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eyevolley4
Joined: 27 Apr 2006
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 Posted: 03/09/24 7:19 am ::: Top 16 Host Seeds |
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Those top 16 host seeds are up for grabs and chaotic finishes and injuries are going to make it interesting to see how everything lands.
There are many teams locked, I am currently stating 12:
South Carolina
Stanford
USC
UCLA
Iowa
Ohio State
UConn
Texas
LSU
Oregon State
Gonzaga
North Carolina State
Four teams are at risk:
Virginia Tech
Colorado
Indiana
Oklahoma
VT - the resume is sturdy. They are a hosting team as long as it’s clear Elizabeth Kitley will be playing. That isn’t clear, so this will be a storyline to play out. They will still be a tough out without Kitley, but not a top 16 seed. Losses to Notre Dame and Virginia don’t drop them out from the 5 slot on Feb 29th. Their ACC resume is packed with great wins. But they probably find themselves staring at a 4 seed if they don’t beat Notre Dame.
Colorado - since the last reveal they lost to Washington State and Oregon State. Oregon State was already ranked ahead of them but the WSU loss is troubling. Colorado still boasts a haul of great wins: LSU, Stanford, USC - all sure fire top 16 seeds, as well as Utah. Their recent string looks troubling, but those losses are to Oregon State twice, Itah, USC, UCLA, and WSU with all but the WSU and second OSU loss known about on the Feb 29 reveal. They are still very much in the mix.
Indiana - they don’t have the string of losses Colorado has endured, but their bulk resume doesn’t hold up the way Virginia Tech and Colorado’s do. Signature wins include Iowa and an early win over Tennessee. Not compelling, and they don’t have any more ground to make up. Their biggest risk is a good finish from a similar resume on the Big 12. Baylor and Kansas State’s resumes beat Indiana if they make it to the Finals of their tournament, giving them likely at least one more signature win over a Top 16 seed (UT or OU). It’s looking dicey for the Hoosiers.
Oklahoma - the Sooners really hang their hats on wins over UT, KSU, and Baylor. These are good wins to be sure, but as the 16 seed in the last reveal, they need to make it to the Finals of their conference tournament to stick in a hosting seed. Dropping to TCU would probably drop them out. Dropping to Baylor in the semis would make it complex. This team is still fighting for the hosting seed.
Incoming!
Notre Dame - the Irish are making the most of a favorable schedule with Virginia Tech and Louisville 2x wins boosting their resume. They have been winning games against good teams the last couple of weeks and have an energy about them that indicates they will be hard to stop. I think they have already done enough to usurp Indiana. They stack up decently against Colorado with wins of UConn, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and matching the Tennessee early win. On Feb 29, they didn’t have VT and Louisville wins to hang their hat on, so this is perhaps the best positively changed resume in the country. A loss to Virginia Tech or in the ACC Final likely don’t stop them from entering the Top 16.
In the Mix
The only two other teams that look in a position to earn a slot are the only teams with resumes that can still be boosted by beating teams in the Top 16 - Kansas State and Baylor.
There just isn’t a ton of separation between the Big 12 teams beyond UTs resume. UT could lose to Kansas and their overall resume still stands up for Top 16. Oklahoma losing directly to Baylor seems to be the most simple way for a Big 12 host to exchange though it will be interesting to see if recency or conference champs wins out if that scenario occurs. Kansas State could beat UT, but would also need to essentially win the tournament and finish above both OU and Baylor to find their way into the Top 16. It’s possible but more challenging.
If I am wagering a guess, Indiana is dropping out and Notre Dame is coming in. I will assume UT and OU hold seed in Big 12 land, holding the remainder of the Top 16 field in tact.
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Jmsdawg
Joined: 19 Feb 2024
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| Posted: 03/09/24 8:25 am ::: Top 16 |
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| I obviously agree with SC as the number 1 seed but I think Iowa deserves the second seed. LSU is my dark horse to win it all again.
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009
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| Posted: 03/11/24 9:26 pm ::: |
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In the last committee reveal, LSU was ranked right above UConn. In Creme's Bracketology, LSU is a 2 seed and UConn is a 3 seed. My guess is nothing has happened since to change this order/seeding, but of course that could be wrong. My question: What has LSU done to deserve a higher seeding/ranking than UConn?
Both teams have 5 losses.
