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LibWNBAFan



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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:05 pm    ::: All-Defense Teams Reply Reply with quote

All-Defense Teams: I know these will spark some debate, especially the presence of DMJ and Wauters on the first team. I tried to include players who reflect the league leading teams statistically in opponents' FG % to a reasonable extent. LA still leads in that category, and since most agree that backcourt defense has not been what has spurred them on, and DMJ usually guards a top player on the other team, that's gotta count for something. Some of these players might struggle in one form of defense, but excel in another form which makes up for it. Like, you don't want Tina Thompson out in space, but in terms of interior defense she is strong. Also, her team is very good defensively. Michelle Snow is solid close to the basket but not great in space. She is also an active help defender, and a big reason why her team is strong defensively...so in spite of her negative past rep, I included her. Moore is another example of a player who occasionally gets beaten by quicker players, but uses her size and physicality to annoy others. Also, she is one of the league's best double-teaming guards, which makes her an integral part of NY's defensive scheme. When she was out, we saw just how significant her role was in the Liberty D. Most of the others were no-brainers. Leslie has definitely lost a step, but still has enough physical ability and smarts to make the list. Not to mention how much LA's defense suffers in her absence. Lauren Jackson's DPOY last season was probably a reach, but she is still certainly a strong defender who alters the way offenses attack Seattle. I added Catchings on the benefit of her recent performance.

Others who I considered included Amber Holt, Alexis Hornbuckle, Essence Carson, Nicky Anosike, Taj McWilliams-Franklin and Vickie Johnson. It's hard with rookies because they show flashes of brilliance and flashes of inconsistency. Plus, they don't all play extended minutes. Essence is an example. She has had shutdown games this season against Nolan and Douglas, but she has also struggled with the savvy of Lawson and Whalen.
And it's hard to defend anyone in games where you spend 25-30 minutes on the bench, regardless of how good you are when you are out there.
Here it is. Fire away.

Position Player Team Distinction
G T. Penicheiro SAC 1ST TEAM
G D. Nolan DET 1ST TEAM
F K. Smith DET 1ST TEAM
F D. Milton-Jones LA 1ST TEAM
C A. Wauters SA 1ST TEAM

G T. Bevilaqua IND 2ND TEAM
G A. Beard WAS 2ND TEAM
F K. Douglas IND 2ND TEAM
F L. Jackson SEA 2ND TEAM
C L. Leslie LA 2ND TEAM

G L. Moore NY 3RD TEAM
G T. Wright SEA 3RD TEAM
F T. Catchings IND 3RD TEAM
F T. Thompson HOU 3RD TEAM
C M. Snow HOU 3RD TEAM
C T. Sutton-Brown IND 3RD TEAM


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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

4 players from Indiana Very Happy You better believe it.



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DTP



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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think Pierson and Ford are a little too underrated defensively. And if there was a third team give me Hornbuckle and Wiggins over Moore and Wright and Anosike over TSB and Snow.



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LibWNBAFan



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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:16 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yeah I considered Pierson more strongly than Ford...only because Ford struggled a good deal early in the year due to her injuries. In past seasons Ford would rightfully have been first team and has probably been somewhat underrated defensively through her career. To me Pierson is solid but less consistent than some....though I could see adding her.


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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

FIRST TEAM
G-T. Bevilaqua, IND
G-D. Nolan, DET
F-K. Douglas, IND
F-L. Jackson, SEA
C-L. Leslie, LAS

SECOND TEAM
G-T. Penicheiro, SAC
G-L. Moore, NYL
F-K. Smith, DET
F-C. Parker, LAS
C-N. Anosike, MIN

THIRD TEAM
G-A. Hornbuckle, DET
G-A. Beard, WAS
F-T. Thompson, HOU
F-T. Catchings, IND
C-A. Wauters, SAN



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Thrillrider08



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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:19 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

DTP wrote:
I think Pierson and Ford are a little too underrated defensively. And if there was a third team give me Hornbuckle and Wiggins over Moore and Wright and Anosike over TSB and Snow.


