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petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
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PostPosted: 05/29/08 9:39 pm    ::: WNBA Hollinger Power Rankings Reply Reply with quote

I'm going to try to keep a running count of the Hollinger Power Rankings for the WNBA over the season. These are based on a formula by basketball statistician John Hollinger. Among the factors used to calculate a team's performance are:

a) margin of victory
b) strength of schedule
c) home vs. away games
d) performance overall vs. performance over last 10 games played

As the WNBA season is short, as the season progresses extra weight will be placed on the final ten games played as opposed to the final quarter of games played for the NBA rankings.

Note that this early in the season there will be a lot of fluctuation as teams settle down. Since less than 10 games have been played, "d)" above is not a factor. Strength of schedule will dominate the ratings with small sample sizes.

Rankings as of 5/29/2008

1 Fever 106.922
2 Comets 105.261
3 Liberty 103.873
4 Monarchs 103.460
5 Mercury 103.312
6 Dream 103.298
7 Sky 102.617
8 Lynx 101.890
9 Sparks 98.172
10 Shock 97.899
11 Mystics 97.258
12 Silver Stars 96.357
13 Sun 96.147
14 Storm 95.153

Why are the Comets ranked #2 and the Dream ranked #6? Because they're tied for the toughest schedule played, and the Comets have sucked less egregiously. Why are the Sparks, Silver Stars, Sun and Storm at or near the bottom? Because they've played the four weakest schedules so far this year.

As the season progresses, the cream will rise to the top, and the catfish will fall to the bottom.

--Pet


UTexRulz23



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PostPosted: 05/29/08 9:42 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

K, I'm a huge Comets fan, but that's some crazy shit right there!



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braveniler58



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PostPosted: 05/29/08 10:11 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Awesome, I was thinking about doing this myself but you beat me to it. Interesting that the Mercury are 0-3, yet just fifth on the list. Wonder what it would be like had we won some more?



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Shoots&Scores



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PostPosted: 05/30/08 8:34 am    ::: Cream will rise..for sure! Reply Reply with quote

Mercury at #5...only 4 more UPWARD spots to go!
Watch out the cream will definitely RISE to the TOP! Wink



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recycledcomets



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PostPosted: 05/30/08 9:40 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks for doing this . . . I just learned about Hollinger (on this board - thanks again, reb!!) and have been curious but my schedule is limited during the season . . . all those games to drive to eats up my time! I'll keep watching your updates to see if I can understand the Hollinger system better . . . thanks again, petrel!



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jfhst18



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PostPosted: 05/30/08 11:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Could you spell out your algorithm? I think you'll agree these rankings look kind of funny and it would be interesting to know the exact factor weights you are assigning.

Very interesting project...thanks for your contribution...and will look forward to following your work.


psheehy



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PostPosted: 05/30/08 11:11 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The key to know is how you are ranking strength of schedule.



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petrel



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PostPosted: 05/30/08 11:59 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The full formula is here.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Rankings-Intro&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dhollinger_john%26page%3dRankings-Intro

I'm using Hollinger's formula in the given form. I'm led to believe that Hollinger changes his formula for the NBA by giving extra weight to the last 25 percent of games as the season closes rather than the last 10 games. However, the WNBA plays fewer games and there is no need to make such an adjustment.

Strength of schedule (SOS) will be determined by the combined win-loss of opponents at the time that the rankings come out (not at the time the games are played). If a team plays another team twice, the opponent's win-loss is double-counted. As the year progresses, SOS evens out as every team gets the chance to play every other team. However, SOS will still reflect the strength of one conference over another.

For example, take the Storm, which I believes has one of the bottom four ranked strength of schedule. Looking at Storm games gives us:

Chicago 1-2
Sacramento 1-3
@Phoenix 0-3
@San Antonio 2-1

Combined W/L = 4-9, or .308 or 30.8 percent.

I believe the Storm's combined margin of victory is 1.75 points, which isn't that great for a winning team. Add it all up and it puts the Storm at the bottom.

However, I can't emphasize enough - with very few games played, expect a lot of wildness in the rankings before everyone gets games on the map and the ratings reflect reality a bit better.

--Pet


StevenHW



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PostPosted: 05/30/08 2:45 pm    ::: Re: WNBA Hollinger Power Rankings Reply Reply with quote

petrel wrote:
...Rankings as of 5/29/2008

1 Fever 106.922
2 Comets 105.261
3 Liberty 103.873
4 Monarchs 103.460
5 Mercury 103.312
6 Dream 103.298
7 Sky 102.617
8 Lynx 101.890
9 Sparks 98.172
10 Shock 97.899
11 Mystics 97.258
12 Silver Stars 96.357
13 Sun 96.147
14 Storm 95.153
[snip]...


Wow! So, I guess tonight's Comets @ Monarchs game will be much more interesting to watch than tomorrow's nationally televised Sparks @ Mystics game, eh? Razz


TDAO



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PostPosted: 05/30/08 3:25 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Certainly, some weirdness is to be expected early in the season, especially because strength of schedule depends so much on the team itself. That is, Atlanta's opponents have been prety good overall (7-5) but get really good because they've gone 4-0 against the Dream.

That said, I'm not sure about your numbers. When I plug Atlanta and Seattle, to take two extreme examples, into Hollinger's formula, I get 97.7 as a rating for the Storm and 91.9 for the Dream.

Any idea why the discrepancy?


petrel



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PostPosted: 05/30/08 3:34 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

TDAO,

No idea. I'll go ahead and recheck the spreadsheet when I rerun the numbers tonight.

