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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16361 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 02/27/06 8:19 am ::: For your consideration ... |
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Ohio State deserves a No. 1 seed.
Discuss.
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Slovydal
Joined: 17 Nov 2004 Posts: 12205 Location: Indianapolis, IN
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16361 Location: Chicago
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004 Posts: 11050 Location: Lost in D.C.
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ari20dal7
Joined: 30 Jan 2006 Posts: 178 Location: Norman, OK
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Posted: 02/27/06 9:32 am ::: |
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When I have a bit more time I'll say more, but I'd go with Rutgers over OSU for the #1. OSU deserves to be in the hat, though.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16361 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 02/27/06 9:45 am ::: |
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It just occured to me this weekend that no one has really mentioned Ohio State.
I believe that with Indiana State losing recently, the Bukceyes have the second-longest winning streak in the coutry, and only one team has lost fewer games.
If they win the B11 Tournament, I think they have to be considered a strong candidate for a No. 1. At least a strong as teams like Maryland or Rutgers.
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Alepp03
Joined: 25 Nov 2004 Posts: 1385
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Posted: 02/27/06 10:01 am ::: |
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The LSU game on TV probably left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths - Buckeye people especially. Davenport looked helpless against Fowles and no one was there to pick up much of the slack. They did not look like a top team that night, and that's the last I've seen of them.
Still, under the radar these past couple months they've managed to trot along quite steadily, not dropping anything too stupid in the Big Ten and improving significantly as a team.
OSU deserves CONSIDERATION for a 1 seed, I don't see it happening however.
To me, the 1 seeds will end up being Duke, UNC, LSU, Maryland, with the 2s being UConn, OSU, Rutgers, and Tenn -- OU is still a 3 seed and is firmly planted in that #9 spot in the country until they find a way to take out one of these 8 or one of them has a bad loss. Too bad the Big 12 didn't provide many top tier wins for them.
_________________ In a world full of people only some want to fly, isn't that crazy?
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bballjunkee212
Joined: 07 Nov 2004 Posts: 1906
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Posted: 02/27/06 10:16 am ::: |
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Not so sure I agree with saying OSU deserves a #1 seed if they win the B10 tournament.
I suppose it goes without saying that UNC, Duke and MD get the other #1 seeds?
Anyway, consider the other candidates for the last spot: LSU, winner of the SEC; and RU or UConn, champions of the BEast. Interesting that Stanford and OU are not seriously considered. But Stanford has 6 losses, 5 of which from teams they "shouldn't" have lost to. OU is a win against TTU away from running the table in the B12, but the B12 is having a "down" year.
Which brings us to the B10. Who in the B10, besides OSU, has shown the ability to win on consistent basis, against elite competition? And while OSU sports a gaudy 24-2 record, they are 1-1 against the "big dogs" (lost to LSU, beat OU), and lost a game they "shouldn't" have lost. So OSU- perhaps like OU- is arguably only the best in a weaker conference.
However, LSU played in an arguably stronger conference, and have two "quality" losses to UConn and Florida. (I don't think I could have made the assertion that the Florida loss was "quality" until this weekend when they knocked of UT.) So maybe LSU deserves the #1 seed.
RU and UConn play in the BEast, but I'm not so sure that was a stronger conference than the SEC. If memory serves, each conference has the same number of teams with losing records overall; the same number with with winning records against top 25 teams; and the same number of ranked teams. (Again, Florida: Unranked with a 5-2 record against top 25 teams. Looking for a NCAA Cinderella?) But my sense is that after the top 4 or 5 in the BEast, there was a bigger drop-off in competitiveness than in the SEC.
So I say LSU should have the remaining #1 seed.
_________________ ~Bill
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16361 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 02/27/06 10:21 am ::: |
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bballjunkee212 wrote: |
So I say LSU should have the remaining #1 seed. |
I think LSU is a lock. I can't see Maryland as a No. 1 unless they win out. Then I probably can't see Duke as one. No way one conference should -- or will -- have three.
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beknighted
Joined: 11 Nov 2004 Posts: 11050 Location: Lost in D.C.
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Posted: 02/27/06 10:47 am ::: |
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bballjunkee212 wrote: |
I suppose it goes without saying that UNC, Duke and MD get the other #1 seeds? |
I don't think it does. I think it's most likely 2 of the 3. Right now, I suspect Maryland is the odd woman out, although the ACC semifinal may be more significant than my current opinion. (And, of course, if Duke or Maryland loses in the quarters, then a #1 is unlikely.) Maryland's RPI is 8 right now, and it's likely that RU would pass the Terps if they win out - which they both probably need to do to be in the mix. If memory serves me correctly, no team with an RPI below 6 ever has gotten a #1 seed, and certainly no team with an RPI of 9 or 10 has gotten one.
