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Richyyy
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
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 Posted: 08/15/10 9:13 pm ::: Three-Way Fun? |
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Okay, now that that title got you interested, time to talk about the three-way tie again  .
Right now, if Minnesota, San Antonio and LA all finished tied, SASS are 5-4 in the head-to-head-to-head, LA are 4-3, and Minny are 3-5. With one game left between LA and Minnesota. Now to me, that seems pretty straightforward. Regardless of the result in Friday's Min-LA game, SASS and LA should go into the playoffs and Minnesota would go out, because there's no way they can catch either of the others.
However, I vaguely remember p_d saying something about the three-way tie-break deciding the top team, then starting over with the two-way tie-break to decide who comes next. So say LA beat Minnesota on Friday, but the rest of the results through the week bring about a three-way tie. That leaves the head-to-head-to-head looking like this:
LA 5-3
SASS 5-4
Min 3-6
Again, to me that looks like the Lynx should be done. But if the three-way decides LA finish third in the conference, and then they re-start with the two-way tie-break between the remaining teams, Minnesota have the edge on San Antonio 3-2 on their head-to-head.
So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie?
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Nerd2
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| Posted: 08/15/10 9:19 pm ::: Re: Three-Way Fun? |
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| Richyyy wrote: |
Okay, now that that title got you interested, time to talk about the three-way tie again .
Right now, if Minnesota, San Antonio and LA all finished tied, SASS are 5-4 in the head-to-head-to-head, LA are 4-3, and Minny are 3-5. With one game left between LA and Minnesota. Now to me, that seems pretty straightforward. Regardless of the result in Friday's Min-LA game, SASS and LA should go into the playoffs and Minnesota would go out, because there's no way they can catch either of the others.
However, I vaguely remember p_d saying something about the three-way tie-break deciding the top team, then starting over with the two-way tie-break to decide who comes next. So say LA beat Minnesota on Friday, but the rest of the results through the week bring about a three-way tie. That leaves the head-to-head-to-head looking like this:
LA 5-3
SASS 5-4
Min 3-6
Again, to me that looks like the Lynx should be done. But if the three-way decides LA finish third in the conference, and then they re-start with the two-way tie-break between the remaining teams, Minnesota have the edge on San Antonio 3-2 on their head-to-head.
So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie? |
I was confused by that too. Currently, the 3 way standings are : LA (4-3), SAN (5-4), MIN (3-5) so if it was used to knock a team out and reapply, it would either be LA, MIN, SAN (top out, then h2h tiebreak) or SAN, LA, MIN (bottom out first, then h2h). But the .com standings seem like they are going purely by the h2h % between the 3 (LA, SAN, MIN).
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p_d_swanson
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| Posted: 08/15/10 9:23 pm ::: |
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| Richyyy wrote: |
| So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie? |
I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th...
| Quote: |
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA
2. Tiebreak Procedure.
c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).
(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.
(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.
(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.
(5) Coin toss. |
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gpark33
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| Posted: 08/15/10 9:28 pm ::: |
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| Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right?
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mozzie
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| Posted: 08/15/10 9:31 pm ::: |
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| p_d_swanson wrote: |
| Quote: |
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA
2. Tiebreak Procedure.
c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).
(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.
(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.
(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.
(5) Coin toss. |
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So through today's games that means LA is #3 and Minnesota is #4.
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Nerd2
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| Posted: 08/15/10 9:35 pm ::: |
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| p_d_swanson wrote: |
| Richyyy wrote: |
| So help me out here, someone who knows what's going on. Would Minnesota really hop over San Antonio despite being a clear third in the theoretical three-way tie? |
I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th...
| Quote: |
K. PLAYOFFS/TIEBREAK FORMULA
2. Tiebreak Procedure.
c. More Than Two Teams Tied. As many teams as possible will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step (1).
(1) Better winning percentage among all head-to-head games involving tied teams.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams within conference.
(3) Better winning percentage against all teams with a .500 or better record at the end of the season.
(4) Better point differential in games involving tied teams.
(5) Coin toss. |
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Actually, that says to me "as many teams as possible are eliminated at any step." Since currently the scores are LA (4-3), SAN (5-4), MIN (3-5), the .com standings are set up as LA, then SAN, then MIN. It suggests that since there is a clear ranking between the 3 (meaning no two are still tied after laying this out) then you can use this as the basis for all three. That means that if LA loses against MIN, it would be SAN (5-4), LA (4-4) and MIN (4-5) and this is how it would end in the rankings. Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct.