--Petrel


petrel



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 12:05 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

For a few moments there, I thought that all was well with my Hollinger Power Rankings, until I found a fatal flaw...when the Sun beat the Liberty today, the Liberty moved up and the Sun moved down!

TDAO suggested that something was wrong in my rankings, but the formula was exactly as Hollinger entered it. I had to do some work to figure out where the problem was, but I found it -- it was in the definition of "strength of schedule" (SOS)

Someone had already pointed this out -- the way I was calculating SOS was by taking the percentage of opponent wins/opponent wins + losses. A team got credit for playing opponents with good winning percentages -- but the problem was that the good winning percentages of the opponents came from losing games to those same opponents. In short, teams were getting rewarded for losing by fattening up their opponent's win-loss.

So how do you define SOS? SOS, it seems, has a specific meaning as an acronym. I used the RPI formula for SOS:

SOS = 2/3 * opponent's win percentage + 1/3 * opponent's opponent's win percentage.

This formula seems to have done the trick...somewhat. The current Hollinger Power Rankings after tonight's games:

Fever 104.239
Liberty 102.496
Sparks 102.178
Lynx 102.077
Sky 101.877
Comets 101.711
Dream 100.648
Silver Stars 100.183
Mercury 100.159
Monarchs 100.045
Shock 99.451
Storm 98.749
Sun 98.475
Mystics 98.387

...and the strengths of schedules of each team. Remember that strength of schedule is an important part of the rankings.

Dream 0.652
Liberty 0.611
Sky 0.609
Fever 0.588
Mercury 0.583
Comets 0.576
Silver Stars 0.525
Monarchs 0.516
Mystics 0.479
Shock 0.469
Lynx 0.461
Sun 0.452
Storm 0.441
Sparks 0.421

(* * *)

Also as a bonus: the pythagorean projections of each team. Pythagorean projection gives a winning percentage based only on total points scored and total points against.

Fever 0.905
Sun 0.883
Lynx 0.853
Sparks 0.786
Shock 0.755
Silver Stars 0.690
Storm 0.596
Sky 0.462
Liberty 0.363
Mercury 0.291
Mystics 0.219
Comets 0.125
Monarchs 0.117
Dream 0.024


psheehy



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 12:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

math is a pain in the rear...

beware excel...sometimes you will make one tiny little typo and it cascades through five sheets of dependant formulas...it can take forever to track it down...

looks more on target now, but as TDAO points out, Hollinger's formulas are not particularly predictive early in the season. check out APBRMetrics forum for the real math/stat hardcores... a great place to get advice from the pros (hollinger and dean among others post and lurk there) on basketball number analysis and to pose new ideas.



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Coach Agler's 2014 Off Season Task List

1) Think about "what if?" he had gotten that lottery ball in 2015....
2) Remember to watch some NCAA games
3) Invest in mystical restorative ointments for hips, knees, backs and well everything.
TDAO



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: 05/31/08 2:42 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hmm ... I don't think that's it. The link you provided makes it pretty clear that Hollinger defines strength as schedule as simply the record of opponents (which is funny given the whole premise underlying the power rankings is that records are a worthless indicator and only differential should be used, something I don't exactly agree with).

Atlanta's differential is so historically bad (-17.2) that, using the formula as I have it, their SOS would have to be 1.17 (opponents winning more than 100% of their games) to produce the above-average rating you have for them.

Here is the formula as I have it:

=(((D2-0.5)/0.037)*0.67)+100+(0.67*(C2+(((F2-E2)*3.5)/(E2+F2))))

where D2 is strength of schedule
C2 is differential
E2 is home games
and F2 is road games

How does that compare to what you have?


Shoots&Scores



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 6:17 am    ::: Lol Reply Reply with quote

Petrel, my Mercury were to move UP 4 spots not DOWN! Very Happy
Thanks for taking the time/effort with this endeavor...my head hurts just looking at the formula. Shocked



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petrel



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 7:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

psheehy: yep, I too know the pains of Excel. I pray that there isn't any problem, and I'll keep hunting down the formulas and checking down the VLOOKUPS over the season.

I just signed up for the APBRmetics messageboard. Thanks for pointing me to it!


TDAO: here's what I'm getting:

You have

=(((D2-0.5)/0.037)*0.67)+100+(0.67*(C2+(((F2-E2)*3.5)/(E2+F2))))

I have:

A + B + 100 + C + D

Where

A = ((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67
B = ((SOS10 -0.5)/0.037)*0.33
C= 0.67*(Margin+((Road-Home)*3.5)/Games
D= 0.33*(Margin10 + ((Road10-Home10)*3.5)/10

So we'll take a look at my favorite team, the Dream.

SOS = 2/3 (13/17) + 1/3 (29/68) = 0.509804 + 0.142157 = 0.65196.
This is the same value of SOS10. We can talk about the true meaning of SOS later; for now we'll assume that these values are the correct ones.

Margin = -17.25, the average margin of loss for the Dream. Margin10 is the same.

Road=2 (against the Sun and Fever)
Home=2 (against the Shock and Sparks)
Road10 and Home10 are the same.
Games = 4

A = ((0.65196 - 0.5)/0.037)*0.67 = 2.75122
B = ((0.65196 - 0.5)/0.037)*0.33 = 1.35332
C= 0.67 * (-17.25 + (2-2)*3.5)/4 = -2.88398
D=0.33 * (-17.25 + (2-2)*3.5)/10 = -0.56925

2.75122 + 1.35332 + 100 - 2.88398 -0.56925 = 100.6513, which is what I have as the Dream's Hollinger rating.