BTW, I think Tennessee still is in the mix, but only with a win in the SEC tournament and some other good things happening for the Lady Vols. Even then, it might be tough.
Edited to add: Oh, and check out my latest Fun with RPI post on the ESPN board for comparisons between conferences and relative strengths at the top, middle and bottom. As of last Thursday, the Big East had more teams in the RPI top 50, RPI top 75 and RPI top 100 than any other conference, and the numbers haven't changed much since then. http://forums.espn.go.com/espn/message?messageID=19985351
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accommodatingly
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 2191 Location: Saint Paul, MN
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Posted: 02/27/06 11:43 am ::: |
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PUmatty wrote: |
bballjunkee212 wrote: |
So I say LSU should have the remaining #1 seed. |
I think LSU is a lock. I can't see Maryland as a No. 1 unless they win out. Then I probably can't see Duke as one. No way one conference should -- or will -- have three. |
I agree: the 1 seeds are UNC, LSU, either Maryland or Duke, and... somebody else, not an ACC team, and not Tennessee: the realistic candidates are Ohio State, Oklahoma, Rutgers, and UConn.
UConn would have to win tonight and win the BE tournament; Rutgers can win tonight OR win the BE tournament, as long as they don't lose to anyone other than UConn, to be in consideration for that #1.
If Rutgers wins tonight AND wins the BE tourney I think they're the fourth #1: there's nobody as good as UConn in the B12 for Oklahoma to boast about beating. (Sorry, Baylor fans.)
If, for example, Rutgers wins tonight, but loses to someone other than UConn in the BE tourney, that leaves the door very open for either OU or OSU, assuming that both teams win their conference tourneys.
In OSU's favor: no losses to "bad" teams. OU's early losses to Illinois and Michigan State look worse now than they did at the time.
In OU's favor: they haven't just won the B12, they've dominated it. OSU nearly lost to Penn State yesterday, and they lost to Purdue earlier, who lost to Indiana. Moreover the committee looks not just at records but at storylines: OU has clearly been improving, and no wonder, since they're built around a first-year.
We'll have to wait for the B12 and B10 tourneys to know.
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dtsnms
Joined: 23 Sep 2004 Posts: 18815
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Posted: 02/27/06 11:51 am ::: |
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no way does the committee make 3 ACC teams #1 seed. They may deserve it, but the committe, IMO, would not risk showing a "conference bias" to that extent. Especially when there are other teams worthy of consideration like RU, OSU, etc.
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ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 2815 Location: New York
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Posted: 02/27/06 11:51 am ::: |
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Matty, what is that picture under your username?
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CamrnCrz1974
Joined: 18 Nov 2004 Posts: 18371 Location: Phoenix
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Posted: 02/27/06 11:53 am ::: |
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If UConn beats Rutgers and wins the Big East Tournament, UConn gets one of the #1 seeds, plain and simple.
Now, how often do things turn out to be plain and simple? If Duke loses to Maryland in the semis of the ACC Tournament, does Duke still get a #1 seed? If Rutgers is upset in the Big East semis and loses to UConn tonight, what happens?
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16361 Location: Chicago
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ari20dal7
Joined: 30 Jan 2006 Posts: 178 Location: Norman, OK
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Posted: 02/27/06 11:56 am ::: |
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Don't know about the women's committee, but the Big XII got three #1 seeds in the men's bracket a few years ago. I think they would do it if they feel it's right. I also think LSU is a #1. They've looked that way the whole season in my book.
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16361 Location: Chicago
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Posted: 02/27/06 11:59 am ::: |
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ari20dal7 wrote: |
Don't know about the women's committee, but the Big XII got three #1 seeds in the men's bracket a few years ago. I think they would do it if they feel it's right. I also think LSU is a #1. They've looked that way the whole season in my book. |
Maryland's RPI is currently No. 8, not a good number for a No. 1 seed if it doesn't go up more.
