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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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 Posted: 04/21/15 8:58 am ::: |
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| NickDMB wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| NickDMB wrote: |
| By the way, Ashley Battle is another example of a player who only started 8 games (on a team far worse than this one), was a limited scorer, and lasted several years in the WNBA. |
There's a big difference between being Ashley Battle and being Dennis Rodman |
Yeah, I don't agree that she's going to be the female Dennis Rodman, which I've made pretty clear several times. But you said, flat out, "College bench players don't make it in the pros." That's not true, as I've shown, and I think that Stokes does have the potential to develop into a solid back up and hang around for several years. |
Battle is an interesting case. Played eight minutes and got cut as a rookie. That might have been the end of it, but the league expanded and she impressed Pat Coyle enough to stick in New York. Coyle continued to like Battle despite her not doing anything particularly well. When Coyle got canned, Battle was out of a job too. She got a quick look in San Antonio, getting cut early in the season, and was done for good.
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ClayK
Joined: 11 Oct 2005
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| Posted: 04/21/15 9:43 am ::: |
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So here are the ninth overall picks in recent years:
2014 Natalie Achonwa
2013 Layshia Clarendon
2012 Aston Dabo
2011 Jeannette Pohlen
2010 Chanel Mokango
2009 Quanitra Hollingsworth
2008 Amber Holt
2007 Alison Bales
2006 La'Tangela Atkinson
Stokes doesn't have to elevate very much to clear that bar ...
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 04/21/15 9:49 am ::: |
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| ClayK wrote: |
So here are the ninth overall picks in recent years:
2014 Natalie Achonwa
2013 Layshia Clarendon
2012 Aston Dabo
2011 Jeannette Pohlen
2010 Chanel Mokango
2009 Quanitra Hollingsworth
2008 Amber Holt
2007 Alison Bales
2006 La'Tangela Atkinson
Stokes doesn't have to elevate very much to clear that bar ... |
You left out
2015 Brittany Boyd
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Queenie
Joined: 18 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 04/21/15 12:51 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| NickDMB wrote: |
| By the way, Ashley Battle is another example of a player who only started 8 games (on a team far worse than this one), was a limited scorer, and lasted several years in the WNBA. |
There's a big difference between being Ashley Battle and being Dennis Rodman |
True. Ashley is a helluva better people person (which, IMO, was part of how she stuck around).
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 04/21/15 1:04 pm ::: |
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| PUmatty wrote: |
| linkster wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
| linkster wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
Doesn't matter who she's behind. College bench players don't make it in the pros. |
And how many college bench players get drafted in the 1st round? Or do you consider your evaluation talent as being better than the Liberty's? |
How many drafts are weak enough that a bench player is a first rounder? |
She got picked ahead of Harrison, a 4 year starter and an SEC POY.
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Seriously?
Harrison also had a blown ACL. That is the comparison you want to make? |
No, Harrison is expected to have a pro career after she heals.
Are you saying that every player taken after Chelsea Gray last year sucked because she had an ACL?
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linkster
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pilight
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ArtBest23
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cthskzfn
Joined: 21 Nov 2004
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pilight
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Luuuc
#NATC
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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| Posted: 04/22/15 9:34 am ::: |
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| Well if she's not the female worm, maybe she can learn to play guitar without any hands and get pretty good at it, and become the female funky worm instead.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 04/22/15 10:08 am ::: |
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| linkster wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
| linkster wrote: |
| PUmatty wrote: |
| linkster wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
Doesn't matter who she's behind. College bench players don't make it in the pros. |
And how many college bench players get drafted in the 1st round? Or do you consider your evaluation talent as being better than the Liberty's? |
How many drafts are weak enough that a bench player is a first rounder? |
She got picked ahead of Harrison, a 4 year starter and an SEC POY.
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Seriously?
Harrison also had a blown ACL. That is the comparison you want to make? |
No, Harrison is expected to have a pro career after she heals.
Are you saying that every player taken after Chelsea Gray last year sucked because she had an ACL? |
Obviously not. I am saying that where Harrison went in the first round is because of her injury, just like it was with Gray and Achonwa last year. Not being able to play for a year consistently moves players down the draft. Hell, Kelly Miller got drafted ahead of Tamika Catchings.
Of course, you know all of that.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
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| Posted: 04/22/15 10:09 am ::: |
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Stokes is interesting because her basketball body is so very visually impressive. Her Larry Johnson shoulders, her Marine sergeant barrel chest, her long arms -- they naturally seduce an observer into surmising she must have a very high ceiling of basketball talent.
Still, no one has explained how they expect such a puny college scorer from the AAC to provide any offense in the WNBA. While UConn was winning games by an NCAA record margin of 41 points per game (50 ppg in the AAC), Stokes averaged only 4.7 ppg in 19.1 mpg. Will she get anything like 19 mpg on the Liberty?
Also, no one has mentioned that Geno often went into a zone when Stokes was put in the game. She often didn't guard an opposing player human-to-human. She got lots of her blocks as a secondary help defender.
An additional issue is how well Stokes actually rebounded and blocked against quality teams with some height. I don't have time to analyze every game, but Stokes had 3 rebounds and 1 block against South Carolina, 1 and 1 against Dayton, and 2 and 0 in the second Notre Dame game.
Finally, I'm not sure I understand the relevance of Clay's list of 9th picks. Wasn't Stokes 11th?
I sincerely hope Stokes makes it, but my question would be: How often has a player stuck in the WNBA who averaged less than 5 ppg in every year of her college career?
Last edited by GlennMacGrady on 04/22/15 11:28 am; edited 1 time in total |
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004
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| Posted: 04/22/15 10:11 am ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Stokes is interesting because her basketball body is so very visually impressive. Her Larry Johnson shoulders, her Marine sergeant barrel chest, her long arms -- they naturally seduce an observer into surmising she must have a very high ceiling of basketball talent.