Please! TSB is 4th in blocks and top 15 in rebounding. Anosike over Snow and Hornbuckle over Moore I agree with.



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UTexRulz23



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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:24 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Toads looks pretty similar to what mine would look like.



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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thrillrider08 wrote:
DTP wrote:
I think Pierson and Ford are a little too underrated defensively. And if there was a third team give me Hornbuckle and Wiggins over Moore and Wright and Anosike over TSB and Snow.


Please! TSB is 4th in blocks and top 15 in rebounding. Anosike over Snow and Hornbuckle over Moore I agree with.

Anosike's top 15 in rebounding as well, leading the league in steals and 11th in blocks. She's played her way into the argument.


GEF34



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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

First Team
Tully Bevilaqua, Indiana Fever
Deanna Nolan, Detroit Shock
Lisa Leslie, Los Angeles Sparks
DeLisha Milton-Jones, Los Angeles Sparks
Katie Douglas, Indiana Fever

Second Team
Alexis Hornbuckle, Detroit Shock
Katie Smith, Detroit Shock
Tammy Sutton-Brown, Indiana Fever
Lauren Jackson, Seattle Storm
Candace Parker, Los Angeles Sparks


LibWNBAFan



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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Yes. With a number of really good rookies on the defensive end, there's lots of room for debate. I don't think you can go too wrong either way with Anosike or Sutton-Brown. Or with Hornbuckle and Wiggins vs. other perimeter players.


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PostPosted: 07/29/08 10:31 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

First Team:
G- Smith, Det
G- Nolan, Det
F- Douglas, Ind
F- Jackson, Sea
C- Leslie, LAS

Second Team:
G- Bevilaqua, Ind
G Hornbuckle, Det
F- Catchings, Ind
F- Ford, Det
C- Anosike, Min

Laughing



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PostPosted: 07/30/08 12:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Gee, no one from Phoenix Wink



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PostPosted: 07/30/08 12:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Chelsea Newton should be first team, IMO.

Ticha
Smith
Newton
Anosike
Leslie



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LibWNBAFan



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PostPosted: 07/30/08 12:34 am    ::: Re: All-Defense Teams Reply Reply with quote

All-Defense Teams: I know these will spark some debate, especially the presence of DMJ and Wauters on the first team. I tried to include players who reflect the league leading teams statistically in opponents' FG % to a reasonable extent. LA still leads in that category, and since most agree that backcourt defense has not been what has spurred them on, and DMJ usually guards a top player on the other team, that's gotta count for something. Some of these players might struggle in one form of defense, but excel in another form which makes up for it. Like, you don't want Tina Thompson out in space, but in terms of interior defense she is strong. Also, her team is very good defensively. Michelle Snow is solid close to the basket but not great in space. She is also an active help defender, and a big reason why her team is strong defensively...so in spite of her negative past rep, I included her. Moore is another example of a player who occasionally gets beaten by quicker players, but uses her size and physicality to annoy others. Also, she is one of the league's best double-teaming guards, which makes her an integral part of NY's defensive scheme. When she was out, we saw just how significant her role was in the Liberty D. Most of the others were no-brainers. Leslie has definitely lost a step, but still has enough physical ability and smarts to make the list. Not to mention how much LA's defense suffers in her absence. Lauren Jackson's DPOY last season was probably a reach, but she is still certainly a strong defender who alters the way offenses attack Seattle. I added Catchings on the benefit of her recent performance.

Others who I considered included Amber Holt, Alexis Hornbuckle, Essence Carson, Nicky Anosike, Taj McWilliams-Franklin and Vickie Johnson. It's hard with rookies because they show flashes of brilliance and flashes of inconsistency. Plus, they don't all play extended minutes. Essence is an example. She has had shutdown games this season against Nolan and Douglas, but she has also struggled with the savvy of Lawson and Whalen.
And it's hard to defend anyone in games where you spend 25-30 minutes on the bench, regardless of how good you are when you are out there.
Here it is. Fire away.