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 08/15/10 9:39 pm ::: |
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| mozzie wrote: |
| So through today's games that means LA is #3 and Minnesota is #4. |
'If the season ended today...', as the saying goes, yes, if you accept p_d's interpretation. LA win the three-way, then Minny win the two-way over SASS. Of course, the bizarre thing is that remaining game. If Minnesota win, LA drop to 4-4 in the three-way, which means SASS now finish top of the three-way tie, and LA would then win the remaining two-way tie over Minnesota.
I don't think there's any scenario in which Minnesota would actually be better off overall just throwing the game against LA, but it's bizarre that winning a game would actually hurt them in a potential ultimate tie-break.
| gpark33 wrote: |
| Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right? |
Yes. Win all three games you have left, you're in. That applies to all three teams.
| Nerd2 wrote: |
| Actually, that says to me "as many teams as possible are eliminated at any step." |
I'll throw my hat into the ring and say you could read it either way .
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Nerd2
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| Posted: 08/15/10 9:40 pm ::: |
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| gpark33 wrote: |
| Is it safe to say everyone holds their own fate? At most, two of the three teams could win out (due to a head to head with Minny and LA). If two of them do win out, they make it, right? |
That's what it seems to me. If Minny wins out then they will have 19 losses to LA's 20 losses and SAN will also have 19 losses. If LA wins out they will have 19 losses and MIN 20 losses with SAN at 19 losses. Bottom line is Minny needs one more win than whatever LA gets and the same # as whatever SAN gets. If they do that, they are in. Any less than that and they are out.
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Nerd2
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 08/15/10 10:17 pm ::: |
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I'll happily ignore the .com's standings. This is the same page that didn't signify Seattle as anything way beyond the stage at which you could calculate they'd won the conference on one hand.
| Nerd2 wrote: |
| There are a couple of ways that losing to LA could still let MIN get into the playoffs but it would involve getting help from other teams. |
Yes, but my point was that I don't think there's any real way that losing to LA would be better than just beating LA. Because it only helps if you fall into a 3-way tie (if we were going with p_d's interpretation). Beat LA, and you just avoid the three-way anyway by finishing above them on record.
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p_d_swanson
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| Posted: 08/16/10 9:19 am ::: |
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| Nerd2 wrote: |
| Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct. |
Am told this morning that your version is the accurate one...
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Nerd2
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Nerd2
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Nerd2
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p_d_swanson
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| Posted: 08/17/10 4:27 am ::: |
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| Nerd2 wrote: |
| Minnesota really needs to beat LA. I think both Minnesota and LA will lose its other two so that Thursday game is the key one. |
On the other hand, should San Antonio go winless this week, the Lynx will qualify regardless of their own results...
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Force10rulz
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p_d_swanson
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| Posted: 08/17/10 4:48 am ::: |
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August Standings:
| Code: |
East W L Pct GB
----------- - - ----- ---
New York 6 0 1.000 -
Indiana 5 2 .714 1.5
Washington 5 2 .714 1.5
Atlanta 2 4 .333 4
Connecticut 2 5 .286 4.5
Chicago 1 4 .200 4.5
West W L Pct GB
----------- - - ----- ---
Los Angeles 4 2 .667 -
Minnesota 5 3 .625 -
Phoenix 3 4 .429 1.5
Seattle 3 4 .429 1.5
San Antonio 2 4 .333 2
Tulsa 1 5 .167 3 |
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RI_Sun_Fan
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| Posted: 08/21/10 12:22 am ::: |
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| Bump
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pilight
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| Posted: 08/21/10 12:33 am ::: |
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| p_d_swanson wrote: |
| I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th... |
If this is true, then the LA game tomorrow has no bearing on whether or not Minnesota makes the playoffs. The Sparks would win a three way tie, leaving Minnesota two win a two way over the SASS.
| Nerd2 wrote: |
| Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct. |
That's a completely nonsensical way to tiebreak. Why on earth would a tie for fourth between San Antonio and Minnesota be broken based on how well they did against LA?
The three way tiebreak is for third place. Once that's broken in LA's favor, their results shouldn't affect the remaining two way tie for 4th.
