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pilight



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PostPosted: 09/15/11 12:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The league set a new record high for weighted average age. The mean age is the third highest ever. The percentage of players under 30 is the second lowest since the 2000 expansion.

These are not good trends, and they're directly attributable to the 11 person roster.

Code:
Year     mean age     median age    weighted average     % under 30

1997      26.51          25.5             27.22             74.2
1998      26.31          26               26.91             75.6
1999      26.64          25               27.29             75.3
2000      26.07          25               26.51             81.4
2001      26.09          25               26.77             80.2
2002      26.22          25               26.74             78.9
2003      26.68          26               27.21             79.1
2004      26.13          25               26.75             81.7
2005      26.10          25               26.99             80.3
2006      25.98          25               26.51             79.7
2007      26.15          25               26.68             79.7
2008      26.08          25               26.85             81.3
2009      26.49          26               27.07             78.0
2010      26.50          26               27.32             80.6
2011      26.63          26               27.34             78.9



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PostPosted: 10/08/11 10:22 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

GlennMacGrady wrote:
What would we expect to see if we correlated age with a performance stat such as scoring or rebounding -- a slope, a bell curve, ???


I did All WNBA teams...

Code:
year        avg        30+      under 25

1997        28.2        4         5
1998        29.5        6         1
1999        27.3        2         4
2000        28.2        3         1
2001        27.6        3         1
2002        26.8        2         3
2003        25.1        2         7
2004        26.4        2         4
2005        28.5        4         3
2006        27.7        3         3
2007        26.7        2         2
2008        27.6        2         2
2009        28.6        3         1
2010        26.5        2         4
2011        27.5        3         2


Other than a couple of outliers, the average has remained very consistent between 26 and 28



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PostPosted: 10/24/11 6:40 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Decided to run the averages for championship teams. Since the end of the Comets dynasty, only a couple of outliers have been more than a year off the league average...

Code:
Season      weighted average        weighted champ    diff

1997             27.22                  29.17         +1.95
1998             26.91                  29.14         +2.23
1999             27.29                  29.68         +2.39
2000             26.51                  29.58         +3.07
2001             26.77                  26.14         -0.63
2002             26.74                  26.93         +0.19
2003             27.21                  24.17         -3.04
2004             26.75                  26.82         +0.07
2005             26.99                  26.40         -0.59
2006             26.51                  26.73         +0.22
2007             26.68                  26.59         -0.09
2008             26.85                  28.01         +1.16
2009             27.07                  26.55         -0.52
2010             27.32                  27.75         +0.43
2011             27.34                  27.73         +0.39



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PostPosted: 10/24/11 7:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Since the demise of the veteran Comets, all of the numbers validate Bill James' huge study of baseball players: The athletic prime year is age 27 (though obviously there are exceptions).

In fact, in baseball circles, great performances can be, and are, somewhat dismissed as "age 27 seasons."



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PostPosted: 10/24/11 7:32 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Since the demise of the veteran Comets, all of the numbers validate Bill James' huge study of baseball players: The athletic prime year is age 27 (though obviously there are exceptions).

In fact, in baseball circles, great performances can be, and are, somewhat dismissed as "age 27 seasons."


It doesn't look good for the Lynx repeat chances, as they have their age heavily concentrated in their starters. McWilliams is 40, of course. Whalen and Brunson will be 30 next season. Augustus is 27 now.



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PostPosted: 10/24/11 9:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Pilight, why is the 2010 season considered "incomplete"?? I'm surprised you don't have 2011 up there! LOL!



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PostPosted: 10/24/11 10:04 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Howee wrote:
Pilight, why is the 2010 season considered "incomplete"?? I'm surprised you don't have 2011 up there! LOL!


b/c that post happened in July of 2010. Look further down the thread for more recent data.



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PostPosted: 10/24/11 11:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Since the demise of the veteran Comets, all of the numbers validate Bill James' huge study of baseball players: The athletic prime year is age 27 (though obviously there are exceptions).

In fact, in baseball circles, great performances can be, and are, somewhat dismissed as "age 27 seasons."


Hmm. Women have a longer life-expectancy than men, so I wonder if the peak age would be a little later for them.



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PostPosted: 10/24/11 11:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FS02 wrote:
ClayK wrote:
Since the demise of the veteran Comets, all of the numbers validate Bill James' huge study of baseball players: The athletic prime year is age 27 (though obviously there are exceptions).

In fact, in baseball circles, great performances can be, and are, somewhat dismissed as "age 27 seasons."