Some NET data: UConn has the better overall ranking (2 vs. 8 ), better SOS (24 vs. 69), more Quad 1 wins (10 vs. 5), better average losses (6 vs. 22), and better average top five wins (28 vs. 29.4). LSU does have the best win between the two teams (Virginia Tech, ranked 19) but has losses to NET 45 and 48, whereas UConn's worst loss is to NET 13.
The NET data and resume assessment is corroborated by other metrics.
Some RPI data: UConn has the better overall ranking (3 vs. 15), better SOS (4 vs. 44), better average losses (7.6 vs. 26.6), and better average top five wins (23.2 vs. 30.6). UConn has the best win between the two teams (Creighton, ranked 12, twice). LSU has losses to RPI 54 and 56 while UConn's worst loss is to RPI 13.
Some Massey data: UConn has the better overall ranking (3 vs. 7), better SOS (16 vs. 27), better average losses (6.6 vs. 22), and (barely) better average top five wins (24.4 vs. 24.6). LSU again has the best win (Virginia Tech, ranked 13) but has losses to Massey 44 and 47, whereas UConn's worst loss is to Massey 12.
Some AP Poll data: Based on current AP rankings, UConn has 3 AP Top 25 wins (Louisville, Creighton twice) while LSU has 1 (Virginia Tech). Virginia Tech is ranked highest of those teams. All of UConn's losses are to AP Top 25 teams, with the lowest ranked 11; LSU has two losses to unranked teams, and a loss to AP 18.
UConn has a better ranking, a much better strength of schedule, better top-five-average wins, and much better average losses/no bad losses, of which LSU has two. What about LSU's resume makes up for those bad losses to rank/seed them ahead of UConn?
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Conway Gamecock
Joined: 23 Jan 2015
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| Posted: 03/11/24 10:21 pm ::: |
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| singinerd54 wrote: |
In the last committee reveal, LSU was ranked right above UConn. In Creme's Bracketology, LSU is a 2 seed and UConn is a 3 seed. My guess is nothing has happened since to change this order/seeding, but of course that could be wrong. My question: What has LSU done to deserve a higher seeding/ranking than UConn?
Both teams have 5 losses.
Some NET data: UConn has the better overall ranking (2 vs. 8 ), better SOS (24 vs. 69), more Quad 1 wins (10 vs. 5), better average losses (6 vs. 22), and better average top five wins (28 vs. 29.4). LSU does have the best win between the two teams (Virginia Tech, ranked 19) but has losses to NET 45 and 48, whereas UConn's worst loss is to NET 13.
The NET data and resume assessment is corroborated by other metrics.
Some RPI data: UConn has the better overall ranking (3 vs. 15), better SOS (4 vs. 44), better average losses (7.6 vs. 26.6), and better average top five wins (23.2 vs. 30.6). UConn has the best win between the two teams (Creighton, ranked 12, twice). LSU has losses to RPI 54 and 56 while UConn's worst loss is to RPI 13.
Some Massey data: UConn has the better overall ranking (3 vs. 7), better SOS (16 vs. 27), better average losses (6.6 vs. 22), and (barely) better average top five wins (24.4 vs. 24.6). LSU again has the best win (Virginia Tech, ranked 13) but has losses to Massey 44 and 47, whereas UConn's worst loss is to Massey 12.
Some AP Poll data: Based on current AP rankings, UConn has 3 AP Top 25 wins (Louisville, Creighton twice) while LSU has 1 (Virginia Tech). Virginia Tech is ranked highest of those teams. All of UConn's losses are to AP Top 25 teams, with the lowest ranked 11; LSU has two losses to unranked teams, and a loss to AP 18.
UConn has a better ranking, a much better strength of schedule, better top-five-average wins, and much better average losses/no bad losses, of which LSU has two. What about LSU's resume makes up for those bad losses to rank/seed them ahead of UConn? |
Part of it probably is LSU's non-conference and CT's conference cancel each other out, while the other part is LSU is mostly a full team while CT has been stunted all season with roster injuries, and now have one of their top two players who HAVE played this season compromised with injury as well. Bueckers may be able to play C for CT against BE foes and rebound and shot block and still lead CT to 30-pt. wins in conf. tourney play, but against the best in the nation in NCAAT play that may be asking too much.....