There are two ways we could be getting non-matching answers:

a) We use different SOS and SOS10 ratings, or
b) IN "D", there is a factor that says "Divide by 10", when maybe it should be "divide by the mininum of current # of games played, or 10".

Looking forward to your reply on this:

--Pet


TDAO



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 1:14 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

petrel wrote:
b) IN "D", there is a factor that says "Divide by 10", when maybe it should be "divide by the mininum of current # of games played, or 10".

Yes, I think that's it. That means you're overvaluing SOS relative to differential.


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PostPosted: 05/31/08 1:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

petrel wrote:


This formula seems to have done the trick
...somewhat. The current Hollinger Power Rankings after tonight's games:

Fever 104.239
Liberty 102.496
Sparks 102.178
Lynx 102.077
Sky 101.877
Comets 101.711
Dream 100.648
Silver Stars 100.183
Mercury 100.159
Monarchs 100.045
Shock 99.451
Storm 98.749
Sun 98.475
Mystics 98.387


The Fever are still in first place - I'd say you've got it right.

Wink


petrel



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 2:06 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Okay. After making the change to divide D by the minimum of either "# of games played" or 10, we get the following results:

Fever 104.697
Sparks 103.475
Lynx 103.014
Liberty 102.372
Comets 101.625
Sky 101.556
Silver Stars 100.059
Monarchs 99.969
Dream 99.795
Mercury 99.530
Shock 99.507
Storm 98.818
Sun 98.432
Mystics 98.127


TDAO



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 3:21 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Alright, I hate to keep coming back to this, but I really think I've got it now. Somewhere along the way, you lost a set of parentheses in the SOS formula. You're dividing differential by number of games, but only the home-road discrepancy (multiplied by 3.5 points per extra home game) should be divided by games.

So you have the formula as:
C= 0.67*(Margin+((Road-Home)*3.5)/Games

but I think it should be:
C= 0.67*(Margin+(((Road-Home)*3.5)/Games))

Same with the formula for differential in the last 10 games.


petrel



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 5:02 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I think you've got it too. I applied the formula changes. This is what we get:

Sparks 112.621
Fever 111.458
Lynx 108.692
Sun 105.660
Shock 103.527
Storm 103.343
Sky 101.112
Liberty 100.005
Silver Stars 98.251
Mercury 96.867
Monarchs 95.278
Comets 94.570
Mystics 92.972
Dream 87.094


Which now matches up with expectations. Note that I've included the recent Sparks/Mystics game, which gives the Dream an SOS of 0.661. Also, I'm keeping the RPI SOS over Hollinger's definition, because I feel the RPI SOS gives less of a reward for losing games.

Thanks for proofreading this and making this work. I really appreciate it.

--Pet

P. S. My poor Dream. Sad


Shades



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 5:13 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

petrel wrote:
I think you've got it too. I applied the formula changes. This is what we get:

Sparks 112.621
Fever 111.458
Lynx 108.692
Sun 105.660
Shock 103.527
Storm 103.343
Sky 101.112
Liberty 100.005
Silver Stars 98.251
Mercury 96.867
Monarchs 95.278
Comets 94.570
Mystics 92.972
Dream 87.094


Which now matches up with expectations. Note that I've included the recent Sparks/Mystics game, which gives the Dream an SOS of 0.661. Also, I'm keeping the RPI SOS over Hollinger's definition, because I feel the RPI SOS gives less of a reward for losing games.

Thanks for proofreading this and making this work. I really appreciate it.

--Pet

P. S. My poor Dream. Sad



That looks a lot more reasonable. Laughing


petrel



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 9:35 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Hooray: First, the Hollinger Power Rankings for 5/31/2008:

Sparks 112.234
Fever 108.079
Lynx 107.595
Shock 105.972
Sun 105.518
Storm 103.098
Sky 101.251
Liberty 100.344
Silver Stars 97.859
Mercury 97.424
Monarchs 95.282
Comets 95.237
Mystics 93.164
Dream 86.863

Next, RPI Strength of Schedule

Dream 0.652
Mercury 0.636
Fever 0.618
Sky 0.614
Liberty 0.605
Comets 0.583
Monarchs 0.514
Silver Stars 0.513
Mystics 0.510
Shock 0.505
Sun 0.441
Lynx 0.439
Storm 0.433
Sparks 0.410

Finally, Pythagorean Projections for each team based on their current points scored and points against:

Sun 0.883
Lynx 0.863
Sparks 0.835
Fever 0.795
Shock 0.782
Storm 0.781
Sky 0.462
Silver Stars 0.363
Liberty 0.363
Mercury 0.234
Monarchs 0.211
Mystics 0.173
Comets 0.132
Dream 0.024


Richyyy



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 9:46 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Heh. Pythagoras currently expects the Dream to win 0.8 of a game over the course of the season. Ouch.


OldSchoolBB



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 10:00 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

petrel wrote:
Hooray: First, the Hollinger Power Rankings for 5/31/2008:

Sparks 112.234
Fever 108.079
Lynx 107.595
Shock 105.972
Sun 105.518
Storm 103.098


So how are the Shock (5-1) ranked below the Fever (3-2) when the Shock have a better record and have beaten the Fever twice?


Slovydal



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 10:29 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

OldSchoolBB wrote:


So how are the Shock (5-1) ranked below the Fever (3-2) when the Shock have a better record and have beaten the Fever twice?


The formula takes the officials into consideration.

Wink


OldSchoolBB



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PostPosted: 05/31/08 10:47 pm    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Slovydal wrote:
OldSchoolBB wrote:


So how are the Shock (5-1) ranked below the Fever (3-2) when the Shock have a better record and have beaten the Fever twice?


