RebKell's Junkie Boards

[GlennMacGrady]

LSU has the best center, Sylvia Fowles, and the best small forward, Seimone Augustus, in college basketball. They are the best defensive team in the country, statistically, though they commit the second fewest number of fouls in the country. They don’t have any other consistently big scorers, and the overall bench strength is thin. They don’t rely much on 3’s. Hoston may be the best 3pt shooter, but she is streaky. She is also a great defender.

How to win?

Let’s start with five ways that UConn can lose:

1. Have a slow start and fall behind early. This UConn team can’t play catch-up against fast athletes.

2. Rely on the 3pt shot. Hoston can probably substantially shut down Strother’s 3, and another of LSU’s excellent defenders can probably substantially shut down Thomas.

3. Fail to get lots of good shots in the paint. Failing to shoot in the paint will also result in very few trips to the foul line, because it is in the paint where most fouls occur.

4. Get significantly out rebounded.

5. Turn the ball over a lot.

How does UConn avoid these 5 danger scenarios? A good start would be to start a much different lineup than we have seen.

Instead, start: Houston, Hunter, Turner, Strother and Montgomery. This lineup addresses each of the danger scenarios.

1. To start fast UConn must start its most potent offensive players. This means Wolff must come out of the starting lineup. Starting her for the first five minutes of each half is a nice conceit against tomato cans, but it wastes huge point potential during the most important 10 minutes of the game. Replace her with the Instant Point Machine, Charde Houston.

2. Replace Thomas with Hunter. Thomas’s 3’s will probably be shut down anyway, and she isn’t likely to contribute much to the defense or rebounding against the tall and fast athletes of LSU. Replace her with a player who can contribute infinitely better to the all-important paint game and rebounding, Hunter. RPM can provide the second 3pt threat along with Annie, and she can probably create a 3 against pressure off a lateral move better than Mel.

3. The starting “inside” lineup of Strother, Turner and Wolff is a joke, especially against talented and tall teams. Wolff can’t score at all from inside. Strother can do so sporadically, but does it better as an occasional inversion move from the wing. The BTX is a warrior, but at 5’10” she can’t be expected to carry the paint & post move load against Fowles and Williams.

UConn must have multiple, big, real post threats consistently taking it right at Fowles & Co. on the inside. This means starting Hunter and Houston along with Barb. Then … pound it into the paint … pound it into the paint … and pound it into the paint. If those three can’t get buckets, they should get a lot of fouls. Get Fowles on the bench with foul trouble. LSU has no sub to replace her.

Getting good paint shots by the posts requires good entry passes and lobs. Swanier is affirmatively bad at half court entry passing against skilled pressure. Her minutes should be drastically curtailed. Thomas is somewhat less error prone, but she will not be missed as an entry passer. Montgomery is the best of those three. But the best entry passer by far is Ann Strother, and the next best is The BTX. Annie and Barb are the best bets to feed over the top of LSU’s guards into Charde and Brit in the low post.

4. Thomas, Swanier and even Wolff are essentially useless as rebounders. Houston and Hunter are studs. Their presence in the lineup along with The BTX will dramatically increase UConn’s offensive rebounding and put-back potential. They will also provide a much more potent defensive force (including defensive rebounds) than Wolff, Thomas or Swanier. All three can be spelled by Iron Will Crockett, so that UConn always has three bigs in the lineup.

5. Turnovers. Well, all these players will turn the ball over, and perhaps not much can be done other than for each player to take care of the ball. However, to me, this is another reason to minimize Swanier’s minutes. She is turnover prone against fast half court defensive pressure. She telegraphs passes, dribbles blindly into box canyons, forces passes, and does not have good half court vision or prediction skills in anticipating closing defenders. Her ability to push the ball fast up court is entertaining, but it rarely produces transition points because UConn doesn’t have the floor runners to accompany her. Frankly, I would spell Montgomery mostly with Thomas. Mel and Ann can do a satisfactory job of bringing the ball up court and starting the half court paint offense, which is what I am suggesting will win the game.

A basketball game is just entertainment. So is an internet thread. Feel free to entertain my theories or not … or put forth your own.