Position Player Team Distinction
G T. Penicheiro SAC 1ST TEAM
G D. Nolan DET 1ST TEAM
F K. Smith DET 1ST TEAM
F D. Milton-Jones LA 1ST TEAM
C A. Wauters SA 1ST TEAM

G T. Bevilaqua IND 2ND TEAM
G A. Beard WAS 2ND TEAM
F K. Douglas IND 2ND TEAM
F L. Jackson SEA 2ND TEAM
C L. Leslie LA 2ND TEAM

G L. Moore NY 3RD TEAM
G C. Newton SAC 3RD TEAM
F T. Catchings IND 3RD TEAM
F T. Thompson HOU 3RD TEAM
C M. Snow HOU 3RD TEAM
C T. Sutton-Brown IND 3RD TEAM


LibWNBAFan



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PostPosted: 07/30/08 12:35 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Edited to include Newton as third team.


p_d_swanson



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PostPosted: 07/30/08 12:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Net Defense Plus/Minus Leaders
(min. 500 Minutes Played)

+10.1 -- Nakia Sanford, Was.
+6.9 -- Chasity Melvin, Chi.
+6.4 -- Lauren Jackson, Sea.
+5.9 -- Sheryl Swoopes, Sea.
+5.8 -- Janel McCarville, N.Y.

+5.6 -- Cheryl Ford, Det.
+5.6 -- Michelle Snow, Hou.
+5.1 -- Seimone Augustus, Min.
+4.3 -- Hamchetou Maiga-Ba, Hou.
+3.7 -- Monique Currie, Was.

+3.6 -- Erin Buescher, S.A.
+3.2 -- Ticha Penicheiro, Sac.
+3.2 -- Rebekkah Brunson, Sac.
+3.2 -- Lisa Leslie, L.A.
+3.1 -- Cathrine Kraayeveld, N.Y.


luvDhoops



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PostPosted: 07/30/08 1:04 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Richyyy wrote:
Thrillrider08 wrote:
DTP wrote:
I think Pierson and Ford are a little too underrated defensively. And if there was a third team give me Hornbuckle and Wiggins over Moore and Wright and Anosike over TSB and Snow.


Please! TSB is 4th in blocks and top 15 in rebounding. Anosike over Snow and Hornbuckle over Moore I agree with.

Anosike's top 15 in rebounding as well, leading the league in steals and 11th in blocks. She's played her way into the argument.


Someone in another thread said they thought Parker should be strongly considered. I hadn't thought about it until I read this. Parker is 2nd in blocks, 15th in steals (I think) and 1st in rebounds (mostly defensive boards). I've never paid much attention to this honor in the past. Don't know what is typically looked at.



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QMcCall3



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PostPosted: 08/05/08 1:39 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There aren't any perfect defensive statistics, but here's an approach to choosing All-Defensive teams with statistics:

http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/08/olympic-break-all-defensive-teams-yield.html

Parker should definitely be considered based on her numbers:

A few surprises (to me): Sheryl Swoopes, Janel McCarville, Sancho Lyttle (honorable mention), Seimone Augustus (honorable mention), and Morenike Atunrase (honorable mention).

DPOY: Lisa Leslie



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PostPosted: 08/05/08 7:30 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Moore should be nowhere near a defensive team this year. She has been torched by almost every PG in the league.



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PostPosted: 08/05/08 8:12 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

QMcCall3 wrote:
There aren't any perfect defensive statistics, but here's an approach to choosing All-Defensive teams with statistics:

http://rethinkbball.blogspot.com/2008/08/olympic-break-all-defensive-teams-yield.html

Parker should definitely be considered based on her numbers:

A few surprises (to me): Sheryl Swoopes, Janel McCarville, Sancho Lyttle (honorable mention), Seimone Augustus (honorable mention), and Morenike Atunrase (honorable mention).

DPOY: Lisa Leslie


I wonder myself about stats being used to evaluate defense since they can be imperfect, especially with regards to whom a player guards, whether that defender requires double teams to help, and how good a help defender a player is.

