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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010 Posts: 2306 Location: Culver City, CA
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Posted: 01/09/17 1:47 pm ::: |
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Hey, how come my favorite team is not higher and other teams which I disfavor are not lower?! No way!!!
Sorry, pilight, I just wanted to get in the first one of those this season. I'm sure more will follow as the calendar progresses.
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purduefanatic
Joined: 10 Aug 2011 Posts: 2819 Location: Indiana
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Posted: 01/09/17 1:57 pm ::: |
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Man, I know the Big Ten is down, but holy cow, just 2 teams in as of now? Got mine in early too.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5411
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Posted: 01/09/17 2:35 pm ::: |
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My only issue is your method of valuing wins. UConn's wins against Baylor, Maryland Florida St & Notre Dame are valued the same as their wins over DePaul & Kansas St? And should home wins be valued the same as road wins? If UConn were to win tomorrow at home vs USF would that be seen as equivalent to their wins at Fl St, Maryland or Notre Dame? UConn is the easiest example but I doubt Miss St would be a 2 seed under a weighted wins system. Other than their win over Texas, MS hasn't played a ranked team. Now I happen to think that MS is a pretty good team but maybe my proposed system would force elite level teams like Maryland or Miss St for example, to not rely on conference games against 15-25 ranked teams to pad their "top 25" record.
I've had a bigger problem with ranking systems that list top 50 wins for the same reason. Of course it's your system and your choices but why not weight wins. Give, say 50 points for a win over the No 1 team, 49 for a win over No 2, etc. down to 1 point for a win over No 50. Nothing for anything else.
Or if that seems too steep a curve then give 20 pts for a win over a top 5 team, 18 for 5-10, etc.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/09/17 2:50 pm ::: |
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linkster wrote: |
why not weight wins. Give, say 50 points for a win over the No 1 team, 49 for a win over No 2, etc. down to 1 point for a win over No 50. Nothing for anything else. |
It would be a lot more work for not much gain. Increasing the variation in win values helps teams with flukey wins more than it helps teams that are actually good. Northern Iowa would jump up based solely on beating RPI #10 Kansas State. Gonzaga would suddenly be a bubble team because they beat RPI #11 Stanford.
_________________ Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012 Posts: 5411
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Posted: 01/09/17 3:35 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
linkster wrote: |
why not weight wins. Give, say 50 points for a win over the No 1 team, 49 for a win over No 2, etc. down to 1 point for a win over No 50. Nothing for anything else. |
It would be a lot more work for not much gain. Increasing the variation in win values helps teams with flukey wins more than it helps teams that are actually good. Northern Iowa would jump up based solely on beating RPI #10 Kansas State. Gonzaga would suddenly be a bubble team because they beat RPI #11 Stanford. |
I see your point. I guess some of my motivation is the desire to see more elite level match-ups during the regular season. But earning a high seed (or just a seeding) has become the major goal, turning much of the OOC season into little more than exhibition games against weak opposition.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15691 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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Posted: 01/16/17 11:32 am ::: |
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patsweetpat wrote: |
Hey, how come my favorite team is not higher and other teams which I disfavor are not lower?! No way!!!
Sorry, pilight, I just wanted to get in the first one of those this season. I'm sure more will follow as the calendar progresses. |
Well *I* am NOT sorry, pilight, to have to complain. Kansas State? REALLY!
_________________ Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/16/17 2:10 pm ::: |
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Howee wrote: |
patsweetpat wrote: |
Hey, how come my favorite team is not higher and other teams which I disfavor are not lower?! No way!!!
Sorry, pilight, I just wanted to get in the first one of those this season. I'm sure more will follow as the calendar progresses. |
Well *I* am NOT sorry, pilight, to have to complain. Kansas State? REALLY! |
That's what the numbers say
_________________ Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63719
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63719
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Posted: 01/16/17 2:36 pm ::: |
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What did ND do to deserve to go from #2 to #1... an Oregon St reality check?
