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Vulnerable Republican senate seats
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Shades



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PostPosted: 09/25/20 10:40 am    ::: Vulnerable Republican senate seats Reply Reply with quote

Unfortunately Mitch McConnell doesn’t appear to be one of the vulnerable ones, but if the Democrats can flip the Senate, at least he becomes much less relevant.
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/60PQfYzEoyc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>



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PostPosted: 09/25/20 11:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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pilight



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PostPosted: 09/25/20 12:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Democrats will take Gardner's seat in Colorado and lose Jones' in Alabama.

I'd rate seven of the others as winnable by either side; six Republican and one Democratic.

Gary Peters (Michigan) is the only other Democrat in danger. He's been steadily losing ground to Iraq War veteran John James.

The other endangered Republicans are Susan Collins (Maine), Steve Daines (Montana), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Martha McSally (Arizona), David Perdue (Georgia), and Thom Tillis (North Carolina).



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PostPosted: 09/26/20 2:43 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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Silky Johnson



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PostPosted: 10/05/20 10:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1312812320003776512

Georgia conservatives: stealing elections since (at least) 2002.



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Shades



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PostPosted: 10/08/20 10:25 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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pilight



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PostPosted: 10/08/20 10:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RCP moved McSally's seat to Lean D and Graham's to tossup



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PostPosted: 10/10/20 9:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I see the two key races as Ernst in Iowa and Tillis in North Carolina. Others could change if there is a general shift in the next 3 weeks, but most likely those will provide the answer. If either party gets both they should control the Senate.


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PostPosted: 10/30/20 9:45 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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PostPosted: 11/06/20 2:18 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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PostPosted: 11/06/20 3:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Dems got slaughtered in the congressional races and did little to nothing in the senate



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CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 11/10/20 6:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
The Dems got slaughtered in the congressional races and did little to nothing in the senate


As of Tuesday morning, the Democrats had lost a net of four seats to the Republicans. Nowhere near a slaugther (1994 was a slaughter), but the Democrats did not build on the party's majority (and it was expected that the party would gain 5-10 seats).

As for the Senate, one way to look at it is this. Right now, Republicans have 49 seats, with Democrats at 46, and Independents (both of whom caucus with Democrats at 2). Alaska would put the Republicans at 50. And lets say there is a split in the Georgia runoff elections.

So it would look like this (in my scenario):
Republicans: 51
Democrats 47:
Independents: 2

It is a vastly different scenario if, say, Collins had lost Maine and McSally had won Arizona. Whereas there is a chance for people to cross party lines - Collins (ME) and Murkowski (AK) come to mind, while others (e.g., Romney (UT)) may do so depending on the issue - it would have been very different with McSally as part of the 51 instead of Collins.


pilight



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PostPosted: 11/10/20 8:38 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

AP has the Republicans up six not counting NY-11 or NY-22. CA-21 and UT-4 are not looking good for the Dems either. Yeah, it's not 1994 but it's pretty bad considering the expectations.

As for the senate, I'll be surprised if the GOP doesn't win both the run-offs. I'd rate Warnock's chances as slim and Ossoff's as none.



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PostPosted: 11/19/20 12:01 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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PostPosted: 11/19/20 5:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Z5FSL1lm2qE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Robert Reich is a great example of the modern Democratic elite. Their position on American workers is essentially the same as the Republican elite - “fuck ‘em” but they add sanctimonious rhetoric that isn’t backed up by policy. When he was Clinton’s Secretary of LABOR he was presented with an approved H-1B (a visa allegedly only for workers who can’t be found in the USA and who allegedly must be paid prevailing wages) application for a computer programmer in which the listed wage rate was the minimum wage. Reich was not outraged at all. Just his normal Mister Rogers self, and gave a shoulder-shrug answer about the H-1B law having “no teeth”.


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PostPosted: 11/21/20 11:29 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

As long as that grifter aka Loeffler is ousted!


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PostPosted: 12/08/20 8:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

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PostPosted: 12/10/20 4:49 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
AP has the Republicans up six not counting NY-11 or NY-22. CA-21 and UT-4 are not looking good for the Dems either. Yeah, it's not 1994 but it's pretty bad considering the expectations.


It's now GOP +11 (counting IA-2) with NY-22 still pending (the Republican is ahead by 12 votes, recounts coming).



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PostPosted: 01/05/21 7:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Georgia runoff live updates
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html



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PostPosted: 01/05/21 10:51 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

NY Times projecting 95% chance Warnock and 83% chance Ossoff wins.
I hope it comes to fruition. McConnell loses power.



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PostPosted: 01/05/21 11:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
NY Times projecting 95% chance Warnock and 83% chance Ossoff wins.
I hope it comes to fruition. McConnell loses power.


Maybe.

Manchin says he won't vote to overturn the filibuster, so McConnell would have to lose 10 of his caucus to get something through. He has been remarkedly strong keeping his caucus together. Appointments will get through (there was no way McConnell was going to allow a single judge appt) and that's big, but hard to imagine anything of substance getting done.


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PostPosted: 01/06/21 4:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

At this point, Vox Media, Decision Desk HQ, and... Andrew Yang? have called both races for the Democrats. It is becoming all but a certainty...



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PostPosted: 01/06/21 4:41 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In the midst of today's sheer & utter madness in Capitols nationwide, Ossoff is now projected to beat Perdue in the final unresolved Senate race. Democrats are now projected by virtually all news & media outlets to gain control of the Senate. Hard to say the phrase 'gain control' these days, though...



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PostPosted: 01/07/21 12:36 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Now the fight moves to inside the Democratic party on whether their policies will make the Democratic donor class, or Bernie Sanders and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez more pleased by the Biden presidential term.


CamrnCrz1974



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PostPosted: 01/07/21 4:30 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
AP has the Republicans up six not counting NY-11 or NY-22. CA-21 and UT-4 are not looking good for the Dems either. Yeah, it's not 1994 but it's pretty bad considering the expectations.

As for the senate, I'll be surprised if the GOP doesn't win both the run-offs. I'd rate Warnock's chances as slim and Ossoff's as none.


And yet, both Warnock and Ossoff won, solidifying the 50-50 tie, with VP-elect Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker.

Democrats have a net gain of 3 Senate seats from the 2020 election.

I still disagree with your assessment that this was "pretty bad". Was it disappointing? Yes. Pretty bad? No.

The FiveThirtyEight model ran 40,000 simulations. The model showed Democrats with an 80 percent chance of holding between 48 and 55 seats, with an average of 51.5 seats. While 50 seats fell short of the model's average, it still means, with the wins in the two Senate runoffs in Georgia, Democrats effectively have control when President-elect Joe Biden's administration sworn in.

And Arizona and Georgia, two states that were once considered solidly Republican, both went for Joe Biden and both now have two Democratic Senators.


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