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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005 Posts: 11232
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Posted: 02/27/17 3:07 pm ::: Cal and Tennessee |
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There are more, of course, but both are teams -- at slightly different levels -- that are confounding and inconsistent.
Cal, to take the less familiar case, doesn't have the raw talent of Tennessee but has more than it record reveals. Like Tennessee, it can rise up and surprise a more highly rated opponent, and like Tennessee, can crumble into dust in games it should win easily.
Watching Tennessee dismantle Mississippi State yesterday, and watching Diamond DeShields look like a No. 1 overall pick, it's hard to fathom how they've lost so many games.
And when Cal is rolling, it's equally hard to figure out how the Bears could get swept by Utah.
Naturally, the criticism is aimed at the coaches, and in both cases, it seems a lack of offensive imagination is really the key -- and for Cal, an inability to excuse high school level fundamentals at crunch time. But it seems to me the easiest kind of assistant coach to find is an Xs and Os savant who can design a system to take advantage of available talent. Or maybe not.
And maybe it's the players, individually and as a group, that just can't seem to get themselves ready to play every game, even though the coaches are trying everything they know. (It's not always the coach's fault -- sometimes there's just a mix of personalities that is negative, if not poisonous.)
Still, Tennessee and Cal are the poster children for these kinds of teams -- you know, the ones that no one wants to play because if Jupiter is aligned with Mars and the talent shows up, they're very good, but if the moon is in the seventh house, they could lose to a D2 team.
_________________ Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 02/27/17 4:23 pm ::: |
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agree.
Definitely won't want to see Tenn in my bracket. I was worried for awhile they might get a 6 seed and then host for Stanford. Now it looks like they will get a 4 or 5, so at least that worry is over.
Cal will have to do something in the P12 tourney to even think about possibly maybe getting in and it's hard to see that happening. They do have so much talent, and actually seem to be ok in terms of meshing...so maybe you are right that a really good X's and O's assistant could make a difference. For me, it's a mixed bag. I don't want to see them good enough to beat my team, yet I really want them to be better than they have shown. They clearly have more talent than many teams, including my Trees, that they lose to. I do blame the coaching, even though I can see that Gottlieb is a nice person and the Cal fans seems to love her....so that goes back to maybe getting the right assistant. They have a couple of players now who can hit threes so if they could try to develop an inside out game rather than all inside, that would be a benefit.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 02/27/17 4:51 pm ::: |
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I'll just throw out there that the opposite mix can seemingly produce similar results.
NCSt beat Notre Dame, FSU, Duke and Louisville, and finished ahead of Louisville, Cuse, and Miami in the ACC, but also lost to UNC, Wake, Tulane and LSU. In their case it might be a result of coaching that outstrips available talent, rather than bad coaching dragging down superior talent.
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GlennMacGrady
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Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8291 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 02/27/17 6:00 pm ::: Re: Cal and Tennessee |
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ClayK wrote: |
Still, Tennessee and Cal are the poster children for these kinds of teams -- you know, the ones that no one wants to play because if Jupiter is aligned with Mars and the talent shows up, they're very good, but if the moon is in the seventh house, they could lose to a D2 team. |
Best sentence I've read this week. |
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Howee
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Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15765 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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Posted: 02/27/17 6:40 pm ::: |
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This makes me think of a Geno-ism (and I must paraphrase....): "You practice something until you CAN'T do it wrong."
Now, that's kind of subjective, but it also explains a lot, if you watch UConn. Hard-core consistency is what separates the elites from the wannabes, and is the best antidote for the Mars/Jupiter factors. And even IT is on a sliding scale.....and TN & Cal do a lotta sliding. I see it in my beloved Sooners, too: they can lose to Oral Roberts, and beat TX.
I haven't followed Cal all that closely, but weren't they in the FF a couple of years ago? Have they had a recruiting drought, or what?
_________________ Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 02/27/17 7:30 pm ::: |
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Howee wrote: |
I haven't followed Cal all that closely, but weren't they in the FF a couple of years ago? Have they had a recruiting drought, or what? |
lots of McD AA, but IMO a coaching drought...but if the Cal fans are happy, who am I to criticize...
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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22
Joined: 31 Mar 2015 Posts: 102
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Posted: 02/28/17 12:13 am ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
agree.
Definitely won't want to see Tenn in my bracket. I was worried for awhile they might get a 6 seed and then host for Stanford. Now it looks like they will get a 4 or 5, so at least that worry is over.
