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FrozenLVFan
Joined: 08 Jul 2014 Posts: 3521
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Posted: 11/08/22 12:12 am ::: |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
tfan wrote: |
I don't think Trump would beat Biden unless Biden is obviously mentally impaired at the key moments - the debates. And that might happen as I saw a clip of Biden campaigning in Pennsylvania and he didn't sound good. The words were not being articulated right. But barring that, I think Trump would get less votes now as he hasn't done anything to gain votes - the same number of people hate him - and he lost a certain amount of people that voted for him by his constant talk of a stolen election and then the January 6th riot. |
I agree with this analysis.
The Republicans' 2024 problem is that Trump's hardcore base is strong enough to power him past anyone else for the Republican nomination, but not strong enough to beat a non-corpse Biden, who will be increasingly propped up, cleaned up and backed up by his handlers and almost all social and traditional media. The Republicans' best hope for a presidential win is for Trump to swallow his ego, pride, thirst for revenge and ambition, and to voluntarily withdraw from the Republican primary. Who will bet on that? |
And is DeSantis an improvement over Trump? I would say not, because DeSantis is a hell of a lot smarter and that much more dangerous.
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22513 Location: NJ
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Posted: 11/08/22 6:51 pm ::: |
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FrozenLVFan wrote: |
GlennMacGrady wrote: |
tfan wrote: |
I don't think Trump would beat Biden unless Biden is obviously mentally impaired at the key moments - the debates. And that might happen as I saw a clip of Biden campaigning in Pennsylvania and he didn't sound good. The words were not being articulated right. But barring that, I think Trump would get less votes now as he hasn't done anything to gain votes - the same number of people hate him - and he lost a certain amount of people that voted for him by his constant talk of a stolen election and then the January 6th riot. |
I agree with this analysis.
The Republicans' 2024 problem is that Trump's hardcore base is strong enough to power him past anyone else for the Republican nomination, but not strong enough to beat a non-corpse Biden, who will be increasingly propped up, cleaned up and backed up by his handlers and almost all social and traditional media. The Republicans' best hope for a presidential win is for Trump to swallow his ego, pride, thirst for revenge and ambition, and to voluntarily withdraw from the Republican primary. Who will bet on that? |
And is DeSantis an improvement over Trump? I would say not, because DeSantis is a hell of a lot smarter and that much more dangerous. |
DeSantis is just as bad of a terror as Trump is but would beat Biden come 2024. This coming from a frequent #VoteBlue member. DeSantis would likely get back Republicans that left the party in Trump's tenure.
_________________ LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8314 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 11/08/22 7:48 pm ::: |
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FrozenLVFan wrote: |
GlennMacGrady wrote: |
tfan wrote: |
I don't think Trump would beat Biden unless Biden is obviously mentally impaired at the key moments - the debates. And that might happen as I saw a clip of Biden campaigning in Pennsylvania and he didn't sound good. The words were not being articulated right. But barring that, I think Trump would get less votes now as he hasn't done anything to gain votes - the same number of people hate him - and he lost a certain amount of people that voted for him by his constant talk of a stolen election and then the January 6th riot. |
I agree with this analysis.
The Republicans' 2024 problem is that Trump's hardcore base is strong enough to power him past anyone else for the Republican nomination, but not strong enough to beat a non-corpse Biden, who will be increasingly propped up, cleaned up and backed up by his handlers and almost all social and traditional media. The Republicans' best hope for a presidential win is for Trump to swallow his ego, pride, thirst for revenge and ambition, and to voluntarily withdraw from the Republican primary. Who will bet on that? |
And is DeSantis an improvement over Trump? |
I take it that this is mostly a rhetorical question. However, breaking it into a few different parts and addressing them, I think DeSantis as a candidate would be more likely than Trump to beat Biden or other Dems. He would probably get more votes than Trump from Independents, women, college educated, Hispanics, and even registered Democrats, while holding virtually all of Trump's base.
As a president, I see it as a mixed bag. As a much smarter traditional politician, DeSantis should be able to get along better with Congress and the so-called deep state than Trump, and thus perhaps be more effective and more liked on domestic issues.
As president for foreign policy, I'm not sure if DeSantis would be as effective. In this arena, I think Trump's complete outsider-ness and impatience with traditional government bureaucracy allowed him to think and act outside the box on foreign policy, and hence to be effective in many areas where traditional presidents have not and would not have been.
