RebKell's Junkie Boards

[jammerbirdi]

So obviously I can't see into the future (okay, maybe that hasn't always been so obvious) but here's some things that I think are very likely to happen this election year.

I think it's ever more likely that neither Biden nor Trump will be available by November. That's about the most generic way I can put it. Don't over think it. Whatever, however. And look, typically in American politics, election year is as much about selecting the eventual candidates as it is choosing a president. And I get that. In the old days, we didn't even know until after the conventions late in the summer.

But these are different times and this is a vastly different election year than any of us have ever seen. Trump is now like a mythical American political figure. He's the leader of a movement. MAGA. He has the Republican Party base in a passionately emotional heart and soul head lock. That part of the country is ready to explode as it is right now. Look at January 6th. However you feel about it, those people and that part of the country are exponentially more agitated now than they've been before. They see this really corrupt banana republic partisan political effort (I mean, who doesn't?) by multiple legal jurisdictions and entities to remove Trump entirely from the elective process. Either by indicting and convicting him or by literally having his name taken off the ballot.

I think it very possible that these efforts will be successful to the degree where it becomes literally impossible for Trump to win due to the pile up of enough disqualifying cases and the party, maybe as late as at the convention, will then be forced to put forth another candidate at the top of their ticket. Somehow, someway.

So let's just stop right there and consider what that is going to be like in this US of A coming at some point WAY later this year.

Everything this massive base of Trump supporters believes is wrong with their party, their country and their elective processes will unfold exactly as they fear, right before their eyes. That alone is going to make for a shit show unlike anything we've ever seen. Trump is already a folk hero in much of this country. This will elevate him to political martyrdom. If MAGA can't vote for Donald Trump on election day the national turmoil this is going to create is going to make, in my opinion, every political uprising we've ever seen in this country pale in comparison. JMO.

But now think of the scramble AGAINST THOSE HEADWATERS of the Republican Party to replace Trump on the ballot. What an absolute losing proposition. Mission accomplished Democrats. It is VERY hard to see any Republican candidate other than Trump bringing out the 80 million or so voters it's going to take to win the White House.

Okay? So what about the other side? Well, I think it's even LESS likely that Joe Biden will be available as the Democratic candidate come November. I'm not even going to go into arguments why. Come on. But what about replacements? Who? For God's sake. He's the POTUS and yet he is DEEPLY unpopular and the American people believe he's not physically or mentally up to the job and they are, I believe, very disappointed in his policies and the direction of the country and all that. You can pump up, as I know some of you here will, his accomplishments but you're talking to yourselves. Out there, this is a president and a party that is in deep trouble. I'll leave it at that.

So, IMO, just like the Republican Party's problems, but not as explosively problematic, they're going to have a hell of time selling either Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsome as America's best choice for its next president. You could even trot out Michelle Obama and it's not going to sell with much of this country. Look, I hate to break it to this group, but people are REALLY starting to see through this elite duopoly that controls our country and they are, I believe, desperate for another option. Hold that thought.

But step back now and take in the entire picture. Election Year 2024. Starting right now. Tuesday January 2nd. Incumbent president running against his predecessor. Then suddenly, slowly, whatever, like a disaster movie, one by one or together in short order, both candidates fall. I've only hinted at the actual chaos that will ensue. That chaos, all of it predictable, will only further disgust the American people. The spectacle put on by both major political parties will cause people to be even MORE disenchanted with our current national politics. The people will be looking for some safe harbor in a complete shit storm of an election year meltdown by both parties.

Have I set the stage? I believe I have.

So now there's this guy out there named Kennedy who has managed to get himself on all 50 states' ballots. There he will be. The son of RFK. People will be hearing his message, which is EXACTLY what they are going to want to hear. If you haven't heard him, trust me, it's exactly what the people of this country are going to want to hear, and HAVE wanted to hear, for DECADES.

These things are all very possible to even more than mildly likely to happen this year. And I think this is how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will become our next president. And that's what I'm predicting will happen.

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Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[pilight]

Nobody cares about the Kennedy name brand anymore. That day is over.

We've heard this song and dance before. We heard it with Nader and Perot and Anderson. None of them pulled enough votes to matter. So it will be this time too. As election day grows nearer people will get scared that Trump/Biden might win and they'll start listening to the bullshit about "not wasting your vote" and support for the non-large party candidate will fade.

Biden will be the Dem candidate and somebody will be the GOP candidate and one or the other will win. The world will keep spinning and four years from now we'll be hearing a new batch of candidates saying it's end of democracy if the other side wins.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[jammerbirdi]

The scenario that I described and am predicting is completely unprecedented. Here now in the year of the election, the two major party candidates, an incumbent president and his immediate predecessor as president, both involuntarily rendered by, in Biden's case age or infirmity and in Trump's case the actions of his political opponents, no longer available for the voters to choose as their president. This alone would be something none of us have ever seen before and would set the stage for further unprecedented upheavals.

I mean, we're clearly heading for something like that on the Trump side of things. This is already very likely to be very ugly. And if MAGA can't vote for Trump because he's not on the ballot they're going to vote for Kennedy.