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
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patsweetpat
Joined: 14 Jul 2010 Posts: 2306 Location: Culver City, CA
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8163 Location: Heisenberg
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/16/17 6:11 pm ::: |
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Creme breaks ties among undefeated conference leaders by most wins while I use RPI. Penn is 3-0 in Ivy play while Harvard is 1-0.
However, if I did break ties his way I would also have Penn as a #15 seed.
_________________ Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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SpaceJunkie
Joined: 10 Sep 2012 Posts: 4241 Location: Minnesota
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Posted: 01/16/17 7:02 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Maryland has two top 25 wins and no top 25 games left on their schedule. That's not the resume of a #1 or #2 seed. |
I guess the difference is I'm predicting the present, not the future, but Ohio St could always become a Top-25 team though that would only guarantee one more top-25 game left.
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63719
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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Shades
Joined: 10 Jul 2006 Posts: 63719
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Posted: 01/16/17 10:31 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
SpaceJunkie wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. |
I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3. |
Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now. |
You both messed up (or your numbers did). ND lost to Tennessee. |
Or maybe I posted it this morning before that happened... |
Pilight, you know ND has been vulnerable to losses to lesser teams all year, but you decided to put ND as a #1 seed because of what your numbers told you.
Did YOU believe ND was a #1 seed this morning, and if you didn't, what's the point of this exercise?
_________________ Nnekalonians 1:14 - Thou shalt not accept that which is not earned
Last edited by Shades on 01/17/17 12:10 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/16/17 10:44 pm ::: |
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Shades wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
SpaceJunkie wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. |
I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3. |
Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now. |
You both messed up (or your numbers did). ND lost to Tennessee. |
Or maybe I posted it this morning before that happened... |
Pilight, you know ND has been vulnerable to losses to lesser teams all year, but you decided to put ND as a #1 seed despite what your numbers told you.
Did you believe ND was a #1 seed this morning, and if you didn't, what's the point of this exercise? |
The numbers put ND at #1, based on what they had done through Sunday's games and the schedule they had remaining.
All the candidates for that last #1 spot have question marks. Who would you put there instead?
_________________ Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
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FollowtheCardinalRule
Joined: 12 Oct 2011 Posts: 5153 Location: Denver
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Posted: 01/16/17 11:02 pm ::: |
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pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
SpaceJunkie wrote: |
pilight wrote: |
Shades wrote: |
I also want to know how much pat paypal'd you to put Maryland as a #3 seed. |
I'll grant that a #3 seed for the #26 RPI team without any great wins is a little high. OTOH, they are the weakest #3. |
Maryland did beat Louisville and Arizona St. My similar formula has them as the worst #3 as well, but since the top teams seem to go through more than just our simple formulas, I'm can only bet that UConn, Baylor, South Carolina, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Notre Dame would be ranked ahead of Maryland as right now. |
You both messed up (or your numbers did). ND lost to Tennessee. |
Or maybe I posted it this morning before that happened... |
Pilight, you know ND has been vulnerable to losses to lesser teams all year, but you decided to put ND as a #1 seed despite what your numbers told you.
Did you believe ND was a #1 seed this morning, and if you didn't, what's the point of this exercise? |
The numbers put ND at #1, based on what they had done through Sunday's games and the schedule they had remaining.
All the candidates for that last #1 spot have question marks. Who would you put there instead? |
Holy Coley's FIU!
Okay, in all seriousness, after today?
My 4 1 Seeds are...
UConn, Baylor, Maryland, and Mississippi State....
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 66778 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 01/17/17 9:29 am ::: |
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FollowtheCardinalRule wrote: |
My 4 1 Seeds are...
UConn, Baylor, Maryland, and Mississippi State.... |
So you don't care about strength of schedule. Just beat a bunch of creampuffs and schedule one or two decent opponents. That's worthy of a #1 seed.
_________________ Let us not deceive ourselves. Our educational institutions have proven to be no bastions of democracy.
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15691 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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Posted: 01/17/17 12:02 pm ::: |
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Okay. I comprehend that your projections here are purely stat-driven. I also believe that things will look remarkable different in March. What factors will be responsible for The Discrepancy?
_________________ Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
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