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 03/11/24 10:56 pm ::: |
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| Might TX lose that status IFF they lose to Iowa State tomorrow?
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009
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Location: Missouri
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| Posted: 03/11/24 11:55 pm ::: |
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| Conway Gamecock wrote: |
| Part of it probably is LSU's non-conference and CT's conference cancel each other out |
Opponent NET ranking
LSU non-conference: 16, 19, 61, 119, 171, 183, 211, 240, 262, 275, 341, 345, 347, 352 --> average of 210
UConn conference: 24, 24, 40, 40, 51, 51, 65, 65, 81, 81, 84, 84, 100, 100, 117, 117, 133, 320 --> average of 88
LSU: 2 Quad 1 games (1 loss), 1 Quad 2 game, 2 Quad 3 games, 9 Quad 4 games
UConn: 5 Quad 1 games, 7 Quad 2 games, 5 Quad 3 games, 1 Quad 4 game
How do those cancel each other out?
| Conway Gamecock wrote: |
| while the other part is LSU is mostly a full team while CT has been stunted all season with roster injuries, and now have one of their top two players who HAVE played this season compromised with injury as well. |
Edwards' injury happened after the committee reveal, and Creme already had LSU at a 2 seed/above UConn before it happened.
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Jmsdawg
Joined: 19 Feb 2024
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| Posted: 03/12/24 7:19 am ::: |
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| LSU/UConn tournament seeding: From my viewpoint LSU is much more physical than UConn and WCBB has become a physical game. I am a UConn fan and felt this year would be a return to greatness but UConn does not have a critical part for the team and that part is a physical post. UConn just can not be the favorite over the better teams and LSU can!
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pilight
Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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| Posted: 03/12/24 8:10 am ::: |
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| As much as they deny it, the committee does take previous seasons into consideration
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I ain't got a home
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Jmsdawg
Joined: 19 Feb 2024
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| Posted: 03/12/24 8:50 am ::: |
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| LSU/UConn tournament seeding: From my viewpoint LSU is much more physical than UConn and WCBB has become a physical game. I am a UConn fan and felt this year would be a return to greatness but UConn does not have a critical part for the team and that part is a physical post. UConn just can not be the favorite over the better teams and LSU can!
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Jmsdawg
Joined: 19 Feb 2024
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| Posted: 03/12/24 5:36 pm ::: |
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| Thanks, Howee. I just discovered Rebkell, have become concerned with my understanding of posting rules on the Boneyard so I wasl looking for aWCBB message board not associated with any team. Hopefully Rebkell is such a board.
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012
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| Posted: 03/12/24 7:35 pm ::: |
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| Jmsdawg wrote: |
| LSU/UConn tournament seeding: From my viewpoint LSU is much more physical than UConn and WCBB has become a physical game. I am a UConn fan and felt this year would be a return to greatness but UConn does not have a critical part for the team and that part is a physical post. UConn just can not be the favorite over the better teams and LSU can! |
And here I thought you were a Mississippi State fan. Has posting on the Boneyard flipped you?
I think almost every team is more physical than UConn, as the Huskies rely far more on finesse. But Muhl is certainly physical.
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Jmsdawg
Joined: 19 Feb 2024
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| Posted: 03/13/24 6:09 am ::: |
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| Thanks, Howee. I just discovered Rebkell, have become concerned with my understanding of posting rules on the Boneyard so I wasl looking for aWCBB message board not associated with any team. Hopefully Rebkell is such a board.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/15/24 1:16 am ::: |
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The problem with UConn as a 2 seed is that they haven't beaten a top 20 team all season. Nothing wrong with their losses but no good (for purposes of a 2 seed) means they deserve to be a 3. LSU has a similar problem as their only quality win is over Virginia Tech.
I believe that Notre Dame earned the last 2 seed with their ACC tournament win. While they had a few questionable losses they have 2 wins over Virginia Tech, a win over NC St and a win over Connecticut. Additionally they beat 5 ranked teams in their last 5 games.