All that being said, Augustus and Lyttle are definitely above average. Atunrase is a player with lots of physical skill, so I think it is fair to say she is probably good, though it is hard to evaluate a rookie playing so little. When I saw Swoopes early in the year she was awful...probably a consequence of not being in game shape. Seattle games are not televised that often so I have not seen as many of their games as I would like, but I will say that in the game against Minnesota on 7/22 Swoopes was terrific on defense. Maybe not the dominant figure she was earlier in the decade but still strong man-on-man and outstanding positionally. Augustus was 3 of 16 in that game while being guarded primarily by Swoopes and by Wright (who also is underrated defensively). So if that game was representative of Swoopes' play throughout the heart of the season, and I would gather it is, then she is a worthy candidate. Cash has also had some strong play defensively....an early season performance against Becky being particularly noteworthy. Let's face it, there's a reason Seattle's defensive numbers are so good, and there's a lot of people who contribute to their success.

Parker's also certainly good, and deserves mention as a candidate to be on these lists. Leslie is still quite good, but I think DPOY is unjust. Posts beat her one-on-one a little too often for that.

McCarville gets steals and blocks, which is not a terribly accurate reflection of her defense. She works hard, but she is only 6' 2" with short arms and not the quickest footwork. She can be overwhelmed in the post 1 on 1.

But nonetheless, it is an interesting debate. Defense is so subjective that it can be discussed at length.


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PostPosted: 08/05/08 9:37 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

luvDhoops wrote:
Richyyy wrote:
Thrillrider08 wrote:
DTP wrote:
I think Pierson and Ford are a little too underrated defensively. And if there was a third team give me Hornbuckle and Wiggins over Moore and Wright and Anosike over TSB and Snow.


Please! TSB is 4th in blocks and top 15 in rebounding. Anosike over Snow and Hornbuckle over Moore I agree with.

Anosike's top 15 in rebounding as well, leading the league in steals and 11th in blocks. She's played her way into the argument.


Someone in another thread said they thought Parker should be strongly considered. I hadn't thought about it until I read this. Parker is 2nd in blocks, 15th in steals (I think) and 1st in rebounds (mostly defensive boards). I've never paid much attention to this honor in the past. Don't know what is typically looked at.


LOL, I actually said that. I think Parker's shown she is capable of being a great defensive player, but I think she's like LJ though...at times just doesn't want to do it. Laughing



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PostPosted: 08/06/08 1:33 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

LibWNBAFan wrote:


McCarville gets steals and blocks, which is not a terribly accurate reflection of her defense. She works hard, but she is only 6' 2" with short arms and not the quickest footwork. She can be overwhelmed in the post 1 on 1.

But nonetheless, it is an interesting debate. Defense is so subjective that it can be discussed at length.


Agreed...and great points about one-on-one defense.

It would be interesting to spend some time actually tracking some of these players on defense and recording stops, adjusted shots, deflections, and shots defended. I do it occasionally, but I'll be interested to focus more on some of the centers mentioned here.

However, a lot of it depends on defensive strategy too -- LA plays a fair amount of zone (as they should) which changes the dynamics of 1on1 post defense.

Who would you say are some of the better one-on-one defenders in the post?

As of right now, I feel that Sutton-Brown plays a large role in making the Fever the best defensive team right now.



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psheehy



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PostPosted: 08/06/08 6:34 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Not surprisingly, Q's data leans towards crediting players on the statistically better defense teams better than any of the subjective lists.

Any all defensive team list for the season to date should have a strong concentration of players from Indiana, Seattle, LA and Detroit with smatterings of individual standouts from other teams.

As far as the Swoopes question...she seemed to pick her spots to play defense early in the season. She had some great lock down possessions and some old school steals, but she didn't play defense for 40 minutes. As the season has progressed she has increased her defensive efforts and seems to have figured out her role in the team defense.

Swoopes and Wright have been the Storm's best perimeter defenders, though Tanisha seems to vary from adequate to strong from game to game. As a team, they have cut 4 percentage points off their 2007 defensive field goal percentage from 43% in 2007 to 39% this season.



