5
Minnesota 11 Washington 160


LA -8



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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/03/17 5:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for September 3:


New York 3.5 @Dallas 166.5
Los Angeles 8 Connecticut 161
Chicago 1.5 Seattle 170.5
Phoenix 8.5 Atlanta 161.5
Minnesota 11 Washington 160


LA -8


1-0, 30-17. Went 14-2 down the stretch.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 09/06/17 2:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for September 6:

Washington 5.5 Dallas 171
Phoenix 4.5 Seattle 163

I finished off the regular season well (but nothing like you, huskies fan) to get back to 81-64-1 (56%). Getting started in the playoffs, both home teams look like the choices. I'll take the Mystics and Mercury.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/06/17 8:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for September 6:

Washington 5.5 Dallas 171
Phoenix 4.5 Seattle 163.


Pho -4.5



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cthskzfn



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Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/07/17 6:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for September 6:

Washington 5.5 Dallas 171
Phoenix 4.5 Seattle 163.


Pho -4.5


1-0, 31-17-1



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 09/10/17 10:51 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for September 10:

New York 5.5 Washington 153.5
Connecticut 5.5 Phoenix 166.5

The playoffs started off well with 2 wins but those were with the two teams that had little chance of making any impact on the playoffs. The teams that are left are all capable of beating one another if they are playing their best. The Liberty have been playing the best of anyone, and playing at home is enough to allow me to take the Liberty and lay the points. These teams have played three games this season without scoring more than 140 points, so I also like the under. Connecticut has struggled down the stretch and certainly needed the week off. The question is whether they can regain their form. These two teams played twice in the past three weeks with the Sun winning by 28 at home and the Mercury returning the favor by 20. I don't expect a blowout today and as long as Griner can stay out of foul trouble I believe the Mercury can stay within the number if not pull the outright upset. I also like the under.


calbearman76



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Location: Carson City


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PostPosted: 09/12/17 11:41 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for September 12:

Minnesota 9.5 Washington 160
Los Angeles 9 Phoenix 156.5

The semifinals have arrived and we now have real favorites instead of teams just being favored by virtue of playing at home. Both games feature teams that have to kick off some rust against teams that have to play two road games with only one day of rest. This is a normal schedule for Washington because the travel is less than 1000 miles, but for Phoenix it is a cross country trip.

In the first game I will pass because I want to see how effective Lindsey Whalen will be, but I would lean to the Lynx. The Mercury are playing very well and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win a game in LA, but the travel keeps me from playing them tonight. But I will take the Phoenix-LA game over.

Sunday I was 2-2 to bring my playoff record to 4-2.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/12/17 5:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I would normally take Minn and the Merc, but 2 things you mention, Lynx rust and Merc travel, scare me off all plays tonight.

I loved Pho at CT but forgot about the game. It would have been a nice rally win.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 09/14/17 6:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for September 14:

Minnesota 10.5 Washington 163.5
Los Angeles 10 Phoenix 155.5

Minnesota took all of 5 minutes to kick off the rust on Tuesday and then they destroyed the Mystics. And unlike the regular season when they generally coasted to victory in the fourth quarter, the Lynx kept their foot on the Mystics throat until the final buzzer. That fire is enough for me to take the Lynx tonight. As for Phoenix, the combination of tired legs from the travel and two fouls on Griner thanks to world class flops by Parker and Beard doomed the Mercury Sunday. I expect Phoenix to rebound strongly tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the upset. I'll take the points.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/14/17 7:05 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for September 14:

Minnesota 10.5 Washington 163.5
Los Angeles 10 Phoenix 155.5

Minnesota took all of 5 minutes to kick off the rust on Tuesday and then they destroyed the Mystics. And unlike the regular season when they generally coasted to victory in the fourth quarter, the Lynx kept their foot on the Mystics throat until the final buzzer. That fire is enough for me to take the Lynx tonight. As for Phoenix, the combination of tired legs from the travel and two fouls on Griner thanks to world class flops by Parker and Beard doomed the Mercury Sunday. I expect Phoenix to rebound strongly tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the upset. I'll take the points.


make room in the boat!

MINN -10.5
PHO +10



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 09/14/17 8:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

better start bailing...



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 09/14/17 9:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

damn hook. Evil or Very Mad

damn you, toliver. Evil or Very Mad



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 09/17/17 11:13 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for September 17:

Minnesota 6.5 @Washington 164
Los Angeles 4.5 @Phoenix 155.5

This round of the playoffs has been hard on me, losing all three plays. Today the top two teams try to complete sweeps on the road. Minnesota has shown the character to complete the sweep and they may well do it, but I expect the Mystics to put up a fight. I will pass on the game, but if I make a bet it would be for the Mystics to win outright at +240 (12/5). I feel more strongly about Phoenix. The referees have really helped the Sparks, particularly late in the games, and I believe playing at home the Mercury will get more favorable treatment. I expect an upset and will take Phoenix plus the points. I will also take the over.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/17/17 12:23 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for September 14:

Minnesota 10.5 Washington 163.5
Los Angeles 10 Phoenix 155.5

Minnesota took all of 5 minutes to kick off the rust on Tuesday and then they destroyed the Mystics. And unlike the regular season when they generally coasted to victory in the fourth quarter, the Lynx kept their foot on the Mystics throat until the final buzzer. That fire is enough for me to take the Lynx tonight. As for Phoenix, the combination of tired legs from the travel and two fouls on Griner thanks to world class flops by Parker and Beard doomed the Mercury Sunday. I expect Phoenix to rebound strongly tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the upset. I'll take the points.


make room in the boat!

MINN -10.5
PHO +10


0-2, 31-19-1



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cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11893
Location: In a world where a dbag like Trump isn't potus.


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PostPosted: 09/17/17 1:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for September 17:

Minnesota 6.5 @Washington 164
Los Angeles 4.5 @Phoenix 155.5



Minn @ Wash Over

LA @ PHO Over


Here's to tremendous 3-pt shooting from all 4 teams.



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