If both of them aren't on the ballot I believe Kennedy will win fairly easily. I don't right this minute want to get into all of the things that have gone wrong in the last seven years under both of these candidates' administrations and their political parties, but all of that is weighing against the establishment at this time. This is a country that elected a TV guy seven years ago. It remains vastly misunderstood and willfully misrepresented as to why that happened. But here it is. People were just that desperate for someone else. An outsider. Someone who was telling them what they wanted to hear as opposed to someone telling them the same old shit.

This country is on the brink right now. People are already scared. If you had a clean election without RFK Jr. in it Trump would likely win again. It would be very close. The Democratic Party is scaring the hell out of so many Americans. No matter who is running for either of the major parties the most important collection of letters on the ballot won't be Kennedy or Trump or Biden or anyone else's name. It will be the word Independent. And that word will be sitting right next to Bobby Kennedy's name. Even with Biden and Trump in the race a Kennedy win is possible. But if you remove Trump or both Trump and Biden I think he's going to the next president.

But the context of this era now is so bloody different than anything we've ever seen with the exception of what the climate must have been like leading up to the Civil War. This is country on the brink. And, as I said, people really are waking up and seeing through their government, the relationship between the mainstream media and their government, the donors who call the shots, etc. LIKE NEVER BEFORE. The election of Donald Trump in 2016 is all the proof anyone should need of that this is the case. But now more and more Americans are there. It's a trend and it's going to continue for the rest of most of our lives.

The people of this country are attempting to take it back from those who control it. I WOULD agree that it remains doubtful as to whether they are actually able to do so. But the only thing that will stop them is undemocratic authoritarianism as realized by the duopoly, its donors, and the vast landscape of NGOs that employ the elite political class that lives around DC and the other coastal regions of the country. They are already using authoritarian and even fascist tactics to smother free speech on social media etc. and they are NEVER going to stop. If we haven't already lost that battle then I would be shocked. Whole 'nuther subject.

As far as no one caring about the Kennedy name any more. I don't think that's true at all. I'm sure you're aware of the poll that shows him beating both Trump and Biden with under 40 voters. I would say that's mostly name recognition. So he's already proving that concern to be invalid. But I would suggest, very strongly, that anyone who hears him speak and listens to his incredibly polished and timely message on a vast array of issues is going to be an instant convert.

_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[jammerbirdi]

Aren't we a buggy little message board these days.

_________________
Every woman who has ever been presented with a career/sex quid pro quo in the entertainment industry should come forward and simply say, “Me, too.” - jammer The New York Times 10/10/17

[Stonington_QB]

It's not gonna happen with Kennedy. And he won't pull from Trump voters either because Trump will be on the ballot. For reasons we have covered before on this board.

[jammerbirdi]

[Stonington_QB]

[Hawkeye]

Colorado and Maine aren't going to swing the election. Do I think Trump should be ineligible because of the 14th? Yes. Will he? Most likely not. That said, he might be off of the ballot in Colorado and Maine, but those states don't have enough votes to move the needle. Now, if Trump were thrown off in say, Pennsylvania, or Michigan, or Ohio, THAT would be a story.

Kennedy is not going to do anything. Yeah, he's on the ballot, but when even his own family is running away from him that's telling. Democrats need to come out and vote Biden/Harris. Biden may be old, but then again--Trump isn't much younger than him--but no one is talking about Trump's advanced age. Biden has overseen good things for the country and economy, but when we were so far down in the toilet when he took over, it's hard for the casual observers to see it.

I'll be voting for Biden and expecting him to win a 2nd term.

[pilight]

There's been more talk in recent weeks about Trump's age. He almost as prone to misspeak as Biden.

_________________
I'm a lonely frog
I ain't got a home

[toad455]

If Dems didn't want Biden as the candidate, they should have spoken out months ago. We're currently ten months away from the election and I doubt the DNC will have a different nominee that isn't Biden.

Part of me is shocked that the GOP is (mostly) backing Trump. I think if anyone else is the GOP nominee (**Nikki Haley**), it would be a guaranteed victory for Republicans.

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LET'S GO LIBERTY!!!!!!

Twitter: @TBRBWAY

[scullyfu]

[toad455]

[Luuuc]

That's quite a prediction to kick the thread off with.

I'm watching from afar with a lot of interest. Partly because 🍿 and also of course because your country is still kind of a big deal in the global scene.
And I have to say you're kinda scaring me lately. No civil wars please!

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Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.

[jammerbirdi]

[jammerbirdi]

[jammerbirdi]

[jammerbirdi]

[GlennMacGrady]

Jammer, I don't buy your scenario for the Repubs. If Trump isn't on the ticket for some reason, it will be DeSantis or Haley. Trump's base will overwhelming vote for either of them rather than a Democrat scion like Kennedy, and either has a small chance to beat Biden.

Probably a better chance than Trump, who I think would lose a close one to Biden.

My firmest prediction is that the 14th amendment shtick won't work to keep Trump off any state ballot.

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http://www.youtube.com/MagicBusBasketball

[Shades]

[pilight]

[Shades]

[pilight]

[GlennMacGrady]

[Howee]

[Luuuc]

Just playing devil's advocate on that, I don't think the math is that simple.
It seems to me from afar that a significant factor in US elections is how many people actually cast a vote, since doing so is voluntary (and in many cases, also inconvenient). Any type of "movement" that gets one side voting could have quite an impact.

Secondly, a margin of X million can mean very little or even literally nothing for the final outcome, depending on how those extra votes are distributed.

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Thanks for calling. I wait all night for calls like these.