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PostPosted: 08/06/08 7:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

QMcCall3 wrote:
LibWNBAFan wrote:


McCarville gets steals and blocks, which is not a terribly accurate reflection of her defense. She works hard, but she is only 6' 2" with short arms and not the quickest footwork. She can be overwhelmed in the post 1 on 1.

But nonetheless, it is an interesting debate. Defense is so subjective that it can be discussed at length.


Agreed...and great points about one-on-one defense.

It would be interesting to spend some time actually tracking some of these players on defense and recording stops, adjusted shots, deflections, and shots defended. I do it occasionally, but I'll be interested to focus more on some of the centers mentioned here.

However, a lot of it depends on defensive strategy too -- LA plays a fair amount of zone (as they should) which changes the dynamics of 1on1 post defense.

Who would you say are some of the better one-on-one defenders in the post?

As of right now, I feel that Sutton-Brown plays a large role in making the Fever the best defensive team right now.


I don't guess this will be a widely agreed-upon opinion, but I think Wauters has been the best this year. From a physical standpoint, she has more upper-body strength than she has earlier in her career along with good length and pretty solid foot movement. But her positioning is also very sound, and if you look for it, you'll notice that she almost never leaves her feet due to fakes by her opponent.

Sutton-Brown is also excellent in the post. Sutton-Brown is a little more physical than Wauters but slightly easier to fake out of position and more foul-prone. She is still really good though. Taj is still one of the better ones as well. Leslie's still good and adds an element of help defense that many of the other posts do not add. Milton is still super-physical and battles for every inch in the post. A healthy Ford is consistently one of the league's best. Lauren Jackson is good, but not DPOY worthy in accordance with her award last year. Thompson is good, though her D is more about being physical than anything. If a post player has the ability to create space and shoot over Thompson then she can be beaten. Her guile and smarts generally make up for that though. Snow is better than she gets credit for. Ashja Jones is arguably having her best year defensively, at least to me. I don't recall her ever being as hard to beat in the post as she has been this year.


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PostPosted: 08/06/08 8:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

catch on the third team? did you hit your head or something?
she is currently fourth in steals per game. not bad for someone coming off a significant injury.



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PostPosted: 08/06/08 8:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

24duzitall wrote:
catch on the third team? did you hit your head or something?
she is currently fourth in steals per game. not bad for someone coming off a significant injury.


No, my head is fine. But thanks for your concern. I have talked repeatedly on this board about how Catchings smothered Christon in the outdoor game. But I also took into account the games where Catchings was still getting into game shape and not the one-on-one defender that she normally is. Hence third team. I love Catch. I thought that she should have been MVP last year when she was healthy based on her overall game. I'd be the first person (actually second, after Thrill) to elevate her if I felt she deserved it. But unlike some fans of players I try to be objective about a player's performance even if I like the player.


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PostPosted: 08/06/08 9:03 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

i looked at some of the stats before i questioned you leaving catch out...nothing unobjective about it. true, she is not up to speed. she does have some stats that are better than a few of your first teamers though-like tweety has played in 10 more games and has the same number of steals. i realize that there is more than shows up on the stat sheet.



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PostPosted: 08/06/08 10:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Following is a team-by-team breakdown of primary post defenders using plus/minus data, which is more useful when comparing players' effectiveness within a specific team than across the entire WNBA. Totals for the 3/4 types listed (Buescher, Catchings, Little, Milton-Jones) are aggregate. Perhaps one player overlooked in the discussion is Alison Bales, who leads two different teams:
Code:
                   Minutes     On    Off   Diff
Atlanta
Bales                235.9   76.8   87.0  +10.1
Feenstra             374.7   79.6   87.5   +7.8
Little               220.5   80.9   85.7   +4.8
Terry                231.5   88.0   83.9   -4.1
Lacy                 494.1   87.9   82.1   -5.8
Lovelace             258.0   89.9   83.1   -6.8