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RI_Sun_Fan
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| Posted: 08/21/10 12:41 am ::: |
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In a three-way tie, the order would be determined by a head-to-head total of the involved teams. MN’s record vs. SA and LA; LA’s record vs. MN and SA; SA’s record vs. LA and MN, the Lynx would miss the playoffs by virtue of LA’s 5-3 record vs. SA/MN and SA’s 5-4 record vs. LA/MN. The Lynx are a combined 3-6 vs. LA (0-4) and SA (3-2) this year.
That is what the league is going with, since you can rank LA/SA/MN distinctly (LA clear first, SA clear second, and MN clear third) you rank all three and use that order instead of going to a head to head between second and third.
(not my rules)
See Notable at bottom of this page:
http://www.wnba.com/lynx/news/lynx_playoff_chances_2010_08_17.html
Last edited by RI_Sun_Fan on 08/21/10 12:46 am; edited 1 time in total |
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pilight
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| Posted: 08/21/10 12:45 am ::: |
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| I hope it does end in a three way tie, just so we can have some sort of precedent to go by.
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Nerd2
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| Posted: 08/21/10 12:46 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| p_d_swanson wrote: |
| I believe this is correct in your scenario, as the tie for 3rd place would be broken first and then the two remaining teams would be compared for 4th... |
If this is true, then the LA game tomorrow has no bearing on whether or not Minnesota makes the playoffs. The Sparks would win a three way tie, leaving Minnesota two win a two way over the SASS.
| Nerd2 wrote: |
| Conversely, if LA wins it would be LA (5-3), SAN (5-4) and MIN (3-6). Bottom line is that MIN would lose any 3 way tie-break or a 2-way tiebreak with LA if this interpretation is correct. |
That's a completely nonsensical way to tiebreak. Why on earth would a tie for fourth between San Antonio and Minnesota be broken based on how well they did against LA?
The three way tiebreak is for third place. Once that's broken in LA's favor, their results shouldn't affect the remaining two way tie for 4th. |
It's the WNBA! of course it's nonsensical!
Actually, it is perfectly logical. It is a 3 way tie. You need a way to rank these teams and the next way they have determined is the winning percentage for the teams as they play each other. In other words, a head 2 head 2 head matchup. Since one of the other tiebreaks is how you do against all other teams in the conference, how is this worse if you just match how you do against the other teams involved in the tiebreak? It's no less logical than one of the other tiebreaks where you match the winning percentages against any other team with > .500 record. Or, when all else fails, a coin toss.
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pilight
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| Posted: 08/21/10 12:53 am ::: |
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| Nerd2 wrote: |
| It's the WNBA! of course it's nonsensical! |
Expect Nonsense!
| Quote: |
| Actually, it is perfectly logical. It is a 3 way tie. You need a way to rank these teams and the next way they have determined is the winning percentage for the teams as they play each other. In other words, a head 2 head 2 head matchup. Since one of the other tiebreaks is how you do against all other teams in the conference, how is this worse if you just match how you do against the other teams involved in the tiebreak? It's no less logical than one of the other tiebreaks where you match the winning percentages against any other team with > .500 record. Or, when all else fails, a coin toss. |
It's a three way for third, which would be broken in favor of the Sparks. We all agree on that.
Once third is determined, we're left with a two way tie for 4th. Minnesota ought to win such a tie, as they were 3-2 against the SASS. Apparently they won't, however, because they struggled against LA.
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RI_Sun_Fan
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| Posted: 08/21/10 12:58 am ::: |
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| I think the league views it as a three way tie for thrid, fourth and fifth. Since you can rank the three teams third, fourth and fifth using the same criterion, then use it to rank all three.
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Nerd2
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| Posted: 08/21/10 1:02 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Nerd2 wrote: |
| It's the WNBA! of course it's nonsensical! |
Expect Nonsense!
| Quote: |
| Actually, it is perfectly logical. It is a 3 way tie. You need a way to rank these teams and the next way they have determined is the winning percentage for the teams as they play each other. In other words, a head 2 head 2 head matchup. Since one of the other tiebreaks is how you do against all other teams in the conference, how is this worse if you just match how you do against the other teams involved in the tiebreak? It's no less logical than one of the other tiebreaks where you match the winning percentages against any other team with > .500 record. Or, when all else fails, a coin toss. |
It's a three way for third, which would be broken in favor of the Sparks. We all agree on that.