The formula takes the officials into consideration.

Wink


I must have missed that in the formula Laughing


petrel



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PostPosted: 06/02/08 6:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

As of the morning of 6/2/2008

Hollinger Rankings

Sparks 108.598
Fever 108.130
Lynx 107.083
Shock 105.710
Sun 105.234
Storm 100.724
Sky 100.655
Liberty 100.628
Silver Stars 98.171
Mercury 97.468
Comets 96.986
Monarchs 95.181
Mystics 92.827
Dream 87.009

RPI SOS (strength of schedule)

Dream 0.658
Mercury 0.638
Sky 0.626
Fever 0.620
Liberty 0.616
Comets 0.577
Silver Stars 0.525
Monarchs 0.510
Mystics 0.497
Shock 0.495
Sun 0.441
Lynx 0.420
Sparks 0.411
Storm 0.391

...and finally, Pythagorean projections.

Lynx 0.863
Sun 0.853
Sparks 0.835
Fever 0.795
Shock 0.782
Storm 0.754
Sky 0.444
Silver Stars 0.363
Liberty 0.363
Mercury 0.234
Monarchs 0.211
Mystics 0.173
Comets 0.168
Dream 0.024


Right now, my Dream are projected to win...one game this year.....

--Pet


WNBAfan23



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PostPosted: 06/02/08 7:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Thanks for doing these its fun to see because there is no great ratings out there for WNBA basketball such as Sagarin does for almost all major sports.


recycledcomets



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PostPosted: 06/02/08 11:00 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Razz What would I do without the math gods/goddesses?

Thanks for doing this!



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petrel



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PostPosted: 06/04/08 6:58 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

After last night's slate of games, a team from the East Coast gains and the top spots switch....

Hollinger Rankings at end of 6/3/2008

Fever 107.978
Sparks 107.540
Lynx 106.469
Shock 106.227
Sun 105.520
Liberty 102.716
Sky 99.344
Storm 98.954
Mercury 97.791
Silver Stars 97.140
Comets 96.934
Monarchs 94.475
Mystics 92.424
Dream 87.970

RPI Strength of Schedule

Dream 0.621
Fever 0.614
Sky 0.613
Liberty 0.597
Mercury 0.548
Comets 0.547
Shock 0.515
Mystics 0.485
Monarchs 0.484
Silver Stars 0.464
Sun 0.451
Lynx 0.410
Storm 0.401
Sparks 0.398

...and finally, Pythagorean projections based on points scored/points against....

Sun 0.853
Lynx 0.836
Sparks 0.811
Fever 0.795
Shock 0.782
Storm 0.622
Liberty 0.545
Sky 0.412
Mercury 0.371
Silver Stars 0.358
Comets 0.227
Monarchs 0.211
Mystics 0.159
Dream 0.043


WNBAfan23



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PostPosted: 06/04/08 8:14 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I am not overly familar with hollingers ratings are you able to use those as a predictor of future events? (once you get a nice sample size obviously which is hard in a short season)


petrel



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PostPosted: 06/04/08 8:26 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Probably the best predictor of future success is overall margin of victory. (I might post those in the future). Hollinger's ratings take victory margin into account in a big way, as well as strength of schedule, and home/away games played.

As actuaries say, "We're experts at predicting the past." The Hollinger Rankings are a useful (if sometimes controversial) tool that tries to take a whole bunch of different things into account. But in order to get a *true* predictor of future performance, you'd need to take a lot more things into account:

a) weigh recent performance more heavily
b) figure out some way to mitigate the impact of trades
c) predict how quickly a returning player can come back from injuries,

etc. Which is probably why no one has ever done it!

--Pet


petrel



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PostPosted: 06/05/08 6:50 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With the Shock going to 6-1 after last night's game, a rising tide raises all boats -- the Storm finally play an opponent without a losing record, and the Comets have now played the Shock, the Storm and the 5-0 Lynx. They are the only teams to move up after last night.

Hollinger Ratings after 6/4/08

Fever 108.531
Sparks 107.544
Lynx 106.850
Shock 106.614
Sun 105.462
Liberty 102.800
Storm 99.259
Sky 99.105
Mercury 97.618
Comets 97.031
Silver Stars 96.849
Monarchs 94.246
Mystics 92.773
Dream 88.320

RPI strength of schedule

Fever 0.634
Dream 0.634
Sky 0.604
Liberty 0.600
Comets 0.550
Mercury 0.541
Shock 0.525
Mystics 0.498
Monarchs 0.476
Silver Stars 0.454
Storm 0.449
Sun 0.449
Lynx 0.424
Sparks 0.398

And finally, Pythagorean projections

Sun 0.853
Lynx 0.836
Sparks 0.811
Shock 0.805
Fever 0.795
Liberty 0.545
Storm 0.536
Sky 0.412
Mercury 0.371
Silver Stars 0.358
Comets 0.227
Monarchs 0.211
Mystics 0.159
Dream 0.043


smenko



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Posts: 3989
Location: metro detroit


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PostPosted: 06/05/08 8:37 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Statistics are the hobgoblins of minds that use facts to make their cases about certain situations look like they don't appear to be on the outside. The Red Sox hired Bill James, who looked at stats in a way no one else had ever done. They listened to him. They applied what he was telling them and they turned themselves around.

Here is an example of James way of seeing baseball--some of which could be applied to basketball:

A Bill James Primer
Extracted from The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1988
Ballantine Books, New York
Copyright 1988 by Bill James

"What I wanted to write about... is a very basic question. Of all the studies I have done over the last 12 years, what have I learned? What is the relevance of sabermetric knowledge to the decision making process of a team? If I were employed by a major-league team, what are the basic things that I know from the research I have done which would be of use to me in helping that team?"

1. Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.
2. Talent in baseball is not normally distributed. It is a pyramid. For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average.
3. What a player hits in one ballpark may be radically different from what he would hit in another.
4. Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.
5. Players taken in the June draft coming out of college (or with at least two years of college) perform dramatically better than players drafted out of high school.
6. The chance of getting a good player with a high draft pick is substantial enough that it is clearly a disastrous strategy to give up a first round draft choice to sign a mediocre free agent. (see note #1)
7. A power pitcher has a dramatically higher expectation for future wins than does a finesse picther of the same age and ability.
8. Single season won-lost records have almost no value as an indicator of a pitcher's contribution to a team.
9. The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base.
10. A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.
11. True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum. (see note #2)
12. Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work. (see note #2)
13. Our idea of what makes a team good on artificial turf is not supported by any research.
14. When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next.
15. The platoon differential is real and virtually universal

Notes:

1. Major league teams still must surrender choices in the amateur draft in exchange for signing free agents.
2. The defensive spectrum looks like this:


[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]
with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of
the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left
end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right
to left along the spectrum successfully during their careers.


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/05/08 8:46 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

I agree. When it comes to baseball, I'm pretty much an example of James. I keep in mind, however, that these new statistics can tell us things, but it's also important to keep in mind what they don't tell us and keep in mind their weaknesses.

Every stat, even the Hollinger metric above, is an imperfect measure of something. Take points per game. It gives us a clue that a player 'might' be good, but it could also indicate that the player takes a lot of shots due to the weakness of her teammates. It says nothing about how 'efficiently' a player creates points or helps her teammates score. No stat, even the new stats, are 'be all and end all' measures of anything.

I've just signed on to the APBRmetrics message board, which is trying to change the way basketball stats are looked at. Very interesting reading.


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/07/08 8:54 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The biggest surprise after running the Hollinger ratings after last night's game was that the only movers were the Sparks (who fell three places), and the Lynx, Shock and Sun (who each moved up one space).

Statistics at end of 6/6/08

Hollinger Rankings

Fever 108.225
Lynx 107.303
Shock 107.233
Sun 105.271
Sparks 104.314
Liberty 102.600
Sky 100.808
Storm 99.925
Mercury 99.397
Silver Stars 98.049
Comets 96.840
Monarchs 95.103
Mystics 92.201
Dream 86.548

RPI Strength of Schedule

Fever 0.623
Dream 0.582
Liberty 0.565
Comets 0.544
Monarchs 0.541
Sky 0.536
Mercury 0.527
Shock 0.495
Sun 0.492
Lynx 0.480
Mystics 0.478
Storm 0.474
Silver Stars 0.440
Sparks 0.401

Pythagorean Projections

Shock 0.835
Sun 0.823
Fever 0.795
Lynx 0.792
Sparks 0.729
Liberty 0.611
Sky 0.555
Storm 0.536
Silver Stars 0.481
Mercury 0.437
Comets 0.215
Monarchs 0.166
Mystics 0.137
Dream 0.045

...and finally the newest statitistic, average margin of victory.

Margin of Victory

Shock 7.375
Sun 7.000
Lynx 6.667
Fever 5.600
Sparks 4.667
Liberty 2.000
Sky 1.000
Storm 0.625
Silver Stars -0.333
Mercury -1.333
Comets -5.857
Monarchs -7.167
Mystics -7.714
Dream -14.500


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/08/08 10:07 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

After last night's games, the Fever fall out of the Number One spot in into a virtual tie with the third place team. Furthermore, the Dream can no longer complain of the toughest schedule in the WNBA. But who can?

Hollinger Rankings

Lynx 106.921
Fever 106.336
Shock 106.335
Sun 105.163
Sparks 104.446
Liberty 102.459
Sky 102.036
Storm 101.052
Mercury 99.723
Silver Stars 98.480
Comets 96.997
Monarchs 95.090
Mystics 91.860
Dream 85.635

RPI Strength of Schedule

Liberty 0.560
Dream 0.558
Comets 0.555
Fever 0.549
Monarchs 0.540
Mercury 0.539
Shock 0.510
Storm 0.500
Sky 0.488
Sun 0.488
Lynx 0.466
Mystics 0.466
Silver Stars 0.456
Sparks 0.405

Pythagorean Projection

Sun 0.823
Fever 0.810
Lynx 0.792
Shock 0.778
Sparks 0.729
Sky 0.698
Liberty 0.611
Storm 0.583
Silver Stars 0.481
Mercury 0.437
Comets 0.202
Monarchs 0.166
Mystics 0.137
Dream 0.037

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 7.000
Lynx 6.667
Fever 6.167
Shock 5.667
Sparks 4.667
Sky 3.857
Liberty 2.000
Storm 1.444
Silver Stars -0.333
Mercury -1.333
Comets -6.250
Monarchs -7.167
Mystics -7.714
Dream -15.429


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/09/08 6:56 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

The winners and losers after last night? Then Sun tumble two spaces due to letting the Mystics get back in it and close the margin of victory (having played the Liberty twice also weakens Connecticut's SOS down to near bottom).

The Liberty take a two-spot tumble, while another team in Chicago moves up two places to take the biggest jump in the rankings....