Chicago
Melvin               628.2   71.4   78.3   +6.9
Fowles               174.3   76.6   73.4   -3.2
Dupree               816.5   74.7   70.9   -3.8
Fluker               194.2   77.6   73.1   -4.5

Connecticut
Raymond              277.7   70.4   75.2   +4.8
Gruda                362.0   70.9   75.5   +4.6
Jones                768.2   74.5   72.4   -2.1
Whitmore             685.7   75.7   70.6   -5.1

Detroit
Ford                 636.5   72.2   77.8   +5.6
Pierson              546.8   73.4   75.7   +2.3
Humphrey             297.1   75.7   74.1   -1.6
Sanni                216.4   77.8   73.7   -4.1
Braxton              468.0   77.2   72.5   -4.6

Houston
Snow                 695.0   72.1   77.7   +5.6
Lyttle               440.8   72.2   75.3   +3.1
Williams             226.2   73.6   74.2   +0.6
Thompson             792.1   75.3   70.3   -5.0

Indiana
Bales                125.7   61.4   69.4   +8.0
Ngoyisa              175.2   67.8   68.6   +0.8
Sutton-Brown         736.9   68.8   67.8   -0.9
Catchings            444.7   70.0   67.4   -2.6
Hoffman              804.5   71.0   61.0   -9.9

Los Angeles
Thomas               158.7   67.6   75.2   +7.7
Leslie               855.1   73.4   76.6   +3.2
Milton-Jones         817.6   73.5   75.8   +2.3
Moore                223.0   73.5   74.3   +0.8
Parker               899.4   75.0   70.7   -4.3

Minnesota
Hayden-Johnson       212.3   73.5   78.0   +4.5
Ohlde                440.6   75.8   77.9   +2.1
Rasmussen            333.7   77.2   77.0   -0.2
Anosike              703.6   77.1   76.9   -0.3
Houston              430.5   79.3   75.6   -3.7

New York
McCarville           631.1   72.2   78.0   +5.8
Kraayeveld           687.6   73.4   76.5   +3.1
Larkins              186.9   78.5   73.5   -5.1
Jackson              495.5   78.4   70.6   -7.8

Phoenix
Willingham           686.4   88.1   90.5   +2.4
Farris               438.1   88.4   89.4   +1.0
Pringle              269.3   89.4   88.9   -0.5
T.Smith              721.7   90.6   85.8   -4.8

Sacramento
Kelly                394.0   73.2   76.6   +3.4
Brunson              707.7   74.3   77.5   +3.2
Harper               432.4   74.6   75.9   +1.2
Williams-Strong      549.9   75.8   74.9   -0.9

San Antonio
Riley                436.6   69.2   73.5   +4.3
Buescher             708.9   70.5   74.1   +3.6
Young                843.6   71.5   72.6   +1.1
Wauters              773.2   72.5   69.8   -2.7

Seattle
Jackson              693.7   68.8   75.2   +6.4
Griffith             494.9   68.6   73.0   +4.4
Robinson             192.8   74.1   70.2   -3.9
Little               221.4   74.1   70.1   -4.0
Ely                  276.3   76.6   68.9   -7.7

Washington
Sanford              621.0   69.7   79.8  +10.1
McWilliams-Franklin  862.1   73.6   74.6   +1.0
Langhorne            386.2   77.9   71.4   -6.5


LibWNBAFan



Joined: 28 May 2007
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PostPosted: 08/06/08 10:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

While interesting, the single biggest flaw in those numbers is that they do not account for pace, or number of possessions faced when certain players are playing.

Take NY for example. I think some of us do actually recognize that physical post play is something that Tiffany Jackson has to work on. However, McCarville's +5.8 is really skewed due to the pace that the Lib play when Jackson is in the game as opposed to Janel. Typically (not always, but usually) Jackson replaces Janel. Oftentimes, especially early in the season, Jackson would be in the game when the Lib would be in trapping situations, which increases the pace of the game dramatically. Chances are the Lib face more possessions per 40 minutes when Jackson is in the game as opposed to Janel. Even on the offensive end, the Lib offense executes sets with less pace when Janel is playing, which also will result in fewer defensive possessions.