Once third is determined, we're left with a two way tie for 4th. Minnesota ought to win such a tie, as they were 3-2 against the SASS. Apparently they won't, however, because they struggled against LA. |
But, but, why are we arguing about this when the WNBA employees have already asked the league how it is worked out? Pelton's word is the word of the Storm organization and I haven't known him to be wrong once he pops it onto the Storm website. Plus, PD has also verified it.
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pilight
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| Posted: 08/21/10 1:13 am ::: |
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| Nerd2 wrote: |
| But, but, why are we arguing about this when the WNBA employees have already asked the league how it is worked out? Pelton's word is the word of the Storm organization and I haven't known him to be wrong once he pops it onto the Storm website. Plus, PD has also verified it. |
You've seen wnba.com, right?
I would not be at all surprised to see the league change their mind between now and Sunday.
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Nerd2
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| Posted: 08/21/10 1:21 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| Nerd2 wrote: |
| But, but, why are we arguing about this when the WNBA employees have already asked the league how it is worked out? Pelton's word is the word of the Storm organization and I haven't known him to be wrong once he pops it onto the Storm website. Plus, PD has also verified it. |
You've seen wnba.com, right?
I would not be at all surprised to see the league change their mind between now and Sunday. |
Actually, the standings have followed the 3 way tie scenario consistently thoughout which is mentioned somewhere in the threads. I think the website is a poor reflection of the league but that's more to do with crappy and lazy web design. I think the league itself has had these numbers out there for a while and all sorts of if-then-else scenarios ready.
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p_d_swanson
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| Posted: 08/21/10 1:29 am ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
You've seen wnba.com, right?
I would not be at all surprised to see the league change their mind between now and Sunday. |
The unofficial rule of thumb has historically been whichever interpretation most benefits the Sparks is the one they use...
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Nerd2
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RI_Sun_Fan
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| Posted: 08/21/10 2:31 am ::: |
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| Cute, although I think the Sparks would benefit more from a lottery pick (especially #1) than making the play-offs this year
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Nerd2
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| Posted: 08/21/10 2:53 am ::: |
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| RI_Sun_Fan wrote: |
| Cute, although I think the Sparks would benefit more from a lottery pick (especially #1) than making the play-offs this year |
Not according to Coach Thompson.
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pilight
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| Posted: 08/21/10 8:46 am ::: |
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Here's something else interesting...
If New York and Indiana both lose their last game, both teams will have the same conference record and are 2-2 head-to-head. The Fever would hold the tiebreaker based on record against teams .500 or better. If they both win, the Lib would have a better conference record and would win a tiebreak over Indy.
That means if all three of Washington, New York, and Indiana lose we'll have a similar situation in the East. Washington would be 6-3, New York 4-5, and Indiana 3-5 in the three way head-to-head but Indiana would have the advantage in a two way over New York.
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StevenHW
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Queenie
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| Posted: 08/21/10 11:47 am ::: |
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| Stat wonks- is there a scenario where the Liberty beating the Sun is actually harmful to their chances in a tie-break with Indiana and/or Washington?
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pilight
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| Posted: 08/21/10 11:53 am ::: |
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| Queenie wrote: |
| Stat wonks- is there a scenario where the Liberty beating the Sun is actually harmful to their chances in a tie-break with Indiana and/or Washington? |
No. Losing to the Sun would be harmful in a two-way break against Indy. The Lib lose the break against Washington in all scenarios.
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mekanos
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| Posted: 08/22/10 12:32 pm ::: |
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The .com
| Quote: |
For East Seedings
If WAS, NY and IND all win, there will be a three-way tie. Seedings would be #1. WAS, #2. NY and #3 IND because in head-to head among the three teams WAS will be 6-3, NY 4-5 and IND 3-5. |
.com seems to say in a 3-way tie, all 3 positions are determined at the same time by the 3-way tie rule.
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mekanos
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| Posted: 08/22/10 12:47 pm ::: |
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And for the West .com says:
| Quote: |
For West Seeings:
If SA loses and MIN wins, SA, LA and MIN will be tied at 13-21. LA would finish #3, SA #4 by virtue of head-to-head record among the three teams... |
Don't quite agree with this ruling.
Since MIN has already been eliminated and the playoff race for seeds #3 and #4 is only between SAS and LA, don't agree there should be a 3-way tie-breaking rule applied to that one.
Should be head-2-head with SAS winning it for the #3 spot (for the quoted scenario).
