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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/17/17 8:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for July 16:

New York 6.5 Washington 154
Connecticut 14.5 San Antonio 160
Dallas 6 Chicago 170
Minnesota 15.5 Phoenix 162


NY -6.5
Dallas -6
SA +14.5
Minn -15.5


Went 1-1 by the hook, had a push, and a 20+ pt blowout win, for 2-1. 20-16.



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/17/17 8:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
I always think it's incredibly unfair (or incredibly lucky, if you're on the other side) when a spread gets covered in overtime. The difference between the teams was 0 when the game came to it's standard endpoint. If that changes in this extra five minutes they decided to play, I shouldn't be punished for that.


I guess I had your sympathy when it took triple OT to beat my under bet last winter. Smile



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/17/17 4:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for July 17:

Los Angeles 14.5 Indiana 158

A game on Monday. I will take the under because I don't see either team wanting to run and gun.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/17/17 9:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for July 17:

Los Angeles 14.5 Indiana 158


LA -14.5


1-0, 21-16



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Last edited by cthskzfn on 07/17/17 11:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
Richyyy



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PostPosted: 07/17/17 11:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
Richyyy wrote:
I always think it's incredibly unfair (or incredibly lucky, if you're on the other side) when a spread gets covered in overtime. The difference between the teams was 0 when the game came to it's standard endpoint. If that changes in this extra five minutes they decided to play, I shouldn't be punished for that.


I guess I had your sympathy when it took triple OT to beat my under bet last winter. Smile

That's just ridiculously unfair. You've made the right guess that the rate of scoring will be lower than they expected, and were proven wildly correct. Then silly ties eventually beat you.

I guess if you bet enough it'd even out with good and bad, but I kinda feel like it'd be 'fairer' to accept the result at the end of regulation.



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/17/17 11:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
I always think it's incredibly unfair (or incredibly lucky, if you're on the other side) when a spread gets covered in overtime. The difference between the teams was 0 when the game came to it's standard endpoint. If that changes in this extra five minutes they decided to play, I shouldn't be punished for that.


This has long been a subject of discussion in betting circles. The European way with regard to Soccer is to have odds on only the 90 minutes of regulation, So in World Cup or other tournaments in the knockout rounds the wagers are 3 ways (win, lose or draw) and the totals do not include goals scored in OT) and that is the most popular form of wagering. In the US I can remember a sportsbook (The Hollywood in downtown Las Vegas) around 1980 that put up lines in Basketball that were specifically regulation time only. The totals were generally a point lower. The problem, as most sportsbooks see it, is that when scores are listed in the newspapers (or now online) they don't always indicate whether a game has gone into OT. This can cause questions and unhappy customers, particularly those that are not frequent gamblers.

Personally, the rule doesn't bother me. t does cause some games to go over that would otherwise have gone under, but there are also games where there are 15-20 points sxored in the last minute because the team that is behins keeps fouling. As far as I'm concerned it is all a part of the game.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/18/17 10:36 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for July 18:

Atlanta 9.5 San Antonio 153
Seattle 7.5 Chicago 164.5


With the win last night my record is now 54-32-1(63%). The Atlanta total is, I believe, the lowest total in the league since May. Atlanta has been scoring more of late, with three consecutive totals over 170. I like the over. Chicago has improved dramatically and I am becoming a believer that the Sky can make the playoffs. (I am going to see the Sky vs. the Sparks on Thursday, probably the only WNBA game I will be able to see in person this season.) But this is their third road game in five nights, and they are coming off a heartbreaking double OT loss to Dallas where they led nearly the entire game. I will take the Storm and the under.

I will be traveling again over the next week. Tomorrow in particular I may not be able to post the lines for tomorrow's games as they are all day games and I won't be getting to my hotel until after midnight.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/18/17 12:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Richyyy wrote:
I always think it's incredibly unfair (or incredibly lucky, if you're on the other side) when a spread gets covered in overtime. The difference between the teams was 0 when the game came to it's standard endpoint. If that changes in this extra five minutes they decided to play, I shouldn't be punished for that.


Personally, the rule doesn't bother me. t does cause some games to go over that would otherwise have gone under, but there are also games where there are 15-20 points sxored in the last minute because the team that is behins keeps fouling. As far as I'm concerned it is all a part of the game.


Just to prove the point, look at today's Dream-Stars game. 25 points scored in the last 90 seconds. The game was 15 points under at the time, but wound up over by 10. Generally you expect 4 points a minute, so there were an extra 19 points scored because of late fouling, roughly the same amount you would expect in an OT.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: 07/18/17 6:09 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
I will be traveling again over the next week. Tomorrow in particular I may not be able to post the lines for tomorrow's games as they are all day games and I won't be getting to my hotel until after midnight.



What site do you use? I can post tomorrow.