Now, maybe I am not completely understanding the numbers, and possessions are also accounted for? It appears that the "off" and "on" numbers equate to average points against per 40 minutes if I am understanding correctly.

It could possibly also explain why faster pace players have some lower ratings than certain counterparts even if they are better or roughly equivalent defensive players...e.g.....Anosike vs. Hayden.....Wauters vs. Riley....Parker vs. C. Thomas....Lyttle vs. Thompson. Pace is not the only thing involved, as the presence of certain players on the court might lead to turnovers and easy baskets the other way. Players who are grouped with certain players in a rotation may also factor in. Some stats might be affected by players who play more or fewer minutes in garbage time. Nolan for instance has a minus rating according to that think bball blog. Nolan averages 34 mpg, and in many games only sits for 2-5 minutes. It's not too likely that the team improves in the few minutes that she sits in those games, so the cause of the rating is probably somewhere in the far fewer games where she played less than 30 minutes...and most of those games were blowouts. According to those numbers, Indy is a better defensive team without Catch than they are with her. I understand the rationale for using the numbers, even just to compare players within a team. But there are a number of examples where you can cite the numbers and understand that there is a deeper reason as to why they show what they show. I mean, nobody thinks that Christi Thomas is LA's best post defender. And Sanford's high rating probably has more to do with the fact that Langhorne is a sieve on the defensive end than because Sanford is so great. So, they are certainly interesting to explore, and thought provoking. They are also an indicator that one can look deeper to examine why the numbers show what they show.


QMcCall3



Joined: 27 Jun 2008
Posts: 175



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PostPosted: 08/06/08 11:07 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

LibWNBAFan wrote:
QMcCall3 wrote:
LibWNBAFan wrote:


McCarville gets steals and blocks, which is not a terribly accurate reflection of her defense. She works hard, but she is only 6' 2" with short arms and not the quickest footwork. She can be overwhelmed in the post 1 on 1.

But nonetheless, it is an interesting debate. Defense is so subjective that it can be discussed at length.


Agreed...and great points about one-on-one defense.

It would be interesting to spend some time actually tracking some of these players on defense and recording stops, adjusted shots, deflections, and shots defended. I do it occasionally, but I'll be interested to focus more on some of the centers mentioned here.

However, a lot of it depends on defensive strategy too -- LA plays a fair amount of zone (as they should) which changes the dynamics of 1on1 post defense.

Who would you say are some of the better one-on-one defenders in the post?

As of right now, I feel that Sutton-Brown plays a large role in making the Fever the best defensive team right now.


I don't guess this will be a widely agreed-upon opinion, but I think Wauters has been the best this year. From a physical standpoint, she has more upper-body strength than she has earlier in her career along with good length and pretty solid foot movement. But her positioning is also very sound, and if you look for it, you'll notice that she almost never leaves her feet due to fakes by her opponent.

Sutton-Brown is also excellent in the post. Sutton-Brown is a little more physical than Wauters but slightly easier to fake out of position and more foul-prone. She is still really good though.


I completely agree with you on Sutton-Brown -- her fouls came up as a problem when I looked at the numbers too.

I agree with you on Wauters. But with that same rationale, I'd say Wauters seems like a better all-around defender (team & 1on1) rather than the best 1on1 defender.



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QMcCall3



Joined: 27 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: 08/06/08 11:27 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

LibWNBAFan wrote:
While interesting, the single biggest flaw in those numbers is that they do not account for pace, or number of possessions faced when certain players are playing.


I'm sure p_d_swanson has a better response to your concerns, but as a start, the paper at the following link addresses some of the strengths and weaknesses of plus/minus pretty well.