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ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 2815 Location: New York
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PUmatty
Joined: 10 Nov 2004 Posts: 16361 Location: Chicago
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ucbart
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 2815 Location: New York
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Posted: 02/27/06 12:20 pm ::: |
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PUmatty wrote: |
ucbart wrote: |
PUmatty wrote: |
ucbart wrote: |
Matty, what is that picture under your username? |
A shot from Avenue Q, the Broadway show about the dirty puppets |
OIC...Last time I was in the city, I was going to see AvenueQ, but I saw the 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee instead. |
I will be there next month and am hoping to get the spelling bee. I highly recommend Ave Q if you can make it. Kind of a combination of Rent, South Park and Sesame Street. |
WellI HIGHLY recommend Spelling Bee. It is a wonderful show in a very small theater. You feel like you are right on the stage, and it is HYSTERICAL!!! Dan Fogler won a Tony for his prtrayal as William Barfee. Unfortunately though, he is no longer in the show, but the character alone makes it awesome.
Since I have seen Rent, Sesame Street and South Park and enjoy them all, I'm sure I would love it.
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GlennMacGrady
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 8231 Location: Heisenberg
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Posted: 02/27/06 1:59 pm ::: |
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I agree with the view that 3 teams seeded #1 from the ACC would be politically unacceptable, and hence won't happen.
I think there will be two teams from the ACC, and the other two teams will come from the winners of BE, SEC and B10 conference tournaments, depending on the records of those three conference winners after the smoke clears.
So, yes, I think Ohio State has an outside shot.
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Alepp03
Joined: 25 Nov 2004 Posts: 1385
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Posted: 02/27/06 4:15 pm ::: |
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UNC is a lock, no ifs, ands, or buts. At most they will enter the tournament with 2 losses, and chances are they would be to Maryland and Duke or both to Maryland.
If Duke loses to Maryland, they drop from a #1.
If Maryland loses to anyone but UNC, they will not get a #1. Duke beating Maryland will clinch a #1. If Duke and Maryland both lose to, say, BC or someone of equivalence in the tournament, Duke retains the #1, and Maryland drops to a 2.
If UNC were to drop in the first round, and Maryland beats Duke in the semis and wins the tournament, that is the only remote chance the ACC gets 3 #1s, and even then, I think Duke would drop to a 2, and UNC would stay a 1.
LSU is a #1 if they lose to Tenn or GA, if they lose to anyone else, they drop.
If Tenn wins the SEC tourney by beating LSU, they MAY be a #1, but if they win the SEC tourney without playing LSU, they will stay a step behind.
As of right now, UNC, Duke, and Maryland are all #1s (with LSU), but at least one of the 3 ACCs will lose, and they will drop because of it.
The most likely benefactor is the winner of the Big East. UConn can win, lose, or draw against Rutgers in the regular season finale, but if they win the BEast tourney, they grab a #1.
If Rutgers loses to UConn in the season finale, but wins the BEast tourney, OSU will finally receive consideration.
At this point, OSU will receive the #1 seed if they win their conference tournament, Tenn takes out LSU, and if Rutgers and UConn both have one more loss before the season is over.
Oklahoma lacks the true Top Tier Win needed to push into the #1 seed and would need an unreal amount of bad losses for teams ahead of them to have any hope of being a 1 seed.
Stanford is in the same boat, and has lost recently.
As an aside, can someone tell me why La Tech is all of a sudden ranked?
_________________ In a world full of people only some want to fly, isn't that crazy?
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bballfan2005
Joined: 22 Aug 2005 Posts: 25315 Location: Somewhere here and there
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Posted: 02/27/06 5:02 pm ::: |
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It looks as though Duke and Maryland should have little trouble getting to the semifinals of the ACC tournament. UNC, for the second year in a row, could possibly face elimination in the quarterfinals and semifinals (irregardless of which teams actually make it through). With that said, UNC will probably win the whole thing again this year.
_________________ Avatar: The King has his ring!
Mathies to LA 2013
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ripleydc
Joined: 17 Nov 2004 Posts: 4778 Location: Washington, DC
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bullsky
Joined: 04 Jun 2005 Posts: 20310
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Posted: 02/27/06 5:44 pm ::: |
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I still cant believe people arent taking Oklahoma into consideration for a #1 seed. Though the Big 12 isnt as tough as it used to be, you still must play pretty good teams on the road. They do not have just one loss, or maybe just two, they are UNDEFEATED. The only conferences that can say they are more deep than the Big 12 are the Big East and the SEC.
But on topic of discussion: sure, give OSU a number one seed. Though I dont think the Big Ten deserves it, OSU would deserve it the most. BUT I think if they are a number one seed, they will go out first of all of other three.
_________________ "Don't do something until you get it right, do it until you can't do it wrong."
- Geno Auriemma
Last edited by bullsky on 02/27/06 7:40 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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