Rankings after 6/8/08

Hollinger Rankings

Lynx 107.101
Shock 106.394
Fever 106.306
Sparks 104.368
Sky 102.510
Sun 102.476
Storm 100.884
Liberty 100.561
Mercury 99.552
Silver Stars 98.245
Monarchs 97.231
Comets 96.800
Mystics 93.085
Dream 85.824

RPI SOS

Dream 0.565
Liberty 0.550
Fever 0.548
Comets 0.548
Mercury 0.533
Monarchs 0.532
Shock 0.513
Sky 0.506
Mystics 0.499
Storm 0.494
Silver Stars 0.491
Lynx 0.469
Sun 0.467
Sparks 0.403

Pythagorean Projection

Lynx 0.816
Fever 0.810
Shock 0.778
Sun 0.752
Sparks 0.729
Sky 0.698
Storm 0.583
Liberty 0.541
Mercury 0.437
Silver Stars 0.388
Monarchs 0.236
Comets 0.202
Mystics 0.141
Dream 0.037

Average Margin of Victory

Lynx 7.429
Fever 6.167
Shock 5.667
Sun 5.125
Sparks 4.667
Sky 3.857
Storm 1.444
Liberty 0.714
Mercury -1.333
Silver Stars -2.000
Monarchs -5.143
Comets -6.250
Mystics -7.750
Dream -15.429


pookie53



Joined: 22 May 2005
Posts: 317
Location: Minnesota


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PostPosted: 06/09/08 9:17 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

How did the Sun's average margin of victory go from 7 to 5.125 even though they won by 8 points yesterday?


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/09/08 9:57 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Because, young grasshopper, I screwed up. I transposed the score on the Sun's column, crediting them with 79 points for and 87 points against, when it should have been the other way around.

Here are the corrected stats. Thanks for the catch!

--Pet

Corrected Rankings after 6/8/08

Hollinger Rankings

Lynx 107.101
Shock 106.394
Fever 106.306
Sun 104.476
Sparks 104.368
Sky 102.510
Storm 100.884
Liberty 100.561
Mercury 99.552
Silver Stars 98.245
Monarchs 97.231
Comets 96.800
Mystics 93.085
Dream 85.824

RPI Strength of Schedule

Dream 0.565
Liberty 0.550
Fever 0.548
Comets 0.548
Mercury 0.533
Monarchs 0.532
Shock 0.513
Sky 0.506
Mystics 0.499
Storm 0.494
Silver Stars 0.491
Lynx 0.469
Sun 0.467
Sparks 0.403

Pythagorean Projections

Sun 0.824
Lynx 0.816
Fever 0.810
Shock 0.778
Sparks 0.729
Sky 0.698
Storm 0.583
Liberty 0.541
Mercury 0.437
Silver Stars 0.388
Monarchs 0.236
Comets 0.202
Mystics 0.141
Dream 0.037

Average Margin of Victory

Lynx 7.429
Sun 7.125
Fever 6.167
Shock 5.667
Sparks 4.667
Sky 3.857
Storm 1.444
Liberty 0.714
Mercury -1.333
Silver Stars -2.000
Monarchs -5.143
Comets -6.250
Mystics -7.750
Dream -15.429


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/11/08 7:01 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

After last night's game, the Lynx tumble out of the #1 position in the Hollinger Power Rankings and the Sun move up a notch.

Rankings after 6/10/08

Hollinger Rankings

Fever 106.479
Shock 106.351
Sun 105.949
Lynx 105.782
Sparks 104.354
Sky 102.640
Liberty 100.884
Storm 100.853
Mercury 99.448
Silver Stars 98.171
Monarchs 97.396
Comets 96.734
Mystics 93.239
Dream 85.892

RPI Strength of Schedule

Dream 0.567
Liberty 0.562
Fever 0.555
Comets 0.546
Monarchs 0.538
Mercury 0.529
Lynx 0.515
Shock 0.511
Sky 0.510
Mystics 0.504
Storm 0.492
Sun 0.492
Silver Stars 0.488
Sparks 0.402

Pythagorean Projection

Sun 0.832
Fever 0.810
Shock 0.778
Lynx 0.750
Sparks 0.729
Sky 0.698
Storm 0.583
Liberty 0.541
Mercury 0.437
Silver Stars 0.388
Monarchs 0.236
Comets 0.202
Mystics 0.141
Dream 0.037

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 7.333
Fever 6.167
Shock 5.667
Lynx 5.375
Sparks 4.667
Sky 3.857
Storm 1.444
Liberty 0.714
Mercury -1.333
Silver Stars -2.000
Monarchs -5.143
Comets -6.250
Mystics -7.750
Dream -15.429


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/12/08 6:21 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

After last night's game, the Fever suffer the most -- falling four places -- but the loss by the Shock to LA means that Connecticut can bask in the glory of being on top of the newest Hollingers.

Rankings after 6/11/08

Hollinger Rankings

Sun 105.735
Lynx 105.592
Shock 105.527
Sparks 104.508
Fever 104.166
Sky 102.668
Storm 101.049
Liberty 100.693
Mercury 100.079
Silver Stars 99.644
Monarchs 98.040
Comets 96.623
Mystics 93.098
Dream 86.548

RPI Strength of Schedule

Mercury 0.558
Dream 0.553
Comets 0.542
Fever 0.535
Liberty 0.516
Shock 0.516
Monarchs 0.515
Sky 0.511
Lynx 0.508
Silver Stars 0.501
Mystics 0.497
Storm 0.491
Sun 0.484
Sparks 0.426

Pythagorean Projection

Sun 0.832
Lynx 0.750
Sparks 0.743
Shock 0.725
Fever 0.710
Sky 0.698
Storm 0.613
Liberty 0.563
Silver Stars 0.478
Mercury 0.405
Monarchs 0.283
Comets 0.202
Mystics 0.159
Dream 0.050

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 7.333
Lynx 5.375
Sparks 5.000
Shock 4.400
Sky 3.857
Fever 3.714
Storm 2.000
Liberty 1.125
Silver Stars -0.375
Mercury -2.000
Monarchs -4.125
Comets -6.250
Mystics -7.222
Dream -14.000


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/13/08 6:58 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Only one change in the Hollingers - the Lynx fall from their perch, and other teams move up to fill the gap. Unfortunately, one of these teams isn't Sacramento. Earlier, I credited them with an away victory against Detroit when it should have been a home victory, so the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.