Still, no one has explained how they expect such a puny college scorer from the AAC to provide any offense in the WNBA. While UConn was winning games by an NCAA record margin of 41 points per game (50 ppg in the AAC), Stokes averaged only 4.7 ppg in 19.1 mpg. Will she get anything like 19 mpg on the Liberty?
Also, no one has mentioned that Geno often went into a zone when Stokes was put in the game. She often didn't guard an opposing player human-to-human. She got lots of her blocks as a secondary help defender.
An additional issue is how well Stokes actually defended and blocked against quality teams with some height. I don't have time to analyze every game, but Stokes had 3 rebounds and 1 block against South Carolina, 1 and 1 against Dayton, and 2 and 0 in the second Notre Dame game.
Finally, I'm not sure I understand the relevance of Clay's list of 9th picks. Wasn't Stokes 11th?
I sincerely hope Stokes makes it, but my question would be: How often has a player stuck in the WNBA who averaged less than 5 ppg in every year of her college career? |
Never.
I hope Stokes surprised me. The league can always use more good players. I just can't imagine why anyone would expect it to happen.
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cthskzfn
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NickDMB
Joined: 04 Mar 2015
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| Posted: 04/22/15 12:14 pm ::: |
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| GlennMacGrady wrote: |
Stokes is interesting because her basketball body is so very visually impressive. Her Larry Johnson shoulders, her Marine sergeant barrel chest, her long arms -- they naturally seduce an observer into surmising she must have a very high ceiling of basketball talent.
Still, no one has explained how they expect such a puny college scorer from the AAC to provide any offense in the WNBA. While UConn was winning games by an NCAA record margin of 41 points per game (50 ppg in the AAC), Stokes averaged only 4.7 ppg in 19.1 mpg. Will she get anything like 19 mpg on the Liberty?
Also, no one has mentioned that Geno often went into a zone when Stokes was put in the game. She often didn't guard an opposing player human-to-human. She got lots of her blocks as a secondary help defender.
An additional issue is how well Stokes actually rebounded and blocked against quality teams with some height. I don't have time to analyze every game, but Stokes had 3 rebounds and 1 block against South Carolina, 1 and 1 against Dayton, and 2 and 0 in the second Notre Dame game.
Finally, I'm not sure I understand the relevance of Clay's list of 9th picks. Wasn't Stokes 11th?
I sincerely hope Stokes makes it, but my question would be: How often has a player stuck in the WNBA who averaged less than 5 ppg in every year of her college career? |
She's pretty much at her floor in terms of her scoring potential. At UConn, she pretty much only scored off of offensive rebounds or because the other team was focused on other players. She average 7.4 points per 30 at UConn, she may be able to keep it in a similar range at the next level.
UConn went zone when Stokes came on the floor in cases where it meant going to a three big lineup. Stokes got a higher percentage of her blocks one-on-one than Stewart did.
You're relying on a small sample size here and focusing (intentionally or otherwise) on games where she had a low production. She had 18 rebounds earlier in the year against Notre Dame.
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GlennMacGrady
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| Posted: 04/22/15 12:51 pm ::: |
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| NickDMB wrote: |
She's pretty much at her floor in terms of her scoring potential. |
Nick, I don't understand the basis of such an optimistically conclusory claim. It can't be based on statistics, trends or personal observation. The claim almost sounds metaphysical.
Stokes, at best, remained on the same scoring "plane" throughout her four years, as the stats I compiled show. In fact, under the tutelage of the alleged best post coach in WCBB, Stokes actually got slightly worse on a points per minute basis during her last two years, when she was clearly facing easier competition. On the basis of these data, one could more logically claim that her stable scoring "plane" represents her ceiling rather than her floor.
| NickDMB wrote: |
| She average 7.4 points per 30 at UConn, she may be able to keep it in a similar range at the next level. |
So now you're positing that she'll stay on the same scoring plane in the WNBA but that she'll be given 30 minutes per game on the Liberty? I think it's far more likely if she maintains the same scoring rate in the W as she did at UConn, she'll get far fewer than the 19+ mpg she got at UConn--assuming that's enough to keep her in the league at all.
| NickDMB wrote: |
| You're relying on a small sample size here and focusing (intentionally or otherwise) on games where she had a low production. She had 18 rebounds earlier in the year against Notre Dame. |
Yes, I am and I said so. My methodology was nothing more than recalling the last three teams that had some decent height and played UConn relatively closely, at least for a half. The first Notre Dame game was early in the season when the Irish didn't have their best post player, NFOY Brianna Turner, and it wasn't close.
One can't deny that Stokes had excellent rebounding and block stats over the whole college season, but I haven't been convinced by personal observation or any statistical correlations that Stokes could maintain those performance rates consistently against high quality bigs. |
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ArtBest23
Joined: 02 Jul 2013
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| Posted: 04/22/15 12:59 pm ::: |
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| NickDMB wrote: |
She's pretty much at her floor in terms of her scoring potential.
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And this assumption is based on what? She played four years on a team with a short bench that played in tons of blowout wins against thoroughly overmatched opponents. There was no possible better opportunity to show her full potential. More likely she's at her ceiling than her floor.
| NickDMB wrote: |
She had 18 rebounds earlier in the year against Notre Dame. |
Without Turner playing and rebounding against 5'9" guards. The second game is far more similar to a WNBA situation. But even that is far less than what she'll face this summer consistently facing players taller than she us.
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NickDMB
Joined: 04 Mar 2015
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| Posted: 04/22/15 1:38 pm ::: |
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