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pilight



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PostPosted: 05/03/12 2:13 pm    ::: Best draft picks ever Reply Reply with quote

http://www.swishappeal.com/2012/5/3/2996530/best-draft-picks-ever

Quote:
There were twelve players who graded out 100 or more points above average for their draft position. Not surprisingly, nine of them came from the 1999 draft. Even less surprising is who ranked #1...



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PostPosted: 05/03/12 3:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Im glad that the Storm have a draft steal and a bust on their roster Very Happy



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ClayK



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PostPosted: 05/03/12 3:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Spectacularly good story ... wonderfully done.

As always, though, any purely mathematical system has its limitations. Ann Wauters get classified as a bust because she chose not to play here very often. That certainly means she wasn't a great pick, but at the same time, she's a really good player.

A couple of players were derailed by injury so that's a bit unfair, but there are a lot of healthy players whose careers can legitimately be compared.

Again, great stuff ...



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pilight



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PostPosted: 05/03/12 3:52 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Spectacularly good story ... wonderfully done.

As always, though, any purely mathematical system has its limitations. Ann Wauters get classified as a bust because she chose not to play here very often. That certainly means she wasn't a great pick, but at the same time, she's a really good player.

A couple of players were derailed by injury so that's a bit unfair, but there are a lot of healthy players whose careers can legitimately be compared.

Again, great stuff ...


Even if Wauters played here full time she would be among the weakest #1 picks. Only Thomas and McCarville are likely to be ranked below her.



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Richyyy



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PostPosted: 05/03/12 4:03 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah, part of the point of Barnwell's system was to judge how good the pick was, not necessarily the player. That's why it only looks at success in the first few years in the league - because if the player gets better after that he/she might well not be doing it for the team that drafted them (as was indeed the case with Wauters, although the death of the Rockers obviously had a hand in that). Wauters took a while to develop into the player she eventually became.

Really interesting stuff. Arguably it actually works better for a league like the WNBA than it did for the NFL.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Dabo break the Creamer record you mention.



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psheehy



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PostPosted: 05/03/12 5:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Yeah, part of the point of Barnwell's system was to judge how good the pick was, not necessarily the player. That's why it only looks at success in the first few years in the league - because if the player gets better after that he/she might well not be doing it for the team that drafted them (as was indeed the case with Wauters, although the death of the Rockers obviously had a hand in that). Wauters took a while to develop into the player she eventually became.

Really interesting stuff. Arguably it actually works better for a league like the WNBA than it did for the NFL.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Dabo break the Creamer record you mention.


For the WNBA we also have to penalize picks for their contribution to the league. When players fall out due to injury (Stiles) or internationally competitive pay (Wauters) then the PICK should be penalized. Were Stiles or Wauters bad picks based on talent? CERTAINLY not, but they were both TERRIBLE picks based on their contributions from a league perspective.

Is it better to pick a #3 player at #1 because they will be both healthy and will play than to pick either an injured or marginally interested international player? YES!!!!!! Who cares if player A or B is way better than player C if player C is the best player who will actually PLAY FOR YOUR TEAM???!!!! Drafting is about so much more than talent in the WNBA where the salaries don't mean AUTOMATIC commitment from the players.



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PostPosted: 05/03/12 6:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wauters was a big bust for NY.

Wauters was also a big bust for SASS. Ironically, SASS traded a #1 pick and Camille Little to Atlanta for Wauters and she played great for less than 1 1/2 years before deciding to not return. Now, BOTH Little and Wauters play for Seattle (against SASS.)

Best wishes to Seattle though (but you might want to keep an eye on her.) Smile


zonetrapper



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PostPosted: 05/03/12 10:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wow - this is really interesting.


ClayK



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PostPosted: 05/04/12 10:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wauters is an interesting player ...

Her first three years in the league, she was 19, 20 and 21, and not surprisingly, the first two years weren't that good. Her third season she averaged 11 points and five rebounds and shot 55% from the field.

She was hurt in 2004, but in 2005, at age 24, she averaged 13.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg and shot 54%. In 2008, she averaged 14.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg and shot 53%.

To me, those two seasons are pretty good, but as pointed out, not comparable to some of the other top picks.

Her half season in 2009 was down somewhat from 2008, but still respectable: 12.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 55%.

But given her spotty record of showing up, she clearly was a bad No. 1 pick, which is what this is about, as was Stiles. The reason I brought this up is that the word "bust" has the connotation that the player wasn't very good, which I don't think is true in Wauters' case (though it certainly fits LaToya Thomas).



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pilight



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PostPosted: 05/04/12 10:53 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The usual question is "who could we have drafted that would have been better?" In Wauters case she ranks 10th among class of 2000 draftees in value points over the first five years. Every other #1 pick, including LaToya Thomas, is in the top 5 of her class. Wauters and McCarville are the only #1 picks outscored by non-first rounders. McCarville has one non-first rounder ahead of her, which could be dismissed as a fluke. Wauters has four, including a 4th round pick.



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PostPosted: 05/04/12 11:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Wauters may have been a bust for the team that drafted her but she's a wonderfully talented player who contributed mightily to dispatching a Lisa Leslie/Candace Parker led team from the playoffs a couple years ago. You just had to have seen her play against Lisa Leslie from 15 feet away to better appreciate why most teams would happily take on the risk/reward of having her around. If the WNBA had its own Hall of Fame, Wauters wouldn't get in it without a ticket. But like so many players I can think of who have come through the league, she could have had a steller career worthy of hall of fame consideration. The WNBA is great, but if the money was there? Look out. You'd see interest and devotion and a WNBA career being the primary career focus of all these players for whom it is clearly not now the focus of their lives.