Rankings after 6/11/08

Hollinger Rankings

Sun 105.679
Shock 105.554
Sparks 104.481
Lynx 104.264
Fever 104.168
Sky 102.676
Storm 101.168
Liberty 100.826
Mercury 99.944
Silver Stars 99.688
Monarchs 97.790
Comets 96.644
Mystics 93.219
Dream 86.408

RPI Strength of Schedule

Mercury 0.553
Dream 0.547
Comets 0.542
Fever 0.535
Monarchs 0.527
Liberty 0.521
Shock 0.517
Lynx 0.512
Sky 0.512
Silver Stars 0.502
Mystics 0.502
Storm 0.495
Sun 0.482
Sparks 0.425

Pythagorean Projection

Sun 0.832
Sparks 0.743
Shock 0.725
Fever 0.710
Lynx 0.708
Sky 0.698
Storm 0.613
Liberty 0.563
Silver Stars 0.478
Mercury 0.405
Monarchs 0.285
Comets 0.202
Mystics 0.159
Dream 0.050

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 7.333
Sparks 5.000
Shock 4.400
Lynx 4.333
Sky 3.857
Fever 3.714
Storm 2.000
Liberty 1.125
Silver Stars -0.375
Mercury -2.000
Monarchs -4.111
Comets -6.250
Mystics -7.222
Dream -14.000


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/14/08 5:06 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

Last night's Sparks win moves the Sun and the Sparks half a point closer to each other, which is enough to move the Sun out of first place.

The Storm become the first team to play more than 10 games this year -- and with Hollinger giving special weight to the last 10 games a team plays, the Storm get a chance to move up as well.

Rankings after 6/13/08

Hollinger Rankings

Shock 105.471
Sun 105.179
Sparks 104.939
Fever 104.485
Lynx 103.944
Storm 101.150
Sky 101.093
Liberty 100.507
Mercury 100.223
Silver Stars 100.163
Monarchs 97.616
Comets 96.751
Mystics 94.858
Dream 86.510

RPI Strength of Schedule

Mercury 0.564
Comets 0.546
Dream 0.541
Monarchs 0.521
Shock 0.514
Silver Stars 0.512
Liberty 0.509
Fever 0.504
Storm 0.503
Lynx 0.500
Mystics 0.498
Sun 0.492
Sky 0.480
Sparks 0.465

Pythagorean Ranking

Sun 0.785
Fever 0.741
Sparks 0.738
Shock 0.725
Lynx 0.708
Sky 0.636
Storm 0.578
Liberty 0.563
Silver Stars 0.513
Mercury 0.405
Monarchs 0.285
Mystics 0.205
Comets 0.202
Dream 0.054

Margin of victory

Sun 6.100
Sparks 5.000
Shock 4.400
Fever 4.375
Lynx 4.333
Sky 2.500
Storm 1.364
Liberty 1.125
Silver Stars 0.222
Mercury -2.000
Monarchs -4.111
Mystics -5.800
Comets -6.250
Dream -13.444


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/15/08 8:27 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

That team on the West Coast -- you know, the one they talk about all the time? -- manages to regain the #1 spot in the Hollingers.

Rankings after 6/14/08

Hollinger Rankings

Sparks 105.699
Shock 105.603
Sun 105.276
Fever 104.861
Lynx 103.903
Sky 100.931
Liberty 100.352
Storm 100.151
Silver Stars 99.662
Mercury 98.747
Comets 97.584
Monarchs 97.134
Mystics 94.970
Dream 86.669

RPI Strength of Schedule

Mercury 0.565
Dream 0.547
Comets 0.540
Monarchs 0.535
Fever 0.518
Liberty 0.515
Lynx 0.504
Mystics 0.503
Shock 0.500
Sun 0.495
Silver Stars 0.494
Storm 0.490
Sky 0.474
Sparks 0.470

Pythagorean Projection

Sun 0.785
Sparks 0.754
Shock 0.745
Fever 0.741
Lynx 0.686
Sky 0.636
Liberty 0.562
Storm 0.534
Silver Stars 0.513
Mercury 0.359
Monarchs 0.267
Comets 0.261
Mystics 0.205
Dream 0.054

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 6.100
Sparks 5.333
Shock 4.909
Fever 4.375
Lynx 3.800
Sky 2.500
Liberty 1.111
Storm 0.583
Silver Stars 0.222
Mercury -3.000
Monarchs -4.500
Comets -4.667
Mystics -5.800
Dream -13.444


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/16/08 7:08 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

With only one game yesterday, the Silver Stars move into the top half of the league in the newest Hollinger rankings.