Cal will have to do something in the P12 tourney to even think about possibly maybe getting in and it's hard to see that happening. They do have so much talent, and actually seem to be ok in terms of meshing...so maybe you are right that a really good X's and O's assistant could make a difference. For me, it's a mixed bag. I don't want to see them good enough to beat my team, yet I really want them to be better than they have shown. They clearly have more talent than many teams, including my Trees, that they lose to. I do blame the coaching, even though I can see that Gottlieb is a nice person and the Cal fans seems to love her....so that goes back to maybe getting the right assistant. They have a couple of players now who can hit threes so if they could try to develop an inside out game rather than all inside, that would be a benefit. |
What are you basing your opinion that Cal clearly has more talent that Stanford on?
Because I don't see it... for instance, in the 2 games they played against each other, Cal played its 3 freshmen (none of them McDonald's AAs) a total of 112 minutes, at times with all 3 on the court at once -- while Stanford's 3 McD AA frosh saw the court for a total of 9 min.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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Posted: 02/28/17 3:32 pm ::: |
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I guess it starts with the ‘eye’ test. Cal is clearly superior in athleticism and I don’t think anyone could disagree with that. As we all know, some players work out, others disappear or transfer. Both schools have some of both. Yes, last year Stanford had a ‘better’ recruiting class according to Hoopgurlz. But since those players, at least on the Stanford side, haven’t really come into play much, I didn’t actually think much about them.
2017
Next year we have a top class coming in with #8, 11, and 44. Cal isn’t too shabby though with #21 and #43. Still this should swing the numbers toward the trees.
2016
I know that #27 Fingall will be an important player for the Trees in the future as we will be post deficient. This year the upperclassmen are getting the time there. Cal’s Brown at #54 has been impressive in the last several games with her athleticism and ability to hit the three. Especially impressive considering she missed her senior year after a severe knee injury. (I’m guessing she would have been ranked much higher otherwise). I expect good things from her in the future.
2015
#8 Anigwe, the real deal for sure, and Chen Yue at #51. Not sure how A. Thomas was so low at #87 as I think she is as good as Stanford’s Sniezek #38. It’s probably again because of an ACL her senior year.
2014
Cal: #10 Cowling and #12 Green. Green transferred after last year for reasons unknown and is clearly a big loss.
Stanford got Rooks #18 who then transferred to Harvard and wasn’t good enough to start for them this year! And McPhee #25 who has been a decent player for the Trees, as well as #30 Johnson, who isn’t great but fills a role.
2013
Stanford got #11 McCall and Karlie Samuelson #77. Cal got Range #38 and Waters #54
so if you look at the numbers for starters this year:
Stanford, #11, #25, #30, #77, unranked (Roberson)
CalBears: #8, #10, #38, #87, unranked because she’s foreign (Davidson)
So the ‘top’ two are better than Stanford’s first player. Down the line it doesn’t look SO lopsided but the results sure have been.
_________________ For there is always light,
if only we’re brave enough to see it.
If only we’re brave enough to be it.
- Amanda Gorman
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22
Joined: 31 Mar 2015 Posts: 102
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Posted: 03/01/17 3:21 am ::: |
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myrtle wrote: |
I guess it starts with the ‘eye’ test. Cal is clearly superior in athleticism and I don’t think anyone could disagree with that. As we all know, some players work out, others disappear or transfer. Both schools have some of both. Yes, last year Stanford had a ‘better’ recruiting class according to Hoopgurlz. But since those players, at least on the Stanford side, haven’t really come into play much, I didn’t actually think much about them.
2017
Next year we have a top class coming in with #8, 11, and 44. Cal isn’t too shabby though with #21 and #43. Still this should swing the numbers toward the trees.
2016
I know that #27 Fingall will be an important player for the Trees in the future as we will be post deficient. This year the upperclassmen are getting the time there. Cal’s Brown at #54 has been impressive in the last several games with her athleticism and ability to hit the three. Especially impressive considering she missed her senior year after a severe knee injury. (I’m guessing she would have been ranked much higher otherwise). I expect good things from her in the future.
2015
#8 Anigwe, the real deal for sure, and Chen Yue at #51. Not sure how A. Thomas was so low at #87 as I think she is as good as Stanford’s Sniezek #38. It’s probably again because of an ACL her senior year.
2014
Cal: #10 Cowling and #12 Green. Green transferred after last year for reasons unknown and is clearly a big loss.
Stanford got Rooks #18 who then transferred to Harvard and wasn’t good enough to start for them this year! And McPhee #25 who has been a decent player for the Trees, as well as #30 Johnson, who isn’t great but fills a role.
2013
Stanford got #11 McCall and Karlie Samuelson #77. Cal got Range #38 and Waters #54
so if you look at the numbers for starters this year:
Stanford, #11, #25, #30, #77, unranked (Roberson)
CalBears: #8, #10, #38, #87, unranked because she’s foreign (Davidson)
So the ‘top’ two are better than Stanford’s first player. Down the line it doesn’t look SO lopsided but the results sure have been. |
I'm still not really following your line of reasoning....