These are my top 18:
South Carolina (1 seed)
Iowa (1)
Stanford (1 or 2)
USC (1 or 2)
Texas (1 or 2)
UCLA (2)
Ohio St (2)
Notre Dame (2 or 3)
LSU (2 or 3)
UConn (3)
Oregon St (3)
North Carolina St (3)
Virginia Tech (4)
Indiana (4)
Kansas St (4)
Colorado (4 or 5)
Gonzaga (4 or 5)
Oklahoma (4 or 5)
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Coyotes
Joined: 28 Jan 2018
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| Posted: 03/15/24 9:59 am ::: |
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I'd agree. I'd put both LSU and UConn on the 3 seed line. I'd argue for Notre Dame or NC State as the final #2 over either of the first two teams mentioned.
It'll be curious to see how the committee decides things. Personally, I'm just hoping that Colorado somehow holds on to a hosting position and I'm able to go to tourney games here in Boulder.
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myrtle
Joined: 02 May 2008
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| Posted: 03/15/24 2:07 pm ::: |
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| does Gonzaga still host after losing in their conference final?
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linkster
Joined: 27 Jul 2012
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| Posted: 03/15/24 7:51 pm ::: |
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Some P-5 fans have been pointing to UConn's conference for 29 years and during that time UConn has won 11 titles. The BE and the AAC are 2nd level conferences but so what. As pointed out UConn still plays one of the strongest schedules in the country. But the same old false saws still get posted.
Last year Creme had UConn on the west coast as a 3 in his last update and yet the committee made them a 2. The NCAA has encouraged teams to schedule more competitive games. The seedings is a opportunity for them to do more than "encourage".
As a UConn fan I see little difference between a 2 or 3 seed. Given the erratic play of many of the top 16 during season, once round 2 is over there will be little predictability based on a team's seeding this year.
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 03/16/24 9:34 am ::: |
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| Conway Gamecock wrote: |
Part of it probably is LSU's non-conference and CT's conference cancel each other out, while the other part is LSU is mostly a full team while CT has been stunted all season with roster injuries, and now have one of their top two players who HAVE played this season compromised with injury as well. Bueckers may be able to play C for CT against BE foes and rebound and shot block and still lead CT to 30-pt. wins in conf. tourney play, but against the best in the nation in NCAAT play that may be asking too much..... |
Clever but it doesn't work. I think it's clever to compare LSU's nonconference UConn's conference schedule, correctly noting that those of both the weaker parts of the respective schedules. But suggesting they cancel each other out is a bridge too far.
Let me group teams using Massey rankings into five ranges, the best range being very good teams in the 1 to 25 range, next being good teams in the 26 to 100 range, next being "decent" (maybe a little too generous) teams ranked 100 to 150, and finally we teams with rankings higher than 151.
Here is a table summarizing the opponents:
Range UConn LSU
Very Good 1-25 2 2
Good 26-100 12 1
Decent 100-150 6 1
Weak >151 1 10
Both UConn and LSU played two opponents in the very good range. Arguably, this is the most important range and arguably for that range, the results cancel out. However after that, it's not remotely close. UConn played 12 good teams while LSU played only one. UConn played six decent teams while LSU played only one. Finally UConn played only one team ranked bey ond 151 while LSU played 10. This does not constitute canceling out.
It is true that "LSU is mostly a full team while CT has been stunted all season with roster injuries", but that's almost completely factored into the results. That's why we are discussing whether UConn is better than LSU not discussing whether they are as good as South Carolina. Of course they are not in the same league as South Carolina that's because they've suffered substantial injuries, but you can't count the injuries twice.
"now have one of their top two players who HAVE played this season compromised with injury as well."
This is the only valid point. There are question marks about the ability of Edwards to play given the injury. Raegan Beers suffered a broken nose and that did take a toll, but that appeared to be more severe. While Edwards did not play in the final two games of the conference tournament, there were suggestions that she might have been able to play if necessary, which means that a couple weeks more and she should be close to full strength. Remember she played with the mask for an entire season and did quite well. Paige will not be asked to play center.
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 03/16/24 9:34 am ::: |
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| oops accidental triplicate, please feel free to delete
Last edited by Phil on 03/16/24 9:36 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Phil
Joined: 22 Oct 2011
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| Posted: 03/16/24 9:35 am ::: |
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| oops accidental duplicate, please feel free to delete
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Howee
Joined: 27 Nov 2009
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Location: OREGON (in my heart)
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| Posted: 03/16/24 12:36 pm ::: |
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| Phil wrote: |
Here is a table summarizing the opponents:
Range UConn LSU
Very Good 1-25 2 2
Good 26-100 12 1
Decent 100-150 6 1
Weak >151 1 10
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Help me out here....I *think* I'm understanding your overall points, but in this side-by-side comparison, which parts of whose schedule are you comparing?