Rankings after 6/15/08

Hollinger Rankings

Sparks 105.607
Shock 105.544
Sun 105.200
Lynx 103.981
Fever 103.066
Silver Stars 101.144
Sky 100.936
Liberty 100.351
Storm 100.306
Mercury 98.856
Comets 97.606
Monarchs 97.217
Mystics 94.967
Dream 86.548

RPI Strength of Schedule

Mercury 0.569
Dream 0.543
Comets 0.541
Monarchs 0.538
Fever 0.525
Liberty 0.515
Lynx 0.507
Mystics 0.502
Storm 0.499
Silver Stars 0.498
Shock 0.496
Sun 0.493
Sky 0.475
Sparks 0.467

Pythagorean Projection

Sun 0.785
Sparks 0.754
Shock 0.745
Lynx 0.686
Fever 0.662
Sky 0.636
Silver Stars 0.570
Liberty 0.562
Storm 0.534
Mercury 0.359
Monarchs 0.267
Comets 0.261
Mystics 0.205
Dream 0.054

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 6.100
Sparks 5.333
Shock 4.909
Lynx 3.800
Fever 2.778
Sky 2.500
Silver Stars 1.200
Liberty 1.111
Storm 0.583
Mercury -3.000
Monarchs -4.500
Comets -4.667
Mystics -5.800
Dream -13.444


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/17/08 6:51 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

No one moves up in the Hollinger Rankings today, but the Sun are within striking distance of the Shock and the Sparks.

Rankings after 6/16/08

Hollinger Rankings

Sparks 105.577
Shock 105.476
Sun 105.023
Lynx 104.056
Fever 103.035
Silver Stars 101.051
Sky 100.788
Liberty 100.401
Storm 99.388
Mercury 98.699
Comets 97.474
Monarchs 97.257
Mystics 94.956
Dream 87.036

RPI Strength of Schedule

Mercury 0.563
Monarchs 0.539
Dream 0.527
Fever 0.524
Storm 0.517
Liberty 0.517
Lynx 0.509
Comets 0.503
Mystics 0.502
Sun 0.495
Silver Stars 0.494
Shock 0.491
Sky 0.469
Sparks 0.466

Pythagorean Projection

Sun 0.790
Sparks 0.754
Shock 0.745
Lynx 0.686
Fever 0.662
Sky 0.636
Silver Stars 0.570
Liberty 0.562
Storm 0.500
Mercury 0.359
Comets 0.326
Monarchs 0.267
Mystics 0.205
Dream 0.061

Average Margin of Victory

Sun 6.182
Sparks 5.333
Shock 4.909
Lynx 3.800
Fever 2.778
Sky 2.500
Silver Stars 1.200
Liberty 1.111
Storm 0.000
Mercury -3.000
Comets -3.300
Monarchs -4.500
Mystics -5.800
Dream -13.000


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/19/08 10:38 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

After last night's games, the Fever and Mercury move up and their opponents similarly fall.

Rankings after 6/18/08

Hollinger Rankings

Sparks 106.645
Shock 105.530
Fever 103.746
Lynx 103.682
Silver Stars 102.652
Sun 102.388
Mercury 101.268
Sky 100.012
Storm 99.326
Liberty 99.052
Comets 97.280
Monarchs 97.032
Mystics 95.926
Dream 86.741

RPI Strength of Schedule

Mercury 0.582
Monarchs 0.531
Dream 0.523
Fever 0.520
Storm 0.515
Liberty 0.510
Lynx 0.496
Shock 0.494
Comets 0.494
Mystics 0.487
Sun 0.487
Sky 0.486
Silver Stars 0.474
Sparks 0.466

Pythagorean Projection

Sparks 0.784
Shock 0.745
Fever 0.717
Sun 0.696
Lynx 0.686
Silver Stars 0.639
Sky 0.543
Storm 0.500
Liberty 0.478
Mercury 0.473
Comets 0.321
Monarchs 0.267
Mystics 0.239
Dream 0.057

Average Margin of Victory


Sparks 6.778
Shock 4.909
Sun 3.917
Fever 3.900
Lynx 3.800
Silver Stars 2.455
Sky 0.778
Storm 0.000
Liberty -0.444
Mercury -0.556
Comets -3.364
Monarchs -4.500
Mystics -4.909
Dream -13.182


petrel



Joined: 26 May 2008
Posts: 1742
Location: Atlanta, GA


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PostPosted: 06/21/08 9:41 am    ::: Reply Reply with quote

There are only a few shuffles in the Hollinger Rankings, usually where a team ranked (n) changes place with a team ranked (n+1).

Ratings after 6/20/08

Hollinger Rankings

Sparks 105.699
Shock 105.657
Lynx 103.390
Fever 103.330
Silver Stars 102.490
Sun 101.397
Mercury 101.322
Storm 100.405
Sky 99.420
Liberty 99.247
Comets 97.239
Mystics 96.187
Monarchs 95.679
Dream 86.975

RPI Strength of Schedule

Mercury 0.567
Monarchs 0.548
Fever 0.533
Storm 0.531
Lynx 0.516
Liberty 0.513
Dream 0.510
Comets 0.501
Shock 0.495
Silver Stars 0.492
Sun 0.480
Sparks 0.479
Sky 0.479
Mystics 0.459

Pythagorean Projection

Sparks 0.757
Shock 0.741
Sun 0.696
Fever 0.661
Lynx 0.647
Silver Stars 0.637
Storm 0.533
Mercury 0.509
Sky 0.500
Liberty 0.478
Comets 0.321
Mystics 0.300
Monarchs 0.221
Dream 0.058

Average Margin of Victory

Sparks 5.364
Shock 4.917
Sun 3.615
Lynx 3.000
Fever 2.818
Silver Stars 2.417
Storm 0.571
Mercury 0.200
Sky 0.000
Liberty -0.400
Comets -3.364
Mystics -3.583
Monarchs -5.545
Dream -13.000


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