[Admiral_Needa]

Now that's what I call expert analysis

Good work Glenn. Unfortunately though, I'll be rooting for LSU

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[ThreeBall25]

That is nice and all, but do you actually think Geno will go through with any of those ideas? Esp. tinkering with the starting lineup? If anything, Crockett is in the best shape of the three and she should get the start. I love Nicole Wolff to death, but she should only be played if Augustus gets hot to shut her down on d. Geno seems to be infatuated with Mel Thomas' game (why, besides her hustle, is beyond me) and she will probably play 25+ minutes. If she actually gets off more than 2 3's I'll be shocked. I think the crowd really needs to help the Huskies out tomorrow night.

[Admiral_Needa]

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2002 WNBA Virtual GM Overall Winner
2006 WNBA Triple Threat Overall Winner
2007 NBA ESPN Fast Break Overall Winner

[bballfan2005]

If UConn can pressure/rattle LSU's point guards, they've got a good chance to win the game. LeBlanc and White have yet to be tested.

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Mathies to LA 2013

[njjosh]

I say play zone and make LSU shoot from the perimeter. LSU is 311th in Division I in 3-pointers per game. Pack the paint and make LSU take (and make) some shots from downtown.

[bullsky]

IMO Connecticuts posts will have to have the game of the season because Fowles is a flat out dominator. Both teams lack that powerful, leadership-esqe point guard. Both are dependent on the shooting of their stars (Strother, Augustus). So UCONN's bigs will have to have more of an effect on the game than Fowles because otherwise, they're pretty even.

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[icey23]

Chaney has been hot the last few games.

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WIN THE DAY

[dtsnms]

GM your points are all valid. They are not, however, based in reality.

1. Thomas is the 2nd leading scorer on this team and arguably most improved. Why would she be removed fromthe starting lineup in a NON-CONFERENCE game. Remember, this is about prestige, it's not about March.

2. Hunter has not played over 20 minutes thus far. and still didn't look right against St. John's. He won't reward her with a start yet.

3. How out of the doghouse is Charde? Would he start her over the seniors? Not likely. If Wollff comes off the bench she's lost for the game, she only is somewhat helpful when she starts. Doubt he'd change that.

4. Montgomery is a gimme, although Swanier has been the better POINT GUARD of late, with Renee at the 2.

Bottom line, I don't see Geno changing much of anything for this game. He's in conference mode now, and, while he'd like to win this game, he is not going to blow his rotation/confidence of his players on a non-conference game that is not a major rivalry yet. In other words, I'm not really optimistic about UConn winning this one.

[GlennMacGrady]

The problem with Crockett is that she is not a shooter or scorer. What she can be good at ... defense and rebounding ... is not always consistent, either. Houston and Hunter are the best bets to put up points in the paint.

I used to believe strongly in the zone-LSU theory ... until I saw LSU absolutely shred MSU's Ciampi match-up zone with ball reversals, inside screens, ping passes to the open spots, and overhead lobs to Fowles. I think Pokey expects zones and has practiced extensively for them.

Plus, UConn's zone defense has been porous and relatively ineffective against good teams this year, IMO. UConn played zone and junk (trapping) defenses against Tennessee, and in the first half against Cincinnati, and got torched. Switching to a straight-up half court man-to-man, they stifled Cincinnati in the second half. UConn also shut out St. Johns for the last 7 minutes of the game with a man-to-man. (Houston is a key player in the man defense.) That said, I would try some zone against LSU in addition to man. What I would stay away from is the awful trapping defense that leaves open outside shooters AND allows fast athletes to penetrate.

I would start this lineup in this game, a conference game, or any game. The season is almost half over. Experiments, mind games and lineup indecision must stop. Whether Charde and Brittany have ability to play long minutes, I know not. But I would rather play them from the get-go to take advantage of their obviously superior skills ... and find out.

I couldn't disagree more that Swanier is a better point guard than Montgomery. To me, Montgomery is better in every relevant category. None of the guards' numbers or apparent skills against weak teams is particularly relevant. I would agree that Montgomery is an average point guard at best.

I don't try to predict what Geno will do. I only state my opinions, analyses or perspectives.