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So Much for my big lead in the RPI points portion

 
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Gaucho Don



Joined: 07 Nov 2004
Posts: 339



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PostPosted: 01/23/05 7:07 pm    ::: So Much for my big lead in the RPI points portion Reply Reply with quote

What a horrible day for my picks... good thing I wasn't betting real money.


rebkell
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Joined: 17 Aug 2004
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Location: East Tennessee


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PostPosted: 01/23/05 8:11 pm    ::: Re: So Much for my big lead in the RPI points portion Reply Reply with quote

Gaucho Don wrote:
What a horrible day for my picks... good thing I wasn't betting real money.


Bad day, huh Don? I'm surprised at how well the RPI points are working, I figured they would get eaten alive, but all in all they aren't that easy ...

Cth better get in a hurry or he's not gonna have enough games to qualify for the tourney round...


Gaucho Don



Joined: 07 Nov 2004
Posts: 339



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PostPosted: 01/23/05 9:06 pm    ::: Re: So Much for my big lead in the RPI points portion Reply Reply with quote

rebkell wrote:
Gaucho Don wrote:
What a horrible day for my picks... good thing I wasn't betting real money.


Bad day, huh Don? I'm surprised at how well the RPI points are working, I figured they would get eaten alive, but all in all they aren't that easy ...

Cth better get in a hurry or he's not gonna have enough games to qualify for the tourney round...


Yeah, but I guess just about everyone had a bad day. ACELAND gained a bunch of ground on me... He's way in front, but I've only been paying real attention to the RPI Points where I'm in front (that's a nice thing about so many categories... you can just watch the one your in front on Smile ).

Anyway... I think the RPI points are working pretty well (relistically just about any halfway decent points indicator should work well for our purposes), there are some that seem obviously off, but for the most part not bad. I've only been playing about 3 out of every 4 (if my ranking points come up too close and I can't come up with a good reason that I think one or the other will overcome the system, then I just don't pick it). IOW, my ranking agrees with RPI on points a little more than 25% of the time. But also kinda shocked that by doing so I can actually be in front in that category overall, basically I've been going with a betting mentality, if I don't think I have better than 50% chance of winning the pick, I won't bet the 2 points on it Smile

Anyway, I actually had a decent day overall just sucked for the one's that we pick here. for all games I had 78% of winners correct (32-9) and 41% of games within 5 points (which makes 4 of the past 5 days I've had between 40% and 42% within 5 points of actual with the only day it didn't happen being the day with the fewest games played in that span).

Anyway, gotta run.


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