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Fighting Artichoke
Joined: 12 Dec 2012
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| Posted: 03/16/24 3:54 pm ::: |
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| Howee wrote: |
| Phil wrote: |
Here is a table summarizing the opponents:
Range UConn LSU
Very Good 1-25 2 2
Good 26-100 12 1
Decent 100-150 6 1
Weak >151 1 10
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Help me out here....I *think* I'm understanding your overall points, but in this side-by-side comparison, which parts of whose schedule are you comparing? |
I was confused as well, but then I checked Massey and confirmed the argument Phil was making. Phil was comparing the conference schedule of UConn to the nonconference schedule of LSU. That's why he has UConn playing 21 games (conference regular season and BE Tournament) and LSU only playing 14 games.
And clearly the argument Phil is making has merit. But when people say the UConn's conference schedule balances out with LSU's weak OOC schedule, that argument still has some merit. Not because the SEC is a murderer's row like UConn's OOC schedule, but because there are more games against conference opponents so it should be weighted more. In support of this, Massey has UConn's SOS as 16th toughest and LSU's as 28th most difficult. That's not nearly as stark as you might expect, given the extreme weakness of LSU's nonconference schedule. UConn is doing the best scheduling they can given their membership in a weaker conference.
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009
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| Posted: 03/16/24 10:21 pm ::: |
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| calbearman76 wrote: |
The problem with UConn as a 2 seed is that they haven't beaten a top 20 team all season. Nothing wrong with their losses but no good (for purposes of a 2 seed) means they deserve to be a 3. LSU has a similar problem as their only quality win is over Virginia Tech.
I believe that Notre Dame earned the last 2 seed with their ACC tournament win. While they had a few questionable losses they have 2 wins over Virginia Tech, a win over NC St and a win over Connecticut. Additionally they beat 5 ranked teams in their last 5 games. |
| Coyotes wrote: |
| I'd agree. I'd put both LSU and UConn on the 3 seed line. I'd argue for Notre Dame or NC State as the final #2 over either of the first two teams mentioned. |
All of this is perfectly reasonable and well said. UConn and LSU lack the high-end wins of the other 2-seed candidates, and LSU has bad losses to boot.
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singinerd54
Joined: 18 Feb 2009
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| Posted: 03/16/24 10:53 pm ::: |
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| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
| But when people say the UConn's conference schedule balances out with LSU's weak OOC schedule, that argument still has some merit. Not because the SEC is a murderer's row like UConn's OOC schedule, but because there are more games against conference opponents so it should be weighted more. |
LSU's average opponent NET ranking was 118; UConn's was 72.
| Fighting Artichoke wrote: |
| In support of this, Massey has UConn's SOS as 16th toughest and LSU's as 28th most difficult. That's not nearly as stark as you might expect, given the extreme weakness of LSU's nonconference schedule. |
Keep in mind that the committee uses NET as its metric, not Massey. UConn's NET SOS is 24; LSU's is 69. The next worst SOS for a 2-seed candidate is Texas at 47, followed by NC State at 32.
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calbearman76
Joined: 02 Nov 2009
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| Posted: 03/17/24 1:38 am ::: |
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Evaluating strength of schedule is much more nuanced than an overall schedule number. A team that plays 5 teams ranked near 100 has a much easier schedule than a team that plays three top 10 teams and 2 teams ranked 300 or worse.
Using NET rankings here are the win percentages for the top 20 teams:
Vs. top 20 teams: 75-75 (50%)
Vs non top 20 Q!: 114-42 (73%)
Vs Quadrant 2: 136-8 (94%)
Vs Quadrant 3: 102-2 (98%)
Vs Quadrant 4: 91-0 (100%)
LSU was 1-3 against the top 20 and 6-2 against the rest of Quadrant 1.
UConn was 0-5 against the top 20 and 10-0 vs the rest of Q1
Notre Dame was 4-2 against the top 20 and 8-2 vs the rest of Q1. They also lost 2 games against Q2, the only team in the top 19 with more than 1 non Q1 loss.
North Carolina St was 5-4 against the top 20 and 3-2 vs the rest of Q1.
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