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1183&highlight=plus+minus+pace

Another thread at APBRmetrics has some (NBA) work by Dan Rosenbaum that may be helpful in determining a "formula" for defensive success in the future:
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=327&highlight=plus+minus+pace

The most interesting finding to me is that players with more fouls tend to be better defenders...that does make sense conceptually, but it seems equally reasonable that players who foul less are better position defenders that don't foul (as you've said about Wauters, LibWNBAfan)...

p_d_swanson: do you know of anyone who has done adjusted plus/minus stats for the WNBA?



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"Basketball is like poetry in motion. Just comin' down the court, you got a defender in your way. You take him to the left. You take him back to the right. And he's fallin' back, and you just "J" right in his face. And then you look at him, and then you say, "What?" - Jesus Shuttlesworth Smile
p_d_swanson



Joined: 01 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: 08/06/08 11:28 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

LibWNBAFan wrote:
Chances are the Lib face more possessions per 40 minutes when Jackson is in the game as opposed to Janel. Even on the offensive end, the Lib offense executes sets with less pace when Janel is playing, which also will result in fewer defensive possessions.

The overall numbers for McCarville and Jackson mirror each other almost perfectly, making it reasonably simple to compare the effects of game pace. Assuming level efficiency, the Liberty average two percent (or roughly 1.6) more possessions per 40 minutes with Jackson:
Code:
             ---- On Floor ---   ---- On Bench ---
              Off   Def    Tot    Off   Def    Tot
McCarville   77.4  72.2  149.6   74.9  78.0  153.0
Jackson      74.2  78.4  152.6   78.6  70.6  149.2


TDAO



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: 08/06/08 11:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The studies I've seen (in the NBA, alas) haven't shown many players who actually make a difference in pace. There are a handful -- Steve Nash, for example. While per-possession numbers are preferable, per-40 minute numbers should be OK since we're comparing within teams.

The other thing to remember with a lot of these seemingly confounding defensive plus-minus numbers is that plus-minus tends to be very noisy even within an 82-game season. That goes more than double for a 34-game season, especially one with 1/4 left to play.


LibWNBAFan



Joined: 28 May 2007
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PostPosted: 08/07/08 12:44 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks to everyone for the input and for the extreme amount of effort that you all put in to put together those numbers.

This community as a whole is indeed a very unique one. In the approximate time of 14 months that I have been a member of this board I have gotten answers to countless statistical questions that I could not have gotten elsewhere. I've gotten to know some nice people as well as a few surprising behind-the-scenes people that one would never have suspected without knowing of this board. I've had a complete stranger from out-of-state offer me free tickets to a basketball game. I've seen family members of players (and I suspect coaches too, though I have no direct proof) post in support of their families. There's no other sports board quite like it.


LibWNBAFan



Joined: 28 May 2007
Posts: 4725



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PostPosted: 08/07/08 12:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

p_d_swanson wrote:
LibWNBAFan wrote:
Chances are the Lib face more possessions per 40 minutes when Jackson is in the game as opposed to Janel. Even on the offensive end, the Lib offense executes sets with less pace when Janel is playing, which also will result in fewer defensive possessions.

The overall numbers for McCarville and Jackson mirror each other almost perfectly, making it reasonably simple to compare the effects of game pace. Assuming level efficiency, the Liberty average two percent (or roughly 1.6) more possessions per 40 minutes with Jackson:
Code:
             ---- On Floor ---   ---- On Bench ---
              Off   Def    Tot    Off   Def    Tot
McCarville   77.4  72.2  149.6   74.9  78.0  153.0
Jackson      74.2  78.4  152.6   78.6  70.6  149.2


Thanks. It is funny, but I don't think fans as a whole are all that cognizant of the fact that Jackson's not a particularly good post defender. People often notice the athleticism of players first and foremost, and sometimes those attributes overshadow more tangible ones. I love Jackson, and she contributes in a bunch of ways. I myself thought earlier this year that Jackson should have replaced Kraayeveld as a starter. But the truth is that on the interior, Kraay has been far better this year than Tiff. Tiff defends well in space, and does some really good things at present otherwise, but on the interior I am most comfortable with Kraay on the defensive end. I certainly did not think I would say that at the beginning of the year, but it is undeniable now.


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