For example, Trump quickly defused Obama's stated greatest nuclear threat and fear, North Korea, and even became friendly with Little Rocket Man, Kim Jong-un. ISIS, which had been terrorizing the world for years, virtually disappeared in a few months due to Trump's targeted use of the military. Trump shamed and bullied some of our pampered allies into paying up much of their way-overdue financial commitments to NATO, thereby strengthening the defense pact even if he personally pissed off some arrogant leaders like Merkel. He emasculated and boxed in Iran as much as possible, while achieving the Abraham Accords and making other serious proposals for Middle East peace via nontraditional diplomacy. Promptly moved the American Embassy to Jerusalem, which other presidents promised but chickened out doing. I don't think anyone else running for president in 2016 could have accomplished all this so quickly, if at all.
But since one can't be an effective president if not elected, the Republicans are much more likely to get a president with policies they prefer if they nominate DeSantis (or even someone else) rather than Trump. |
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15838 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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Posted: 11/08/22 10:19 pm ::: |
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GlennMacGrady wrote: |
As president for foreign policy, I'm not sure if DeSantis would be as effective. In this arena, I think Trump's complete outsider-ness and impatience with traditional government bureaucracy allowed him to think and act outside the box on foreign policy, and hence to be effective in many areas where traditional presidents have not and would not have been.
For example, Trump quickly defused Obama's stated greatest nuclear threat and fear, North Korea, and even became friendly with Little Rocket Man, Kim Jong-un.
ISIS, which had been terrorizing the world for years, virtually disappeared in a few months due to Trump's targeted use of the military.
Trump shamed and bullied some of our pampered allies into paying up much of their way-overdue financial commitments to NATO, thereby strengthening the defense pact even if he personally pissed off some arrogant leaders like Merkel. |
Oh, my. The above represents a cautionary tale of how opinion ("I think") morphs into some large chunks of misinformation:
Many might say that Trump did nothing, essentially, to ameliorate the nuclear reality in N.Korea. Yes, he 'pacified' Rocket Man by giving him the attention he craved on the Global Stage, further expanding his/their egos. But in the end, nothing was resolved beyond where it had been.
ISIS didn't just "virtually disappear" in a few months. Yes, it was pretty much knee-capped by the early part of Trump's tenure, BUT...."Operation Inherent Resolve" - begun under Obama in 2014 - laid the years-long foundation for this program's success. 16,000+ targets destroyed, etc., were not the magical tricks of Trump. Alfred E. Neuman could have probably accomplished what 45 did, given the groundwork OBAMA had laid.
Calling Merkel "arrogant" in the same sentence as the name "Trump" is laughable. Yes, he certainly did some "bullying". And while he did exact some monetary benefit from other NATO members, he did nothing to enhance America's standing and reputation. It could be argued that what he DID accomplish in his reproach and disparagement of NATO was an appeasement of Russian interests. And don't lose sight of the fact that the US has numerous military bases across Europe, and not solely for protection of the host nations: WE benefit by extending our military might to regions far from our home shores.
Re: Desantis? To me, the primary improvement he'd represent is that, unlike Trump, he'd most likely find expert advisors AND listen to them. And whatever level of ego drives Desantis, it's nowhere near the level of toxicity that 45's ego mania manifested.
_________________ Oregon: Go Ducks!
"Inévitablement, les canards voleront"
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 06/15/23 3:04 pm ::: |
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https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1669073474696929281
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Congrats to the Vegas
@GoldenKnights
on their first Stanley Cup in just their sixth season. The first major professional franchise in such a proud American city. |
_________________ The truth is like poetry
Most people hate poetry
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 08/21/23 9:07 pm ::: |
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Addressing victims of the Maui wildfires...
“I don’t want to compare difficulties, but Jill and I have a little sense of what it’s like to lose a home,” Biden said. “I was in Washington and… lightning struck at home… I almost lost my wife, my ’67 Corvette, and my cat.”
_________________ The truth is like poetry
Most people hate poetry
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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Posted: 08/29/23 9:49 am ::: |
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"I was able to literally, not figuratively, talk Strom Thurmond into voting FOR the Civil Rights Act."
Thurmond voted against the Civil Rights Act. Biden was an unknown 21-year-old college student in Delaware at the time.
_________________ The truth is like poetry
Most people hate poetry
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009 Posts: 15838 Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 67491 Location: Where the action is
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toad455
Joined: 16 Nov 2005 Posts: 22513 Location: NJ
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