Hmm. Women have a longer life-expectancy than men, so I wonder if the peak age would be a little later for them.


The evidence doesn't support that theory.



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PostPosted: 10/25/11 9:24 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Howee wrote:
Pilight, why is the 2010 season considered "incomplete"?? I'm surprised you don't have 2011 up there! LOL!


b/c that post happened in July of 2010. Look further down the thread for more recent data.


Duh on me. Razz



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PostPosted: 09/25/12 1:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update for 2012


Code:
Year     mean age     median age    weighted average     % under 30

1997      26.51          25.5             27.22             74.2
1998      26.31          26               26.91             75.6
1999      26.64          25               27.29             75.3
2000      26.07          25               26.51             81.4
2001      26.09          25               26.77             80.2
2002      26.22          25               26.74             78.9
2003      26.68          26               27.21             79.1
2004      26.13          25               26.75             81.7
2005      26.10          25               26.99             80.3
2006      25.98          25               26.51             79.7
2007      26.15          25               26.68             79.7
2008      26.08          25               26.85             81.3
2009      26.49          26               27.07             78.0
2010      26.50          26               27.32             80.6
2011      26.63          26               27.34             78.9
2012      26.98          26               27.20             72.6



The mean age is the highest in league history. The percentage of players who are under 30 is off the scales low. The weighted average dropped a bit thanks to many veteran injuries and the tankeriffic Merc.



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PostPosted: 09/25/12 2:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The drop off in players under 30 is simply due to the 11 player roster limit. Teams will keep a veteran player(i.e. Ashley Robinson, Nakia Sanford, Erin Thorn) instead of an underdeveloped rookie. Those 12th & 13th spots were usually to develop younger players for coaches that thought there was potential.



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PostPosted: 09/25/12 3:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

At the same time, though, note that the average age, and average weighted age, has barely changed at all. More teams and bigger rosters did not result in any sort of youth movement. The best players still play, and they're still around 27.

(The last is just more proof of the theory that athletic ability peaks at age 27 ... there are exceptions, but in baseball, the "age 27 season" is so notable as an outlier and peak performance that it's often discounted by stats-oriented GMs when they sign players to long-term contracts.)



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PostPosted: 09/17/13 11:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

2013 update

Code:
Year     mean age     median age    weighted average  % under 30

1997      26.51          25.5             27.22             74.2
1998      26.31          26               26.91             75.6
1999      26.64          25               27.29             75.3
2000      26.07          25               26.51             81.4
2001      26.09          25               26.77             80.2
2002      26.22          25               26.74             78.9
2003      26.68          26               27.21             79.1
2004      26.13          25               26.75             81.7
2005      26.10          25               26.99             80.3
2006      25.98          25               26.51             79.7
2007      26.15          25               26.68             79.7
2008      26.08          25               26.85             81.3
2009      26.49          26               27.07             78.0
2010      26.50          26               27.32             80.6
2011      26.63          26               27.34             78.9
2012      26.98          26               27.20             72.6
2013      26.30          26               26.72             75.3


Mean age and weighted average age dropped to the lowest of the 11-player roster era. Percentage of players under 30 is still low, but a step up over last season.



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PostPosted: 09/17/13 11:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:

Mean age and weighted average age dropped to the lowest of the 11-player roster era.


It is a league conspiracy against vets! Proof! Laughing Wink


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PostPosted: 09/17/13 8:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How much does the average age of starting-lineups, all-star teams and national teams change from the WNBA average?


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PostPosted: 09/17/13 8:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

tfan wrote:
How much does the average age of starting-lineups, all-star teams and national teams change from the WNBA average?


Starting lineups can be fluid over the course of a season. You could do it by games started, I suppose, but I'm not sure that would answer the question you're asking.

I haven't done All Star teams or national teams, but I have done All WNBA teams:

Code:
year        avg        30+      under 25

1997        28.2        4         5
1998        29.5        6         1
1999        27.3        2         4
2000        28.2        3         1
2001        27.6        3         1
2002        26.8        2         3
2003        25.1        2         7
2004        26.4        2         4
2005        28.5        4         3
2006        27.7        3         3
2007        26.7        2         2
2008        27.6        2         2
2009        28.6        3         1
2010        26.5        2         4
2011        27.5        3         2
2012        27.0        2         2



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PostPosted: 09/18/13 11:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think the numbers make it pretty clear that age 27 is, as in most sports, peak value for WNBA players -- which should be taken into account in trades and free-agent signings.