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/18/17 6:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Richyyy wrote:
I always think it's incredibly unfair (or incredibly lucky, if you're on the other side) when a spread gets covered in overtime. The difference between the teams was 0 when the game came to it's standard endpoint. If that changes in this extra five minutes they decided to play, I shouldn't be punished for that.


Personally, the rule doesn't bother me. t does cause some games to go over that would otherwise have gone under, but there are also games where there are 15-20 points sxored in the last minute because the team that is behins keeps fouling. As far as I'm concerned it is all a part of the game.


Just to prove the point, look at today's Dream-Stars game. 25 points scored in the last 90 seconds. The game was 15 points under at the time, but wound up over by 10. Generally you expect 4 points a minute, so there were an extra 19 points scored because of late fouling, roughly the same amount you would expect in an OT.


You can thank VJ for that win! She's ridiculous w/ game-end fouling.



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Randy



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PostPosted: 07/18/17 6:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Players probably love padding their stats in the closing seconds.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/19/17 10:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for July 19:

Connecticut 2.5 @New York 165
Washington 3 Atlanta 156.5
Minnesota 14 Dallas 170
Phoenix 6.5 Indiana 158

Minnesota has been awful as a double-digital favorite. I'll take Dallas plus the points. Washington has struggled to score the last two games without EDD. Even though Atlanta (and All Star Layshia Clarendon -GO BEARS) have been putting up points, I look for a defensive game, so I'll take the under.

Last night I was feeliing really good when I saw Seattle up 29-11 after 1 period. Then I went into the Giants game and when I checked after the baseball game ended, it seems the Sky won 94-83. So the Sky outscored the Storm 83-54 the last 3 quarters. What an abortion (really bad pun on Planned Parenthood Night). The silver lining is that I will be going to the Sky-Sparks game tomorrow, so hopefully the Sky can continue their strong play and make it a competitive game. A one else going to be there?

For your information, I generally use Vegas Insider consensus for the odds, but I wait until the Westgate Super Book has put out its line.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/20/17 12:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for July 20:

Los Angeles 12 Chicago 163.5
Indiana 6 @San Antonio 150

Last games before the All Star break. I know it is the kiss of death to switch sides now and take the Sky, but I believe.. I also like the Stars over. Now it is off to the Staples Center.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/25/17 2:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Sorry I missed the early game. Really sorry. I thought all the games were at night so I slept in. I'm at Caesars Palace now watching the final seconds of the Mystics game.

For the record Washington was a 7 point favorite and the total was 157, so the late fouling allowed the favorite and over to get the money.

Remailing games for July 25:

Atlanta 6 Phoenix 163
Connecticut 7 Chicago 173
Dallas 7 Indiana 168
Minnesota 12 New York 163.5
Los Angeles 10 Seattle 161

Dallas has been a great over team while Indiana has been a great under. I'll just take the Wings and lay the points. Usually a total as high as 173 would scare me off, but I was very impressed with the pace Chicago played against LA last week and I think today will be run and gun from the opening tip. Sun-Sky over. I also like the Lynx-Liberty under.

No games for the next few days so I will be able to make it back home.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/28/17 5:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for July 28:

New York 6 @Indiana 156.5
Washington 2.5 Connecticut 168
Minnesota 7,5 @Atlanta 166.5
Los Angeles 11.5 @San Antonio 154.5
Chicago 5 Phoenix 167
Seattle 6 Dallas 172

I like the San Antonio game over. I am tempted to also play the Stars as they have been improved in their past few outings, but end of game fouling against a generally very good foul shooting team scares me off the side. I also like the Sky. Phoenix showed heart against Atlanta in their last outing before collapsing in overtime. Based on history I'm not sure they can do it two games in a row. Indeed if the Sky win tonight I'm not sure if they don't wind up catching the Mercury by the end of the season (they would only be 2.5 games behind). Just the two plays.


cthskzfn



Joined: 21 Nov 2004
Posts: 11894
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PostPosted: 07/28/17 6:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for July 28:

Washington 2.5 Connecticut 168
Minnesota 7,5 @Atlanta 166.5
Los Angeles 11.5 @San Antonio 154.5
Chicago 5 Phoenix 167
Seattle 6 Dallas 172


all overs

ETA: i am eliminating the Mystic/Sun bet.



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cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 07/29/17 11:52 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:
Odds for July 28:

Washington 2.5 Connecticut 168
Minnesota 7,5 @Atlanta 166.5
Los Angeles 11.5 @San Antonio 154.5
Chicago 5 Phoenix 167
Seattle 6 Dallas 172


all overs

ETA: i am eliminating the Mystic/Sun bet.


