RebKell's Junkie Boards

[pilight]

Considering Atlanta's five wins have come by a combined 18 points, it seems unlikely they will win by 20.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[Randy]

I have been waiting for a big blowout win this year to convince me that the Dream are back. Hasn't happened. I thought Seattle should be a pretty easy game, but it wasn't. Basic problem is that we just can't sustain any offense for any length of time, and the defense isn't that good either. Two of our wins came against the Stars and Storm. Tulsa, of course, is struggling, but I wouldn't count on a blowout by any means.

[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 8:

@Indiana 5.5 Seattle o/u 151.5
Los Angeles 2 San Antonio o/u 154.5

My pick is Seattle-Indiana over 152. Seattle is the lowest scoring team in the WNBA, but when pushed by other teams recently they have shown a willingness to play at a quicker tempo. Indiana was frustrated by Washington in their last game but I believe they will push pace tomorrow.

San Antonio lost to LA by 5 last week in LA. Both teams are 2-8, the worst record in the WNBA. No pick on the game but take the under in attendance as neither team has been able to draw this season.

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 9:

@Washington 4.5 New York o/u 142.5

I'll Take Washington -4.5. Washington is coming off their worst effort of the year. losing 73-50 to Indiana. The Mystics scored only16 points in the second half, failing to reach double digits in either quarter. But after each of their previous three losses this season they have rebounded with double digit victories.

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 10:

@Indiana 8 San Antonio o/u 154.5
Minnesota 1.5 @Chicago o./u 157
Phoenix 7 @Seattle o/u 147

I'll stick with Indiana over although I am concerned about how they have increased their defensive pressure in the second half the last two games. I also like Minnesota over Chicago.

After 5 weeks I reviewed all the picks so far this season. My picks are 18-16-1 so far this season, or 53%. The picks by everyone else posted in this thread are 13-11-2, or 54% In each case that would represent a very small profit. Hopefully my picks will be a little better going forward.

[Luuuc]

[ClayK]

I would bet the Lynx, giving 1.5. I feel pretty confident they'll win straight up, and 1.5 isn't much of a margin.

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Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 11:

@Tulsa 4,5 Los Angeles o/u 156.5

For Tulsa Odyssey Sims' return has been hinted, but she is still listed as "out." For LA Nneka was hurt in the game against San Antonio and she is listed as questionable.
LA was awful without Nneka earlier, but they also didn't have Toliver. The Sparks have gone over 7 of their last 8 games and the last game these two teams played was 98-95, so I lean to the over, but until I know about the injuries I will pass.

[ClayK]

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 11:

@Atlanta 2.5 New York o/u 146.5
@Chicago 7.5 Connecticut o/u 155
@Phoenix 13 Seattle o/u 152
@Minnesota 14.5 San Antonio o/u 149

Connecticut continues to get no respect. Chicago is coming off a big win against Minnesota and I suspect they will be a little bit sluggish. I'll take the Sun plus the points.

Phoenix and Seattle played Friday and scored 173 points. As a result the total is 5 points higher (152 vs. 147). I think that is too big a swing. Phoenix was up 14 after the first quarter and Seattle never got closer than 6 (when Alysha Clark hit two threes in the first minute of the third quarter.) The fourth quarter was a no defense display where Seattle scored 32 to make the final more respectable. I'll take the under.

Minnesota is the largest favorite of any team this season. I suspect they will bounce back from their loss but that is too many points to give.

Next week I will be heading down to Las Vegas and Phoenix to get away from the summer heat and to see the Mercury play the Liberty. As a result I may not be able to post the odds after Wednesday.

[sigur3]

[Lumes]

[ClayK]

I'll try again, because some of these seem like good bets.

I like New York plus 2.5, Connecticut plus 7.5 and San Antonio plus 14.5.

Of course, these are all road underdogs, which is something that an experienced bettor would most likely avoid.

_________________
Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 14:

Minnesota 7 @Connecticut o/u 146.5
@Phoenix 8.5 Atlanta o/u 153

Yesterday Phoenix showed the problem with betting on large favorites. The Mercury led by 20 late in the third quarter and had pulled their starters, using a lineup of Noelle Quinn, Marta Xargay Casademont, Mistie Bass, Cayla Francis and Alex Harden. Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis hit 3 three's in the fourth quarter and Seattle was able to lose by only 10 and cover the spread. Tomorrow the first three quarters may be a little closer, but I expect that Phoenix will be able to win and cover against Atlanta. I also like the under.

Connecticut has lost three in a row and it doesn't get any easier tomorrow. I have been wrong about the Sun most of the year more often than not so I won't be playing this game but I do think that they have to at least be competitive or this season can spin out of control.

[Luuuc]

^ that is why I virtually never bet on a spread. Only ever head-to-head.
I find that over the long term, who wins vs who loses is far less unpredictable than a winning margin.

_________________
Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 15:

@New York 9 San Antonio o/u 145.5
@Chicago 5 Washington o/u 156.5
Los Angeles 1.5 @Seattle o/u 146
@Indiana 3.5 Tulsa o/u 158.5

Three day games tomorrow. Los Angeles should never be a favorite on the road so I have to take Seattle. Indiana and Tulsa both want to run and I expect the game to stay close so Indiana won't be tempted to slow down in the second half. I like the over.

[sigur3]

Hope no one lost Atl/Phx o153 when Cooper chose not to foul at the end...

[ClayK]

I sort of like Washington +5, but I've been wrong every time -- so clearly bet Chicago.

_________________
Oṃ Tāre Tuttāre Ture Svāhā

[calbearman76]

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 16:

@los Angeles 3 Atlanta o/u 153
@New York 5.5 Connecticut o/u 145.5

Los Angeles and New York are both playing back to back days, but LA is traveling back from Seattle and this is a day game. I like Atlanta. I'm always a bit fearful of taking New York over but the line looks too low. I'll take the over, but I may just bet the first half.

[sigur3]

Atlanta side +3x!!!

[calbearman76]

Odds for July 17 (directly from Las Vegas):

@Washington 3 Indiana o/u 151
Tulsa 3 @San Antonio o/u 152.5
@Minnesota 7 Chicago o/u 157

Indiana over has been good to me and I see no reason to stop now. Tulsa may not be quite what they were with Diggins but they should still be good enough to win and cover against San Antonio.

Other than the 104 degree temperature, Vegas is great. I just saw Becky Hammon's Spurs beat the Brooklyn Nets by 3 as a 1 point favorite.

[calbearman76]

[sigur3]

That Tulsa -3 side is awfully generous. Not surprised to see it moving already.