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pilight
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| Posted: 08/22/10 12:53 pm ::: |
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| mekanos wrote: |
And for the West .com says:
| Quote: |
For West Seeings:
If SA loses and MIN wins, SA, LA and MIN will be tied at 13-21. LA would finish #3, SA #4 by virtue of head-to-head record among the three teams... |
Don't quite agree with this ruling.
Since MIN has already been eliminated and the playoff race for seeds #3 and #4 is only between SAS and LA, don't agree there should be a 3-way tie-breaking rule applied to that one.
Should be head-2-head with SAS winning it for the #3 spot (for the quoted scenario). |
The only reason Minnesota is eliminated is because they would apply the 3-way tie breaking rule.
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mekanos
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| Posted: 08/22/10 2:56 pm ::: |
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| pilight wrote: |
| mekanos wrote: |
And for the West .com says:
| Quote: |
For West Seeings:
If SA loses and MIN wins, SA, LA and MIN will be tied at 13-21. LA would finish #3, SA #4 by virtue of head-to-head record among the three teams... |
Don't quite agree with this ruling.
Since MIN has already been eliminated and the playoff race for seeds #3 and #4 is only between SAS and LA, don't agree there should be a 3-way tie-breaking rule applied to that one.
Should be head-2-head with SAS winning it for the #3 spot (for the quoted scenario). |
The only reason Minnesota is eliminated is because they would apply the 3-way tie breaking rule. |
Yes, I was aware that it seems that way, but ...
The doc-com can't both have MIN eliminated from the playoffs AND eligible for the 3-way tie rule. On dot-com Yesterday:
Minnesota o 12 21 o-Eliminated from Playoffs
To me, that breaks the spirit (if not the letter) of the rules posted above [K.2.c] to eliminate teams from the tie-breaking process. If its not clear, they (WNBA rule-makers) should add (6) A team that is eliminated (i.e. has no chance to win any tie-breakers according to the rules above in any scenarios), will participate no further in tie-breaking process.
Again, most everyone including the WNBA via their posted standings already have MIN as eliminated, as they should. So my read is MIN then should no longer be involved in tie-breakers.
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Richyyy
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| Posted: 08/22/10 3:05 pm ::: |
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| mekanos wrote: |
| The doc-com can't both have MIN eliminated from the playoffs AND eligible for the 3-way tie rule. |
Of course they can. All 'eliminated from the playoffs' means is that in any possible theoretical scenario, they still end up outside the top four. That's all it means at any stage in the season. Just because they're in that position doesn't mean you remove them from any future calculations.
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braveniler58
Joined: 30 May 2007
Posts: 10201
Location: Washington, DC / Gilbert, Arizona
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| Posted: 08/22/10 3:06 pm ::: |
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| mekanos wrote: |
| pilight wrote: |
| mekanos wrote: |
And for the West .com says:
| Quote: |
For West Seeings:
If SA loses and MIN wins, SA, LA and MIN will be tied at 13-21. LA would finish #3, SA #4 by virtue of head-to-head record among the three teams... |
Don't quite agree with this ruling.
Since MIN has already been eliminated and the playoff race for seeds #3 and #4 is only between SAS and LA, don't agree there should be a 3-way tie-breaking rule applied to that one.
Should be head-2-head with SAS winning it for the #3 spot (for the quoted scenario). |
The only reason Minnesota is eliminated is because they would apply the 3-way tie breaking rule. |
Yes, I was aware that it seems that way, but ...
The doc-com can't both have MIN eliminated from the playoffs AND eligible for the 3-way tie rule. On dot-com Yesterday:
Minnesota o 12 21 o-Eliminated from Playoffs
To me, that breaks the spirit (if not the letter) of the rules posted above [K.2.c] to eliminate teams from the tie-breaking process. If its not clear, they (WNBA rule-makers) should add (6) A team that is eliminated (i.e. has no chance to win any tie-breakers according to the rules above in any scenarios), will participate no further in tie-breaking process.
Again, most everyone including the WNBA via their posted standings already have MIN as eliminated, as they should. So my read is MIN then should no longer be involved in tie-breakers. |
The reason Minnesota is marked as eliminated from the playoffs is because no matter what happens, they aren't going to make it. A three-way tie with San Antonio, Los Angeles, and Minnesota is still possible, and they'll have to break ties -- but Minnesota will lose any possible tie-breakers; thus why they've been eliminated.
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 08/22/10 3:06 pm ::: |
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| I agree with you, Mekanos, except on the other end. I don't think Minnesota should be out of the playoffs.
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