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PostPosted: 05/04/12 12:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Well said, jammer.

Wauters is set to make a million euros next season for Galatasaray. I don't think she's losing sleep over being a "WNBA bust". Wink



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Michelle89



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PostPosted: 05/04/12 2:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

bballfan2005 wrote:
Well said, jammer.

Wauters is set to make a million euros next season for Galatasaray. I don't think she's losing sleep over being a "WNBA bust". Wink


Exactly Cool



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pilight



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PostPosted: 10/17/12 2:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How does the class of 2008 stack up?

As a whole the class produced 2219.5 value points. That's the 4th best total ever, behind 1999, 2001, and 1998. 1998's total is inflated by the lack of competition for jobs from the ABL players in their first year.

Nobody in the class of 2008 came close to being the best or worst ever pick.

The 2008 draft produced the best pick ever at positions #7 (Essence Carson), #16 (Nicky Anosike) and #25 (Leilani Mitchell). 2008 also had the best pick that wasn't an ABL player at #36 (Kimberly Beck) and #43 (Charel Allen).

The steal of the 2008 draft was Anosike, who started 122 games and made an All Star appearance from the #16 spot. She was 96.1 points above average for a #16.

The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points.



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PostPosted: 10/17/12 3:48 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

RavenDog wrote:
Wauters was a big bust for NY.

Wauters was also a big bust for SASS. Ironically, SASS traded a #1 pick and Camille Little to Atlanta for Wauters and she played great for less than 1 1/2 years before deciding to not return. Now, BOTH Little and Wauters play for Seattle (against SASS.)

Best wishes to Seattle though (but you might want to keep an eye on her.) Smile


Wauters has been a big bust for Seattle too so far.



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PostPosted: 10/17/12 4:10 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:

The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points.


How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes.



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mavcarter



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PostPosted: 10/17/12 6:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:

The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points.


How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes.


Wasn't that like four years ago?


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PostPosted: 10/17/12 6:58 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Michelle89 wrote:
bballfan2005 wrote:
Well said, jammer.

Wauters is set to make a million euros next season for Galatasaray. I don't think she's losing sleep over being a "WNBA bust". Wink


Exactly Cool


Also, Ann Wauters has played eight seasons in the WNBA, which is far longer than the average player. That's a pretty long career to be labeled as a "WNBA bust".

"Disappointment", maybe. But not a "bust", or she would've been long gone from the WNBA years ago.

http://www.wnba.com/playerfile/ann_wauters/career_stats.html


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PostPosted: 10/17/12 9:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I'm way too lazy to look it up, but Kraay has to be close to Newton as a best at her #.


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PostPosted: 10/17/12 9:20 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mavcarter wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:

The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points.


How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes.


Wasn't that like four years ago?


She also averaged in double figures the next two years. It is only the last couple of years, under Reeve, that she has not averaged in double figures. The Lynx has one of the best rosters in WNBA history, and Candice probably would have had more opportunity on virtually any other team, where she did not have Seimone in front of her. We'll see next year, when she signs with another team.


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PostPosted: 10/17/12 9:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

myrtle wrote:
I'm way too lazy to look it up, but Kraay has to be close to Newton as a best at her #.


Kraayeveld is the second best #27 pick (after Adrienne Goodson in 1999). Newton is the best #22 pick (Marla Brumfield in 2000 is a distant second). Kraay is actually more points above average for her pick than Newton, and had the second most value points in the 2005 draft (after Loree Moore) for the years studied.



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PostPosted: 10/17/12 10:08 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mannman wrote:
mavcarter wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:

The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points.


How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes.


Wasn't that like four years ago?


She also averaged in double figures the next two years. It is only the last couple of years, under Reeve, that she has not averaged in double figures. The Lynx has one of the best rosters in WNBA history, and Candice probably would have had more opportunity on virtually any other team, where she did not have Seimone in front of her. We'll see next year, when she signs with another team.


Fair enough. But out of the top four players selected, Wiggins has been the worst, IMO.


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PostPosted: 10/18/12 7:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mavcarter wrote:
mannman wrote:
mavcarter wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:

The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points.


How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes.


Wasn't that like four years ago?


She also averaged in double figures the next two years. It is only the last couple of years, under Reeve, that she has not averaged in double figures. The Lynx has one of the best rosters in WNBA history, and Candice probably would have had more opportunity on virtually any other team, where she did not have Seimone in front of her. We'll see next year, when she signs with another team.


Fair enough. But out of the top four players selected, Wiggins has been the worst, IMO.


Wasn't Hornbuckle #4? You seem to be having difficulty remembering Lynx player ranking from just last year.



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PostPosted: 10/18/12 7:19 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

mavcarter wrote:
mannman wrote:
mavcarter wrote:
Shades wrote:
pilight wrote:

The bust of the 2008 draft was Candice Wiggins, who played 140 games (starting 43) as the #3 pick. She was 43.2 points below the average #3 pick and 12th among 2008 draftees in value points.


How can a 6th woman of the year be a bust. Don't make me roll my eyes.


Wasn't that like four years ago?


She also averaged in double figures the next two years. It is only the last couple of years, under Reeve, that she has not averaged in double figures. The Lynx has one of the best rosters in WNBA history, and Candice probably would have had more opportunity on virtually any other team, where she did not have Seimone in front of her. We'll see next year, when she signs with another team.


Fair enough. But out of the top four players selected, Wiggins has been the worst, IMO.


Wasn't Hornbuckle #4? You seem to be having difficulty remembering Lynx player ranking from just last year.



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PostPosted: 10/18/12 7:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The Mercury have the top two best pick and the worst ever pick.
Drafting apparently isn't a science, it's more of a crap shoot Laughing



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