Or, to put it another way, expecting players to get better after age 27 is expecting to get really lucky, and expecting players 30 or older to not decline is like spitting into the wind.



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PostPosted: 09/18/13 1:44 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

ClayK wrote:
Or, to put it another way, expecting players to get better after age 27 is expecting to get really lucky, and expecting players 30 or older to not decline is like spitting into the wind.


....unlesssss....your name is Mama Taj! Laughing Cool



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PostPosted: 08/18/14 3:45 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Update for 2014

Code:
Year     mean age     median age    weighted average  % under 30

1997      26.51          25.5             27.22             74.2
1998      26.31          26               26.91             75.6
1999      26.64          25               27.29             75.3
2000      26.07          25               26.51             81.4
2001      26.09          25               26.77             80.2
2002      26.22          25               26.74             78.9
2003      26.68          26               27.21             79.1
2004      26.13          25               26.75             81.7
2005      26.10          25               26.99             80.3
2006      25.98          25               26.51             79.7
2007      26.15          25               26.68             79.7
2008      26.08          25               26.85             81.3
2009      26.49          26               27.07             78.0
2010      26.50          26               27.32             80.6
2011      26.63          26               27.34             78.9
2012      26.98          26               27.20             72.6
2013      26.30          26               26.72             75.3
2014      26.27          26               26.83             77.3


Other than the percentage of players under 30 returning to near historical norms, not much change from last season. Just for fun, I thought I'd run the individual teams also...



Interesting that the lottery teams are two of the three oldest and two of the three youngest.

Of course Bill "It's a young woman's game" Laimbeer has the oldest team in the Eastern conference...



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PostPosted: 08/18/14 3:53 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

So I was right. TUL is the youngest and not CHI as reported by that one article.


TUL in 2015 should get even younger if they add a 2015 lottery pick and Cambage (who just turned 23) and cut Hodges and Lacy. WNBA record for youth?

Well, maybe Plaisance would get the ax.



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PostPosted: 09/11/14 3:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Average Age of All WNBA teams

Code:
year        avg        30+      under 25

1997        28.2        4         5
1998        29.5        6         1
1999        27.3        2         4
2000        28.2        3         1
2001        27.6        3         1
2002        26.8        2         3
2003        25.1        2         7
2004        26.4        2         4
2005        28.5        4         3
2006        27.7        3         3
2007        26.7        2         2
2008        27.6        2         2
2009        28.6        3         1
2010        26.5        2         4
2011        27.5        3         2
2012        27.0        2         2
2013        27.6        3         3
2014        26.6        3         3



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PostPosted: 09/12/14 11:31 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Further proof of the athletic peak at age 27 theory ...



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PostPosted: 09/12/14 11:49 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:


The mean age is the highest in league history. The percentage of players who are under 30 is off the scales low. The weighted average dropped a bit thanks to many veteran injuries and the tankeriffic Merc.



It's interesting if you consider this together with the analyses in the two articles in the thread Boston Globe: WNBA Still Looking for an Identity.

If those writers are correct, the focus on 10 year vets reflected in these statistics is not helping the league prosper.


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PostPosted: 09/12/14 12:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

pilight wrote:
Update for 2014

Code:
Year     mean age     median age    weighted average  % under 30

1997      26.51          25.5             27.22             74.2
1998      26.31          26               26.91             75.6
1999      26.64          25               27.29             75.3
2000      26.07          25               26.51             81.4
2001      26.09          25               26.77             80.2
2002      26.22          25               26.74             78.9
2003      26.68          26               27.21             79.1
2004      26.13          25               26.75             81.7
2005      26.10          25               26.99             80.3
2006      25.98          25               26.51             79.7
2007      26.15          25               26.68             79.7
2008      26.08          25               26.85             81.3
2009      26.49          26               27.07             78.0
2010      26.50          26               27.32             80.6
2011      26.63          26               27.34             78.9
2012      26.98          26               27.20             72.6
2013      26.30          26               26.72             75.3
2014      26.27          26               26.83             77.3


Other than the percentage of players under 30 returning to near historical norms, not much change from last season. Just for fun, I thought I'd run the individual teams also...



Interesting that the lottery teams are two of the three oldest and two of the three youngest.

Of course Bill "It's a young woman's game" Laimbeer has the oldest team in the Eastern conference...


Yes but when what this calculated given the turnover that yes added an older Cash and middling aged Houston but also dumped a 40 year old DMJ and a past her prime Braxton LOL



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