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How old is the WNBA?
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pilight



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PostPosted: 09/06/17 4:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PUmatty wrote:
ClayK wrote:
Thanks pilight ...

As far as athletes go, the evidence in all sports is pretty clear: Don't trust anyone over 27.


Which is below the average age of the two best teams in the league.


Stars peak at an average of age 27 like anyone, but they are often better than most players even after their peak. Nobody with any sense would suggest Carolyn Swords is better than Sylvia Fowles just because Swords is 27 and Fowles is 31.



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PostPosted: 09/07/17 9:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
PUmatty wrote:
ClayK wrote:
Thanks pilight ...

As far as athletes go, the evidence in all sports is pretty clear: Don't trust anyone over 27.


Which is below the average age of the two best teams in the league.


Stars peak at an average of age 27 like anyone, but they are often better than most players even after their peak. Nobody with any sense would suggest Carolyn Swords is better than Sylvia Fowles just because Swords is 27 and Fowles is 31.


To expand on my misleading post ... in terms of trading for talent, or relying on talent, expecting improvement after age 27 is less likely to be justified than expecting improvement before age 27.



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pilight



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PostPosted: 10/08/17 11:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Average Age of the All WNBA Teams

Code:
year        avg        30+      under 25

1997        28.2        4         5
1998        29.5        6         1
1999        27.3        2         4
2000        28.2        3         1
2001        27.6        3         1
2002        26.8        2         3
2003        25.1        2         7
2004        26.4        2         4
2005        28.5        4         3
2006        27.7        3         3
2007        26.7        2         2
2008        27.6        2         2
2009        28.6        3         1
2010        26.5        2         4
2011        27.5        3         2
2012        27.0        2         2
2013        27.6        3         3
2014        26.6        3         3
2015        27.3        1         1
2016        27.6        3         2
2017        27.8        3         2



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PostPosted: 08/20/18 5:55 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

2018 Update






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PostPosted: 09/13/18 9:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Average age of the All WNBA teams

Code:
year        avg        30+      under 25

1997        28.2        4         5
1998        29.5        6         1
1999        27.3        2         4
2000        28.2        3         1
2001        27.6        3         1
2002        26.8        2         3
2003        25.1        2         7
2004        26.4        2         4
2005        28.5        4         3
2006        27.7        3         3
2007        26.7        2         2
2008        27.6        2         2
2009        28.6        3         1
2010        26.5        2         4
2011        27.5        3         2
2012        27.0        2         2
2013        27.6        3         3
2014        26.6        3         3
2015        27.3        1         1
2016        27.6        3         2
2017        27.8        3         2
2018        28.5        2         1



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PostPosted: 09/11/19 8:15 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

2019 update






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PostPosted: 09/12/19 9:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That's a lot of data ...

And it's pretty clear, just like in other sports, that 27 is the prime age -- which means that after 27, the odds of decline are much greater than the odds of improvement.



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SDHoops



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PostPosted: 09/12/19 9:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
That's a lot of data ...

And it's pretty clear, just like in other sports, that 27 is the prime age -- which means that after 27, the odds of decline are much greater than the odds of improvement.

Tell that to the human super sonic aka Sue Bird! Wink


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PostPosted: 09/12/19 12:57 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
That's a lot of data ...

And it's pretty clear, just like in other sports, that 27 is the prime age -- which means that after 27, the odds of decline are much greater than the odds of improvement.


A significant driver of roster construction is the salary cap. In order to pay older stars, you have to keep some younger players around who are on rookie contracts. Also, rebuilding teams tend to load up on young players based on potential rather than their immediate ability to contribute. Both those factors reflect a bias toward youth that has nothing to do with optimal performance.



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PostPosted: 09/12/19 1:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Phoenix has 2.99 years on the second oldest team. Shocked Dream are pretty old for a lottery team.



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PostPosted: 09/12/19 1:56 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Randy wrote:
Phoenix has 2.99 years on the second oldest team. Shocked Dream are pretty old for a lottery team.


Atlanta only has two players over 30 who played more than three seconds; Breland & Montgomery. Both are replaceable.

Phoenix used eight players over 30. Only Taurasi was under 250 minutes.



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PostPosted: 09/12/19 4:17 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

In sports with a bias toward optimal performance, the peak age is 27. Bill James was the first to work this out a long time ago, with more than a century's worth of data points.

Some players, of course, continue to improve after age 27, but there's no way to tell who those players are in advance. Your best pure talent strategy is to load up with players between 25 and 28 because that's the overlap between physical ability and game and personal maturity.



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PostPosted: 10/07/19 8:55 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Average Age of the All WNBA Teams

Code:
year        avg        30+      under 25

1997        28.2        4         5
1998        29.5        6         1
1999        27.3        2         4
2000        28.2        3         1
2001        27.6        3         1
2002        26.8        2         3
2003        25.1        2         7
2004        26.4        2         4
2005        28.5        4         3
2006        27.7        3         3
2007        26.7        2         2
2008        27.6        2         2
2009        28.6        3         1
2010        26.5        2         4
2011        27.5        3         2
2012        27.0        2         2
2013        27.6        3         3
2014        26.6        3         3
2015        27.3        1         1
2016        27.6        3         2
2017        27.8        3         2
2018        28.5        2         1
2019        27.0        1         1



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PostPosted: 10/07/19 9:16 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Average Age of the All WNBA Teams

Code:
year        avg        30+      under 25

1997        28.2        4         5
1998        29.5        6         1
1999        27.3        2         4
2000        28.2        3         1
2001        27.6        3         1
2002        26.8        2         3
2003        25.1        2         7
2004        26.4        2         4
2005        28.5        4         3
2006        27.7        3         3
2007        26.7        2         2
2008        27.6        2         2
2009        28.6        3         1
2010        26.5        2         4
2011        27.5        3         2
2012        27.0        2         2
2013        27.6        3         3
2014        26.6        3         3
2015        27.3        1         1
2016        27.6        3         2
2017        27.8        3         2
2018        28.5        2         1
2019        27.0        1         1


This is true across all sports, which is why you see more and more younger players and fewer and fewer 30+.

Also, they did a study on baseball umpires, and found that the older umpires made more mistakes than the younger ones.

Life is cruel ...



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PostPosted: 10/07/19 6:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

For what it’s worth: I am 34 and playing the best basketball of my life and am I. The best shape I have ever been. Granted, I don’t have the wear and tear of a professional athlete, but in the right circumstances, age ain’t nothing but a number.


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PostPosted: 10/08/19 9:12 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

PickledGinger wrote:
For what it’s worth: I am 34 and playing the best basketball of my life and am I. The best shape I have ever been. Granted, I don’t have the wear and tear of a professional athlete, but in the right circumstances, age ain’t nothing but a number.


I was a much better player (softball, basketball, flag football) in my 30s than in my 20s, but that was mostly mental. And I was in better shape because I had started lifting, etc.

But most professional athletes are in excellent shape and have been lifting since (at least) college.

The margin for error at that level is very, very small, and between two well-conditioned professionals, the extra explosion and ability to recover from minor bumps quickly is, as the numbers show, significant.



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