3-1, 24-17-1



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 07/30/17 2:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for July 30:

Connecticut 13.5 Indiana 162.5
Washington 2 @Atlanta 167.5
Los Angeles 12 Dallas 171.5
Phoenix 9 San Antonio 156.5
New York 3 @Chicago 165
Minnesota 11.5 Seattle 166.5

I had trouble posting earlier, so I have no plays on the first two games (because they have already started). I like Dallas-LA and Phoenix-SA over. I also like the New York-Chicago game under. The only side I like is Seattle plus the points.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 08/02/17 10:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

What's up, Cal?



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/03/17 4:54 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

cthskzfn wrote:
What's up, Cal?



I don't know what is happening. I posted the line for Wednesday's game, or so I thought. (It was NY 9 @ SA 154) I said that I leaned toward the under but because of VJ's end of game fouling I would pass. And to make things worse I actually bet a few bucks on the first half under only to see SA score 54 points. That said, let me try again for today.

Odds for August 3:

Minnesota 12.5 Atlanta 165

This has been my favorite play all season. I will take Atlanta against a Lynx team that only once has covered as a double digit favorite all season. Hopefully this will post.


cthskzfn



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PostPosted: 08/03/17 4:59 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:
cthskzfn wrote:
What's up, Cal?



I don't know what is happening. I posted the line for Wednesday's game, or so I thought. (It was NY 9 @ SA 154) I said that I leaned toward the under but because of VJ's end of game fouling I would pass. And to make things worse I actually bet a few bucks on the first half under only to see SA score 54 points. That said, let me try again for today.

Odds for August 3:

Minnesota 12.5 Atlanta 165

This has been my favorite play all season. I will take Atlanta against a Lynx team that only once has covered as a double digit favorite all season. Hopefully this will post.



Glad it was only technical difficulties. Wink



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justintyme



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PostPosted: 08/03/17 9:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

calbearman76 wrote:

This has been my favorite play all season. I will take Atlanta against a Lynx team that only once has covered as a double digit favorite all season. Hopefully this will post.

Heh. Who would've thunk that with the Lynx down 6 going into the 4th they would get their second...



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calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/04/17 5:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

justintyme wrote:
calbearman76 wrote:

This has been my favorite play all season. I will take Atlanta against a Lynx team that only once has covered as a double digit favorite all season. Hopefully this will post.

Heh. Who would've thunk that with the Lynx down 6 going into the 4th they would get their second...


Yeah. All the breaks I was getting earlier this season have reversed of late, but that is the way things go sometimes. Pilight might know whether a team has ever not scored a field goal in a quarter before in the WNBA. Nonetheless I will carry on.

Odds for August 4:

Connecticut 8 Phoenix 167.5
Indiana 1.5 Chicago 164
Dallas PK Seattle 174
Washington 5 @San Antonio 154
Los Angeles 8.5 New York 158.5

Connecticut should see this as an important game to getting a bye in the playoffs, and possibly even a double bye if LA slips. Phoenix has been hanging in without Griner, but I believe the Sun can win and cover. Dallas had been scoring much higher earlier in the season, but I sense they have been slowing down a bit of late. I like both Dallas and the under today, I have to think my luck is about to change, although I don't really know why.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/05/17 1:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for August 5:

Atlanta 1 @Chicago 165
Seattle 5,5 @San Antonio 158

I actually had a winning day. It looked bad for a long time as Dallas rained down 13-17 3's in the first half, but a low scoring 4th quarter kept the game under to get me to 2-1 for the day. that brings me to 61-45-1 (58%), and it hopefully breaks a 4 week skid where I went 11-20-1. You can't win 'em all.

Two interesting games today. Atlanta and Chicago completed the only significant trade at the deadline with the Dream picking up Boyette and Young, two significant contributors for the Sky. And yet in their first game after the game the Sky won while the Dream absolutely collapsed in the fourth quarter. The Sky are the only team with a significantly worse home record (2-9) than road record (7-7) - (Phoenix is 7-6 at home, 6-5 on the road). And the Sky are playing back-to-back games. All of this points me to Atlanta and over, but I actually like Chicago and under, so I will pass.

Seattle has been disappointing this season. They seemed to have the young talent to be a factor, at least in getting a first round bye. Now, thanks to a front loaded home schedule, they are fighting for a playoff spot. This could be a must win and San Antonio is coming off back-to-back wins over New York and Washington. Both teams played last night which means the teams could be tired and that puts me on the over as the only play for today.


calbearman76



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PostPosted: 08/06/17 12:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Odds for August 6:

Washington 3.5 Phoenix 160
Los Angeles 7.5 @Dallas 171
Minnesota 12 @Indiana 161

In the battle of best vs, worst I'll take worst. This has been my favorite play all year but I am a bit concerned that Renee Montgomery won't play the way Lindsay Whelan does. That Geno teaching isn't to sit on a lead. Still I'll take the Fever.

Dallas and LA have already played three times this year. The scores have been 96-90, 97-87, and 95-74. In the last game the teams scored only 30 points in the 4th quarter. These two teams love to run and gun so I will take the over and hope the game isn't a blowout.


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