The eye test is not limited to athleticism is it? (and actually, I would argue that Cal only has an athletic advantage when you consider frosh Brown & Cayton -- in the starting lineup, neither Range or Thomas are athletically gifted if you're just talking about run/jump/quickness; and McCall & Johnson hold their own with Anigwe & Cowling)
More importantly, my point wasn't about recruiting (I used the example of AAs responding to your assertion that Cal has a lot of them) per se, but rather that Stanford's 3 freshman AAs don't see much court time because there is too much actual basketball talent ahead of them. It's pretty obvious that at least Fingall and Carrington would be getting a lot more minutes on Cal.
Your review of the recruiting classes also left out Alanna Smith in 2015, who has outplayed both Range & Davidson this season, and especially so in the head-to-head games.
Also, per Hoopgurlz, out of those 4 years Stanford had the 6th, 10th and 9th best ranked classes in 2013, 14 and 16 (unranked in '15) and Cal had the 18th, 14th and 8th best in 2013, 14 and 15 (unranked in '16). If this 'clearly' favors either, it's obviously Stanford.
Maybe more tellingly, included in these 4 classes was 8 5-star recruits for Stanford and only 4 for Cal.... As you noted, both schools have had some misses/transfers -- but the impact of losing 1 5-star player (Green) is much greater for Cal, having only 3 remaining (especially when 1 of those, Chen, is a long-term project, whose international evaluation doesn't exactly pass the eye test) that in is for Stanford (Rooks), with 7 5-stars left in its talent pool.
Again, if anybody is clearly favored here, it would seem to be Stanford.
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Nixtreefan
Joined: 14 Nov 2012 Posts: 2539
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Posted: 03/01/17 12:27 pm ::: |
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You don't have to argue, stupid is as stupid does. IMO there aren't that many smart players. Stanford used to be able to recruit really smart basketball players, there are just not that many out there any more. Too much selfish one on one me basketball going on. Why do you think USA is starting to lose at the youth level. Passing for example is a lost art. Being able to read the game is a lost art.
If coaches spoke out about the reality of their players and the players who they play against I would bet that the public would be very surprised at what they had to say if they could be truthful and not political about spotlight etc.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 03/01/17 12:49 pm ::: |
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I don't think the various recruiting services value or recognize in their rankings basketball IQ very much. They value athleticism and flash and 1-on-1 play.
So you can have a bunch of highly rated recruits who are great athletes and not great team basketball players. It's a big part of why citing class recruiting rankings doesn't mean much.
It seems to me that some coaches value IQ when recruiting and some don't. Many of the same schools and coaches year after year have great looking players who either don't understand the game, don't have the discipline, or don't have the mentality to play as a team. Often that's attributed to poor coaching in college, but I think it starts with who the coach chooses to recruit.
You know who they are.
WBB may be a little behind the men, but the problem isn't much different. Kevin Garnett ripped into AAU ball in an interview last week. The same could be said about the girls:
“Our league now is at a point where you have to teach more than anything. AAU has killed our league. Seriously. I hate to even say this, but it’s real,” Garnett said. “From the perspective that these kids are not being taught anything. They have intentions and they want things but the way they see it is not how our league works. You earn everything in this league. You’re not entitled to anything. And it’s more entitlement than anything."
One conundrum is that often the "smartest" players are those that have had to work hard and study the game for the very reason that they don't have the remarkable size or quickness or athleticism and have to play smarter to compensate. It's not hard to find athletes, and it's not hard to find smart players. What's hard is to find the few really smart disciplined players who are also tall, fast, and tremendous athletes.
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patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010 Posts: 2313 Location: Culver City, CA
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Posted: 03/01/17 6:38 pm ::: |
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ArtBest23 wrote: |
It's not hard to find athletes, and it's not hard to find smart players. What's hard is to find the few really smart disciplined players who are also tall, fast, and tremendous athletes. |
Who can shoot! Most rare: all of the above, plus a jumpshot.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 32341
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PlayBally'all
Joined: 17 Oct 2013 Posts: 271
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Posted: 03/03/17 11:25 am ::: |
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Everyone's analysis has merit as possible causes for roller coaster performances, but sometimes it boils down to a lack of team chemistry. Divisions within a team can fade to the back of the mind when everyone is hyper focused on the opponent, which happens when the team plays a big game. When the opponent isn't as formidable, some players tend to relax their focus and as a result, those divisions that are present come back to the forefront.
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013 Posts: 14550
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Posted: 03/03/17 11:36 am ::: |
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Wrong thread, sorry.
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